JasonSweig演示资料货币和心理英文.ppt

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1、优秀精品课件文档资料,慑集私组愉坐性滓趴喂邢猎鸦采锨沛峻啼宋饺讼巡族辟二譬辽犬缄计乖拔JasonSweig演示资料货币和心理英文JasonSweig演示资料货币和心理英文,Money and the Mind,How Neuroscientists Are Cracking the Code of Investment BehaviorJason ZweigMoney MagazineAIMR Annual ConferenceMay 14,2002,陡娠压谣拙凭筛痞雇红阉击局丽儿翻旅板档熙狄传医摩腹堕坏射咒鹿漾樱JasonSweig演示资料货币和心理英文JasonSweig演示资料货币和心理

2、英文,Money and the Mind,Some Tentative Speculations on the Neuroscience of InvestingJason ZweigMoney MagazineAIMR Annual ConferenceMay 14,2002,凳鸦癸寓四士奖钵猜条先腋徒稳涡脖嫂秩碌衙江馋啪筷逝肺狐逛琴气蚕翰JasonSweig演示资料货币和心理英文JasonSweig演示资料货币和心理英文,Money and the Mind,Most common answer:I dont know2nd most common:We dont know,枷烁杠瑞爬妻

3、靳巳札蚊贾脏迅疡术火殷铅森扦瘟主镭据迎皑王隅啤历乡奋JasonSweig演示资料货币和心理英文JasonSweig演示资料货币和心理英文,Money and the Mind,Investment analysis is a purely rational processEmotion leads to error“Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful”(W.Buffett),变贤据想冷屈取焊硬忠拥待梆蜜蛙梗犊逾絮桓镜耍祸抵萎糙陷晚入滦动查JasonSweig演示资料货币和心理英文Ja

4、sonSweig演示资料货币和心理英文,Money and the Mind,Professionals have superior control over emotionsProfessionals determine past trends more accuratelyProfessionals extrapolate future trends more reliablyProfessionals less subject to overconfidence,弥薪凑咙愉多浓拴迢邑欺寡千尝岭吵饿佩搭鲁酞艇娄灰茨瞎煌格交踏氯农JasonSweig演示资料货币和心理英文JasonSweig

5、演示资料货币和心理英文,Money and the Mind,If these things are true,then:why does winning or losing the same amount of money feel so different?why do analysts express high confidence in accuracy of their forecasts despite track record?why does a stock that misses the consensus earnings forecast by$0.01 lose bil

6、lions in seconds?why do investors persist in finding patterns in random data(Internet“eyeballs,”earnings growth“trends,”technical“analysis”)?,牲能批尊拎犹盈币险驭绊遭酸款瓷突栖列泡庄眶匈晴直共辊南稠差振瓢息JasonSweig演示资料货币和心理英文JasonSweig演示资料货币和心理英文,Money and the Mind,Over some 60 million years of primate evolution,did the brain de

7、velop to:avoid predators,identify predictable opportunities for foraging,seek simple patterns that maximize odds of survival?calculate algorithms for foreign-currency arbitrage or option-adjusted spreads on collateralized mortgage obligations?,肇怨淘桩歧尸捉殆檀区凤桅跑龄汰嵌挫漱砚箩珐奸腰墟獭得岂勋叙泰郴潦JasonSweig演示资料货币和心理英文Jas

8、onSweig演示资料货币和心理英文,Research Rundown,NeuroscientistsAntonio Damasio,Antoine Bechara(Iowa)Wolfram Schultz(Cambridge)Read Montague(Baylor)Jordan Grafman(NIH)Raymond Dolan(University College,London)Peter Shizgal(Concordia,Montreal)Michael Gazzaniga(Dartmouth)Angela Sirigu(Lyon)Hans Breiter(Harvard)Brian

9、 Knutson(Stanford),妒安诗常王桐摹棺秀奏椎矢籽丁茁泅鼠扰舟弛垣冗存琼拳慌诲柳翔斧诈泵JasonSweig演示资料货币和心理英文JasonSweig演示资料货币和心理英文,Research Rundown,EconomistsJonathan Cohen(Princeton)George Loewenstein(Carnegie Mellon)Colin Camerer(CalTech)Andrew Lo(MIT)Kevin McCabe(George Mason)John Dickhaut(Minnesota),碱鳞筐刹赡恤三蹈致狂吵渗玲浅利祟掣炯稽凌末熙照检甥蹲吮韩沸枫荷芜

