2022净零热储能长时储能加速能源系统脱碳英文版.docx

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1、McKinsey& CompanyLDESLONG DURATION ENERGY STORAGE COUNCILNet-zeroheat1.ongDurationEnergyStoragetoaccelerateenergysystemdecarbonizationPublishedinNovember2022bytheLDESCouncil.Copiesofthisdocumentareavailableuponrequestorcanbedownloadedfromourwebsite:.ThisreportwasauthoredbytheLDESCouncilincollaborati

2、onwithMcKinsey&Companyasknowledgepartner.Thisworkisindependent,reflectstheviewsoftheauthors,andhasnotbeencommissionedbyanybusiness,government,orotherinstitution.Theauthorsofthereportconfirmthat:1 .Therearenorecommendationsand/oranymeasuresand/ortrajectorieswithinthereportthatcouldbeinterpretedasstan

3、dardsorasanyotherformof(suggested)coordinationbetweentheparticipantsofthestudyreferredtowithinthereportthatwouldinfringeEUcompetitionlaw;and2 Itisnottheirintentionthatanysuchformofcoordinationwillbeadopted.Whilethecontentsofthereportanditsabstractimplicationsfortheindustrygenerallycanbediscussedonce

4、theyhavebeenprepared,individualstrategiesremainproprietary,confidential,andtheresponsibilityofeachparticipant.Participantsareremindedthat,aspartoftheinvariablepracticeoftheLDESCouncilandtheEUcompetitionlawobligationstowhichmembershipactivitiesaresubject,suchstrategicandconfidentialinformationmustnot

5、besharedorcoordinated-includingaspartofthisreport.ContentsPreface4Executivesummary8Acronyms131. TheroleofLDESinnet-zeroenergy142. TESasanenablertodecarbonizingheat183. LDEStechnologiescostandcompetitiveness244. TESbusinesscases345. Anintegratedenergysystemperspective486. UnlockingtheTESopportunity54

6、Conclusion57Appendix A: Methodologyandassumptions58Appendix B: StateoftheTESindustry67Acknowledgements69PrefaceWemustcapturethenarrowwindowofopportunitytoachieveanet-zeroenergysystem.Thedecarbonizationoftheenergysectorneedstoacceleratetobecomealignedwithanet-zeropathwaythatlimitsglobalwarmingtobelow

7、1.5oC.However,achievingnet-zeroemissionsby2050requiresmassivedevelopmentofrenewables,newandreinforcedinfrastructure,andtheadoptionofnewcleantechnologies.Manychallengescompoundinthistransition,assupplychainsneedtobescaledup,end-useequipmentneedstobeadapted,andinfrastructureneedstobedeployedandreinfor

8、ced(forexample,transmissionanddistributionelectricitygridexpansionscantakeupto15yearstorealize).Immediateactionisrequiredtomeetemission-reductiontargets,limittheimpactofclimatechange,andmaximizetheopportunitiesahead.Asoutlinedinthe2021LDESNet-zeropowerreport,1long-durationenergystorage(LDES)offersal

9、ow-costflexibilitysolutiontoenableenergysystemdecarbonization.LDES, Whenever LDES is mentioned as a technology group, it is defined as a technology storing energy for ten or more hours, as per ARPA-Esdefinition. When LDES is mentioned in analysis or modeling, the actual duration length is always spe

10、cified, in line with NRELs recommendation.canbedeployedtostoreenergyforprolongedperiodsandcanbescaledupeconomicallytosustainenergyprovisionformultiplehours(tenormore),days(multidaystorage),months,andseasons.LDEScanstoreenergyinvariousforms,includingmechanical,thermal,electrochemical,orchemicalandcan

11、contributesignificantlytothecost-efficientdecarbonizationoftheenergysystem.Furthermore,ithelpsaddressmajorenergytransitionchallengessuchassolarandwindenergysupplyvariability,gridinfrastructurebottlenecks,oremissionsfromheatgeneration.ThisreportpresentsthelatestviewontheroleofLDESinhelpingachieveNet-

12、zeropowerandheatby2050, It is assumed that the power sector achieves net-zero emissions by 2040, and other sectors by 2050.focusingonthepotentialroleofthermalenergystorage(TES)inrealizingnet-zeroheat.ItbuildsonpriorLDESCouncilresearchandanalysisandpresentsupdatedcostperspectivesbasedondatafromLDESCo

