英文【dentsu电通】2035年消费者愿景报告-从洞察转向远见的时代word版.docx

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1、CONSUMERVISION2035TheEraoftheInsighttoForesightPivotAboutthisstudyAtdentsu,wearedriventoinnovateThroughinnovation,weensuretheimpactourclientsneedtodrivegrowthintheirbusiness,whilealsogeneratingapositiveeffectontheindustry,society,andtheworld.TohelpaccomplishingthisWecreatedthedentsuConsumerVisionres

2、earchplatform,thatlooksintothefutureoftechnology,culture,consumersandbrandstoprovidemarketerswithaviewintoupcomingshiftsthatwillreshapethebusinesslandscape.Thefirsteditionofthisplatform,TheAgeofInclusiveIntelligence,wasa2021studythatlookedathowemergingconsumerexpectations,aswellassocietalandtechnolo

3、gicaldevelopments,wereshapinganewlandscapethatbrandsneededtoprepareforonthewayto2030.ThestudyprovedtobeapowerfulcompassthatourexpertsandclientsleveragedtomapimplicationsinvariousindustrySeCtOrSandtothinkaboutplannedinitiativesfromadifferentpointofview.Infact,severalofthetrendsanduse-casesoutlinedinT

4、heAgeofInclusiveIntelligencecametolifeearlierthanexpected:forinstance,wespeculatedthatWemaysee,before2030,thefirstbrain-computerchipimplantandinJanuary2024Neuralinkannouncedhumantrialstothateffecthavebegun.1Characterizedbyanaccelerationintechnologicaldevelopmentsetinmotionbythepandemiclockdowns,thee

5、arly2020soutpacedsomeofourwildestpredictionsTokeepourfingersonthepulseofafastmovingfuture,wearenowpushingforwardtheperspectiveofourConsumerVisionresearchplatformto2035toonceagainunderstandhowevolvingconsumerexpectationshiftsincultureandsocietyandnewhorizonsopenedbytechnologydevelopmentwillshapethefu

6、turemandatesofbrandsAsweembarkedonthiswork,weknewlifein2035wouldlookdifferentfromtheworldweliveintoday.WiththesupportofForesightFactory,aleadingconsumertrendsagency,weanalyzeddatafromasurveyof30,OOOconsumersin27differentcountriestounderstandexpectedshiftsinconsumerattitudes,values,andbehaviorsWealso

7、spokewith20expertsandfuturiststounderstandwhattheyseeasthemostlikelydisruptionsandinnovationsintheirfields.Comingoutofthisresearch,weidentifiedthefourforcesthatwillreshapetechnology,cultureiconsumers,andbrands-theareasoffocusofourongoingstudy-overthecourseofthenext10+yearsEachforceisdrivenby3trendst

8、hatpointtofundamentallynewwaysbrandsandmarketersneedtoengageConSUmerSwhichwevalidatedleveragingourglobaldentsuConsumerNavigatorintelligenceplatform.Theexpertswespoketospecializedinawiderangeoftopicsfromsustainabilitytoglobalpoliticsandeconomics,fromAfrofuturismtofashionandfromarttosafeIdesign.Theyca

9、nvastheglobefromJapantoSouthAfricatotheUnitedStates.WhenwetalkaboutInsighttoForesighf,wetalkaboutafundamentalshiftthatdictateshowinthe203Ositwillnolongerbeenoughtounderstandandrespondtothemoment,butinsteadtherewillbeamandatetogetaheadofthatunderstandingandactpre-emptively.Thisappliestoallcoreareasof

10、focusinourstudy.Aswelooktothefutureoftechnology,astrategyguidedbyforesightwillensurehumanreasoningandprogressprevailsasIcapabilitiesgetincreasinglyadoptedswelooktothe：fwewillneedtoshiftfromsimplyreactingtochange,topredictingwhichsolutionswillcreatenew,untappedpositivechangetosurviveasabusiness,asoci

11、etyandaglobalcivilizationinanerawhereWd11faceunprecedentedconstraintsAswelooktotheiilur-consmeisweseethatthewayconsumersbuyandinteractwithbrandswillbemoredependentonemotionsandttinthemoment,states,yetconsumerswillpre-determinethespectrumofexperiencestheyareexposedtointhosemomentsviagreaterdataagency

12、.Aswelooktothe,pivotingfrominsighttoforesightwillenablethemtoanticipateanddeliveronpredictedemotionalstatesofConSUmerSanewrequirementtothriveasabusinessby2035.Eachofthesefourforcesissupportedbythreeunderlyingtrends.Tohelpthereadernavigatethisnarrative,hereisabreakdownofthejourneyahead.1.efsdivein!nc

