英国发展研究所-针对长期危机：尼日尔案例研究（英）-2023.12_市场营销策划_重点报告20230.docx

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1、uaidfrom the British peopteBETTERASSISTANCEINCRISESRESEARCHTargetinginProtractedCrises:NigerCaseStudyFredMerttens5LouisHodeyandAlexandraDoyleDecember2023ImplementedbyinstHutofdvlopnfftttudiBetterAssistanceinCrises(BASIC)Research(fundedbyUKaid)aimstoinformpolicyandprogrammingonhowtohelppoorandvulnera

2、blepeoplepebetterwithcrisesandmeettheirbasicneedsthroughmoreeffectivesocialassistance.AllcostsrelatedtoBASICResearcharecoveredbytheUKForeign,Commonwealth&DevelopmentOffice(FCDO).Formoreinformationabouttheprogramme,visitBASlCReSearChLinkedmandBASlCReSearChOPenDoCSCollection.SummaryTargetingsocialassi

3、stanceinsituationsofprotractedconflict,displacementorrecurrentclimateshockssothatitreachesthosemostinneedinatimelyandeffectivemanner,andwithoutdoingfurtherharm,isacomplextechnicalandpoliticalchallengefordevelopmentandhumanitarianactorsacrossgovernmentandnon-governmentsectors.Trade-OffSinvolvingcosts

4、beyondtheeconomic-suchasriskofexclusion,andconcernsoverprotectionandsocialcohesion-raisekeyquestionsaboutwhototarget,howtotargetorwhethertotargetatall(i.e.throughuniversalcoverageorlotteries).Whiletargetingeffectivenessisfairlywellresearchedinstabledevelopmentcontexts,thereismuchlessunderstandingand

5、evidenceaboutwhatworksbestinprotractedcrisissettings.ThispaperisoneofthreecountrycasestudiescoveringEthiopia,Niger,andNigeria.Eachcasestudyfocusesonaspecifictimeperiodtodemonstratehowthechallengeoftargetingmightbeapproachedinsituationsofprotractedcrisesbasedonactualhistoricalexamples.Theobjectiveoft

6、hisapproachistogenerateinsightsonthetopicoftargetinginacomparativewayandbyconsideringvulnerabilityasadynamiccondition.ThecasestudieswillbeusedtoproduceasynthesispaperthatwillbringfindingstogethertodrawoutgenerallessonsIortargetingsocialassistanceincrisiscontexts.Thiscasestudyfocusesonthe2012Saheldro

7、ught,whichproducedafoodsecurityemergencyinNiger.Usingtwoyearsofpaneldata(2011and2014)fromeithersideofthe2012droughtcrisisintheSahel,weanalysewhowasaffectedbytheshockandhowtheywereimpacted.Weusethedatatomodelthenotionalperformanceofdifferentpotentialtargetingapproaches-hadtheybeenusedatthetime-toindi

8、catethetypesofchoicesandtrade-offsthatmaybenecessarywhenselectingappropriatetargetingcriteriaforresponsestosimilarcrisesinthefuture.Finally,wealsoconsiderthestatusofenablingconditions(suchasmobilephonenetworkandelectricitycoverage)forimplementingdifferenttargetingapproachesinshock-responsivesocialas

9、sistance.AbouttheauthorsFredMerttensisaseniorresearcherspecialisedinpovertyanalysisandsocialprotectionpolicy.Hehasover16years1experiencedesigningandleadingmultidisciplinaryappliedresearchprojectsforpublicpolicyreformforarangeofinternationaldevelopmentorganisations,governmentsandnon-governmentalorgan

10、isationsinAfrica,theMiddleEast,CentralAsiaandEurope.FredisTechnicalLeadonthetargetingworkstreamfortheBASICResearchprogramme.1.ouisHodeyisadevelopmentresearcherspecialisinginrurallivelihoodstudies,povertyanalysis,impactevaluations,socialprotection,agriculturalcommercialisationandclimatechange.Hehasov

11、ertenyears,experienceindesigningandimplementingmultidisciplinaryresearchindevelopingcountriesincludingBurkinaFaso,Colombia,Ethiopia,Ghana,Mali,Niger,NigeriaandZimbabwe.Mostrecently,LouisworkedasaPrincipalResearchAssistantattheInstituteofStatistical,SocialandEconomicResearch,UniversityofGhana.Louisis

12、aquantitativeresearcheronthetargetingworkstreamfortheBASICResearchprogrammeattheInstituteofDevelopmentStudies.AlexandraDoyleisaninternationaldevelopmentresearcherspecialisinginsocialprotectionpolicyandmonitoringandevaluation.ShehasworkedonarangeofprojectsacrossAfrica,AsiaandtheMiddleEast,includingth

