全球发展中心-世界银行教育贷款的演变：1998-2022（英）-2024.3_市场营销策划_2024.docx

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1、CGDCENTERFOPG1.OBA1.DEVE1.OPMENTTheEvolutionofWorldBank1.endingforEducation:1998-2022BiniamBedassoandJustinSandefurAbstractIn2011,theWorldBanksneweducationstrategystressedtheneedtoshiftfocusfromschooling(accessorenrollment)tolearning(testscores),andspecicallytowardsfoundationalskillsacquiredinprimar

2、yschool.Butthisshiftisnotalwayseasytoseeintheactuallendingdata.Codingnewdetailson25yearsofWorldBankeducationloansandgrants,wefindadeclineintheshareoffinancingforprimaryschooloverthewholeperiod,andnoapparentincreaseintheshareofprojectstargeting“qualityorlearningasopposedto“accesssince2011.Incontrast,

3、therehasbeengradualbutsteadygrowthinprojectstargetingearlychildhoodeducation.Thesepattternsappeartoreflectbothsupplyanddemandsidefactors.Onthedemandside,asprimaryenrollmentincreases,countriesshifttheirborrowingtowardearlychildhoodeducation.Onthesupplyside,theWorldBankissignificantlybetteratdeliverin

4、gearly-childhoodeducationprogramscomparedtoprojectsfocusedonraisingtestscores,asjudgedbyindependentevaluationscores.EvidenceonthelongtermlearninggainsfrompreschoolsuggestthismaybeamorefeasiblestrategyfortheWorldBanktoachieveitsgoals.WORKINGPAPER685MARCH2024TheEvolutionofWorldBank1.endingforEducation

5、:1998-2022BiniamBedassoandJustinSandefurCenterforGlobalDevelopmentBiniamBedassoandJustinSandefur.2024.uTheEvolutionofWorldBank1.endingforEducation：1998-20227CGDWorkingPaper68E.Washington,DC:CenterfbrGlobalDevelopment.https:/www.cgdev.org/publication/evolution-world-bank-lending-educatton-1998-2022We

6、gratefullyacknowledgeexcellentresearchassistancefromOluwakemiOyewande.TheCenterforGlobalDevelopmentisgratefulforcontributionsfromtheBill&MelindaGatesFoundationinsupportofthisvvork.CENTERFORG1.OBA1.DEVE1.OPMENT20551.Street,NWFifthFloorWashington,DC200361AbbeyGardensGreatCollegeStreet1.ondonSWlP3SEwww

7、.cgdev.orgCenterforGlobalDevelopment.2024.TheCenterforGlobalDevelopmentworkstoreduceglobalpovertyandimprovelivesthroughinnovativeeconomicresearchthatdrivesbetterpolicyandpracticebytheworldzstopdecisionmakers.UseanddisseminationofthisWorkingPaperisencouraged;however,reproducedcopiesmaynotbeusedforcom

8、mercialpurposes.FurtherusageispermittedunderthetermsoftheCreativeCommonsAttribution-NonCommerdaI4.0International1.icense.TheviewsexpressedinCGDWorkingPapersarethoseoftheauthorsandshouldnotbeattributedtotheboardofdirectors,fundersoftheCenterforGlobalDevelopment,ortheauthors*respectiveorganizations.Co

9、ntents1. Introduction12. Aquartercenturyofexpansionandoscillatingpriorities43. Reachinghigheroryounge11whatdocountriesborrowforastheyapproachuniversalprimaryenrollment?94. Betteratexpandingaccessforyoungerchildrenthanimprovinglearningforolderones125. Acloserlookatspecificinvestmentsinearlychildhoode

10、ducationandlearningoutcomesprojects176. Whatisinaprojectmaydependonwhohaspreparedit197. Conclusion21References23Appendix24Appendix 1: Methodologicalnote24Appendix 2: Cross-laggedpanelanalysis28Appendix 3: Fullregressionresults(section4)29Figures1. WorldBankseducationfinancingexpandedsignificantlyove

11、rthepasttwoandahalfdecades42. Theshareoffinancingforprimaryeducationhasdeclinedwhilethesharesofothersub-sectorshavefluctuated53. ExpandingaccesshasbeenthedominantobjectiveofWorldBankseducationfinancingbetween1998and202264. Theshareofprojectstargetingqualityorlearningasopposedtoaccess”showsnocleartre

12、ndoverthemediumterm75. Explicitfocusonlearningoutcomesoftenimpliesmoreprojectactivitiesinvolvingassessments,teachersandcurriculum86. Interventionstargetedatunderrepresentedgroupsandwomenincreaseddramaticallywhileactivitiesenhancingwellbeinginschoolstagnated97. Projectstargetingoutcomesgenerallyrecei

