McKinsey能源行业分析.ppt

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1、txho/11022 ho0402 color.ppt,ACCELERATING INNOVATION IN ENERGY,Energy is Key.Now,October 22,2001,This report is solely for the use of client personnel.No part of it may be circulated,quoted,or reproduced for distribution outside the client organization without prior written approval from McKinsey it

2、is not a complete record of the discussion.,育肚页嗅衬烫适死痈榨诚鸦嗓滤勾稻秆愿良块宫丰愿勿匪剃剁寄遏晤土留McKinsey-能源行业分析McKinsey-能源行业分析,txho/11022 ho0402 color.ppt,1,TODAYS DISCUSSION,Capital markets:ruthless driver of innovationCreative destruction in the Energy IndustryWhat can Houston do to lead innovation in Energy?,戴箕蓑哭家鼓镰

3、鸟璃隘蚌啸宰钩思勘避英波睫瞩性浚镰哗苹谨旱炊唱纱症McKinsey-能源行业分析McKinsey-能源行业分析,txho/11022 ho0402 color.ppt,2,LONG-TERM SURVIVAL IS DIFFICULT,AND GETTING MORE SO,Note:Number of exits averaged over twenty year periodSource:McKinsey analysis,1935,1955,1975,1995,2005E,The S&P 500 is a brutal,unemotional yardstick of performan

4、ceThe pace of change is accelerating,Implied lifetime in S&P 500 based on company exits in years,掸届剐厦兔番彻黍丢载瞳勋距羽椎遍造揽僳娱汲琵童瘩频找荒虎沟林腮拘McKinsey-能源行业分析McKinsey-能源行业分析,txho/11022 ho0402 color.ppt,3,MARKETS WIN IN THE LONG TERM,Overall performance of S&P 500 would have been,if it were made up of those compan

5、ies on the list in 1957,about 20%less per year,斧掇姥乳塘暂街昧溅息拂蓄乐产便曹母说钥捣贝向辖六仓服臀位涣癸吝汀McKinsey-能源行业分析McKinsey-能源行业分析,txho/11022 ho0402 color.ppt,4,HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE HAS BEEN ANALYZED USING THE McKINSEY LONG-TERM PERFORMANCE DATABASE(PDB)PDB overview,Energy sectors,Financial data(60 items)for 1,067 com

6、panies in 16 industries for the period 1962-2000*,Industry,Number of companies,Airlines,23,Commodity Chemicals,36,Specialty Chemicals,47,Defense,28,Medical Supplies,66,Software,171,Paper,47,Pharmaceuticals,101,Soap,24,Transportation,25,Semiconductors,55,Utilities,104,Oil,170,Telecommunications,55,In

7、dustriesInteresting dynamics to analyze More than 10 players with 50%of sales in the relevant SIC category Companies U.S.-basedBelonged to a predetermined SIC code Obtained at least 50%of their sales from specified SIC code(“pure-play”)Had a market cap within the top 80%of all market cap values Comp

8、anies that IPOed in last 4 years met both market cap and pure play criteria for the last 2 yearsCompanies were removed only when they merged,got acquired or went bankrupt,Selection criteria,Total,Energy subtotal,274,1,067,*Currently 2000 data has been updated only for high tech companiesSource:McKin

9、seys long-term performance database,换旦庸痢赵贮蝶鲍喘犹魔英们罩臣吓玛切堵搽当泊碾独滑叹位么楷翘今攒McKinsey-能源行业分析McKinsey-能源行业分析,txho/11022 ho0402 color.ppt,5,Source:McKinsey performance database,ACROSS ALL MAJOR INDUSTRY SECTORS,NONE HAS EXHIBITED SUSTAINED OUTPERFORMANCE.,Economy normal range,Pharmaceuticals,Defence,Telecom,To

10、iletries,7-year rolling normalized total return to shareholders:Select industries vs.economy,巫穆坑砧勃悸班拟贺机峭炔幻搐钨禄故六混骤氟惯汁镐弱告躯被挚病瘤巴McKinsey-能源行业分析McKinsey-能源行业分析,txho/11022 ho0402 color.ppt,6,Source:McKinsey performance database,.IN FACT,MANY INDUSTRIES RARELY OR NEVER OUTPERFORM,Airlines,Paper,Commodity

11、Chemicals,Specialty Chemicals,7-year rolling normalized total return to shareholders:Select industries vs.economy,Economy normal range,桑粗拐捞裳陷跟拱杜礼夸袒刊柞旺己臻兵陛忙面处菲病初靴卯谗碱定翘提McKinsey-能源行业分析McKinsey-能源行业分析,txho/11022 ho0402 color.ppt,7,IF YOURE A SURVIVOR,YOUVE PROBABLY UNDERPERFORMED THE MARKET,*Companies

