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1、eNavigatingIndonesianPowerSystemDecarbonisationwiththeIndonesiaJustEnergyAou 64 Ap U 山 UO:E-U-eINTERNATIONALENERGYAGENCYTheIEAexaminestheIEAmemberIEAassociationfullspectrumofenergyissuescountries:countries:includingoil,gasandcoalsupplyanddemand,renewableenergytechnologies,electricitymarkets,energyef

2、ficiency,accesstoenergy,demandsidemanagementandmuchmore.Throughitswork,theIEAadvocatespoliciesthatwillenhancethereliability,affordabilityandsustainabilityofenergyinits31membercountries,13associationcountriesandbeyond.AustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanadaCzechRepublicDenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceH

3、ungaryIrelandItalyJapanKoreaLithuaniaLuxembourgMexicoNetherlandsNewZealandNorwayPolandPortugalSlovakRepublicSpainSwedenSwitzerlandRepublicOfTurkiyeArgentinaBrazilChinaEgyptIndiaIndonesiaKenyaMoroccoSenegalSingaporeSouthAfricaThailandUkraineThispublicationandanyUnitedKingdommapincludedhereinarewithou

4、tprejudicetothestatusoforsovereigntyoveranyterritory,totheUnitedStatesdelimitationofinternationalfrontiersandboundariesandtothenameofanyterritory,TheEuropeancityorarea.CommissionalsoparticipatesintheworkoftheIEASource: IEA.International Energy AgencyWebsite: www.iea.orqeAbstractAbstractIndonesiaison

5、eofthefastestgrowingeconomiesintheworldandwithitsrapidlygrowingenergydemand,abundantenergyandmineralresources,itissettoplayakeyroleintheglobaleconomicandenergylandscape.Decarbonisingitspowersystemhasbeenidentifiedasakeyenablertoachieveitspledgefornetzeroemissionsby2060,ascoalpowerdominatesitselectri

6、citymix.TosupportIndonesianpowersectordecarbonisationefforts,theJustEnergyTransitionPartnershipwasestablishedduringaG20summitinBali,inNovember2022.ThefirstdeliverableoftheJustEnergyTransitionPartnership,whichwassupportedbytheIEA5istheComprehensiveInvestmentandPolicyPlan,publishedinNovember2023.Itdet

7、ailsanenergytransitionpathwayforthepowersector,proposespolicyreforms,providesaframeworkforajustenergytransitionandoutlinesfinancingneedsandrequirements.Inthisreport,wetakestockofthecurrentpowersectorlandscapeofIndonesia,summariseIEA,sroleintheJETPSecretariatandcontributionstotheworkthatledtotheJETP,

8、sComprehensiveInvestmentandPolicyPlan.WealsoprovideanoverviewoftheJETPpathwayaswellasanalysisandrecommendationsfortheeffectivedecarbonisationofIndonesianpowersector.Acknowledgements,contributorsandcreditsThisreportwaspreparedbytheRenewableIntegrationandSecureElectricity(RISE)UnitintheintheDirectorat

9、eofEnergyMarketsandSecurity(EMS).TheprincipalauthorwasIsaacPortugalRosas,withmajorcontributionsfromZoeHungerford,JavierJorqueraCopier,AxelPriambodo(consultant).PabloHevia-Koch5HeadoftheRenewableIntegrationandSecureElectricityUnit,directedthisreport.ThankstoAstridDumond,IsabelleNonain-SemelinandJethr

10、oMullenoftheCommunicationsandDigitalOffice(CDO)fortheirrolesinproducingthisreport.ZoeHungerfordeditedthereport.ThereportwouldnothavebeenpossiblewithoutthesupportfromMichaelWaldron,KieranClarke,VrindaTiwari,RanyaOualid,CraigHart,YuNagatomi,JavierJorqueraCopier,KeithEverhart,EnriqueGutierrezTavarez,Re

11、naKuwahata,JacquesWarichet5JuliaGuyon(ex-IEA)andMinnaGenser(ex-IEA),allwhichprovidedsupportandcontributionstothecollaborationwithIndonesia.ThisreportwasproducedwiththefinancialassistanceoftheEuropeanUnionaspartofitsfundingoftheCleanEnergyTransitionsinEmergingEconomiesprogramme(CETEE-2)withintheIEAsC

12、leanEnergyTransitionsProgramme.ThisreportreflectstheviewsoftheInternationalEnergyAgencySecretariatbutdoesnotnecessarilyreflectthoseofindividualIEAmembercountriesortheEuropeanUnion.TheIEAmakesnorepresentationorwarranty,expressorimplied,inrespecttothereportscontents(includingitscompletenessoraccuracy)