13、eGambia,Kenya,Lebanon,Mozambique,Nepal,Nigeria,SierraLeone,SouthAfrica,Thailand,ZambiaandZimbabwe.MostrecentlyAlexwasMonitoringandEvaluationDeputyDirectorfortheWesternCapeGovernment,SouthAfrica.ExecutivesummaryIntroductionTheBetterAssistanceinCrises(BASIC)Research,systemsfordesignanddelivery*themein

14、cludesatargetingworkstreamthatlooksathowtomakethedesignanddeliveryofsocialassistanceprogrammesmoreeffectiveandresponsiveincrisiscontexts.Thisworkstreamaimstoproducefouroutputs,comprisingthreecountrycasestudies-coveringEthiopia,Niger,andNigeria-andasynthesispaperthatwillbringthefindingsfromthecasestu

15、diestogethertodrawoutgenerallessonsTortargetingsocialassistanceincrisiscontexts.Thefindingsfromthecasestudiesareintendedtoinformgloballearning,anddecisionmakersingovernments,developmentpartners,internationalfinancialinstitutions,andhumanitarianactorswhoareinvolvedinthedesignanddeliveryofsocialassist

16、anceprogrammesinsituationsofprotractedcrises.Eachcountrycasestudywillfocusonaspecificperiodtodemonstratehowthechallengeoftargetingmightbeapproachedinsituationsofprotractedcrisesbasedonanactualhistoricalexample.TheobjectiveofthisapproachistogenerateinsightsonthetopicOftargetinginacomparativewayandbyc

17、onsideringvulnerabilitytosuchcrisesasadynamiccondition.ThiscountrycasestudyreportfocusesonNiger.Itconcentratesonthespecificfoodinsecuritycrisisthataffectedthecountryasaresultofthe2012Saheldrought,whichitselfwasjustoneincidentinalongerprotractedcrisisinducedbyclimatevulnerability.The2012Saheldroughta

18、ndfoodcrisisIn2012,forthethirdtimeintenyears,Nigerfacedamajorfoodsecuritycrisis,initiallycausedbydrought.Anestimated6.4millionpeoplewereaffectedbyfoodinsecurity,particularlyagro-pastoralisthouseholdsin11llab6ri,TahouasZinder,andDiffaregions.The2012rainyseasonthenbroughtabove-averagerainfallthatledto

19、floodingintheNigerRivervalley.Bytheendof2012,thefloodswereestimatedtohaveaffectedmorethan530,000people,destroyinginfrastructureandfloodingagriculturalfields,furthercontributingtoharvestlossandfoodinsecurity.Severalfactorscompoundedthefoodsecurityemergency,includingdisease,pestilence,conflict,populat

20、iondisplacement,andinflation.HouseholdsinNigerwerestillrecoveringfromadroughtandfoodcrisisin2010andwerethereforeparticularlyvulnerableeventosmallshocks.Further,thereturnofNigerienmigrantsinlate2011andarrivalofMalianrefugeesin2012strainedlocalfoodsuppliesinhostcommunitiesandplacedpressureonreceivingh

21、ouseholds.ThesocialassistanceandhumanitariancrisisresponseGivenNiger,sexposuretoclimaticshocksandvulnerabilitytofoodinsecurity,theGovernmentofNiger(GoN)preparesanAnnualPlan(Plandesoutien)tosupportfood-insecurehouseholds.TheplanisdevelopedbytheGoNbutisprimarilydeliveredbyUNagenciesandotherhumanitaria

22、nactorsduetothevastresourcerequirements.Basedonfindingsfromavulnerabilityassessment,whichidentifiedapproximately7,000localitiesinneedofsupport,theGoNbegantoimplementtheplanfromOctober2011,sixmonthsearlierthanpreviousdroughtresponses.Conditionalandunconditionalcashtransfersaccountedfor45percentoftheo

23、verallbudgetofthe2011/12annualplan(WFP2013).Socialassistanceprogrammeslaunchedinresponsetothecrisismainlyusedacombinationofgeographictargetingandcommunity-basedhouseholdtargeting.Thedecisiontotarget,ratherthanprovideauniversalresponsetofoodinsecureareas,wasdrivenbyresourceconstraints.Mostcashtransfe

24、rprogrammesweredesignedandimplementedasemergencyinitiatives,piggybackingonexistinginfrastructurewherepossible.However,atthetimeofthecrisis,routinesocialassistanceprogrammeswereintheirinfancyandtheinfrastructuretoswiftlyscaleupassistancetocovertheaffectedpopulationviahorizontaland/orverticalexpansion

