【社媒营销分析报告】新闻、媒体和技术趋势及预测2023（英）.docx

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1、二尊.窿掰笠雄整就肥;AA必趣蠢啦逑处.，擦港熊遮札X；!ffitl通界:尊哽t-守REUTERSINS11TUTEUMrvtltltTYCMOXFORD(j)nvContentsAbouttheAuthor2Acknowledgements2ExecutiveSummary1.Inflation,Uncertainty,andSqueezeon3SpendingCloudsProspectsforJournalism2.DigitalSubscriptionsandBundlingOffer7SomeHope3.PeakInternetandtheChallengeof10NewsAvoid

2、ance164. StepChangeinNewsMediasCoverageoftheClimateEmergency5. TechPlatformsSufferfromOverreach,19Hubris,andNewCompetition216.FormatInnovation:TheShifttoAudioandVideoContinues287. ProductDirectionisClearbutFrustrationRemainsOverPaceofChange8. BreakthroughYearforArtificial32IntelligenceanditsApplicat

3、ionforJournalism359.Conclusion40SurveyMethodology42RecentRISJPublications44AbouttheAuthorNicNewmanisSeniorResearchAssociateattheReutersInstitutefortheStudyofJournalism,wherehehasbeenleadauthoroftheannualDigitalNewsReportsince2012.Heisalsoaconsultantondigitalmedia,workingactivelywithnewscompaniesonpr

4、oduct,audience,andbusinessstrategiesfordigitaltransition.Hehasproducedamediaandjournalismpredictionsreportforthelast13years.ThisistheseventhtobepublishedbytheReutersInstitute.NiCwasafoundingmemberoftheBBCNewsWebsite,leadinginternationalcoverageasWorldEditor(1997-2001).AsHeadofProductDevelopment(2001

5、-10)heleddigitalteams,developingwebsites,mobile,andinteractiveTVapplicationsforallBBCJournalismsites.AcknowledgementsTheauthorwouldliketothank303newsleadersfrom53countriesandterritories,whorespondedtoasurveyaroundthekeychallengesandopportunitiesintheyearahead.Respondentsincluded68editors-in-chief,49

6、CEOsormanagingdirectors,and44headsofdigitalorinnovationandcamefromsomeoftheworldsleadingtraditionalmediacompaniesaswellasdigital-bornorganisations(seebreakdownattheendofthereport).Surveyinputandanswershelpedguidesomeofthethemesinthisreportanddatahavebeenusedthroughout.Somedirectquotesdonotcarrynames

7、ororganisations,attherequestofthosecontributors.TheauthorisparticularlygratefultoRasmusKleisNielsenforhisideasandsuggestions,theresearchteamattheReutersInstitute,andtoarangeofotherexpertsandexecutiveswhogenerouslycontributedtheirtimeinbackgroundinterviews(seefullerlistattheend).ThanksalsogotoAlexRei

8、dforinputonthemanuscriptovertheholidayseasonandkeepingthepublicationontrack.Aswithmanypredictionsreportsthereisasignificantelementofspeculation,particularlyaroundspecificsandthereportshouldbereadbearingthisinmind.Havingsaidthat,anymistakes-factualorotherwise-shouldbeconsideredentirelytheresponsibili

9、tyoftheauthorwhocanbeheldaccountableatthesametimenextyear.PublishedbytheReutersInstitutefortheStudyofJournalismwiththesupportoftheGoogleNewsInitiative.ExecutiveSummaryThiswillbeayearofheightenedconcernsaboutthesustainabilityofsomenewsmediaagainstabackdropoframpantinflation,andadeepsqueezeonhousehold

10、spending.RussiasinvasionofUkraine,theincreasinglydestructiveimpactofglobalwarming,alongwiththeafter-effectsoftheCOVIDpandemichavecreatedfearanduncertaintyformanyordinarypeople.Intheseconditionsjournalismhasoftenthrived,butthedepressingandrelentlessnatureofthenewsagendacontinuestoturnmanypeopleaway.C

11、ouldthisbetheyearwhenpublishersrethinktheiroffertoaddressthetwinchallengesofnewsavoidanceanddisconnection-tooffermorehope,inspiration,andutility?BigTechplatformswillalsobeunderpressurethisyearandnotjustfromtheeconomicdownturn.First-generationsocialnetworkslikeFacebookandTwitterarestrugglingtoretaina

12、udiencesasolderpeoplegetboredandyoungerusersmigratetonewnetworkslikeTikTok.Amidthisturmoil,thereissomehopethatthenextsetofapplicationswillputmoreemphasisonconnectionsandcontentthataregoodforsocietyratherthanthosethatdeliveroutrageandanger.Withhugeaudiencesupforgrabs,wecanexpect(orhope)toseetheseedso