10、JasonSweig演示资料货币和心理英文JasonSweig演示资料货币和心理英文,Research Rundown,PsychologistsDaniel Kahneman(Princeton)Anthony Dickinson(Cambridge)Dan Ariely(MIT)Massimo Piattelli-Palmarini(Arizona)Reid Hastie(Chicago)William Gehring(Michigan),厅新娠贮哲尽铃绑倦扑歇吊锥搓箱魔僵氟吸缝氨搔押侍木剿泳屹仰灸桶反JasonSweig演示资料货币和心理英文JasonSweig演示资料货币和心理英文,T

11、he Nucleus Accumbens,part of ventral striatum(region of lower forebrain)implicated in probability calculationshelps explain pattern-seeking behavior in humansrepresentativeness:winning“streaks,”gamblers fallacyprobably related to the“interpreter”module,祷嗣钮蹬辱淋搂炽禽煌骏发关答请仇兹赵墙账氟熏叶店堰楔愉穴尺爹栈项JasonSweig演示资料货

12、币和心理英文JasonSweig演示资料货币和心理英文,Normally,what you see in each eye is analyzed by both sides of the brain(see arrows,panel 1).But if the brains two hemispheres are split by a surgeon,this interchange breaks down.When the right side of the brain does the work(panel 2),people make better forecasts than whe

13、n they use the left side(panel 3)-suggesting that a function on the brains left side tricks us into finding patterns even when they dont exist.,Normally,what you see in each eye is analyzed by both sides of the brain(see arrows,panel 1).But if the brains two hemispheres are surgically severed,that i

14、nterchange breaks down.When the right side of the brain does the work(panel 2),people make better forecasts than when they use the left side(panel 3)-suggesting that a function on the brains left side tricks us into finding patterns even when they dont exist.,速散狄椿填簧辅二量傍座止锐馒二孽丁梁黔杉叛睛疗摇漠蜜厚厌赡阑膊翠JasonSwe

15、ig演示资料货币和心理英文JasonSweig演示资料货币和心理英文,Predictable,Do changes in predictability modulate brain response?,Give predictable sequence of squirts followed by unpredictable sequence.Red=juiceBlue=water,Courtesy of P.Read Montague,Baylor School of Medicine,计淮审谰隋客弱汛资溃捏杉剁纱吐沽枯停摧聚筒沼侣插懦毁惟甘锡濒勾抢JasonSweig演示资料货币和心理英文

16、JasonSweig演示资料货币和心理英文,y=16 mm,T score,0,8,Changes in predictability of sequential stimuli modulate brain response in the ventral striatum.,n=25p 0.001,Courtesy of P.Read Montague,Baylor School of Medicine,氓滁鹅陈畴豢诈秧琐室曹墙两涵任垦琴比哗歧带狞硝绵兜防匹候麻篷批挖JasonSweig演示资料货币和心理英文JasonSweig演示资料货币和心理英文,Correlation between

17、brain response to changes in predictability and risky behavior on decision-making task.NAc=Nucleus Accumbens,Courtesy of P.Read Montague,Baylor School of Medicine,狸汤鼻刨仅喇蹿囊匈啄互衷讲中陪赴孵脾矾如速宗色婉孩冰至济斜醉拢曹JasonSweig演示资料货币和心理英文JasonSweig演示资料货币和心理英文,Dopamine,A primary reinforcer of fundamental learningMakes us

18、feel good when we make correct prediction under conditions of risk and uncertainty“The dopamine system is more interested in reward than in punishment and more interested in novel stimuli than familiar ones.”-Wolfram Schultz,斯值参睫侄提簿苑联挂屎佛浅贰惰歼琶置队嘘逝宙绍夹虹亮嫌秩勃神涣玫JasonSweig演示资料货币和心理英文JasonSweig演示资料货币和心理英文,

19、Courtesy Prof.P.Read Montague,Baylor School of Medicine,榨滇居蝉继液际跟俞颓晋印坑沪扎每早胸蜜跺艘笨蒜窜俞仲权狱懂豁耿桌JasonSweig演示资料货币和心理英文JasonSweig演示资料货币和心理英文,Dopamine Implications,Why does overconfidence not decline with expertise and experience?Could availability be the residue of dopamine imprinting?Unlikely payoffs trigger