13、uncilmembers.Asafollow-uptopreviousLDESCouncilpublications,thisreportfocusesontheheatsector,apivotalcomponentinachievingglobaldecarbonizationandclimatetargets.Accordingly,italsofocusesonaparticularsetofLDEStechnologies,TES,whichcanstoreheat,decarbonizeheatapplications,andintegraterenewablesinthissec

14、torandthebroaderenergysystem.Thisreportalsohighlightshowanintegratedsystemapproachisimperativetocost-efficientlydecarbonizingenergysystems. The definition of energy system used in this report includes all components related to the production, nversion, and use of electrical energy, heat, and hydroge

15、n. The electrification of the transport sector is included indirectly in the final electricity demand scenario from the McKinsey Global Energy Perspective.Electricity,heat,andhydrogenarebecomingincreasinglyinterconnected,drivenbythegrowinguptakeofrenewableenergyandaccesstotechnologiesthatintegrateth

16、em,suchasheatpumpsandLDES(Exhibit1).Thiscreatestheneedtolookattheintegratedecosystemratherthantheseparateenergysectorstojointlyinformcost-optimizedenergyinfrastructuredevelopments.Theanalysesinthisreporttakeinterdependenciesbetweenpower,heat,andhydrogenintoaccounttoassessthecost-optimizedmixofflexib

17、ilitysolutionsneededfortheheatandpowersectors.IthighlightstherelationshipbetweenpowerLDESandTEStoacceleratetheenergytransition,andtherolethatTEScanplayindecarbonizingheatapplications.Hydrogen-to-heatExhibit1Power,heat,andhydrogeninterconnectionsPowerPower-to-hydrogenHydrogen-to-powerAbouttheLDESCoun

18、cilTheLDESCouncilisaglobal,executive-ledorganizationthatstrivestoacceleratethedecarbonizationoftheenergysystematthelowestcosttosocietybydrivingtheinnovationanddeploymentofLDESanddecreasingemissions.TheLDESCouncilwaslaunchedattheConferenceofParties(COP)26andcurrentlycomprises64companies. Member count

19、 at the time of the release of this report in November 2022.Itprovidesfact-basedguidancetogovernmentsandindustry,drawingfromtheexperiencesofitsmembers,whichincludeleadingtechnologyproviders,industryandservicecustomers,capitalproviders,equipmentmanufacturers,andlow-carbonenergysystemintegratorsanddev

20、elopers.Alltechnologyproviders,industryandservicescustomers,capitalproviders,equipmentmanufacturers,andlow-carbonenergysystemintegratorsanddevelopersaremembersoftheLDESCouncil.TechnologyprovidersiIMo三CXElectrifIed二ThermalSolutionsezncmAGRLDIEnefgiSeItlAmbriIlENERGYVAULTFormenergyALIARyeDevelopment电A

21、ZELlOZ=Xenercsvdovie-f8Xyn，AucvHEATRIIXTWRMALSaItXBreezel-.=-.7.ORGYsLIHighview11Power,MINESTORAGEStiesdal(BBENMlLLEENEKOYHydrostorPeniel,StorworksU臼IULJtDaENLIGHTE11INVINITYI-Ie11eR0Ysystems三=*J三2THERMOWA11ceres9eosIIKRAFTK_lBLOCK/QTORCyECHOGENpowersystemsESSKXOXOj.redflowOSTORAGEIndustryandservice

22、scustomers!rW4Ut0dTotaiEner9sExecutivesummaryDecarbonizingtheglobalenergysystemrequiresanintegratedapproachtoinformoptimalenergyinfrastructuredevelopmentsinatimelymanner.Italsorequiressystemicchangesaswemovetowardenergysystemspredominantlysuppliedbyvariablerenewableenergy.Torealizea1.5scenarioby2050

23、,projectionsestimateafivefoldincreaseintotalrenewablessupplyandatwofoldincreaseintotalelectricitydemandbythatyear. Net zero by 2050, a roadmap for the global energy sector, IEA, 2021.Furthermore,thereareearlysignsthatpower,heat,andhydrogenarebecomingincreasinglyinterconnectedthroughsector-uplingtech

