国家风险评估及.ppt

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1、第十一讲 国家风险评估及管理,Chapter ObjectivesTo identify the common factors used by MNCs to measure a countrys political risk and financial risk;To explain the techniques used to measure country risk;andTo explain how MNCs use the assessment of country risk when making financial decisions.,Why Country Risk Anal

2、ysis Is Important,.Definition of Political riskis the risk that the business environment in a host country will change unexpectedly or is the potentially adverse impact of a countrys environment on an MNCs cash flows(国家风险指东道国的商业环境发生非预期的变化，从而对跨国公司的价值产生影响。）2.Some Adverse Impacts:a.A terrorist attackb.

3、A major labor strike in an industryc.A political crisis due to a scandal within a countryd.Concern about a countrys banking system that may cause a major outflow of fundse.The imposition of trade restrictions on imports,.Country risk analysis can be used:to monitor countries where the MNC is current

4、ly doing business;as a screening device to avoid conducting business in countries with excessive risk;andto revise its investment or financing decisions in light of recent events.,Why Country Risk Analysis Is Important,the companies that assess country risk.,Political risk（政治风险）is the risk that a so

5、vereign host government will unexpectedly change the rules of the game under which businesses operatePolitical risks arise because of unexpected changes in the political environment within a host country or in the relationship of a host country to another country.Financial risk（财务风险）refers more gene

6、rally to unexpected events in a countrys financial,economic,or business lifeFinancial risk is determined by a host of financial and economic factors,some of which are related to local political risk.,Political Risk Factors,A.Attitude of consumers in the host countrySome consumers are very loyal to l

7、ocally manufactured products.B.Actions of host governmentThe host government may impose special requirements or taxes,restrict fund transfers,and subsidize local firms.MNCs can also be hurt by a lack of restrictions,such as failure to enforce copyright laws.,Political Risk Factors,C.Blockage of Fund

8、 TransfersFunds that are blocked may not be optimally used.If fund transfers are blocked,subsidiaries will have to undertake projects that may not be optimal for the MNC.D.Currency InconvertibilityThe MNC parent may need to exchange earnings for goods if the foreign currency cannot be changed into o

9、ther currencies,E.WarInternal and external battles,or even the threat of war,can have devastating effects.The 2003 War in IraqF.Bureaucracy(官僚）Bureaucracy can complicate businesses.G.Corruption（腐败）Corruption can increase the cost of conducting business or reduce revenue.,Political Risk Factors,Corru

10、ption Perceptions Index,The index,which is published by Transparency International,reflects the degree to which corruption is perceived to exist among public officials and politicians.In 2001,91 countries are ranked on a clean score of 10.,Rank Country Score1Finland9.93New Zealand9.44Singapore9.27Ca

11、nada8.913U.K.8.314Hong Kong7.916Israel7.616U.S.A.7.618Chile7.520Germany7.421Japan7.1,Rank Country Score23France6.726Botswana6.027Taiwan5.938South Africa 4.842South Korea4.246Brazil4.051Mexico3.757Argentina3.557China3.579Russia2.388Indonesia1.9,Corruption Index Ratings for Selected Countries,Maximum

12、rating=10.High ratings indicate low corruption.,Find out more about Transparency International and the Corruption Perceptions Index by visiting.,Online Application,Financial Risk Factors,A.Current and Potential State of the Countrys EconomyA recession can severely reduce demand.Financial distress ca

13、n also cause the government to restrict MNC operations.B.Indicators of Economic GrowthA countrys economic growth is dependent on several financial factors-interest rates,exchange rates,inflation,etc.,Examples of political risks,Expropriation risk（征用风险）Assets have been expropriated after revolutions

14、in Iran and Chile.Disruptions in operations（经营中断风险）-changes in laws or regulations.much more common than expropriation and can happen even in peacetime.Protectionism（贸易保护主义风险）-e.g.,“buy American.”Protectionism can affect local consumption.Blocked funds（资金转移风险）-funds that cannot be immediately remitt

15、ed to the parent company.Loss of intellectual property rights（知识产权风险）-particularly problematic in developing and transitional economies such as China and the former states of the Soviet Union.,Examples of financial risks,Currency riskInterest rate riskInflation riskUnexpected changes in the current