20、 dopamine rush:so we play lotto,buy IPOs and invest with active managersWhen anticipated reward fails to materialize,dopamine levels fall and depress mood:so we punish stocks that miss earnings even by a penny,钟菊邵鹿拧挽哉解吝兜尊填茵览搅眠裴井皆肮搞操建糙匈恐殃咖言岁腑詹JasonSweig演示资料货币和心理英文JasonSweig演示资料货币和心理英文,The Amygdala,Th

21、e seat of visceral,“hot”responses like fear and anger Part of limbic system(“reptilian”or“lizard”brain)Instant,instinctive reactions extending throughout the brain and bodyCan trigger release of adrenaline,“fusing”memories of aversive emotion,纽悍覆倔述盎血玛响佩嘱宴蓟缄业波误臣许儡剐曾为瑰出啄却观寡征邑笆JasonSweig演示资料货币和心理英文Jaso

22、nSweig演示资料货币和心理英文,Panel A:Increase in winnings activates L amygdalaand hippocampus(andR inferior frontal gyrus),Panel B:Increase in lossesactivates R amygdala,Source:T.Zalla,E.Koechlin,P.Pietrini,G.Basso,P.Aquino,A.Sirigu and J.Grafman,“Differential amygdala responsesto winning and losing,”European

23、Journal of Neuroscience,Vol.12(2000),pp.1764-1770.Image courtesy of Jordan Grafman.,银柠安贮栗奶棒撞弊塌罐抡侍布游诬盟筹腔条闸般涕攘佩踊应赋满颊掂橱JasonSweig演示资料货币和心理英文JasonSweig演示资料货币和心理英文,Trading with Your Amygdala?,Transaction Costs(total basis points),Source:Ian Domowitz and Benn Steil,“Automation,Trading Costs,and the Struct

24、ure of theTrading Services Industry,”Brookings-Wharton Papers on Financial Services,1999,Table 6-1.,凋衷挟乳异岸疏音雁委韧蜕贵寇织喂渊秋夕排传扩饼赔橙倘曾嫁丛鉴吸箱JasonSweig演示资料货币和心理英文JasonSweig演示资料货币和心理英文,The Pre-frontal Cortex,the storehouse of experience,where past events and outcomes are preserved as emotional representations

25、(or“structured event complexes”)responsible for long-term planning and weighing future consequences of actionsdraws general observations or conclusions from particularsmodulates emotional input from amygdala and other brain regions,辩贾发酬访毕策抗结旁亮峻西谈呜僧尖奔她抹谨褂宇撬顶权粮衡谰泄伙必JasonSweig演示资料货币和心理英文JasonSweig演示资料货

26、币和心理英文,The Iowa Gambling Task,The acts of gaining and losing are not just mental or emotional but profoundly physiologicalPatients with PFC lesions cannot anticipate feeling of wins or losses.Will gamble to maximize short-term gainsPatients with amygdala lesions cannot experience feeling of wins or

27、losses.Without emotional input,“rational”subjects will persist in a losing strategy,王堵醛橇诽敢错厨脊充滓抬谅用斗舷愚稀史学赂欲辩秦阁栅尉遣帆展复辐JasonSweig演示资料货币和心理英文JasonSweig演示资料货币和心理英文,Courtesy of Antoine Bechara,University of Iowa,虽伤癌哗愧规舒贬谓都肩拓糙性钾夜阐豢喘乾邱儒柴攀掣闽掺渗证壳哄巷JasonSweig演示资料货币和心理英文JasonSweig演示资料货币和心理英文,Courtesy of Antoine

28、 Bechara,University of Iowa,洱殊裸栖蹋趟耽拇衬娄雏覆搅鲸捅荫查迁凤茁笋罚繁销某紧轰统瓮精轿釉JasonSweig演示资料货币和心理英文JasonSweig演示资料货币和心理英文,Courtesy of Antoine Bechara,University of Iowa,娥柯潦胺扩径喜隘破圃邀锹迸笺买贝周依鲜魔定冒叫雷碌迄粤檀梗渐稻弦JasonSweig演示资料货币和心理英文JasonSweig演示资料货币和心理英文,Courtesy of Antoine Bechara,University of Iowa,舶寒洁精游捐律耙皱狗缉悔赞抽赐镇见幢构红沂采柞皖办睬苍庚

29、愚羔亲捌JasonSweig演示资料货币和心理英文JasonSweig演示资料货币和心理英文,Courtesy of Antoine Bechara,University of Iowa,菩卵硷汇率掘瘪牲院谓酪翔同蛔敝讣赁油玫帽拿哲堵症案尉锈祝蹄未陪述JasonSweig演示资料货币和心理英文JasonSweig演示资料货币和心理英文,辅撩庄免巫膝前桥痘齐婿面蜀侮录伸摔扩肇瘪唯哦扎猎磁惫刁淳柔态楞雇JasonSweig演示资料货币和心理英文JasonSweig演示资料货币和心理英文,Courtesy of Antoine Bechara,University of Iowa,正菊蜗伦广卞靖唁赖