24、nologieslikeheatpumps,electrolyzers,orhydrogenboilers.This,inadditiontothegrowingshareofrenewablesandelectrification,furtherincreasestheenergysystemscomplexity.Therefore,anintegratedapproachcouldhelpensureacost-optimizedandtimelyenergytransition.1.DESoffersacleanflexibilitysolutiontosecurepowerandhe

25、atreliability.LDESencompassesarangeoftechnologiesthatcanstoreelectricalenergyinvariousformsforprolongedperiodsatacompetitivecostandatscale.Thesetechnologiescanthendischargeelectricalenergywhenneeded-overhours,days,orseasons-inordertofulfilllong-durationsystemflexibilityneedstoshifttheincreasingvaria

26、ble,renewableenergysupplytomatchdemand.Thisreportbuildsonthe2021LDESCouncilNet-zeropowerreportbyfocusingontheroleofLDESinrealizingnet-zeropowerandheatwhileexpandingontherolethermalenergystorage(TES)canplayindecarbonizingheatapplications.TESprovidesanLDESsolutiontoelectrifyingandfirmingheat.Decarboni

27、zingtheheatsectoriscrucialforrealizinganet-zeroenergysystemby2050,giventhatitrepresentsroughly45percentofallenergy-relatedemissionstoday. The baseline includes emissions from heating, industrial processes, transport, and other energy sector emissions. It excludes power generation emissions.TEScandec

28、arbonizeheatapplicationsbyelectrifyingandfirmingheatwithvariablerenewableenergysources.Inaddition,itcanoptimizeheatconsumptioninindustrialprocessesandfacilitatethereuseofwasteheatortheintegrationofcleanheatsources(forexample,fromthermalsolar).TEScanenablethecost-efficientelectrificationofmostheatapp

29、lications.TEScoversavarietyoftechnologiesthatcanaddressawiderangeofstoragedurations(fromintradaytoseasonal)andtemperatures(fromsubzeroto2,400oC).Accordingtothe2022LDESbenchmarkresults,TESenablescost-efficientelectrificationanddecarbonizationofthemostwidelyusedheatapplications,namelysteamandhotair.Th

30、ebenchmarkresultsalsoindicatethatfirmingheatisverycost-efficientwhenthefinaldemandisheat.SomeTEStechnologiesarealreadycommerciallyavailablewithvariouseasy-to-customizeuses.Todate,themostcommonlydeployedTEStechnologiesincludemedium-pressuresteam,withvariousapplications,includinginthechemicalsorfoodan

31、dbeverageindustries.Additionally,developingtechnologieswillexpandtheTESsolutionspacewithinnovativeconceptsandaddresstemperatureneedswellabove1,000oC.TESbusinesscasesdemonstrateprofitabilityataninternalrateofreturn(IRR)of16to28percent,subjecttolocalmarketconditions.Theseincludeoptimalphysicalconfigur

32、ations(accesstocaptiverenewables,captiveheat,orgridelectricity)andmarketdesigns(includinglowgridfeesandtheremunerationofflexibility).ThebusinesscaseassessmentscoverawiderangeofrealisticTESusecases,namely:medium-pressuresteaminachemicalsplant(upto28percentIRR),districtheatingsuppliedbyapeakerplant(up

33、to16percentIRR),high-pressuresteaminanaluminarefinery(upto16percentIRR),andco-generationinanoff-gridgreenhouse(upto22percentIRR).Allmarket-exposedbusinesscasesindicateasupportiveecosystemthatacknowledgesthevalueofflexibility,suchasancillaryservices,wouldlikelybecriticaltoensuringwidecommercialadopti

34、on.Thebusinesscasewithbehind-the-meterrenewablegenerationshowsthatTEScanalreadybecommerciallyfeasibleregardlessofexternalmarketconditions.1.DEStechnologiesareexpectedtobecomeincreasinglycost-competitiveasthemarketmatures.Theupdated2022powerLDEScostbenchmarksolidifiestheforecastthatLDEScostswilldecli

35、neinthefollowingyears,suggestinga25to50percentoverallcapitalexpenditure(capex)reductionofpowerLDEStechnologiesby2040.Inaddition,the2022TEScostbenchmarkindicatesthatTEScapexisalsoexpectedtodeclineby2040,withanestimateddropofbetween5and30percentforpowercapexand15and70percentforenergystoragecapex.Acase

