暨南大学项目管理chapter 7 managing risk.ppt

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1、管理学院 School of Management,佟瑞 Edward Tong，MPM，MBA,2023/11/18,1,Edward TongCopyright reserved Jinan University,73,Where We Are Now,2023/11/18,Edward Tong,Jinan University,4,What is Risk?,2023/11/18,Edward Tong,Jinan University,5,Definition Of Risk,Risk=f(Likelihood,Impact),Likelihood is the probabilit

2、y of occurrenceImpact is the amount at stake,Event,2023/11/18,Edward Tong,Jinan University,6,Risk Defined,Risk is any potential threat or occurrence which may prevent you from achieving your defined business objectives.It may affecttimescales,cost,quality,or benefits.All projects are exposed to risk

3、 in some form,butthe extent of which will vary considerably.,2023/11/18,Edward Tong,Jinan University,7,What is Risk Management?,“Generally accepted”definition.The process of identifying,analyzing andresponding to risk events during the projectSEI version.1Continuous risk management is a software eng

4、ineering practice with processes,methods and tools for managing project risks,2023/11/18,Edward Tong,Jinan University,8,The Million Dollar Question,Is risk a bad thing?,2023/11/18,Edward Tong,Jinan University,9,Uncertainty=Risk or Opportunity,2023/11/18,Edward Tong,Jinan University,10,What is an Unc

5、ertainty?,It is the sum ofunknowns for each project,2023/11/18,Edward Tong,Jinan University,11,Uncertainty,Opportunity,and Risk,Start Project,CompletionOutcome(Product),Unknown(Uncertainty),Unfavorable(Risk),Favorable(Opportunity),2023/11/18,Edward Tong,Jinan University,12,The Real World,Identify,An

6、alyze,Plan,Track,Control,Communicate,PM 508-Session One,2023/11/18,Edward Tong,Jinan University,13,The Real World,Communicate,Communicate,Communicate,Communicate,Risk management,Over and Over and Over Again.,2023/11/18,Edward Tong,Jinan University,14,Continuous Risk Management Process,ObtainSponsors

7、hip,EstablishProb/ImpactDefinitions,SelectRisks toMitigate,SelectMitigationMethods,CreateTracking&Control Plan,CompleteCost/BenefitAnalysis,TakeCorrectiveActions,Adjust Control Plan as Reqd,CloseRisks,Risk Management,2023/11/18,Edward Tong,Jinan University,15,Example of Risk Categories,Plan,Design,T

8、est,Implement,Total Risk,Based on Project Phases-,2023/11/18,Edward Tong,Jinan University,16,Example of Risk Categories,People,Market,Technical,Financial,Total Risk,Tailored to Product Development Project,2023/11/18,Edward Tong,Jinan University,17,Impact Definition Example,Hi Performance,Cost,&Sched

9、ule Impacted Medium Cost&Schedule ImpactedLow 低Schedule Impacted,Risk Management,2023/11/18,Edward Tong,Jinan University,18,Probability DefinitionExample,Hi More than 70%likelyMedium 30-70%likelyLow Less than 30%likely,Risk Management,2023/11/18,Edward Tong,Jinan University,19,Simple Risk Matrix,3,6

10、,9,2,4,6,1,2,3,Low Med Hi,Probability,Impact,HiMed Low,List of Risks(in Categories),Risk Management,2023/11/18,Edward Tong,Jinan University,20,3.Major Impact on project schedule or cost.Major impact on benefits.2.Major impact on project schedule or cost.Minor impact on benefits1.Minor impact on proj

11、ect schedule or cost.No impact on benefits.,Severity of Impact,Unlikely15%,FairlyLikely,VeryLikely,Almost Certain 85%,Low,Low,HIGH,Medium,Medium,Medium,Medium,Medium,HIGH,Medium,Medium,HIGH,Likelihood of Event Happening,Source:Buttrick,R.(1997).The Project Workout.Pitman,UK,More Complex Risk Matrix,

12、Risk Management,2023/11/18,Edward Tong,Jinan University,21,Another ExampleRisk Matrix,Risk Management,2023/11/18,Edward Tong,Jinan University,22,Ways to Respond to a Given Risk,Accept Mitigate Avoid,PM 508-Session Three,2023/11/18,Edward Tong,Jinan University,23,PMP test b,Which technique is used mo

13、st frequently in risk identification?A.InterviewingB.BrainstormingC.SimulationD.Decision-tree,2023/11/18,Edward Tong,Jinan University,24,PMP test c,Which of the following is NOT an example of external risks?-A.InflationB.StrikeC.Poor staff assignmentD.Change of government,2023/11/18,Edward Tong,Jina

14、n University,25,Insurance(etc.),Risk Planning Response Development Tools,Transferring the risk.,Examples.,Sharing the risk.,2023/11/18,Edward Tong,Jinan University,26,.,A Quote.,He that will not sail till all dangers are over must neverput to sea.,Thomas Fuller,1608-1661Chaplain in extraordinary to

15、Charles II,727,Risk Management Process,RiskUncertain or chance events that planning can not overcome or control.Risk ManagementA proactive attempt to recognize and manage internal events and external threats that affect the likelihood of a projects success.What can go wrong(risk event).How to minimi