13、*uOurExpertsSariAzoutInternetcuration,journalismFounder;Startupy.worldMargueriteCoetzeeSouthAfricancultureAnthropologist,Futurist,ArtistRussellStevensMedia,technologydemocracyHeadofPrograms,MITCenterforConstructiveCommunicationFranklineOzekhoneAfrofuturisnvpopcultureVPMnrketingtVendeaseAfricaZoeSeam

14、anInnovation,entertainmentFounder;BodaciousClaudineFryGlobalpolitics&riskPartner,ControlRisksRubyThOIotUED,Design.CyberethnographyAdjunctP,ofessorlNYUMelissHMorenoSustainability,smarturbanise,lawAssociate,Kirkland&EllisDomHeinrichAIdesign&safety,innovationExecutiveIDesignDirector,T1.GGOxfordEconomic

15、sGlobaleconomicsCleoValentineArchitecturalNeuroimnunologyPhDCandidate,UofCambridgeGeraldineWharryForesight,culturaltheoryFounder,TrendAtelierNickBlundenDigitaltransferaationtmarketingPresident,TheBusinessofFashionRandiKronthal-SaccoSustainablebusinessSeniorScholanNYUSternSohailInayatullahfPhDForesig

16、ht,strategyChairinFuturesStudies.UNESCOCindyNoirPersonalDevelop-aentSpeakerandContentCreatorKoratoSasamotoStrategy,MarketingManagingPartner.DentsuVenturesYi-1.ingIJuChineseculture&technologyEditorRestoftheWorld,Writer,NYT,NewYorkenWIREDRichardBenjanineAIethics&socialimpactChiefResponsibleAIOfficer,T

17、elefonicaExecutiveSummaryTenyearsfromnow,technologyurillcompletelyenvelopourexperienceofrealityasweincreasinglydelegatemoreaspectsofourday-to-dayto1.Atthesametime,constraintsbroughtupbyclimatechangewillforceustore-examineaspectsofourculturewehavetakenforgrantedsconsumerwewillreacttothesetensionsbyle

18、aningfurtherintoourmoodstatesandexpectbrandstousepredictivecapabilitiestoanticipatehowweIexpecttobemetbythem.illneedto,o-forcesbrandshenextdecade:layingthefoundationnowtoyes,developingandadoptingIitiesandanticipatorybehaviorseandgrowinthisneweraunTAceedinthe2吁Os,brandswillneedtopivotchttoforcjghtand

19、presentconsumerswithsolutionsthatwilldictatenot眇总abrandbutalsoifabrandinanAI-filteredandculturally.即TheFutureofTechnology:DigitalDelegationWeseeafuturewhereconsumersfeelincreasinglycomfortablewithlettingtechnology-andSpecificallyAIassistants-takeoverasignificantshareofactivitiesinvariousaspectsofthe

20、irlivesFollowingthereleaseofChatGPTinNovember2022,2theavailabilityofcustomer-facinggenerativeAIapplicationsinthelast12monthshasexpandedCOnSUnIer6willingnesstodelegatetotechnologyagreaternumberoftasksandaspectsoftheirdailylives49%ofrespondentsinourglobalstudysaidthat,by2035,thejfdliketohaveanAIclondo

21、fthemselvestakecareofshoppinadmin,andcommunicationtasksontheirbehalf3ThisWillleadtoanewbusinesscontextwhere,increasingly,brandsaresellingtoMgatekeeperratherthantheirhumancounterpartsandmachinesplotwitheachothertoenableavastnumberoftransactionsthatwilloccurwithoutourdirectintervention.Inthisnewworld,

22、technologywillalsobecomemoreseamlesslyembeddedinourexperienceofreality;asitwilloftenoverlayinformationontothephysicalrealityweinteractwith,asopposedtoprojectinformationonscreensthatdistractusfromitAIwillalsorevolutionizehumandabilitytoviscerallyaccessandexperienceculturesandrealmsbeyondtheirown,tran

23、sforminghowwecommunicatewitheachOtheuunderstandandinteractwithanimalsandthenaturalworldandconceiveofcompanionshipwithdigitalcounterpartsTheFutureofCulture:NewPowerParadigmsWhiletechnologywillfacilitateourlivesinmanyWayMweseeafuturewhereaseriesofforcesbeyondourcontrol-fromclimatetotrendsinpopulationg

24、rowth-willleadustore-examineourculture,re-addressfundamentaiassumptionsthatcurrentlyinformourday-to-dayandinspirebrandstorethinkhowtheygoaboutproductionandservingconsumers.Forinstancyisestimatedthatby2030,therewillbea2%lossinworkinghoursduetoextremeclimeatethatwillimpacttheglobaleconomyby24trillionU