13、andshallnotberesponsibleforanyuseof,orrelianceon,thereport.donesiaJustEneiExecutivesummaryThedecarbonisationofIndonesiasenergysysteminvolvesasignificanttransformation.Itimpliesshiftingawayfromfossilfuels,whichin2021accountedfor80%intheelectricitymix,tohighersharesofcleanenergygeneration.Thisshouldbe

14、implementedwhileensuringeconomicgrowthandequitableenergyaccesstoitspopulationof276millionpeople.SeveralnationalandinternationaleffortsunderpinIndonesiasdecarbonisationobjectives.Nationally,theEnergyLawNo.30of2007andthe2014NationalEnergyPlanguidetheIndonesiangovernmentseffortstoreducefossilfueldepend

15、ence.ThesearecomplementedbypoliciesaimedatphasingoutfossilfuelsubsidiesinlinewithIndonesiangoaltoachievenetzeroemissionsby2060.In2022,aspartoftheinitiativeswithinthecountrysG20presidency,theIndonesiangovernmentalongwiththeInternationalPartnersGroup(IPG)releasedtheJointStatementontheJustEnergyTransit

16、ionPartnership(JETP).TheUnitedStatesandJapanco-ledthegroup,withmembersincludingCanada,Denmark,theEuropeanUnion,France,Germany,Italy,Norway,andtheUnitedKingdom.TheJETPaimstomobiliseUSD20b川ionoverthenext3-5yearstohelpIndonesiapursueanacceleratedjustenergytransitionthatsupportsatrajectorythatkeepsawarm

17、inglimitof1.5abovepre-industriallevelswithinreach.TheIPGmembersaimtomobiliseUSD10billion,whiletheGlasgowFinancialAllianceforNetZero(GFANZ)WorkingGroupwillworktomobiliseandfacilitateatleastadditionalUSD10billioninprivatefinancesubjecttocatalyticpublicfinanceandwithcollectiveambitionbyallparties.TheGF

18、ANZincludesaninitialsetofinstitutionssuchasBankofAmerica,Citi,DeutscheBank,HSBC,Macquarie,MUFG,andStandardChartered.TheJETPintendstoalsoleveragetheexpertise,resources,andoperationsofthemultilateraldevelopmentbanks.TheJETPdevelopedacomprehensiveinvestmentplan,aimingtoreachapeakinpowersectoremissionsn

19、otabove290MtCO2by2030andachievingnetzeropowersectoremissionsby2050.Intandem,itseekstospeed-uprenewablesdeployment,aimingforaminimumrenewableshareof34%oftotalelectricitygenerationby2030.Inordertomanagetheday-to-dayimplementationofIndonesiasenergytransition,theIPGandGovernmentofIndonesialaunchedtheSec

20、retariatfortheJETP.TheSecretariat,whichishostedbytheMinistryofEnergyandMineralResources(MEMR)andsupportedbytheAsianDevelopmentBank(ADB)1servesasthecoordinatorforinternalandexternalstakeholdersontheJETP,andwouldplayanimportantplanningandprojectdevelopmentfunctionfortheJETP.Currentpoliciesdriveanincre

21、aseinpowerdemandTheComprehensiveInvestmentandPolicyPlan(CIPP)forIndonesiaprojectsasignificantincreaseinon-gridelectricitydemand,withanannualgrowthrateof6.4%in2022-2030and5.8%in2022-2050.Thisisdrivenbyrisingincomes,highercoolingdemand,industrialisation,andincreasedelectrificationofmobility.IntheCIPP,

22、expandingindustrialcapabilities,transportelectrificationandhydrogenproductionleadtoashiftinelectricitydemand.In2022,theresidentialsectorconsumed54%ofon-gridelectricity,thecommercialsector30%,andtheindustrialsector16%.By2050,thesesharesareexpectedtoshiftto36%forresidential,29%forcommercial,and23%fori

23、ndustrialcustomers,withtransportandhydrogenproductionaccountingfortheremaining12%.Energyefficiencyanddemandresponseareidentifiedaskeymeasurestomitigatetheimpactofenduseelectrificationaswellasinchangesonthesystemspeakload.IntheCIPP,energyefficiencyanddemandresponseareidentifiedaskeymeasurestomitigate

24、theimpactofend-useelectrificationandchangesonthesystemspeakload.However,theanalysisfallsshortinprovidingathoroughevaluationoftheircontribution,indicatinganeedformorein-depthanalysisusingsophisticatedstochastic-basedapproaches.TheJETPaimstoacceleratedecarbonisationTheJETPscenarioenvisionsasignificant