13、fsomethingbetterin2023withahostofnewnetworksandmodelsemerging.Meanwhile,thenextwaveoftechnicalinnovationisalreadyhere-andwearenottalkingaboutthemetaverse.Extraordinaryadvancesinartificialintelligence(AI)in2022havelaidbaremoreimmediateopportunities-andchallenges-forjournalism.AIoffersthechanceforpubl

14、ishers(finally)todelivermorepersonalinformationandformats,tohelpdealwithchannelfragmentationandinformationoverload.Butthesenewtechnologieswillalsobringexistentialandethicalquestions-alongwithmoredeepfakes,deepporn,andothersyntheticmedia.Buckleupfortheride.Againstthisbackdrop,newsorganisationsthathav

15、enotyetfullyembraceddigitalwillbeataseveredisadvantage.Thenextfewyearswillnotbedefinedbyhowfastweadoptdigital,butbyhowwetransformourdigitalcontenttomeetrapidlychangingaudienceexpectations.Howdomedialeadersviewtheyearahead? Publishersaremuchlessconfidentabouttheirbusinessprospectsthanthistimelastyear

16、.1.essthanhalf(44%)ofoursampleofeditors,CEOs,anddigitalleaderssaytheyareconfidentabouttheyearahead,witharoundafifth(19%)expressinglowconfidence.Thebiggestconcernsrelatetorisingcosts,lowerinterestfromadvertisers,andasofteninginsubscriptions.Eventhosethatareoptimisticexpecttoseelayoffsandothercost-cut

17、tingmeasuresinthenextyear. Atthesametime,wefindevidencethatmostpublishers(72%)areworriedaboutincreasingnewsavoidance-especiallyaroundimportantbutoftendepressingtopicslikeUkraineandclimatechange-withonly12%notworried.Publisherssaytheyplantocounterthiswithexplainercontent(94%),Q&Aformats(87%)zandinspi

18、rationalstories(66%)consideredimportantorveryimportantthisyear.Producingmorepositivenews(48%)wasalesspopularresponse. Morepublishersareinvestinginsubscriptionandmembershipin2023,withthemajorityofthosesurveyed(80%)sayingthiswillbeoneoftheirmostimportantrevenuepriorities,aheadofbothdisplayandnativeadv

19、ertising.Despitethesqueezeonconsumerspending,overhalf(68%)stillexpectsomegrowthinsubscriptionandotherpaidcontentincomethisyear. Publisherssaythat,onaverage,threeorfourdifferentrevenuestreamswillbeimportantorveryimportantthisyear.Athird(33%)nowexpecttogetsignificantrevenuefromtechplatformsforcontentl

20、icensing(orinnovation),significantlyuponlastyear,reflectingthefruitsofmulti-yeardealsnegotiatedinsomemarketswithanumberofbigpublishers,ofteninthecontextofpolicieschampionedbythosesamepublishersbeingintroducedorconsideredbygovernments. Withmorelegislationplannedthisyeartorestrictzharmful,contentonsoc

21、ialmedia,manyrespondents(54%)worrythatthesenewrulescouldmakeitharderforjournalistsandnewsorganisationstopublishstoriesthatgovernmentsdonztlike.Aroundathird(30%)arelessworriedand14%arenotworriedatall. PublisherssaytheyllbepayingmuchlessattentiontoFacebook(-30netscore)andTwitter(-28)thisyearandwillins

22、teadputmuchmoreeffortintoTikTok(+63),Instagram(+50),andYouTube(+47),allnetworksthatarepopularwithyoungerpeople.IncreasedinterestinTikTok(+19ppcomparedwithlastyear)reflectsadesiretoengagewithunder25s,andexperimentwithverticalvideostorytelling,despiteconcernsaboutmonetisation,datasecurity,andthewideri

23、mplicationsofChineseownership. ThepotentialimplosionofTwitterunderthestewardshipofElonMuskhasfocusedmindsonitsvaluetojournalists.Halfofoursurveyrespondents(51%)saythepotentiallossorweakeningofTwitterwouldbebadforjournalism,but17%takeamorepositiveviewsuggestingitcouldreducerelianceontheviewsofanunrep

24、resentativebutvocalelite.1.inkedIn(42%)hasemergedasthemostpopularalternative,followedbyMastodon(10%),andFacebook(7%).Othersstruggletoseealike-for-likereplacement. Astheimpactofclimatechangebecomesmoreevident,thenewsindustryhasbeenrethinkinghowitcoversthiscomplexandmulti-facetedstory.Aroundhalf(49%)s