25、.&dollars.l4in5respondentsinourglobalstudysaidthatby2035,theyexpecttochangeseveraldailyactivities,doingthingslikegardeningintheevening,becauseoftheeffectsofclimatechange,sThespace-andtime-shiftinginourday-to-daywillhaveanimpactonindustrieslikehospitality,travel,retail,andhealthcare.By2035,therewillb

26、emoreyoungAfncansenteringtheworkforceeachyearthantherestoftheworldcombined.6Theseshiftsintheglobalpopulationwillcreateanewcontextforbrands,creatinganeedtobemoreinvolvedinsupportinggrowthinemergingmarketswherethepublicinfrastructureislessdeveloped.tthesametime,weseeacontinuationofPeoPIdsdisenfranchis

27、ementfromtraditionalinstitutionsandcentralizedpowerstructuresinfavorofmoreImunity-basedinitativesInadditiontotransformingindustriesandhowwethinkaboutinstitutiontheseshiftswillrevolutionizeculture,creatinganewmakeupofthemainstreamthatwillbeprofoundlymorediverseandcommunitycentriccomparedtotoday.Furth

28、ermoreinresponsetoentertainmentstudiosdoublingdownonAI,7in10globalconsumerswillseekuser-generatedcontenttosupportandconnectwithhumancreatirit7Inthiscontext,brandswillneedtoadoptanewmindsetwhenitcomestothemediaandentertainmentpartnershipsthattheyfostertogarnerculturalrelevance；TheFutureofConsumers:Co

29、nsumer(Ec)CentricityWeseeafuturewhereconsumerswillleanfurtherintotheirmoodstatesandpassionswhenengagingactively-asopposedtodelegatingtoAI-withthebrandsthatareabletogarnertheirattention,asawaytoreacttobothtechnologyscocooningeffectsontheirlivesandtotheconstraintsthephysicalrealitythey11liveinwillplac

30、euponthem.Alreadytoday,7in10respondentsinourglobalstudysaidthatasignificantshareoftheirbuyingdecisionsisinfluencedbythemoodthe、；reinatthetimeofPUrChaSagCOnSUnlereincreasingeccentricitywillfirstandforemostmanifestinapivotfromonlythinkingaboutdataintermsofprivacytothinkingofdataintermsofagency:consume

31、rsmanifesttheirpersonalitiesonlineandwillincreasinglythinkofthedatatrailwillleaveastheirownIPthattheywanttofurthercuratcustomizeandpotentiallymonetizeintheirinteractionswithotherconsumers,WithAI,andwithbrandsalikeConsumerswillalsoseektoYe-SenSitiZdthemselvesinhumaninteractionsthathavebeenincreasingl

32、ymediatedbytechnology.Theywillstrivetoexperienceanexpandingrangeofemotionsandmanifestthisdesireintheintereststheywillexpectbrandstocaterto:catharticexperiences,desiresthatfeelIcrbidden*andanalogownershipTheFutureofBrands:RiseofPerceptiveBrandsWeseeafutureWhereiinordertodifferentiateandgrow,brandswil

33、lneedtobecomemoreperceptive.Themoreconsumerswillleanintomoodstates,themorebrandswillneedtodevelopanticipatorybehaviorstostandout.TheseCapabiEtieswillbeneededtobothnavigatethefiltersputinplacebyAIgatekeepersandofferexperiencesthatfeelserendipitoustotheenduser:8O%ofglobalconsumersinourstudysaidthatthe

34、bestwayforabrandtostandoutandearntheirloyaltyisitsabilitytosurpriseanddelighttheminunexpectedways.9CapturingsignalsfromAIagentsthatmanifestpreferencesonbehalfofconsumerdevelopingbrandpersonalitiestofuelthenextgenerationofconversationalengagemenanddevelopingcapabilitiestodecodehumanemotionswillbekeyw

35、aysforbrandstopivotfrominsighttoforesighgoingfromsimplyreactingtoconsumerbehaviorstoknowingthembeforetheyknowthemselves.Asanticipationbecomesanexpectationonourjourneytoward2035,brandsandmarketerswillneedtobecomemoreperceptive,developinginnovativesolutionstoenhancetheirunderstandingofconsumerwantsand

36、reconcilingthemwithbusinessneeds,leveragingtheiruniquepositionattheintersectionofboththeinwardandoutwardperspectivesforthebrand.FORCE1THEFUTUREOFTECHNO1.OGYDigita1DeIegationTechnologyhasbecomemoreintertwinedwithconsumersandbrandsinthelastdecadesandwillcontinuetodoso.2010sTechnologyenabledconnectivit