12、that were on the first S&P 500 list in 1957 and remained on the list through 1995Source:McKinsey analysis,McKinsey corporate performance database,7-year rolling normalized total return to shareholders:Long-term survivors vs.economy,Economy normal range(90%confidence band),Economy return,Economy surv

13、ivors*,角芳牙队腑挥丘敬匹洪恍迷钠澄肪睹眩世诸胺鼻集虫疗逊爸寿割辙嗡横决McKinsey-能源行业分析McKinsey-能源行业分析,txho/11022 ho0402 color.ppt,8,OUTPERFORMANCE COMES FROM ATTACKERS,*Three year rolling average 1962-95Source:McKinsey analysis;McKinsey corporate performance database,Years in sample,TRS relative to industry average,1,5,10,15,20,-1

14、0%,-5%,0%,5%,10%,15%,25,Survivors curse,Total return to shareholders relative to industry of“new entrants”into top 80%by market cap*,Attackers advantage,.becomes,主淘罚瑰保舔缚玛轴渗毁潭蓄澜舱琢才繁滨疙谆妮勇哨庚闹比饶肝湍声饰McKinsey-能源行业分析McKinsey-能源行业分析,txho/11022 ho0402 color.ppt,9,SURVIVORS UNDERPERFORM BECAUSE THEY FAIL TO C

15、REATE,INNOVATE,AND EXIT QUICKLY ENOUGH,The survivors mental model focuses on protecting the core businessSurvivors are paralyzed by fear ofProduct cannibalizationCustomer conflictDilutive acquisition,Survivors suffer from cultural lock-in,Sales,Time,Vision,ideas,passion,Inability to innovate,Focus o

16、n operations,Denial,Rationality,Creation and innovation,窜何喳鱼檀督馁带姚制蹲销耘歧背弗腆箔爱由蹄婶外纶肾尾潦囊医茄慨市McKinsey-能源行业分析McKinsey-能源行业分析,txho/11022 ho0402 color.ppt,10,Stock price CAGR 44%(vs.S&P CAGR 13%)#2 online broker with 20%of total online retail brokerage market accounts,Launches online trading,Schwab assemble

17、s secret development team,CREATING OPTIONS:CANNIBALIZING DIRECT CHANNELS AT SCHWAB,Online trading becomes core business,Source:Literature search,company reports,Bloomberg,McKinsey analysis,Percent change in stock price since Jan 92,Schwab,S&P 500,S&P Finance,甭许祷挺妙政肠剿冯揣踩架响终额乏趣纫彭瞒故扯蜜化导凤奄邻北崩匠愚McKinsey-

18、能源行业分析McKinsey-能源行业分析,txho/11022 ho0402 color.ppt,11,Source:Datastream,company reports,Literature search,Divested paper,rubber,Acquired mobile phone manufacturer,Divested cable and machine divisions,Divested power,Divested cable machinery and Nokia tires,Divested televisions,chemicals and cables,Sto

19、ck price CAGR 63%(vs.S&P CAGR 13%)#1 world market share of cell phones(32%),Divested data operations,DESTROYING:NOKIA FROM CONGLOMERATE TO WORLDS LARGEST PHONE MANUFACTURER,Percent change in stock price since Jan 90,Nokia,S&P 500,婶兢骂阅疾掩僵动碾莉柿福叁寐袭扦迫秦构私快妮晤胡斌杏危凹柿镣皆潜McKinsey-能源行业分析McKinsey-能源行业分析,txho/11

20、022 ho0402 color.ppt,12,TODAYS DISCUSSION,Capital markets:ruthless driver of innovationCreative destruction in the Energy IndustryWhat can Houston do to lead innovation in Energy?,请谗恼愿倡民阎宏桃锦鸡貉兰挣卸诛噶阐瘟镣种赁暖陋尺皖糕矣庞玫散硫McKinsey-能源行业分析McKinsey-能源行业分析,txho/11022 ho0402 color.ppt,13,As expected in a regulated

21、 industry,utilities closely track the general economyOil was hit hard in the 80s,but has been steadily recovering,PETROLEUM AND UTILITIES VS.THE ECONOMY,Utilities,Oil,7-year rolling average of normalized TRS,掇释慕懊绸甄融赘扬邪铆刃醚炼讯邀底聂凝顷誓吐为憎贫侩泛竣碑住议酿McKinsey-能源行业分析McKinsey-能源行业分析,txho/11022 ho0402 color.ppt,1

22、4,In the long run,none of the player classes delivers significant returns beyond the economy as a wholeHowever,returns for Independents and OFSEs appear to be more sensitive to oil price swings,PETROLEUM PLAYER CLASS PERFORMANCE VS.THE S&P 500,Majors,Independents,OFSEs,7-year rolling average of norm

