新编大学英语第四册Unit6Risk课件Part.ppt
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1、Part Two,Reading Centered Activities,1.In-Class Reading,2.After-Class Reading,Part Two:In-Class Reading Pre-Reading,Pre-Reading,1.In a normal day,what are the three riskiest things you do?,The three riskiest things I do in a normal day are to ride my bicycle in heavy traffic,run down stairs and do s
2、cientific experiments.,In my opinion,they are crossing the road in heavy traffic,drunken driving,and diving.,2.What should we do to manage risk in ordinary life?,One way to manage risk in ordinary life is through rational planning.By considering alternatives and balancing the greatest or most likely
3、 risks against the greatest or most likely rewards,we can often make better decisions and give greater consideration to long-term outcomes.By always having a contingency plan in case our main plan fails,we can usually avoid catastrophes.But planning takes effort,and we must balance this effort again
4、st the pleasure of doing things spontaneously because they are not very important or not very risky,and plan other things carefully because they are very important or very risky.,Part Two:In-Class Reading Pre-Reading,Part Two:In-Class Reading Global Reading,Global Reading,Organization Analysis,Part
5、Two:In-Class Reading Global Reading,Organization Analysis,Risks are always a matter of probability rather than certainty.,Part I,(Para.1-3),Part II,(Para.4-7),Part III,(Para.8),Nothing we do is completely safe.The point is to decide the risk level and then act accordingly.,Managing risks with common
6、 sense and information about risk level.,Part Two:In-Class Reading Global Reading,The author supports the main idea by comparing hypochondria with anxiety about the risks of life.,Part I,(Para.1-3),In both cases,the fear or anxiety feeds on partial information.,The hypochondriac can turn to a physic
7、ian to get a definitive clarification of the situation.,Risks are a matter of probability rather than certainty.,Part II(Para.4-7),1.We should inform ourselves about the _ before making any decision.(Para.4),Example1:We need to know the relative safety of _ and _ before our purchase.(Para.5),relevan
8、t risks,large cars,small cars,2.Problem:How do we measure the _ of a risk?(Para.6),Example2:Which activity is riskier,_ or _?(Para.6),level,riding in a car,mining,3.Solution:Risk levels can be expressed in _ or _.(Para.6-7),_ is four times riskier than _.(Para.7),ratios,fractions,Mining,Riding in a
9、car,Part Two:In-Class Reading Global Reading,Part III(Para.8),Risk can never be totally eliminated from any situation.It can only be managed in a sensible way.,Part Two:In-Class Reading Global Reading,Part Two:In-Class Reading Detailed Reading,Detailed Reading,Passage Reading,Understanding Sentences
10、,Word Study,Part Two:In-Class Reading Detailed Reading,1 At some time or other,all of us have played the part of a hypochondriac,imagining that we have some terrible disease on the strength of very minor symptoms.Some people just have to hear about a new disease and they begin checking themselves to
11、 see if they may be suffering from it.2 But fear of disease is not our only fear,and neither is risk of disease the only risk we run.Modern life is full of all manner of threatsto our lives,our peace of mind,our families,and our future.3 And from these threats come questions that we must pose to our
12、selves:Is the food I buy safe?Are toys for my children likely to hurt them?Should my family avoid smoked meats?Am I likely to be robbed on vacations?Our uncertainties multiply indefinitely.,Risks and You,Passage Reading,Part Two:In-Class Reading Detailed Reading,Anxiety about the risks of life is a
13、bit like hypochondria;in both,the fear or anxiety feeds on partial information.But one sharp difference exists between the two.The hypochondriac can usually turn to a physician to get a definitive clarification of the situationeither you have the suspected disease or you dont.4 It is much more diffi
14、cult when anxiety about other forms of risk is concerned,because with many risks,the situation is not as simple.Risks are almost always a matter of probability rather than certainty.You may ask,“Should I wear a seat belt?”If youre going to have a head-on collision,of course.5 But what if you get hit
15、 from the side and end up trapped inside the vehicle,unable to escape because of a damaged seat belt mechanism?,Part Two:In-Class Reading Detailed Reading,So does this mean that you should spend the extra money for an air bag?Again,in head-on collisions,it may well save your life.But what if the bag
16、 accidentally inflates while you are driving down the highway,thus causing an accident that would never have occurred otherwise?All of this is another way of saying that nothing we do is completely safe.6 There are risks,often potentially serious ones,associated with every hobby we have,every job we
17、 take,every food we eatin other words,with every action.But the fact that there are risks associated with everything we are going to do does not,or should not,reduce us to trembling neurotics.Some actions are riskier than others.The point is to inform ourselves about the relevant risks and then act
18、accordingly.,Part Two:In-Class Reading Detailed Reading,For example,larger cars are generally safer than small ones in collisions.But how much safer?7 The answer is that you are roughly twice as likely to die in a serious crash in a small car than in a large one.Yet larger cars generally cost more t
19、han small ones(and also use more gas,thus increasing the environmental risks!),so how do we decide when the reduced risks are worth the added costs?The ultimate risk avoider might,for instance,buy a tank or an armored car,thus minimizing the risk of death or injury in a collision.But is the added co
20、st and inconvenience worth the difference in price,even supposing you could afford it?We cannot begin to answer such questions until we have a feel for the level of risks in question.So how do we measure the level of a risk?Some people seem to think that the answer is a simple number.We know,for ins
21、tance,that about 25,000 people per year die in automobile accidents.,Part Two:In-Class Reading Detailed Reading,By contrast,only about 300 die per year in mine accidents and disasters.Does that mean that riding in a car is much riskier than mining?Not necessarily.The fact is that some 200 million Am
22、ericans regularly ride in automobiles in the United States every year;perhaps 700,000 are involved in mining.The relevant figure that we need to assess a risk is a ratio or fraction.The numerator of the fraction tells us how many people were killed or harmed as the result of a particular activity ov
23、er a certain period of time;the denominator tells us how many people were involved in that activity during that time.All risk levels are thus ratios or fractions,with values between 0(no risk)and 1(totally risky).,Part Two:In-Class Reading Detailed Reading,By reducing all risks to ratios or fraction
24、s of this sort,we can begin to compare different sorts of riskslike mining versus riding in a car.The larger this ratio,that is,the closer it is to 1,the riskier the activity in question.8 In the case just discussed,we would find the relative safety of car travel and coal mining by dividing the numb
25、ers of lives lost in each by the number of people participating in each.Here,it is clear that the riskiness of traveling by car is about 1 death per 10,000 passengers;with mining,the risk level is about 4 deaths per 10,000 miners.So although far more people are killed in car accidents than in mining
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