RMI+中国能源行业多维度的甲烷减排路径-英_市场营销策划_重点报告202301202_doc.docx

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1、Z、RMReportSeriesonMethaneEmissionsControlMethaneEmissionsMitigationApproachesacrossMultipleDimensionsinChinasEnergySectorExecutiveSummaryES/December2023RMIAboutRMIRMlisanindependentnonprofit,foundedin1982asRockyMountainInstitute,thattransformsglobalenergysystemsthroughmarket-drivensolutionstoalignwi

2、tha1.5oCfutureandsecureaclean,prosperous,zero-carbonfutureforall.Weworkintheworldsmostcriticalgeographiesandengagebusinesses,policymakers,communities,andnongovernmentalorganizationstoidentifyandscaleenergysysteminterventionsthatwillcutgreenhousegasemissionsatleast50percentby2030.RMIhasofficesinBasal

3、tandBoulder,Colorado;NewYorkCity;Oakland,California;Washington,D.C.;andinBeijing,PeoplesRepublicofChina.AuthorsandAcknowledgmentsAuthorsMinhuiGao,YihanHaozTingLi,WeiWangOtherContributorsQiangLiu,XinSuAuthorsarelistedalphabeticallybylastname.AllauthorsarefromRMIunlessotherwisenoted.ContactWeiWangzwwa

4、ngrmi.orgCitationRMl,MethaneEmissionsMitigationApproachesacrossMultipleDimensionsinChinasEnergyfSector,RMI,2023,https:/rmi.org/insight/methane-emissions-mitigation-approaches-across-multiple-dimensions-in-chinas-energy-sector/AcknowledgmentsWewouldliketoexpresssincerethankstothefollowingexpertsforth

5、eirinsightandcomments:FeiTeng,ProfessorandDeputyDirector,InstituteofEnergyandEnvironmentalEconomics,TsinghuaUniversityXinXu,DeputyDirector,EnergySecurityResearchInstitute,ChinaCoalInformationInstitute,MinistryofEmergencyManagementQianLiu,Director,DepartmentofResearch,theSustainabilityStandardsResear

6、chCenter,CentralUniversityofFinanceandEconomicsJunlianGao,AssociateProfessor,DepartmentofManagementScienceandEngineering,ChinaUniversityofMiningandTechnologySpecialthankstotheGlobalMethaneHubThecontentsofthisreportdonotrepresenttheviewsoftheaboveexpertsandinstitutions,aswellasthoseoftheprojectpropon

7、ents.ExecutiveSummaryMethane(CH4)isthesecondmostabundantgreenhousegasaftercarbondioxide(CO2).Ithascontributedtoover30%ofthecurrentriseinglobaltemperaturesincetheindustrialrevolution.Theinternationalcommunityhasreachedaconsensustotacklemethaneemissions,leadingtomultilateralandbiliteralcooperationonme

8、thanemitigation.TheGlobalMethanePledge,initiatedbytheUnitedStatesandtheEuropeanUnionduringthe26thUNClimateChangeConferencein2021,hasover150participatingcountries,pledgingcollectiveeffortstoachievea30%reductioninglobalmethaneemissionsby2030zrelativeto2020levels.Recently,ChinaandtheUnitedStatesdecided

9、tooperationalizetheWorkingGrouponEnhancingClimateActioninthe2020s.TheWorkingGroupwillfocusontheareasofcooperationthathavebeenidentifiedintheSunnylandsStatementandtheGlasgowDeclaration,includingonmethane.Overtheyears,Chinahasbeenactivelyengagedinmethanemitigation,implementingarangeofpoliciesandeconom

10、icmeasurestocurbtherapidgrowthofmethaneemissions.InNovember2023,theChinesegovernmentmadepublicthenationalactionplandedicatedtomethaneemissionscontrol,addressingtoimproveemissionsmonitoringandsupervisionsystemsformethane,andoutliningmitigationmeasuresinthefieldsofenergy,agriculture,waste,andwastewate

11、rtreatment.Thisactionplan,servingasChina/sfirstnationalleveldocumentdesignedformethaneemissionscontrol,Willfurtheraccelerateitsmethanemitigationefforts.Chinasmethaneemissionsoriginateprimarilyfromactivitiesrelatedtofossilfuelproductionanduse,ricecultivation,livestock,andwastemanagement.Amongthesesou

12、rces,theenergysectorconstitutesthelargestcontributor,accountingfor46%ofthetotalmethaneemissionsinChinaJComparedwithothersectors,theenergyindustryhasmorematuremitigationtechnologies,makingittheprimaryfocusatthecurrentstage.Currently,Chinastillfacesthreemajorchallengesinmethaneemissionscontrolwithinth