25、aytheyhavecreatedaspecialistclimateteamtostrengthencoverage,withathirdhiringmoreSta仔(31%),Justunderhalf(44%)saytheyareintegratingdimensionsoftheclimatedebateintoothercoverage(e.g.businessandsport)andthreeinten(30%)havedevelopedaclimatechangestrategyfortheircompany. Intermsofinnovation,publisherssayt

26、hattheywillbeputtingmoreresourceintopodcastsanddigitalaudio(72%)aswellasemailnewsletters(69%),twochannelsthathaveprovedeffectiveinincreasingloyaltytonewsbrands.Plannedinvestmentindigitalvideoformats(67%)isalsouponlastyear,perhapspromptedbyTikTok,sexplosivegrowth.Bycontrastjust4%saythey,llbeinvesting

27、inthemetaverse,reflectingincreasedscepticismaboutitspotentialforjournalism. MediacompaniesarequietlyintegratingAIintotheirproductsasawayofdeliveringmorepersonalisedexperiences.Almostthreeinten(28%)saythisisnowaregularpartoftheiractivities,withafurther39%sayingtheyhavebeenconductingexperimentsinthisa

28、rea.NewapplicationssuchasChatGPTandDA1.1.-E2alsoillustrateopportunitiesforproductionefficiencyandthecreationofnewtypesofsemi-automatedcontent.Otherpossibledevelopmentsin2023? Morenewspaperswillstopdailyprintproductionthisyearduetorisingprintcostsandweakeningofdistributionnetworks.Wemayalsoseeafurthe

29、rspateofvenerabletitlesSW让Chingtoanonline-onlymodel. TVandbroadcastnewswillbeattheforefrontofjournalisticlayoffsasaudiencesarehitbynewsfatigueandcompetitionfromstreamers.MoreTVbroadcasterswilltalkopenlyaboutatimewhenlineartransmissionsmightbeturnedoff.NetflixzSpartialswitchtoanad-basedmodelincreases

30、thepressurefurtheronadvertisingrevenue. Inlastyearsreportwepredictedanexplosionofcreativityinshort-formvideostorytellinginyouth-basedsocialnetworks.Thisyearwe,11seemorepublishersembracingthesetechniqueswhilevideosgetlongerinthesearchofsustainablerevenue. Expecttoseeacorrectioninthecreatoreconomythis

31、year.WhilemanyindividualjournalismbusinessesthathavebeenstartedonSubstackandotherplatformscontinuetothrive,thepressureofdeliveringtoconstantdeadlinesonyourownisrelentless,andzcreatorfundsandsimilarmonetaryincentivesOfferedbysomeplatformscan,tbereliedontoendure.Collectivesandmicro-companiescouldbeane

32、wtrendfor2023. IfsalmostimpossibletopredictElonMusk,snextmoveatTwitter,butthereislikelytobeanenormousgapbetweenrhetoricanddeliveryasthecomplexitiesofrunningacreativeandoutspokenglobalcommunitybecomesclearer.MuskislikelytostepdownasCEOsoonerratherthanlaterandafurtherchangeofownershipcantberuledout. M

33、eanwhileSmartglassesandVRheadsets,buildingblocksofthemetaverse,willcontinuetoattractattention,especiallywithAppleexpectedtojointhepartywithitsfirstheadset.Theadditionofzlegs,toFacebooksmetaversehastakeneightyearsandbillionsofdollarsofinvestment.Therolloutofthesewholesomeavatarsthisyearwon,twinroundt

34、heinternalorexternalcriticsormaketheconceptanymorerelevantforjournalism.1.egsarecomingsoon!Areyouexcited?/1. Inflation,Uncertainty,andSqueezeonSpendingCloudsProspectsforJournalismThistimelastyearfewpredictedVladimirPutinsinvasionofUkraine,aneventthathastriggeredanenergycrisisandspirallinginflationac

35、rossmanycountries.Allthishasremindedusofthevalueofon-the-groundreporting,andexpertanalysisattimesofuncertainty,butithasalsomadethefundingofsuchjournalismmoreprecarious.Advertisersarepullingbackatthesametimeashouseholdsreducespendingandpublishersfacerisingcostsonmultiplefronts.Thosethatstillrelyheavi

36、lyonprinthavebeenparticularlybadlyaffected,withthecostofpaperdoublinginsomecases.Towardstheendof2022,thisperfectstormledtoanumberoflayoffs,spendingfreezes,andothercost-cuttingmeasures.Inoursurvey,lessthanhalf(44%)ofoursampleofeditors,CEOs,anddigitalleaderssaytheyareconfidentabouttheirbusinessprospec

37、tsintheyearahead,withalmostasmany(37%)uncertainandaroundafifth(19%)expressinglowconfidence.19%37%44%1.essthanhalfofpublishersareconfidentabouttheyearaheadBusinessprospectsin2023NotconfidentNeithernorConfidentQ6.Towhatextentareyouconfidentaboutyourcompany,sbusinessprospectsintheyearahead.N=303.IntheU