13、velowerperformancescoresthanprojectstargetingoutputs138. Projectswithanexplicitfocusonlearningoutcomesaremostlikelytoberatedasunsuccessful149. ECEprojectsaretheonlycategorywithasignificantlyhigherprobabilityofsuccessthanprimaryeducationprojects1610. Teachersandinclusiondominatethelistofmostcommonact

14、ivitiesfinancedthroughECEprojects1811. Assessmentsandcurriculumreformareprominentamongactivitiesfinancedthroughprojectstargetinglearningoutcomes19Tables1. ExpandingaccesstoprimaryschoolingisassociatedwithadeclineinborrowingforprimaryeducationandanincreaseinborrowingforECEandsecondaryeducation102. Id

15、entityoftheWorldBankTask-Team1.eadercanexplainthecompositionofeducationprojectsaswellorbetterthanthecountrytheprojectsarelocatedin20A1.Choiceofprojectsubsectorasafunctionpreviouseducationprojectcyclesinthesamecountry28A2.Projectperformancebyprojectobjectives(marginaleffectsbasedonorderedprobitregres

16、sionsusing4-scaleoutcomerating)29A3.Projectperformancebyprojectobjectives(marginaleffectsbasedonbinaryprobitregressionsusingbinaryoutcomerating)30A4.Projectperformancebysubsector(marginaleffectsbasedonbinaryprobitregressionsusingbinaryoutcomerating)311. IntroductionOverthepasttwodecades,asschoolenro

17、llmentsandeducationexpendituresinthedevelopingworldhavesteadilyincreased,therelativeimportanceofWorldBanklendingforeducationhasdeclined,atleastindollarterms.Theinstitutionseducationportfoliogrewroughlyfour-foldfrom1999to2022,totaling$73billioninsupportforeducationprojectsin160countriesand25regionals

18、tates(WorldBank,2023).Butthishasnotkeptpacewithpublicspendingoneducationinlow-andmiddle-incomecountries,whichgrewaboutseven-foldoverthesameperiod.AccordingtotheWorldBanksWorldDevelopmentIndicators,governmentexpenditureoneducationasapercentageofGDPinalllow-andmiddle-incomecountrieswas3.3percentin1999

19、and3.6percentin2022,whiletotalGDPforthesamecountriesincreasedfrom$6trilliontojustabove$39trillion.Thatimpliesgrowthofpublicspendingoneducationfromabout$200billiontoaround$1,4trillion.AstheBanksrelativefinancialheftineducationhasdeclined,itseducationpolicyagendahasevolvedfromprovidingbasicmaterialinp

20、utstoeducationsystemstoimprovinglearningoutcomesthroughambitioussystemicreforms(MundyandVerger,2015).ThemostrecenteducationstrategyoftheBank,adoptedin2011,emphasizestheneedtoshiftfocusfromschoolingtolearning.Thestrategyaimstopromotelearning,bothinandoutofschool,frompreschoolthroughthelabormarket(Wor

21、ldBank,2011).Incomparison,thepreviousstrategy,adoptedin1999,prioritizedinclusiveaccesstobasiceducationandimprovingqualitythroughearlyinterventions,innovativedeliveryandsystemreform(WorldBank,1999).TheEducationSectorStrategyUpdatein2005retainedthe1999prioritiesbutsoughttoembedtheminbroadereconomy-wid

22、econtextwithexplicitfocusonresults-orientation(WorldBank,2005).Thenotionofthelearningcrisis,asthekeyelementoftheBank,scentralnarrativeoneducationhasbeenstrengthenedduetothefocusitreceivedinthe2018WorldDevelopmentReport(WorldBank,2018).Theevolutionoftheglobaldiscourseineducationinthepastfewdecadessho

23、wsthattheBanksinfluenceasaninternationalagenda-setteremanatesfromitsuniqueroleasalenderandknowledgebroker(Edwardsetal.,2023).DoesWorldBanklendingforeducationmatchthisrhetoricalshiftinpolicypriorities?Hastheallocationofbanknanceacrosssub-sectorsandactivitieswithineducationevolvedinlinewiththemuchcele

24、bratedpivotfrom“schoolingtolearning?Inthispaper,weattempttoanalyzevariousaspectsoftheevolutionofWorldBankfinancingforeducationoverthepasttwoandahalfdecadesagainstthebackdropoftheshiftinstrategyaswellasbroadernarrative.WeconstructanoveldatasetonthethematicfocusofWorldBankeducationprojectsbycodingtheP

