统计课程小结.ppt

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1、,LET DATA TELL YOU,Statistics,Data analysis,And decision,G5 group,For QTM Presentation,G5 Industry Co.,Ltd.,HERE IS A COMPANY,Its business scope is,All kinds of metal stampings,22.1%,53.6%,11.4%,12.2%,The main products,Notebook,Car components,Smart phone,Sever,THERE IS A CONTRACT,NOW:,BUT,IT REQUIRE

2、 THE PRICE,TO REDUCE FOR 15%.,DO YOU SIGN,THE CONTRACT,?,THEN,YOU NEED THE DATA,TO COMPILE STATISTICS,TO ANALYSE,TO MAKE THE DECISION,Part I:,TO COMPILE STATISTICS,We collect the forty-two days data from the factory,In this situation,it seems that the project will be loss if you accept the contract.

3、,Summary measures for selected variables,DPPM:The number of defects in million of products.,From the data,we can get the following information,So,we should use these information to further analyze the issue.,Part II:,DATA ANALYSIS,According to the data,the diagram can be draw,From the diagram we can

4、 find the gross profit ratio is inverse relative with the defects ratio.,Then,We will through the regression analysis to find the linear equation,From the F-test and T-test,we get the p-value Significant Level 0.05 and the R-square=0.9435,all these indicate the DPPM and the profit is significant cor

5、relation.From the Scatter diagram we can find the DPPM and the profit is linear correlation.Now,we can get the linear equation.Profit=1.9951-0.0001*DPPMSo,DPPM should down to 19951 and below.,The DPPM is normal distribution.The biggest value of frequency appear near the mean.,NOW,WE WILL ANALYSE THE

6、 DATA OF DPPM,Hypothesis Testing,The DPPM data as independent samples were analyzed by T test.,Assumption:H0 19951,For 19951 is the break-even point,PSignificant Level 5%We reject H0 and accept Ha,so for the population DMMP will more than 19951.,If accept the contract we must improve the project.,SO

7、LUTION 1,SOLUTION 3,SOLUTION 2,IMPROVEMENT,There are three solutions to be choose for the improvement,SOLUTION 1,SOLUTION 3,SOLUTION 2,We test three solutions respectively,and obtain the relevant data,Through ANOVA,we get the p-value Significant level 0.05,so the H0 will be rejected,then three solut

8、ion is significant difference.And the DMMP sample means of every solution are all under the break-even point 19951.All solution is feasible.,How to choose the solution,we need decisions,Part III:,MAKE THE DECISION,It is estimated by expert,We got the expected returns of each solution,The expected re

9、turns of each solution,WE MAKE THE DECISION TREE,THE optimal decision is,Sign the contract and choose the solution 2 to make improvement.,After improvement,we collected about thirty days data to check.,Use the thirty days data,we draw the P-control chart,From the P-chart we know the productive proce

10、ss is in the control.,Use the data after improvement,we can estimate the DPPM in new situation.,According the sample data,we get the lower and upper limit in 95%confidence level.Then use the return function,Profit=1.9951-0.0001*DPPM,We estimate the profit per unit will be in the interval 1.66 and 1.58.,Now,we can sign the contract and it will be profit.,