16、ze the risk events impact(consequences).What can be done before an event occurs(anticipation).What to do when an event occurs(contingency plans).,728,The Risk Event Graph,FIGURE 7.1,729,Risk Managements Benefits,A proactive rather than reactive approach.Reduces surprises and negative consequences.Pr

17、epares the project manager to take advantage of appropriate risks.Provides better control over the future.Improves chances of reaching project performance objectives within budget and on time.,730,The Risk Management Process,FIGURE 7.2,731,Managing Risk,Step 1:Risk IdentificationGenerate a list of p

18、ossible risks through brainstorming,problem identification and risk profiling.Macro risks first,then specific eventsStep 2:Risk AssessmentScenario analysis for event probability and impactRisk assessment matrixFailure Mode and Effects Analysis(FMEA)Probability analysis Decision trees,NPV,and PERTSem

19、iquantitative scenario analysis,732,The Risk Breakdown Structure(RBS),FIGURE 7.3,733,Partial Risk Profile for Product Development Project,FIGURE 7.4,734,Defined Conditions for Impact Scales of a Risk on Major Project Objectives(Examples for negative impacts only),FIGURE 7.5,735,Risk Assessment Form,

20、FIGURE 7.6,Failure Mode and Effects Analysis(FMEA)Impact Probability Detection=Risk Value,736,Risk Severity Matrix,FIGURE 7.7,Failure Mode and Effects Analysis(FMEA)Impact Probability Detection=Risk Value,737,Managing Risk(contd),Step 3:Risk Response DevelopmentMitigating RiskReducing the likelihood

21、 an adverse event will occur.Reducing impact of adverse event.Avoiding RiskChanging the project plan to eliminate the risk or condition.Transferring RiskPaying a premium to pass the risk to another party.Requiring Build-Own-Operate-Transfer(BOOT)provisions.Retaining RiskMaking a conscious decision t

22、o accept the risk.,738,Contingency Planning,Contingency PlanAn alternative plan that will be used if a possible foreseen risk event actually occurs.A plan of actions that will reduce or mitigate the negative impact(consequences)of a risk event.Risks of Not Having a Contingency PlanHaving no plan may

23、 slow managerial response.Decisions made under pressure can be potentially dangerous and costly.,739,Risk and Contingency Planning,Technical RisksBackup strategies if chosen technology fails.Assessing whether technical uncertainties can be resolved.Schedule RisksUse of slack increases the risk of a

24、late project finish.Imposed duration dates(absolute project finish date)Compression of project schedules due to a shortened project duration date.,740,Risk Response Matrix,FIGURE 7.8,741,Risk and Contingency Planning(contd),Costs RisksTime/cost dependency links:costs increase when problems take long

25、er to solve than expected.Deciding to use the schedule to solve cash flow problems should be avoided.Price protection risks(a rise in input costs)increase if the duration of a project is increased.Funding RisksChanges in the supply of funds for the project can dramatically affect the likelihood of i

26、mplementation or successful completion of a project.,742,Opportunity Management Tactics,ExploitSeeking to eliminate the uncertainty associated with an opportunity to ensure that it definitely happens.ShareAllocating some or all of the ownership of an opportunity to another party who is best able to

27、capture the opportunity for the benefit of the project.EnhanceTaking action to increase the probability and/or the positive impact of an opportunity.AcceptBeing willing to take advantage of an opportunity if it occurs,but not taking action to pursue it.,743,Contingency Funding and Time Buffers,Conti

28、ngency FundsFunds to cover project risksidentified and unknown.Size of funds reflects overall risk of a projectBudget reservesAre linked to the identified risks of specific work packages.Management reservesAre large funds to be used to cover major unforeseen risks(e.g.,change in project scope)of the

29、 total project.Time BuffersAmounts of time used to compensate for unplanned delays in the project schedule.Severe risk,merge,noncritical,and scarce resource activities,744,Contingency Fund Estimate($000s),TABLE 7.1,745,Managing Risk(contd),Step 4:Risk Response ControlRisk controlExecution of the ris

30、k response strategyMonitoring of triggering eventsInitiating contingency plansWatching for new risksEstablishing a Change Management SystemMonitoring,tracking,and reporting riskFostering an open organization environmentRepeating risk identification/assessment exercisesAssigning and documenting respo

31、nsibility for managing risk,746,Change Management Control,Sources of ChangeProject scope changesImplementation of contingency plansImprovement changes,747,Change Control System Process,Identify proposed changes.List expected effects of proposed changes on schedule and budget.Review,evaluate,and appr

32、ove or disapprove of changes formally.Negotiate and resolve conflicts of change,condition,and cost.Communicate changes to parties affected.Assign responsibility for implementing change.Adjust master schedule and budget.Track all changes that are to be implemented,748,The Change Control Process,FIGUR

33、E 7.9,749,Benefits of a Change Control System,Inconsequential changes are discouraged by the formal process.Costs of changes are maintained in a log.Integrity of the WBS and performance measures is maintained.Allocation and use of budget and management reserve funds are tracked.Responsibility for im