38、nitedStates,Gannettplanstocutitsnewsdivisionbyafurther6%,losingaround200staff.TheWashingtonPostisdiscontinuingits60-year-oldprintmagazine,CNNislayingoffhundredsofpeople,andNPRispreparingtomakesignificantcutsasaresultofafinancialblackhole.Ifsasimilarpictureinmanycountriesaroundtheworld.Gannettinitiat

39、esanotherroundoflayoffs,cuttingitsnewsdivisionby6%WashingtonPostSaysItWillEndSundayMagazine,Eliminates10StaffPositionsFYomCNNtoParamount,PtrfcctStorminMediaPropels1.ayofTsDigital-bomcompaniesarenotimmune.BuzzFeedislosinganother180employees,whileMorningBrewisaxing14%ofitsworkforce.Fallingtrafficfromb

40、igsocialplatformslikeFacebook(Meta)andTwitter,whicharebothheadinginnewdirections,hascompoundedtheproblem,especiallyforcompaniesthathavebecomedependentonsocialdistribution.Spendingbyadvertisersisunpredictable.Distributedrevenueisdown.Traditionalsocialmediaplayers,whichhadstartedtorestraintheirunpredi

41、ctability,haveimploded-MetamostinpactfullyfTwittermostspectacularly.Thefoggypicturemakesitdifficulttoplan.Andtheechoesofthepandemic-whichstillisnftover-havefrayednerves.Digital-bornad-basednewsorganisation,UnitedStatesElsewheremanyEuropeanpublishershaveseenaworryingdeclineinprint-basedsubscriptionsp

42、artlylinkedtobreakdownindistributionnetworksandhigherlevelsofchurnoverall/WeseeapostCorona-slump,inflation,andtroubleswithprintdistribution,sothereislessconfidencethanayearago/saysPhilippeRemarque,PublisherandDirectorofJournalismatDPGintheNetherlands.IfsasimilarstoryinFranceaccordingtoaCEOofoneleadi

43、ngpublisher:Newsmagazinesarelosingprintanddigitalsubscriberswhilethepriceofpaperisrising7.OutsideEurope,publisherslargeandsmallfacesimilarpressures.zReaderrevenuecontinuestogrowalthoughataslowerpace,saysStyliCharalambous,CEOoftheDailyMaverickinSouthAfrica.Advertisingandcommercialsponsorshipsareexpec

44、tedtobetoughertogrow,ifatall/hesays.Anypublicationthatstillhasaheavydependenceonprintcirculationoradvertisingrevenueislikelytorunintoseveredifficultiesthisyear.Regionalandlocalnewspapersareespeciallyvulnerable,potentiallyleadingtomoregovernmentinterventioninsomecountriestosupportthesector.Broadcaste

45、rsalsofaceincreasingdisruptionwithrapidlydecliningaudiences-acrossallagegroups-forlinearnewsbulletinsandopinionprogramming.ItdoesnthelpthatmostcommercialTVandradioprovidersremainoverlydependentonadvertisingorcarriagefeesandgeneratelittledirectrevenuefromviewersorlisteners.Netflixsdecisiontotakeadver

46、tisementswilladdfurtherpressurewhilepublicbroadcastersfacefundingcutsamidintensifyingattacksbypoliticiansandrivalpublishers.Whatwillhappenthisyear?HaircutforprinttitlesExpectmorenewspaperstoslimdowneditions,stopsevendayaweekpublication,andevencloseprinteditionsaltogether.Regionalandlocaltitlesseemmo

47、stvulnerable(NewsquestintheUKhasrecentlyconvertedfiveregionaltitles)alongwithahostofmagazinetitlesthathavealreadymovedtoanonline-onlymodel.Withfewercopiesbeingsold,distributionnetworksarealsoweakeningandexpectsometofollowtheexampleofUSpublishersinleveragingthepublicmail1orevenstartingtheirowndeliver

48、ybusinesses.Greenconsumerismcouldaddfurtherpressuretomoveawayfromprint.https:/www.poynter.org/business-work/2022/more-newspapers-consider-a-pivot-to-postal-delivery-to-cut-costs-and-ease-headaches/BroadcastersexperimentwithmoredigitalprojectsThecollapseofCNN+lastyearsuggestedthereislittlefutureforstand-alonelinearnewssubscriptions,butexpecttoseeincreasedattemptstobundleon-demandandlivenewsintostreamingservices.CNNisintegratingoriginalscontentwiththeDiscovery+offeringandITVXisputtingupdatingnewsattheheartofitsrebrandedstreamingservice.Meanwhilepublicbroadcaste