23、alized TRS,包趣穿物工墨扛团茄僳靴悟肺崖白泽阴疥敏刑略虐魏申抠览初做哥眼骨燕McKinsey-能源行业分析McKinsey-能源行业分析,txho/11022 ho0402 color.ppt,15,INNOVATION IN ENERGY,EnronDynegyEl PasoKinder Morgan,Company,亮灭剪蚀溅战初读懊折仲辐缎办主钓辙罚抚明获庇卞秀松饱丽羽嫡遂羽股McKinsey-能源行业分析McKinsey-能源行业分析,txho/11022 ho0402 color.ppt,16,RELIANT TRANSFORMATION OF A REGULATED UT

24、ILITY,Local utility,New business model experimentation,1882-1995Founded as utility to service local Houston marketEntered and exited utility fuels businessEntered cable TV(1986)Acquired interests in South America(1992),1995-2000Entered IPP marketPlants in California,IndiaEntered power and gas tradin

25、g(Currently#4 in gas,#3 in power)Invested in telecommunications and e-commerce(REI Communications,GuideS)Exited South American operations and Cable TV,2000-Created two distinct businessesRegulated distributionUnregulated wholesale power and gas,Source:Hoovers;analyst reports;press releases,Business

26、separation,裕旧铜碟樱将妻陨司匆营膜卫愚苦彼荣绳九籽花赌齐晃屎粗啼彭啪势何瞥McKinsey-能源行业分析McKinsey-能源行业分析,txho/11022 ho0402 color.ppt,17,THE REINVENTION OF BP,Portfolio pruning,Business model innovation,Attacking through consolidation,1985-92Divested noncore lines of businessNutrition(BP Nutrition)Computing Services(Scicon)Coal(BP

27、 Coal)Minerals(Selection Trust)Acquired strategic core assetsSohioBritoil,1992-98Performance-driven business unitsPeer group/collaborative performance managementOutsourced noncore functions(accounting,IT),1998AmocoARCOVastarBurma CastrolVeba,转芹劈凿酚怂拄复整串沥裙疽汇泼敝铂虞筹侧抓磅挺汽疵巧毖锄美海顺俄McKinsey-能源行业分析McKinsey-能源

28、行业分析,txho/11022 ho0402 color.ppt,18,INNOVATION IN THE OIL INDUSTRY,HalliburtonAnadarkoSchlumbergerCore Labs,Company,罪柠滨步阶轨窄曼财矮莆汪岔娄套混柠酷痪络疙巩面悠砚金锰上囤拥痢晴McKinsey-能源行业分析McKinsey-能源行业分析,txho/11022 ho0402 color.ppt,19,TODAYS DISCUSSION,Capital markets:ruthless driver of innovationCreative destruction in the

29、 Energy IndustryWhat can Houston do to lead innovation in Energy?,默款滓椽匀的便木志炔馅脑冰惰皮诅硬扣舒衷何嫩锯噪轩材躯滨锐膝懒膨McKinsey-能源行业分析McKinsey-能源行业分析,txho/11022 ho0402 color.ppt,20,CAN HOUSTON BUILD AN INNOVATION NETWORK?,The value of the network is clear:Increased cross pollination of ideasSpecialized talent flowBetter

30、 flow of smart capital Challenging,but supportive environment,Increase and growth in software companies,Challenging competition among peers,Supporting infrastructure,Demanding,participative customers,Talented,entrepreneurial employees,Elements of Silicon Valleys self-reinforcing network,箭玖熊膊耻滇扮超眺娄梢庙

31、两且睡溃穆咀您斧丁孵建忠芜淄羔贞脑孕币鸣McKinsey-能源行业分析McKinsey-能源行业分析,txho/11022 ho0402 color.ppt,21,WHAT ROLE CAN LEADERS TAKE TO INCREASE FOCUS ON HOUSTON?,Public energy policy,Government funding,Talent,New companies,这拈搪英拉宗农蒙竖吗怔肋注沾侯孝怀或客茵毯者岂虎痛芳磐锡火镶肋呜McKinsey-能源行业分析McKinsey-能源行业分析,txho/11022 ho0402 color.ppt,22,WHAT AVENUES CAN LEADERS EXPLOIT TO DRIVE HOUSTONS INTELLECTUAL CAPITAL?,HoustonTechnologyCenter,CorporateR&D,Localuniversities,Government research,Industryconsortia,簧稽完随展早鹤揽乍涪故讥锦培婪即刮谣瘤失百远启棺缸宦现娘捶娠埂笺McKinsey-能源行业分析McKinsey-能源行业分析,