34、plementation is clarified.Effect of changes is visible to all parties involved.Implementation of change is monitored.Scope changes will be quickly reflected in baseline and performance measures.,750,Sample Change Request Form,FIGURE 7.10,751,Change Request Log,FIGURE 7.11,752,Key Terms,Avoiding risk

35、Budget reserveChange management systemContingency planManagement reserveMitigating riskOpportunityRisk,Risk breakdown structure(RBS)Risk registerRisk profileRisk severity matrixScenario analysisSharing riskTime bufferTransferring risk,Appendix 7.1,PERT and PERT Simulation,754,PERTProgram Evaluation

36、Review Technique,Assumes each activity duration has a range that statistically follows a beta distribution.Uses three time estimates for each activity:optimistic,pessimistic,and a weighted average to represent activity durations.Knowing the weighted average and variances for each activity allows the

37、 project planner to compute the probability of meeting different project durations.,755,Activity and Project Frequency Distributions,FIGURE A7.1,756,Activity Time Calculations,757,Activity Time Calculations(contd),758,Activity Times and Variances,TABLE A7.1,759,Probability of Completing the Project,

38、760,Hypothetical Network,FIGURE A7.2,761,Hypothetical Network(contd),FIGURE A7.2(contd),762,Possible Project Duration,FIGURE A7.3,763,Z Values and Probabilities,TABLE A7.2,2023/11/18,Edward Tong2008 copy reserved Jinan University,64,1,An uncertain event or condition that,if it occurs,has a positive

39、or negative effect on a project objectives is termed.cA.Random chanceB.A disasterC.RiskD.HazardE.Bad luck,2023/11/18,Edward Tong2008 copy reserved Jinan University,65,2,The chances of a risk event occurring as a project proceeds through its life cycle tends toeA.Slowly riseB.Drop sharply and then le

40、vel outC.Rise sharply and then level outD.Remain about the sameE.Slowly drop,2023/11/18,Edward Tong2008 copy reserved Jinan University,66,3,The cost impact of a risk event occurring as a project proceeds through its life cycle tends toaA.Slowly riseB.Drop sharply and then level outC.Rise sharply and

41、 then level outD.Remain about the sameE.Slowly drop,2023/11/18,Edward Tong2008 copy reserved Jinan University,67,4,The attempt to recognize and manage potential and unforeseen trouble spots that may occur when a project is implemented is known asbA.Risk forecastingB.Risk managementC.Contingency plan

42、ningD.Scenario analysisE.Disaster protection,5,2023/11/18,Edward Tong2008 copy reserved Jinan University,68,Which of the following is not one of the steps in the risk management process?dA.Risk response developmentB.Risk assessmentC.Risk identificationD.Risk trackingE.Risk response control,6,2023/11

43、/18,Edward Tong2008 copy reserved Jinan University,69,The initial step in the risk management process is to cA.Determine the level of acceptable riskB.Assess the risk potentialC.Identify the risksD.Set aside budget funds for managing the risksE.Appoint a risk manager,7,2023/11/18,Edward Tong2008 cop

44、y reserved Jinan University,70,One common mistake made early in the risk identification process is todA.Not all possibilities are consideredB.Participants are over-optimisticC.Participants are over-pessimisticD.Focus on objectives and not on the events that could produce consequences.E.Too much atte

45、ntion is given to past events,8,2023/11/18,Edward Tong2008 copy reserved Jinan University,71,In the beginning the focus of risk management should be on risks thataA.Impact the whole projectB.Impact the critical pathC.Are knownD.Have the greatest cost impactE.Have the greatest schedule impact,9,2023/

46、11/18,Edward Tong2008 copy reserved Jinan University,72,The 1999 NASA Mars Climate Orbiter is an example ofdA.Disaster avoidance through proactive risk managementB.Murphys LawC.Proper use of critical thinkingD.Mismanaged risk controlE.Using historical records to assess risk,10,2023/11/18,Edward Tong

47、2008 copy reserved Jinan University,73,Which of the following would not be considered a threat?bA.InflationB.Meeting the project scheduleC.International disruptionsD.Economic conditionsE.Competition,11,2023/11/18,Edward Tong2008 copy reserved Jinan University,74,A list of questions that address trad

48、itional areas of uncertainty on a project is termed a riskaA.Risk profileB.QuestionnaireC.ResearchD.QueryE.Checklist,12,2023/11/18,Edward Tong2008 copy reserved Jinan University,75,Which of the following is typically included in risk profiles?dA.Management aspectsB.Market aspectsC.Technical aspectsD

49、.Both A and C are includedE.A,B,and C are all included,13,2023/11/18,Edward Tong2008 copy reserved Jinan University,76,All of the following are included in the risk identification process exceptcA.CustomersB.SubcontractorsC.CompetitorsD.VendorsE.None of these are included,14,2023/11/18,Edward Tong20

50、08 copy reserved Jinan University,77,One of the keys to success in risk identification isaA.Critical thinkingB.OptimismC.PessimismD.A can do attitudeE.All of these are correct,15,2023/11/18,Edward Tong2008 copy reserved Jinan University,78,The easiest and most commonly used technique for analyzing r