13、eenergysector: ThemajorityofmethaneemissionsinChina,senergysectorstemfromcoalproduction.AsthetotalfossilenergyconsumptioninChinahasnotyetpeaked,thereisaneedtoeffectivelymanageandbalanceenergyproduction,energyconsumptionandmethanemitigation. Unevendevelopmentofmitigationtechnologiesintheenergyindustr

14、y,coupledwithinsufficientcosteffectivenessformajoremissionssources,makesitchallengingtoattractinvestmentformitigationprojects. Apartfrompolicyandtechnologicalsupport,methanemitigationrequiresconcreteactionsfromthecoalindustryandoilandgascompanies.Greaterawarenessandincentivesarecrucialtocatalyzeinit

15、iativeswithinChineseenergyenterprisesandrelatedindustries.Toaddressthepreviouslymentionedchallenges,RMIproposesmeasuresacrossfivedimensionstoacceleratemethanemitigationinChinasenergysector.Theenergysectorshouldoptimizeenergyproductionandconsumptionbyacceleratingenergytransitionandestablishingprocure

16、mentprinciples,therebymaximizingthesynergisticeffectofenergytransitiononmethaneemissionsreduction.Itshouldenhancetheeconomicviabilityandapplicabilityofmitigationtechnologiesthroughmarketmechanismstopromoteprojectconstructionandfullyrealizetheclimatevalueofmethanereduction.Itshouldbreakdowninformatio

17、nbarriersthroughimprovedinformationdisclosure.Itshouldalsoboostmethanegovernancethroughincreasedinternationalcooperation,facilitatingcross-sectorcomparisonsandtriggeringcompaniestoactivelyengageinmitigationeffortsandenhancingChina,sparticipation,contributionandleadershipintheprocessofglobalclimatego

18、vernance.iInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA),GlobalMethaneTracker2023,uFebruary2023,https:/www.iea.org/reports/global-methane-tracker-2023.Dimension1:EnergyTransitionThesubstantialdomesticdemandforcoal,oil,andnaturalgasproductshasdrivenupstreamactivitiesrelatedtotheextraction,processing,andtransportatio

19、noffossilenergysources,resultinginsignificantCH4emissions.TheenergyconsumptionstructureacrossvarioussectorsinChinaisacrucialfactoraffectingCH4emissions.Intheprocessofenergyprocessingandconversion,activitiessuchascoal-basedelectricitygenerationandcokeproductioncontributesignificantamountsofenergymeth

20、aneemissions,withcurrentlevelsat47%and17%,respectively.Attheend-uselevel,existingproductionprocessesinthesteel,chemicals,andcementindustriesnecessitatesubstantialfuelandrawmaterialconsumption,whichcontributetomethaneemissionswithpercentagesof21%,14%,and8%,respectively,makingtheindustrialsectorthelar

21、gestcontributor.Concurrently,theresidentialandtransportationsectors,drivenbyheating,cooking,andtransportationdemands,alsoconsumesignificantquantitiesoffossilfuels,contributing13%and5%tomethaneemissions,respectively(seeExhibit1).Exhibit1FlowChartofMethaneEmissionsfromFossilFuelProductionCIL from Oi 1

22、 SystemProductionDirect Use /-OfCoal .一BleatSupplvCulturalGayfiqupficntion-jDirectUseofNaturalCastilRefiningandCoal-to-LiquidsircctUscofOilEnergy Processing and ConversiofiFinal CnsuationRMIGraphic.Source:IEAzhttps:/www.iea.org/reports/global-methane-tracker-2023;NationalBureauofStatistics,Transitio

23、nmeasuresinkeyindustries,particularlytheimplementationoflow-carbontechnologiesinthepower,steel,andchemicalsindustries,havethepotentialtodirectlyreduceCo2emissionsandtocollaborativelydecreasemethaneemissionsfromtheproductionsideoffossilfuels.AccordingtoestimatesbyRMI,by2060zmeasuresinsixmajorsectors(

24、i.e.,electricity,steelzchemicals,cement,transportation,andresidential)areexpectedtocontributetoa61%reductioninenergy-relatedmethanecomparedwiththe2020baseline.Notablyzthepowerandsteelindustries,whicharemajorcoal-consumingsectors,willhavethemostsignificantimpact,drivingmethanereductionsof41%and12%,re

