《工程力学A》课程教学大纲Title.ppt

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1、COMPARABILITY OF SAVING AND PROFIT RATIOS,OECD National Accounts Experts MeetingChateau de la Muette,Paris7-10 October 2003,汽车防盗器,Background,Discussion of alternative household saving measures at October 2002 NAEMECB/OECD projectDetailed examination of institutional sector accounts for the euro area

2、,the United States and Japan with particular emphasis on household saving ratios,profit ratios and investment ratiosScope of this paperHousehold saving ratiosProfit ratios,Household saving ratios,Issues relating to the basic measure of the household saving ratioGross or net?Include NPISH?Change in n

3、et equity of households on pension fundsAdjusted household disposable incomeProposed definition for use in OECD Statistical Databases(including Annex Table 24 of Economic Outlook)Further adjustments to the household saving ratio,Statistical Annex Table 24,OECD Economic Outlook,Reproduced as Table 1-

4、shows household saving ratios for 21 member countriesFootnotes to this table indicate differences in the data currently being published for various countriesOECD Economics Department tends to use measures for the household saving ratio and other variables that will be readily recognised in the membe

5、r countriesHence what is published by member countries in their own national accounts has an effect on international comparability,Gross or net household saving,Net is the preferred measureOnly use gross if COFC estimates are deficientData for 7 countries is currently shown grossRecommendation 1:It

6、is recommended that the seven countries(Belgium,Denmark,Italy,Portugal,Spain,Switzerland and the United Kingdom)include household saving ratios in their national accounts publications on a net basis instead of,or in addition to,the gross measures.,Include NPISH,Data for 5 countries currently exclude

7、 NPISHRecommendation 2:In the interests of international comparability it is recommended that the five countries(Czech Republic,Finland,France,Japan and New Zealand)also include household saving ratios for households including NPISH in their national accounts publications.,Change in net equity of ho

8、useholds on pension funds,Current definition:B8/(B6+D8)Where B8=Net household saving B6=Net household disposable income D8=Change in net equity of households on pension fundsTable 2 provides household saving ratios using this formula and data from the OECD annual SNA93 databaseRecommendation 3:It is

9、 recommended that countries that have a non-nil value for the adjustment for the change in equity of households on pension funds(D8)should verify that their own saving ratios are consistent with this definition.,Adjusted household disposable income,New concepts introduced in SNA93Collective and indi

10、vidual consumption for general governmentSocial transfers in kindActual final consumptionAdjusted household disposable incomeNew account in SNA93 Use of adjusted disposable income accountThese enable a more internationally comparable household saving ratio to be computed,Adjusted household disposabl

11、e income(cont),Net household saving(B8)/Net adjusted household disposable income(B7)+Adjustment for the change in equity of households on pension funds(D8)Table 3 provides household saving ratios for member countries using this definition and using data from the OECD annual SNA93 database.Table 4 sh

12、ows the differences between this measure and the current measure for the household saving ratio shown in Table 2.,Proposed definition for the household saving ratio,Recommendation 4:The household saving ratio for inclusion in OECD Statistical Databases(including Annex Table 24 of the OECD Economic O

13、utlook)should be defined as follows:Net household saving(B8)/Net adjusted household disposable income(B7)+Adjustment for the change in equity of households on pension funds(D8)The ratio should be calculated including NPISH for the present.,Proposed definition for the household saving ratio(cont),It

14、is also recommended that countries publish this measure of household saving in their own national accounts publications in addition to the traditional measure.Question:Are those countries that publish quarterly household saving ratios able to provide estimates for individual consumption for general

15、government on a quarterly basis?,Adjustments to the household saving ratio,Capital gains taxesDirect taxes versus taxes on production and importsReal net interest payments for householdsHousehold durablesPotential and realised capital gains/lossesOther issues regarding pensionsTreatment of unincorpo

16、rated enterprisesFinancial accounts measure,Adjustments to the household saving ratio(cont),Statistics Directorate is working towards alternative saving measuresNeed to recognise the limitations of some of the proposed adjustments since it cannot be assumed that the economic behaviour of households

17、would be unaffected if different institutional arrangements actually existed in particular countries.,Capital gains taxes,Proposed adjustmentTreat capital gains taxes as capital transfers rather than current transfersAdd back capital gains taxes to household saving and household disposable income OE

18、CD paper to be discussed under agenda item 29Seems unlikely that a change in SNA93 will be recommended to the ISWGNAItem for capital gains taxes added to Table 900,Direct taxes versus taxes on production and imports,Saving is not affected by the mix of these taxes but household disposable income isH

19、ow adjust?Replace taxes on production etc by income taxesReplace income taxes by taxes on production etcUse a standard mix of taxes for all countriesSuggest the first of these alternativesDeduct taxes on production etc from HDIIssuesTaxes on production etc or taxes on products?Net of subsidies?,Dire

20、ct taxes versus taxes on production and imports(cont),Issues(cont)How much is attributable to actual final consumption?Some of the production taxes could be replaced by income taxes on corporations rather than all on householdsDifficult to estimate what part of taxes on production is attributable to