16、account balanceUnexpected changes in the balance of tradePolitical Risk Services International Country Risk Guide（国际国家风险指南）includes the following assessments in their financial risk index.Loan defaults or loan restructuringsPayment delays Cancellations of contracts by a host governmentLosses from ex

17、change controlsExpropriation of private investments,What are the political and financial outlook for various countries?,Online Application,Consult the Country Commercial Guides prepared by embassy staff at http:/www.usatrade.gov/website/ccg.nsf/ccghomepage?openform.,Refer to the CIAs World Factbook

18、at http:/www.odci.gov/.,Visit http:/ifc/,Types of Country Risk Assessment,.Macroassessment of Country RiskMacro risksaffect all firms in a host country(指在东道国整个国家范围内发生的影响到所有企业的风险，如东道国的财政和货币政策、银行系统、税率、资本管制、汇率等的突然变化。）a.Characteristics of the Country:1.)Political factors2.)Financial factorsb.Uncertainty

19、 Surrounding a Macroassessment2.Microassessment of Country RiskMicro risksspecific to an industry,firm or project in a country（指仅对某一特定行业或企业产生影响的风险，如移民政策的突然改变对大量使用外来劳动力的企业造成的影响。）The overall assessment thus consists of macropolitical risk,macrofinancial risk,micropolitical risk,and microfinancial risk

20、.,Assessments of country risks,Bank of AmericaBusiness Environment Risk IntelligenceControl Risks Information ServicesDun and Bradstreet Economist Intelligence UnitEuromoney Institutional Investor Moodys Investor Services Org for Econ Co-operation and DevelopmentPolitical Risk Services Standard and

21、Poors,Country risks,AfricaAsiaEuropeMid EastAmericasA1AustraliaSwitzerlandCanadaUKA2BotswanaHK JapanGermanyKuwaitUSAS.KoreaItalyUAEA3MauritiusChinaCyprusIsraelChileNamibiaThailandCzech RepTrinidadA4Egypt IndiaLatviaSaudi MexicoS.AfricaPhilippinesPoland ArabiaPanamaBAlgeriaBangladeshSlovakiaEgyptBraz

22、il PeruUgandaSri LankaRussiaJordanVenezuelaCCongoIndonesiaAzerbaijanIran SyriaHaitiKenya VietnamRomaniaTurkeyJamaicaDNigeriaAfghanistanAlbaniaIraqArgentinaSudanN.KoreaUkraineCubaZimbabwePakistanYugoslaviaEcuador,Techniques of Assessing Country Risk,A checklist approach（清单法）involves rating and weight

23、ing all the identified factors,and then consolidating the rates and weights to produce an overall assessment.The Delphi technique（德尔菲法）involves collecting various independent opinions and then averaging and measuring the dispersion of those opinions.,Techniques of Assessing Country Risk,Quantitative

24、 analysis（定量分析法）techniques like regression analysis can be applied to historical data to assess the sensitivity of a business to various risk factors.Inspection visits（参观视察法）involve traveling to a country and meeting with government officials,firm executives,and/or consumers to clarify uncertainties

25、.,Often,firms use a variety of techniques for making country risk assessments.For example,they may use the checklist approach to develop an overall country risk rating,and some of the other techniques to assign ratings to the factors.例如，国际国家风险指南（ICRG），设置了一个加权平均指数来反映国家风险，该指数由50%的政治风险指标、25%的金融风险指标和25%

26、的经济风险指标构成。,Techniques of Assessing Country Risk,Measuring Country Risk,The checklist approach involves:Assigning values and weights to political and financial risk factors,Multiplying the factor values with their weights,and summing up to give the political and financial risk ratings,Assigning weigh

27、ts to the risk ratings,andMultiplying the ratings with their weights,and summing up to give the country risk rating.,Cougar Co.:Determining the Overall Country Risk Rating,Cougar Co.:Derivation of the Overall Country Risk Rating,注意：The procedures for quantifying country risk will vary with the asses

28、sor,the country being assessed,as well as the type of operations being planned.Firms use country risk ratings when screening potential projects,and when monitoring existing projects.,Measuring Country Risk,Adjustment of the Discount RateThe higher the perceived risk,the higher the discount rate that