25、increaseinrenewablecapacity,whichrepresentedabout9GWon-gridcapacityin2022.By2030,solarPVandwindareexpectedtoreach29GWand9GW,respectively,whereashydropowerremainsthemainsourceofrenewableenergybyinstalledcapacitywith14GW.Lookingto2050,thescenarioforeseessubstantialexpansion,withsolarPVdominatingatover

26、260GW(55%oftotalinstalledcapacity),windpowerreachingabout44GW,andhydropowersurpassing65GW.WhiletheJETPscenariooutlinesanambitiousdecarbonisationpathway,thereareconcernsthatfastindustrialdevelopment,particularlyinnickelmining,mayleadtonewoff-gridcoal-firedplantsoutsideofthepowersystemdevelopmentplan,

27、posingariskoflocked-inemissionsfordecades.Acomprehensivestudyoftheoff-gridpowersystemiskeytoanticipateandmitigateitsimpact.AchievingtheJETPscenariodependsonsupportivepoliciesforsolarandwinddeployment,includingprovidingthemwithafavourablefinancialenvironmentandreducingrequirementstouselocallymanufact

28、uredgoodsordomesticallyprovidedservices.ToensurethatJETP,sobjectivesaremet,itiskeytoprioritisesolarandwinddeploymentandestablishguardrailsaroundthesetechnologies.Thisinvolvesimplementingmeasuressuchasprioritydispatch,addressingpotentialbottlenecksinconnectionqueues,andenhancingoverallsystemoperation

29、s,includingcloser-to-real-timegenerationschedulinganddispatch.ImprovingflexibilityandsystemoperationsIntheJETPscenario,flexibilityprovisioninthepowersectorevolvesalongsidethepowersystem.Challengesrelatedtosystemadequacyandflexibilitycanbemitigatedwitharangeofsolutionsincluding:improvedpowersystemope

30、rations,dispatchandscheduling;andcontractualflexibilityandresponsivenessofexistingthermalplants.Overtime,demand-sidemeasures,suchastime-differentiatedtariffsandflexibleEVcharging,arehighlightedfortheirpotentialtoenhanceflexibility,thoughtheformerisnotexplicitlymodelledinthescenario.UndertheJETPscena

31、rio,meetinggenerationadequacyrequirementsshiftsfromtraditionalpowerplantstovariablerenewables,storageanddemand-sideresponse.Tosupportthis,severalenhancementsinpowersystemoperationswillbeneededtoensuresecureoperationatlowestcost.Thecountryshouldadoptthelatestplanningtechniques,basedonstochasticassess

32、ments,whichprovideaclearerpictureofthecontributionofvariousinvestmentsingrids,storage,andgenerationtowardsasecuresystem.Inoperations,thecountryshouldreduceitsminimumreservecapacitymarginfrom30%in2023to10%by2040anddeploystorageandsmartEVcharging,whichwillbothincreasetheamountofvariablerenewablesthatc

33、anbedeployedeconomically.FlexibleEVchargingcouldpotentiallyreduceweeklypeakloadby10-15%.EnsuringaffordabilityandresilienceThecurrentrelianceofIndonesianpowersystemonfossilfuelsandparticularlycoal-firedgenerationcreatesconstraintsthatshouldbeconsideredwhendevisingadecarbonisationstrategy.Thefollowing

34、actionsshouldbeprioritisedtosupportdecarbonisationinIndonesiatakingintoaccounttheexistingthermalfleet: Reviewthestructureofcurrentcoalpowerpurchaseagreements(PPAs)todefineaphase-outstrategy. UnderstandfinancialimplicationsforPLNofreducingoperationoftheircoalfleet.Indonesiaspowerdecarbonisationneedsa

35、phasedcoalphase-out,includingreducedoperationofprivateandPLN-ownedplants.ThisrequiresunderstandingPPAs,finances,subsidies,fuelcontracts,andassetconditionstoavoiddeadlockandalignwithPLNsgoals.Ensuretheprovisionofflexibilityisproperlyremunerated. Designrobustscenarioswithstochasticprocessestoimprovesy

36、stemplanning.Chapter 1. TheIndonesianenergylandscapeIndonesiaisasignificantplayerintheglobalenergylandscapeIndonesiaisasignificantplayerintheglobalenergylandscape.ThecountryistheSiXteenth-IareeSteconomyintheworld,anditseconomywasthefourth-fastestQroWinClG20memberin2022,behindonlytheRepublicofTurkiye

37、5IndiaandSaudiArabia.ThecornerstoneofIndonesianenergysectorhashistoricallybeenitsrichnaturalresourceendowment,withabundantreservesofcoal,oil,andnaturalgas,particularlycoal.Indonesiaisthefourth-largestcoalproducerandoneofthebiggestcoalexportersintheworld.In2021,coal-firedgenerationmadeup61%ofthegener