36、studyontheportofRotterdamexemplifiestherelevanceofLDESfordecarbonizingenergyhubswhilecreatingsystemvalue.Thecasestudyrepresentsatypicalindustrialhubwithsignificantpowerandheatdemandon-site,whereacombinationofTESandpowerLDEScanplayaroleindecarbonizingthesystem.InanindustriallocationliketheportofRotte

37、rdam,theneedforindustrialheatingcanfundamentallychangetheconfigurationforanet-zeroenergysystem.TEScanfirmthevariableoffshorewindsupplyintoamorestablesupplyofcleanheatforindustrialheating,includinghigh-temperatureheating.TEScoulddoubletheglobalLDEScapacitypotentialinacost-optimizednet-zeroenergypathw

38、ayinlinewitha1.5oCscenario.Basedonintegratedsystemmodeling,TEScanexpandtheoverallinstalledcapacitypotentialofLDEStobetween2and8TWby2040(versus1to3TWwithoutTES),whichtranslatestoacumulativeinvestmentofUSD1.6trilliontoUSD2.5trillion.TESenablesthisadditionalLDESopportunitybyprovidingacost-efficientalte

39、rnativetodecarbonizingheatandhigh-tem-peratreheatingapplications.ThisisestimatedtoreducesystemcostsbyuptoUSD540billionperyearwhilecreatingbroadersystemvaluebyenablinganacceleratedrenewablesbuild-outandoptimizationofgridutilization.CriticalsupportelementscouldhelpdrivemoreTESadoption.Asupportiveecosy

40、stemthatrewardsflexibilityandpromotesatechnologicallylevelplayingfieldforflexibilitysolutionslikeLDESiscriticaltoacceleratingthescale-upofTES.Additionally,increasingawarenessandprovidingsupporttoderiskinitialinvestmentsispivotal.Businessleaders,policymakers,andinvestorshaveanimportantroletoplayinunl

41、ockingtheTESpotentialbyreducinglong-termuncertaintyandtherebyshapingthecost-optimizedpathwaytowardthenet-zeroenergysystemofthefuture.Net-zeroheat1.ongDurationEnergyStoragetoaccelerateenergysystemdecarbonizationThe transition to net zero requires an integrated energy system perspectiveRealizing a cos

42、t-optimized transition to net zero across all energy sectors requires significant deployment of renewables, increased interconnections between power, heat, and hydrogen, and supporting infrastructure. System flexibility will be critical to securing energy system reliabilityHeatdecarbonizationiscriti

43、calfornetzero,asitaccountsfor-45%ofenergy-relatedemissionsGlobal final energy consumption by sectorShare of global energy-related CO2e emissions1Machinery, appliances, lightingIndustryTransportationBuildings: heatingDistrict heating Buildings: cookingHeatingandcooling20%from industrial heat10%from b

44、uildings heatLongdurationenergystorageenablesacost-optimizedpathwaytowardnetzeroAcost-optimizednet-zeropathwaycouldby2040resultin.2-8 TWdeployed LDEScapacityUSD 1.7-3,6 trcumulative LDES capexinvestmentsOU.O-.uptoUSD540bnsystemsavingsperyearThermalenergystorage(TES).prisesawiderangeoftechnologies2,4

45、00oC0(Q)Storage duration use caseSome TES technologies arealready commercially availableStorage temperatureR&D Pilots Commercially availableTechnical maturityTESenableselectrificationofheatapplicationswithdifferenttemperatureanddurationneeds. is a cost-efficient 24/7 heat decarbonization solutionTec

46、hnologyLevelized cost of heat (steam) for selected technologies1 USD/MWhbatterybatteryTESmakesstoringheatmorecost-efficientthanstoringpowerforheatapplications.canpresentattractivebusinesscasessubjecttolocalconditions.IRRsforselectedusecasesUpsidecase28%16%16%22%Basecase6%0%ChemicalsOff-gridDistrictheatingAluminaplantgreenhousepeakerplantrefineryTESbehind-the-meterbusinesscasescanbepositiveastherearenogridconnectionfees.