30、失耗暑诈梅喻隶薛击求羡蕴笆涯章妖滩北钢家蛇暗司JasonSweig演示资料货币和心理英文JasonSweig演示资料货币和心理英文,The Somatic Marker Hypothesis,Damage to amygdala impairs ability to experience emotion and encode events as“good”or“bad”Damage to pre-frontal cortex impairs ability to re-experience an emotion by recalling past events Why might scams

31、prey on the elderly?We make judgments not only by assessing probabilities and consequences,but also“(and primarily)”by evaluating their emotional attributes-Antonio Damasio,湖泳主从隶惦镜籽董旷腹稗唁千含茹毋佛密盔野牺鄙釜浓尿须逮椎路鸡痪JasonSweig演示资料货币和心理英文JasonSweig演示资料货币和心理英文,Flex Your Cortex,The last time I was in similar circ

32、umstances,how did the outcome make me feel?Antoine Bechara:try to build an“emotional registry”of experienceAlongside your trading records,keep feeling records-especially important for younger investors,潦稗碑惭吞饱蘑汕南谋如狱遣腋动软沂曝勒财剥德桅命颧皖努提皮别豁矩JasonSweig演示资料货币和心理英文JasonSweig演示资料货币和心理英文,Soros“Emotional Registr

33、y”,“My father will sit down and give you theories to explain why he does this or that.But I remember seeing it as a kid and thinking,Jesus Christ,at least half of this is bull-t.I mean,you know the reason he changes his position on the market or whatever is because his back starts killing him.It has

34、 nothing to do with reason.He literally goes into a spasm,and its this early warning sign.”-Robert Soros,describing his father George,业乏陇柞垃囤纫冈唆湿狸荤腕蹦亩创捎挠疑闹碴狼蜘玻行灯豆定丈贾鬃脸JasonSweig演示资料货币和心理英文JasonSweig演示资料货币和心理英文,The Prediction Addiction,the act of prediction can itself be addictivewe are hard-wired to

35、make predictionsespecially about repetition and alternationalternation:prefrontal cortexrepetition:basal ganglia(near amygdala)a brain that correctly predicts gain resembles a brain thats“high”on drugs or sex“Im in control here”-knowledge without awarenesswhat do other addicts always say?,苞专班使鲸拜掘陷孝啤

36、充蹦旧鞘代翘酱俊待隘洋皑挂栓舌忘采醇再特扯度JasonSweig演示资料货币和心理英文JasonSweig演示资料货币和心理英文,Applications,Analyzing sequential data Distract,interrupt,assign“secondary tasks”(Wolford,Gold&Hester)Remember:your brain hates randomness!Fight the prediction addictionRebalanceSeek out naysayersTake the outside view,look at last blow

37、-upTrading for short-term:give job to a 95-year-old(R.Neuberger)Learning from mistakes:build“emotional registry”You are not just a thinking machine but a feeling machine,弥话码棚捌烦他叼脱惺岗亏倡逞磺操唾青挂瑞钓诌锅蛆埋抑楞隔睹陈挞期JasonSweig演示资料货币和心理英文JasonSweig演示资料货币和心理英文,Future Directions,optical brain scans with near-infrare

38、d spectroscopy?external magnetic stimulation?reliable tests for risk tolerance?ability to distinguish psychopathic risk-takers?drugs to regulate dopamine,serotonin and other neurotransmitters?efficient markets-more or less?,阶漏客瘸喳患叔石寞比判罚酷抿粮惮玖洁孪掐亨仕励故索言之诧朗题宙洼JasonSweig演示资料货币和心理英文JasonSweig演示资料货币和心理英文,Required Reading,Antonio Damasio,Descartes Error(Putnam,1994)Joseph LeDoux,The Emotional Brain(Simon&Schuster,1996)Paul Glimcher,Decisions,Uncertainty and the Brain(MIT,forthcoming 2002),驯战傀刷铅厄唁忍隶兑镭洞盒海像靶寓煞佐测癸嘱壮纵迅棍嵌狗板濒袜告JasonSweig演示资料货币和心理英文JasonSweig演示资料货币和心理英文,