25、waslimited.AffectedpopulationsandwelfaretrendsTwowavesoftheNationalSurveyonHouseholdLivingConditionsandAgriculture(EnqueteNationalesurIesConditionsdeViedesMenagesetAgriculture-ECVMA),thenationalsurveythatprovidesconsumptionandpovertyestimatesforthecountry,conductedintheyears2011and2014,respectively,

26、siteithersideofthe2012droughtcrisis.Inwhatfollows,weusethisdatatounderstandwhowaslikelytohavebeenaffectedbytheshockandhowtheywereimpacted.AffectedpopulationsandtheircharacteristicsThenationalsurveydatashowsthatdroughtanddrought-relatedshocksnegativelyimpactabroadanddiversepopulationgroup,withdiffere

27、ntsub-populationsaffectedindifferentwaysandtodifferentdegrees.Corroboratingtheliterature,ouranalysisindicatesthatthepeoplemostaffectedbythe2012droughtwereconcentratedinTillaberiandTahouaregions,and,toalesserextent,Maradi,Zinder5andDiffa.TillaberiandTahouahadthehighestproportionofpastoralistsandagro-

28、pastoralists,aswellasthelowestproportionofpeoplelivinginurbanareas.Atnationallevel,thedatashowsthatthewelfaredistributionofthepopulationwasveryflat,withlimiteddifferencebetweenconsumptionlevelsforlargepartsofthepopulation,particularlythoseinruralareas.Overall,householdsintheaffectedregionsdemonstrat

29、edsignificantvulnerabilitiesintermsofpoverty,labourcapacityandqualityOflivingconditions(e.g.accesstosanitationorelectricity),bothinabsolutetermsandrelativetootherpartsofthepopulation.Welfaretrendspre-andpost-shockWefindavariedpicturewhenanalysingtrendsinindicatorsofpoverty,foodsecurityandvulnerabili

30、tytoshocksbetween2011and2014acrossvariousgroups.Ingeneral,therewasahighlevelofdynamismintermsofwelfarestatusovertime.Analysisindicatesthathouseholdsacrossthepopulationwerehighlyvulnerabletofoodinsecurityatanygivenmoment.Further,inboth2011and2014,thesituationremainedsimilarintermsofhumancapitalandliv

31、ingconditions.Thelackofdevelopmentinthesedimensionssuggeststhatthepopulationwashighlylikelytoremainvulnerabletopoverty,foodinsecurityandshocks.TargetingsimulationsUsingtheECVMA5wemodelthenotionalperformanceofdifferenttargetingapproachestoindicatethetypesofchoicesandtrade-offsthatmaybenecessarytomake

32、whenselectingappropriatetargetingcriteriaforresponsestosimilarcrisesinthefuture.Theapproachesselectedforthemodellingexerciseincludecategoricalapproaches(e.g.basedontheageofrecipients)andformula-basedapproaches(e.g.asimpleproxymeanstest(PMT).PerformanceatnationallevelWefirstcomparetheperformanceofthe

33、possibletargetingapproachesatthenationallevel.Theresultsshowthatthecoveragerateofthetargetpopulationisprimarilydrivenbytheoverallcoveragerate,whichinthiscaseishighestwhentargetingchildrenagedunderfiveyearsandlowestwhentargetingolderpeopleover64.Thedatashowsthatinclusionandexclusionerrorstendtobehigh

34、(over40percent)nomatterwhichselectionmethodisadopted.Thisisbecausethetargetpopulationisabroadanddiversegroup,whichisnotcomprehensivelycapturedbyanysinglehousehold-orindividual-levelcharacteristic.Unsurprisingly,theformula-basedapproachperformsmarginallybetterthancategoricalselectioncriteriaintermsof

35、selectingpoorpeople.DisaggregatingtargetingperformancebygeographiclocationWealsointroduceageographicelementtothetargetingtoassesshowthisaffectstargetingperformance.Inurbanareas,inclusionandexclusionerrorsaregenerallyhigherthanatthenationallevel,asfewerurbandwellersareinthetargetpopulation.ThePMTsele

36、ctionmethodalsoperformsbetterinurbanareasthannationallyinidentifyingpoorpeople,asthewelfaredistributionislessflatinurbanareas.Inruralareas,incontrast,inclusionandexclusionerrorsacrossallselectionmethodstendtobemarginallysmallerthanatthenationallevel,reflectingthehighershareofthetargetpopulationlivin

37、ginruralareascomparedtourbanareas.Atthesametime,duetotheflatterwelfaredistributioninruralareas,thePMTperformsslightlylesswellatselectingpoorpeople,andallselectionmethodsperformlittlebetterthanrandomwhenitcomestoidentifyingthosevulnerabletofoodinsecurity.Finally,lookingattargetingperformanceinselecte