37、y,allowingbusinessesbrands,andconsumerstoaccessinstantinspiration.2020sTechnologyenhanceshumanabilities(ourbrainsandbodies)tooptimizehealth,productifityandproblemsolving.2030sTechnologyenvelopsCOnSUmerSrealitiesandexpandstheirunderstandingoftheworldasAIpervadesourlivesOnthepathto2035,humanswillincre

38、asinglyandwillinglyoutsourcetheirautonomytomachinesinexchangeforapersonalizedandcocoonedenvironment707ofglobalconsumerssurveyedinourstudybelieveAIwillbeusedinmostaspectsofourlives10yearsfromnow.H)saythatby2035theydliketohaveanIcloneofthemseIvestotakecareofshopping,admin,andcommtasksforthem,n3keytren

39、dswillshapethislandscape:M2MRevolutionAsconsumersoutsourcetaskstoAI,theyaretrustinginmachine-onlysupportnetworks.CustomizedRealityConsumersareoptingfortechnologythatisorganicallyembeddedintoeverydaylifeNon-humanAlliancesConsumerempathyexpandstoincludethenaturalworldandAi-aidedentities.M2MRevolutionI

40、nthenextdecade,technologywillevolvefromproductifityboostertofulladministratorPeopleandcorporationsalikewillhandoverthereinstomachines,outsourcingtasksroleandevenfullecosystems.Machineswillconferwithoneanotherwithouthumaninput,makingdecisionsbasedoninformationlibrariesoncecreatedandoverseenbyhumansAs

41、datafromthesemachine-to-machine(M2M)relationshipsgrows,thisnewcontextwillcreatedemandforasuperiortechnologyinfrastructurecapableofdeliveringgreaterspeedsandgreatercomputingcapacities.BusinesssuccesswillbepredicatedonComPanieWabilitytograduatetothesenewstandards.HumanOutsourcetoDigitalArtificialintel

42、ligenceisnolongeraplotofsciencefictionentertainmentKsapartofthemainstreamandisalreadypartofeverydaylifeformanyconsumers-eveniftheyarerftactivelyawareofitConsumershavegrownincreasinglymorecomfortablewithautomationandrelyingonalgorithms,andifsnolongerastretchtoexpectthatverysoon,mostpeoplewillbeoutsou

43、rcinganumberofdailytaskstoA1.79%ofrespondentsinourglobalstudywouldliketohaveanAIassistanttoschedulemeetingsintheirworkandpersonallivesby2035.ThisshareisevenmoresignificantincountrieslikeIndiaandChina12EasingadminiStrativetasksorchoresisjustthetipoftheicebergintermsofhowhumanscanoutsourceactivitiesto

44、A1.Consider;forinstance,ChatGPTbeingusedtosuggesttraveldestinations,whichthenevolvestoAIthatplansthewholetripitinerary,andthenbecomesAIthatautomaticallyinterfaceswithotherAIstopurchasetheairplaneticketsandmakethehotelreservationforyouAsAIbecomemoreestablishedandtrusted,outsourcingtasksWiIIlookmoreli

45、keoutsourcingentireles.Already,arobotCEOpresidesoveramulti-million-dollarcompanyPolish-basedrumproducerDictadorappointedanAIentitynamedMika,createdbyHansonRobotics13ManywantanAIassistanttoschedulepersonalandworkmeetingsby2035.Q193%GlobalIndiaChinaM2MColleaguesAscomfortwithrelyingonAlgrows,therespons

46、ibilitiesdelegatedtoAIWillbecomemoresignificant,eventuallycuttingoutthehumanmiddlemancompletelyHumanswillallowmachinestoplotwitheachother;Indefatigablycollaboratingandautomatingtheworld:thetruerealizationoftheso-calledInternetofThingd.3in4globalconsumerssurveyedinourstudysaidthattheyexpectby2035thei

47、rappliances,devices,andvehicleswillre-orderpartsandscheduleserviceappointmentsindependentlyIIlnthesecircumstances,artificialintelligencewillbeviewednotascompetitionforyourjobbutasacolleagueworkingalongsideyou,producingresultsjustasyouareRFPGenie,developedbyTwilliousingGPT-4,isagreatexampleofhowthebusinessworldisstartingtoleanintotheoptimizationopportunitiesopenedupbytheprospectofmachinesplottingwitheachother;Thetoolautomatesthetaskoffillingoutrequestforproposal(RFP)form