25、spectively.Duetothesubstantialshort-term(pre-2030)demandforfossilenergyinvariousindustries,itisprojectedthatdomesticcoalconsumptionwillpeakandslowlydeclineby2030.Thecontributiontomethanereductionfromthetransitionmeasuresinthesixmajorkeyenergy-consumingindustriesby2030isestimatedtobeonly7%.Thisimplie

26、sthatadditionaleffortswillstillberequiredtocontrolmethaneintheshortterm,includingoptimizingexistingresources,promotingresearchandapplicationofkeytechnologies,encouragingcorporateaction,andenhancinginformationtransparency.Dimension2:ProcurementPrinciplesMethaneemissionsfromtheproductionofcoal,oil,and

27、naturalgasvarysignificantlybetweenproductionregionsduetogeologicalconditions,extractionmethods,implementationofmitigationtechnologies,anddifferingmanagementlevels(seeExhibit2).Whilemeetingtheoverallconsumptionoffossilfuels,shiftingconsumptiontowardproducingregionswithloweremissionsintensitycanhelpre

28、ducemethane.Exhibit2MethaneEmissionsIntensityinMajorFossilEnergyProductionSitesNaturalGasRMIGraphic.Source:GlobalEnergyMonitor,https:/globalenergymonitor.org/projects/global-coal-mine-tracker/;RMIanalysisWiththeongoingtrendofenergytransition,ChinaScoalconsumptionisexpectedtocontinuallydecrease,resul

29、tinginanincreasedpotentialforproductionlayoutoptimization.Underthesecircumstances,theabilitytomonitorandidentifythemethaneemissionsperformanceofvariousminingregionscanserveasatooltoguidemethanemanagementwithincoalenterprises.Inthiscontext,ifcoalconsumersestablishdedicatedprocurementprinciplesbasedon

30、methaneintensityandprioritizethepurchasefromregionswithlowerintensity,theycansignificantlyinfluencemethaneemissionsthroughtheirconsumptionactivities.Exhibit 3AccordingtoRMIestimates,implementingthelow-intensityprocurementprincipleinmetallurgicalcoalmines,asopposedtoprioritizinghigh-intensitycoalmine

31、s,canleadtoasubstantial27%reductioninmethaneemissions.Similarly,forthermalcoalmines,therecanbeanotable76%differenceinmethaneemissionsbetweenlow-intensityandhigh-intensityprocurementscenarios.Chinahasthepotentialtoeffectivelyleverageitsabundantcoalresources(seeExhibit3).Bydrivingchangesincorporatecon

32、sumptionpreferencesandcontinuallyadvancingtheoptimizationofcoalresourcesbasedonmethaneintensity,supportedbybothregionalandnationalpolicies,Chinacaneffectivelypromoteemissionsreductionwithinthecoalindustry.MethaneEmissionsfromChina,sCoalMinesunderDifferentProcurementPrinciplesCoalMineCapacity(Mt)RMlG

33、raphic.Source:GlobalEnergyMonitor,htter;JulianGaoetal.,https:/iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326ac38d8;RMIanalysisO/3)A=SUc一X。WW-soInadditiontodomesticregulations,whenprocuringimportedfossilfuels,Chinahasthepotentialtoleverageitsinfluencebyrequiringsupplierstofurnishdatathatverifiestheiral

34、ignmentwithChinasintensityandpolicycompliancestandards.Thisapproachcouldpotentiallyincentivizefossilfuelproducingnationstointensifytheireffortstoreducemethaneemissions.AccordingtoRMIestimates,byimposingChinasmethaneemissionsintensityasaconstraintcriterionforfossilfuelimports,providedimportvolumesrem

35、ainconstant,theimplementationofalow-intensityprinciplecouldyielda30%reductioninmethaneemissionsattributedtoimportedfossilfuels.Fromacorporateperspective,Chineseenterprisesengagedinfossilfuelconsumptioncanemployemissionscertificationplatformsastoolstofacilitatetheselectiveprocurementoflow-methaneinte

36、nsityproducts,consequentlyaffectingareductioningreenhousegasemissionsthroughouttheirupstreamsupplychains.Dimension3:MarketMechanismsThemethanegeneratedduringtheundergroundcoalminingprocessisapivotalfocusformethanereductionwithinthecoalindustryandcanbeeffectivelymitigatedthroughtheimplementationofrec

37、overyandutilizationtechnologies.Keyemissionsreductiontechnologiesincludethosetargetinglow-concentrationcoalminemethane(CMM)andventilationairmethane(VAM).Duetotheirsuboptimaleconomicviability,additionalincentivemeasuresarenecessarytodrivetheconstructionandoperationoftheseprojects.China,sCertifiedEmis