29、 should be applied to the projects cash flows.Adjustment of the Estimated Cash FlowsBy estimating how the cash flows could be affected by each form of risk,the MNC can determine the probability distribution of the net present value of the project.,Incorporating Country Risk in Capital Budgeting,Impa

30、ct of Country Risk on an MNCs Value,Strategies for managing country risk,1.Negotiate the environment with the host country prior to investmentThe investment environmentThe financial environment2.Structure foreign operations to minimize country risk while maximizing return3.Obtain political risk issu

31、rance,Strategies for managing country risk,Negotiate the environment with the host country prior to investment（与环境协调配合）The Investment Environment can be agreed to in an Investment agreement that specifies the rights and obligations of the parties:Taxes(e.g.,duties,tariffs,tax holidays)Labor issues(e

32、.g.,use of expatriate managers)Concessions(e.g.,privileged access to restricted markets)Obligations(e.g.,tie-in projects)Restrictions(e.g.,on imports or exports to other markets)Provisions for planned investment divestiturePerformance assurances on the part of the host governmentRemedies against del

33、ay or expropriationProvisions and venues for international arbitration of disputes,Strategies for managing country risk,Negotiate the environment with the host country prior to investmentThe Financial Environment:Cash flow remittance(management fees,royalties,loan repayments,dividends,transfer prici

34、ng)Access to capital markets in the host country,including any ownership restrictionsPossibility of subsidized financing from the host governmentCorporate governance environmentRemedies in case of corporate nonperformance or government default,including provisions and venues for the international ar

35、bitration of disputes,Structure foreign operations to minimize risk while maximizing returnLimit the scope of technology transfer to foreign affiliates to include only non-essential parts of the production processLimit dependence on any single partnerEnlist local partnersUse more stringent investmen

36、t criteriaPlan for disaster recovery,Strategies for managing country risk,Reducing Exposureto Host Government Takeovers,The benefits of DFI can be offset by country risk,the most severe of which is a host government takeover.To reduce the chance of a takeover by the host government,firms often use t

37、he following strategies:Use a Short-Term HorizonThis technique concentrates on recovering cash flow quickly.,Reducing Exposureto Host Government Takeovers,Rely on Unique Supplies or TechnologyIn this way,the host government will not be able to take over and operate the subsidiary successfully.Hire L

38、ocal Labor聘请本地劳工The local employees can apply pressure on their government.,Borrow Local FundsThe local banks can apply pressure on their government.Purchase InsuranceInvestment guarantee programs offered by the home country母国,host country,or an international agency insure to some extent various for

39、ms of country risk.,Reducing Exposureto Host Government Takeovers,Political risk insurance,Insurable political risks includeExpropriation（征用）due to warrevolutioninsurrection暴动civil disturbance内乱terrorismRepatriation restrictions遣返限制,Political risk insurers,Government export credit agenciesU.S.Overse

40、as Private Investment CorporationU.K.Export Credits Guarantee DepartmentInternationalWorld Bank Multilateral Investment Guarantee AgencyPrivateLloyds of London American International Group(AIG),Political risk insurers政治风险保险,A history of political risk insurancePrior to the 1990s,government agencies

41、such as OPIC were the primary underwriters.Private insurers were inactive.Political risk cover typically was available only up to about$10 million and for terms of only about three years.The World Banks MIGA was created in 1990 to promote intl trade.During the 1990s,private insurers infused liquidit

42、y with insurable amounts to more than$100 million and terms of up to ten years.Much of this growth in the private market has been driven by the increase in project finance.There is also an emerging reinsurance market that allows insurers to lay off their political risks onto other insurers or privat

43、e investors.The costs of political risk insuranceAnnual premiums through Lloyds of London or the American International Group(AIG)can be as high as 10%of the amount of the investment in high-risk countries.The premiums of private insurers vary widely,so corporations should shop around for the best terms.,Use project financeProject finance deals（项目融资交易）are heavily financed with credit,thus limiting the MNCs exposure.The loans are secured（有抵押）by the projects future revenues and are“nonrecourse.”（无追索权）A bank may guarantee the payments to the MNC.,Reducing Exposureto Host Government Takeovers,