25、rojectDevelopmentObjectives(PDOs)of815projectsimplementedbetween1998and2022.Additionally,alargesubsetofthePDOsweremappedtotheactualprojectactivities,offeringinsightsintothepracticalmanifestationsoftheobjectivesintheformofinvestmentsontheground.OurdataspanstheyearsduringwhichtheMillenniumDevelopmentG

26、oals(MDGs)wereadoptedandsubsequentlyevolvedintotheSustainableDevelopmentGoals(SDGs),whichsignificantlyenhancedtheBanksglobalroleinfundinghumandevelopmentinitiatives.Inabsoluteterms,thedatashowsthatthepasttwodecadeswerecharacterizedbyasteadyincreaseinWorldBankfinancingOfeducationprojects,mirroringthe

27、signicantexpansioninoverallWorldBanklending.Intermsofsectoralcomposition,theshareofnancingforprimaryeducationdeclinedbyaroundone-thirdbetween1998and2022.Themostsubstantialgrowthwasintheshareofprojectsfocusedonearlychildhoodeducation(ECE),whichincreasedbyafactorof2.5timesbetweenthefirstandlastWorldBa

28、nkeducationstrategies(i.e.,1998-2005vs2011-2022).Asforthematicobjectives,expandingaccesstoeducationhasremainedthedominantfocus,accountingforanaverageof25.6percentofWorldBankeducationlendingunderthemostrecentstrategy,despiteadeclinefromashareof29.3percentpriortothe2005strategy.Otherobjectives,indecre

29、asingorderoftheirportfoliosharearequality,governance,attainment,learningoutcomesandemployability.Notably,theaverageshareofprojectstargetinglearningoutcomes“hasdeclinedaftertheadoptionofthem1.earningforAI,strategyin2011incontrasttoasignicantincreaseinthepreviousperiod.Intermsofequityandwellbeing,inte

30、rventionstargetedatunderrepresentedgroupsandwomenincreaseddramaticallywhileactivitiesenhancingoverallwellbeinginschoolstagnated.OneofthedriversbehindthepersistenceofaccessasadominantobjectiveforWorldBankeducationprojectsisthetendencyofcountriestoshiftborrowingtoexpandingaccessinothersubsectorsasprim

31、aryenrolmentincreases.BorrowingcountriesthathavealreadyattainedsignificantincreasesinprimaryenrolmentseemtoprioritizeexpandingECEastheytapsubsequentWorldBankfinancing.Apartfromthesequencingchoicesofborrowingcountries,theperformanceofdifferenttypesofeducationprojectsasdeterminedbytheIndependentEvalua

32、tionGroupmayhaveinfluencedthetrendsintheallocationoffinancing.Particularly,therelativelylowscoresprojectstargetedatlearningoutcomesreceiveduponcompletionmayhavecontributedtoashiftinsubsequentlendingtowardsotherobjectives.Similarly,therelativelyhighscoresOfECEprojectscouldbepartofthereasonECEhasseent

33、hehighestrateofexpansioninfinancingovertheperiodcoveredbyourdata.Areviewofthemainfactorsinfluencingdifferentialratingsamongvariousprojecttypes,asoutlinedinevaluationdocuments,revealsapattern:substantiatingtheattainmentoflearningoutcomestargetsprovestypicallymoredifficultthanachievingaccesstargetsove

34、rthestandardprojectlifespan.TheWorldBank,sstatedobjectivesforaprojectarenotmeaninglesslabels.Wefindasignificantcorrelationbetweenthetypeofobjectiveandtheactivitiesfinancedbytheproject.Projectswithanexplicitfocusonlearningoutcomesofteninvolvemoreactivitiesrelatedtoassessmentsandcurriculumthanprojects

35、focusingonaccess.Conversely,projectsaimedatattainmentorlearningoutcomesarelesslikelytoincludeactivitiesfocusedonequityandinclusion.However,thechoiceofprojectactivitiesalsoappeartobeinfluencedbytheidentityoftheWorldBankstaffmemberresponsibleforprojectpreparation.Wefindthattheidentityofthe*,TaskTeam1.