38、sionReduction(CCER)schemeoffersavaluablesupplementtothenationalemissionstradingsystem.ByincludingCMMandVAMprojectswithintheCCERmarket,projectoperatorscanobtainverifiedemissionsreductionsandtradethemwithparticipantsinthecarbonmarket,therebygainingdirecteconomicbenefits,asshowninExhibit4.Exhibit4Appli

39、cationofCoalSectorMethaneCCERProjectintheCarbonMarketCCERVerificationandTradeCoalSectorMethaneUtilizationProjectCarbonMarketComplianceCompanyRMlGraphic.Source:RMIanalysisIntheabsenceoftheCCERmarket,themethaneabatementcostsforVAMutilizationandVAM-CMMcomprehensiveutilizationareapproximatelylz400RMBper

40、tonofmethaneand300RMBpertonofmethane,respectively.WhentheseprojectsparticipateintheCCERmarket,costsgraduallydecreaseastheCCERtransactionpricecontinuestorise.WhentheCCERpricereaches52RMBpertonofcarbondioxideequivalent(CO2e),bothVAMutilizationprojectsandVAM-CMMmixedutilizationcanbeachievedatnonetcost(

41、seeExhibit5).In2022,theaveragenationalcarbonpriceinChinawas55RMBpertonofCO2e.Thisindicatesthatthecarbonmarketcanserveasafoundationaldriverforpromotingmethaneutilizationinthecoalsector.Lookingahead,asmoreindustriesareintegratedintothecarbonmarketandcarbonquotasbecomemorestringent,carbonpriceswillrise

42、.This,inturn,willdriveanincreaseinCCERpricesandcreateadditionalprofitforCMMutilizationprojects.Exhibit5ImpactofCCERPricesontheEconomicViabilityofDifferentMethaneUtilizationProjects2,000(i,0 SiS O O WUJqvI。VAMUtilization-VAM-CMMMixedUtilization1.ow-ConcentrationCMMPowerGenerationHigh-ConcentrationCMM

43、PowerGenerationNote:Gasconcentrationthresholdsforemissionsreductiontechnologiesareasfollows:VAMutilization:Cc40.75%VAM-CMMmixedutilization:VAMCch40.75%,CMMCoU8%1.ow-concentrationCMMpowergeneration:8%Ccm30%High-concentrationCMMpowergeneration:Ccw30%Thisassumesthatlow-andhigh-concentrationCMMpowergene

44、rationprojectsarenotparticipatingintheCCERmarket.RMIGraphic.Source:RMIanalysisAsmoresectorsareprogressivelyincorporated,thenationalcarbonmarketwillencompassapproximately8billiontonsofCo2emissions.Atthatpoint,theCCERmarketsscaleisexpectedtoreach400milliontonsofCO2e.AccordingtoRMIestimates,by2030,CCER

45、projectsrelatedtoCMMandVAMareprojectedtoexceed14billionRMBintotalscale,covering30%ofthetotalCCERdemand(seeExhibit6).Thiscontributionisexpectedtoresultina21%reductioninmethaneemissionswithinthecoalindustry.Exhibit6CCERProjectsScaleforCMMandVAMUtilizationRMl Graphic. Source: RMI analysisCOa- SeC-Or Mg

46、hane CCER Market SiZe as PerCen-age OfTOta- CCER Demand(UOB mws) ZeB 山。 JoPaS760。Coal Sector Methane CCER Market Size - % of Total CCER DemandDimension4:InformationDisclosureInformationdisclosurerelatedtomethaneemissionsprovidesseveralbenefits,includingenhancedcorporateperformance,reducedregulatoryr

47、isks,supportforgovernmentdecision-making,increasedsocietalawareness,andthefoundationforcorporateparticipationinmarketmechanismsanddeeperinternationalcooperation.InChina,coalcompaniescurrentlyhavelimitedmethaneemissionsdisclosure.Onlyafewcompanieshavesharedinformationonmethanerecoveryandutilization,l

48、eavingsubstantialgapsindisclosure.Incontrasttocoalcompanies,ChineseoilandgascompanieshaveahigherlevelOfinformationdisclosure.LargeoilandgascompaniesinChinahavesetemissionsreductiontargetsandaredisclosingtheirprogressthroughenvironmental,social,andgovernance(ESG)reportsandinternationalplatforms.Comparedwithinternationalcounterparts,Chinesecompaniescouldfurtherimprovethelevelofdetailintheirdisclosures,(seeExhibits7and8).RMIsuggeststhatChineseenergycompaniesenhancetheirtransparency,particularlyconcerningdisclosureinemissionsred