38、dregionsofthecountry,weseethataddingageographicelement(region)tothetargetingapproachcanreduceinclusionandexclusionerrors.Overall,thesesimulationsshowthattherearenosingleorsimplecriterionthatcomprehensivelycapturesthepopulationthatisespeciallyvulnerabletodroughtordrought-relatedshocks,thoughcombining

39、household-orindividual-levelcharacteristicswithgeographictargetingcanincreasecoverageandreduceinclusionandexclusionerrors.Community-basedtargetingSomeformofcommunity-basedtargeting(CBT)wasthemainmethodactuallyusedbymostmajorprogrammesinresponsetothe2012crisis(albeitcombinedwithgeographictargeting).W

40、hileitisnotpossibletoreplicatetheresultsofCBTselectionmethodsinthedata-aswehavenowayofknowingwhocommunitieswouldselectinpractice-studiesfromNigerandelsewhereindicatethatCBTislikelytoincorporatesimilarlevelsofinclusionandexclusionerrors.WhileitmaybeexpectedthattheparticipatorynatureofCBTwouldrenderit

41、comparativelylegitimateasatargetingapproach,evidencefromNigerandelsewheresuggestthatformula-basedorcategoricaleligibilitycriteriamayalsogarnerhighlevelsoflegitimacy,perhapsevenmoresothanCBT.Forexample,researchershavefoundthatformula-basedmethodswereperceivedtobemorelegitimatethanCBTinNigerduetoperce

42、ivedmanipulationbyCBTcommitteemembersandinformationimperfectionsaffectingtheimplementationofCBT.OperationalcontextAtthelevelofoperations,keyinformantsidentifiedthemainchallengeatthetimeofthe2012droughtastheneedtoestablishinstitutionsandcoordinationmechanisms.TheECVMAandtheJointNationalSurveyonHouseh

43、oldVulnerabilitytoFoodInsecurityinNiger(EnqueteNationaleConjointesurIaVulnerabilitealns6curiteAlimentairedesMenagesauNiger-EVIAM)wereexistingsystemsthatprovidedusefulinformationonthelevelanddistributionofneed,butthestrengtheningand/orcreationofcoordinationandgovernancestructuresatbothnationalandsub-

44、nationallevelswasstillrequired.Inadditiontotheinstitutionalarchitecture,deliverysystemsrelyonunderpinninginfrastructuresuchasroads,electricity,communicationsinfrastructure,financialservicesinfrastructureandcivilregistrationsystems,alongsidehumancapitalembodiedintheskilllevelsofimplementingagentsande

45、ducationallevelsofthepopulation.The2018ECVMAsurvey(ECVMA2018)andotherdataindicatethat,inNiger,theseunderpinninginfrastructuresarenothighlydeveloped.ConclusionsInthecontextofhighlevelsofpovertyandvulnerabilitytoshocks,thereisaninherentchallengeinreachingabroadanddiversepopulationcharacterisedbyinters

46、ectingvulnerabilitiestopoverty,foodsecurity,andbothcovariateandidiosyncraticshocks.Socialassistanceprogrammingthereforehastocontendwithseveraldifferentdimensionswhenselectinganappropriateapproachtotargeting.Alignthetargetingapproachtoclearpolicyobjectives.Thereareimportantdifferencesbetweenroutineso

47、cialassistanceandemergencyresponse,particularlyintermsofobjective(i.e.mitigatingpovertyandlifecyclerisksversusaddressingimmediate,life-threateningrisks).Nevertheless,thereareoverlapsbetweenthetwopolicydomains,especiallyincontextssuchasNigerwherechronicvulnerabilitytoshocksresultsinprotractedexposure

48、toEmergency*situationssuchassevereandrecurrentfoodinsecurity.Inthesecircumstances,socialassistancepoliciesandemergencyresponsepoliciesneedtobeclearlydelineatedandplaycomplementaryroles.Thetargetingcriteriaforanygivensocialassistanceoremergencyresponsepolicyhavetoclearlyalignwiththestatedpolicyobject

49、ives.Forexample,iftheprimaryobjectiveofthepolicyistopreventmalnutrition,targetingyoungchildrenwillbemoreappropriatethantargetingpoorhouseholds.If,however,thepolicyisintendedtomitigatepoverty,formula-basedapproachestargetingmonetarilypoorpeoplemaybemoreappropriate.Aparticularconsiderationthatmaybeimportantintheselectionoftargetingcriteriaforemergencyresponseisthespeedatwhichitcanbedelivered.Communitiesneedtoclearlyunderstandandaccepttherationaleandtargetingcriteria.Peo