36、eader,explainstheselectionofactivitiesrelatedto,4equityandinclusion*,*,curriculu11andtextbooks,andmanagementinformationanddata*aswellorbetterthanthecountrytheprojectsarelocatedin.Overall,themainresultsofthepaperrevealthattheWorldBanksfinancingportfolioismorecomplexthanthedominantnarrativesmightsugge

37、st.Thetrendsinthecompositionofprojectsarelikelytohavebeenshapedbytheinteractionbetweensupplyanddemandforces.ThefindingsregardingprojectsaimedatimprovinglearningoutcomespointtotheneedfortheBanktoreevaluatehowitslendingoperationscouldeffectivelysupportitsdeclaredmissionofcombatinglearningpoverty.There

38、seemstobesignificantmomentumfortheBanktobuildonitssuccessineffectivelydeliveringECEprojectsandrespondtothegrowingdemandforECEinvestmentfromborrowingcountries.ECEinvestmentstypicallyentailboostingearlyaccesstoeducationandstimulation,ultimatelycreatingaconduciveenvironmenttoimprovelearningoutcomesinth

39、efuture,inthiscontext,ECErepresentsanareawheretheWorldBankhasthepotentialtosignificantlyenhanceitsimpactonlong-termeducationaloutcomesbyharnessingitsexistingcapabilitiesindeliveringaccessprojects.Onelimitationtoouranalysisisthatitisdone,bynecessity,attheprojectlevel,andeachprojectspansmultipleobject

40、ivesandactivities.Wecannotascribeaspecificdollarvaluetoeachobjectiveinprojectswithdiversegoals.Consequently,eachobjectiveindicatedinthePDOisassignedanequalshareofthemonetaryallocationfortheprojectfromtheWorldBankincalculatingthepercentageshareofobjectivesinagivenyear.Similarly,theIEGratingsareapplic

41、abletoallobjectiveswithintheproject,makingitchallengingtodirectlymeasuretheperformanceofaparticularobjective.Therefore,theperformanceonaparticularobjectiveisonlymeasuredindirectlyinrelationtotheperformanceofotherprojectsthatdonotincludethatobjective.furthercaveatisthattheactivitiesdatabaseweusedinco

42、njunctionwiththePDOdatasetdoesnotextendbeyond2017,leavingoutrecentyearsinwhichsignificantmovementsinthecompositionofobjectivestookplace.Theremainderofthepaperisorganizedasfollows.Section2providesanoverviewofthekeytrendsandpatternsthathavecharacterizedWorldBanksfinancingforeducationoverthepast25years

43、.Section3offersexplanationsfortheobservedtrends,focusingonthedemand-sideoftheeducationfinancingdecision.Sections4and5lookatthesupply-side,analyzingwhatkindsofprojectstheWorldBankdeemsitselftobegoodandbadatexecuting.Section6examinesadifferentaspectofthesupplyside,i.e.,howmuchindividualWorldBankstaffd

44、eterminethetypeofeducationprojectscountriesborrowfor.Section7concludes.2. AquartercenturyofexpansionandoscillatingprioritiesThemethodologyusedforconstructingthedatasetforthisanalysisispresentedinAppendix1.Thepast25yearshaveseensignificantincreasesintheallocationofWorldBankfinancingforeducation.Thist

45、rendhasmirroredtheoverallexpansioninWorldBanklendinginallsectorsoverthesameperiod(seeFigure1).Thenumberofapprovededucationprojectshasdoubledduringthisperiod,whilethetotalfinancingvaluehasquadrupled.Thisindicatesasubstantialincreaseintheaveragecommitmentperproject.Althoughamixofvariouslendinginstrume

46、ntshavebeenusedovertheyears,educationfinancinghasbeendominatedbyspecificinvestmentlendingwhichisusuallytargetedatprojectsofmedium-tolong-termhorizon.AstheMillenniumDevelopmentGoalsperiod(i.e.2000-2015)coincideswiththeyearscoveredbyourreview,therampingupofeducationlendingcouldbepartlyattributedtotheg

47、lobaldrivetohelplow-andmiddle-incomecountriesachievetheeducationgoals.800FIGURE1.WorldBank,seducationfinancingexpandedsignificantlyoverthepasttwoandahalfdecades6(XX)86O1.ZEqG9N86O1.ZETrin9ZeO6O1.1.AllWBcommitments(3-yearma),SmillionEducationprojectcommitment(3-yearma),SmilllonPrimaryeducationproject

48、shaveaccountedforthelargestshareofnancingovertheentireperiod.However,Figure2showsthattherelativeshareofprimaryeducationhasdeclinedsignificantly,byroughlyaquarterbetweentheearliestandthelatestsectorstrategyperiodsduringthepast25years.Theshareofsecondaryeducation,whichtypicallyrepresentsthesecondmostp

49、opularareaofinvestment,experiencedaninitialrise,approachinglevelssimilartoprimaryeducation.However,itgraduallydeclinedthereafter.ThetwoareasthathavewitnessedarelativelyconsistentincreaseintheshareofWorldBanknancingsincetheearly2000sareECEandOthereducation”(includingpublicadministration).Particularly,theshareofECEintheedu