38、ationmix,andthecountryscoalexportsreachedapproximatev470millionmetrictonnesin2022(about6%ofglobalcoalconsumption).Intotal,fossilfuelsmakeup81%oftheelectricitymix,andasaresult,Indonesiaisgrapplingwithhighcarbonintensityinitselectricitysector.ThecountrysEnergyLawNo.30of2007andthe2014NationalEnergyPlan

39、(NEP14)havesettargetstoachieveamoresustainableelectricitymix,aimingtoincreasethecontributionofrenewableenergyto23%oftotalelectricityconsumptionby2025andatleast31%by2050.Thesetargetsaimtoreducecarbonemissions,mitigateclimatechange,andaddresstheenvironmentalimpactsoffossilfueluse.Indonesiahasalsocommi

40、ttedtoachieveeconomy-widenetzeroemissionsby2060.ThemainchallengesofthepowersysteminIndonesiainclude: Highrelianceonfossilfuels.Indonesiaspowersystemisheavilyreliantonfossilfuels,particularlycoal,whichhasledtohighcarbonintensityandsignificantgreenhousegasemissions. Rapidlygrowingenergydemand.Thecount

41、rysrapideconomicgrowthandpopulationexpansionhaveresultedinasubstantialincreaseinenergydemand,whichthepowersystemwillneedtomeetreliablyandatlowcost. Emissionsreductionandenergytransition.Indonesiawillneedtoreduceemissionstofightclimatechangeandreducelocalairpollutants,whichrequiresareductionincoal-fi

42、redgeneration. Infrastructuredevelopment.Indonesiawillneedtomodernisesystemcomponentstoensuresecurepowersystemoperation,whichwillrequiresignificantcapitalinvestments.IndonesianenergytransitioncanbesupportedbycollaborationbetweentheIndonesiangovernment,internationalpartners,energycompanies,andlocalan

43、dinternationalstakeholders.Suchcollaborationisneededtosteerpolicyevolution,investmentsinrenewableenergyinfrastructure,strategiestophaseoutcoalgeneration,andestablishregulatoryframeworkstosupportthecleanenergytransition.TheJustEnergyTransitionPartnership(JETP)agreement,signedinNovember2022,aimstoacce

44、leratethecountrysenergytransitionthroughapartnershipbetweenIndonesiaandtheinternationalcommunity,ledbytheUnitedStatesandJapan,supportedbytheUnitedKingdom,Germany,France,theEuropeanUnion,Canada,Italy,Norway,andDenmark.TheJETPservesasahubtochannelinvestmentsandmanagetechnicalguidancebetweenthevariouss

45、takeholders.Itemphasisestheneedforadetailedroadmaptoreducecoal-firedpowergenerationandincreasetheshareofrenewableenergyinIndonesiaspowergenerationto34%by2030toalignpowersectoremissionswiththe1.5target,aidedbyaninitialinvestmentofUSD20billionoverthenextthreetofiveyears.TheIndonesiangovernmenthasestab

46、lishedtheJETPSecretariattomanageday-to-dayimplementationofIndonesiasenergytransition.Itintendstodevelopinvestmentandpolicyplanstosupportthecountryinachievingitsenergytransitionobjectives.TheSecretariatissupportedbyfourindependentworkinggroups-withtheTechnicalWorkingGroupledbytheIEA.Thisreportgiveste

47、chnicalinsightsintothedevelopmentofIndonesianpowersectortransitionplanundertheJETPtakingplacein2023,basedontheIEAsparticipation.Servingasapivotalhub,itnotonlychannelsinvestmentsbutalsoservesasabeaconfortechnicalguidance.Together,thesecollaborativeactionspaveIndonesiaspathtowardasustainable,low-carbo

48、nenergyfuture,shapinganarrativeofprogressandenvironmentalresponsibility.ReportScopeandstructureThisreportpresentsanexplorationoftheJustEnergyTransitionPartnership(JETP),ledbyglobalpartnersandsupportedbytheInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA),highlightingitspivotalroleinphasingoutcoalenergyanddirectinginve

49、stmentstowardsrenewableinfrastructure.Thereportisorganisedintosixparts.Chapter1setsthesceneforIndonesiasenergysystemanditsmainchallengesahead.Chapter2focusesontheintricaciesofitspowersystem.Chapter3describesthecreationandmaingoalsoftheIndonesianJustEnergyTransitionPartnership,andChapter4summarisesIEA,sactivitiesinsupportingtheJETPprocess.Finally,Chapter5providesastocktakeofthed