21、 actual final consumptionNo reason to ignore subsidiesTherefore,propose using taxes on products less subsidies on products as a rough approximationTable 5(adjusted ratios)and Table 6(differences),Real net interest payments for households,Adjustment for the effect of inflation on interest rates and i

22、nterest flowsNeutral interestReal interest=Nominal interest-neutral interestOnly include real interest flows when deriving household saving and HDI,therefore need toDeduct neutral interest on assetsAdd neutral interest on liabilitiesAssets used for adjustment should include assets held on households

23、 behalf by pension funds,life insurance corporations and mutual funds etc,Household durables,Households regard consumer durables as assetsRental equivalence approach could be used to derive alternative estimates in satellite accountsHowever,rental markets for long term use of consumer durables may n

24、ot be well developedTherefore,if we assume no operating surplus is generated from consumer durables an approximate adjustment is to subtract expenditure on durables from,and add consumption of fixed capital on durables to,HFCEConsequently,household saving would be increased by net investment in cons

25、umer durables,Household durables(cont),OECD and Eurostat are discussing proposals for additional data collection regarding household durables and dwellingsCOFC for household durables,Capital stock for dwellings and household durables,Capital gains/losses on dwellingsRecommendation 5:Countries are en

26、couraged to compile separate estimates of household final consumption expenditure,capital stock and consumption of fixed capital for consumer durables.,Capital gains and losses,Have a significant impact on wealth and consumption of households but are not included in household income in SNA93Potentia

27、l versus realised capital gainsDifferent impact on consumption than income from production or transfersImpact may be different for realised as opposed to potential capital gainsNominal or real capital gains?,Capital gains and losses(cont),Recommendation 6:Rather than adjusting the household saving r

28、atio for capital gains/losses directly,it is recommended that capital gains/losses be used as an additional explanatory variable when analysing household consumption behaviour.,Pensions,Defined benefit schemesProblem of under or over fundingUnfunded pension schemesActual pensions do not match accrui

29、ng liabilities for these schemesSocial security versus private pension schemesDifferent institutional arrangements contribute to observed differences in household saving ratios,Pensions,Recommendation 7:It is recommended that adjustments in relation to social security schemes should be undertaken as

30、 a special exercise and not combined with other adjustments to derive an alternative measure of the household saving ratio.The pensions EDG sponsored by the IMF provides an opportunity to resolve the problems caused by defined benefit schemes and unfunded pension schemes for public sector employees

31、in the context of the forthcoming revision of SNA93.Anne Harrisons paper on the pensions EDG makes a valuable contribution concerning this issue.,Unincorporated enterprises,For which countries are unincorporated enterprises that are treated as quasi-corporate quantitatively significant?Do such count

32、ries compile estimates for compensation of employees for working proprietors in quasi-corporations or is the labour return to these working proprietors included in operating surplus?Do such countries have separate data on the level of withdrawals from quasi-corporations or do they simply assume that

33、 all of the entrepreneurial income of quasi-corporations is transferred to households in the current period?,Financial accounts measure,Change in financial position(financial account)versus Net lending(capital account)If all of the difference is assumed to be caused by deficiencies in income flows t

34、hen can derive the following alternative measure of the household saving ratioTable 7 gives these ratios,and Table 8 shows the difference between these ratios and those in Table 2.Obviously the differences could be caused by deficiencies in any of the items in the income,capital or financial account

35、s,Additional measures for the household saving ratio,An alternative measure or a series of alternative measures?Do countries have a preference for whether a series of saving ratios should be compiled,each including an adjustment for one factor or whether a single alternative measure should be compil

36、ed that includes adjustments for all(or as many as possible)of the various factors simultaneously?,Profit ratios,Country practicesTypes of profit ratiosDefinitionsGross or net?NumeratorDenominator for rates of returnDenominator for profit shareInstitutional sector scope,Country practices,Profit rati

37、os are presented in many different ways by member countriesUnited KingdomGross balance of primary incomes for non-financial corporations as a share of gross national incomeEconomic Trends article containing data for 34 countries for net operating surplus over net capital stock plus inventories for n

38、on-financial corporationsUnited States8 ratios;4 rate of return measures and 4 profit share measuresRatios relate to private non-financial corporations,Country practices(cont),United States(cont)Net operating surplus and net entrepreneurial income are used both before and after income tax as the num

39、erator for each type of measure(Note:Different terminology is used by BEA)Net capital stock plus inventories is used as the denominator for rate of return measuresNet factor income less NOS for public corporations is used as the denominator for profit share measures AustraliaGross operating surplus

40、for financial and non-financial corporations divided by total factor incomeFranceGOS/Gross value added at basic prices for all enterprises(corporate and quasi-corporate plus unincorporated),Types of profit ratios,Rates of returnProfit over capital stockUsed for profitability studiesProfit sharesProf

41、it over GDP,GNI or total factor incomeUsed for analyses of returns to labour and capitalProfit marginProfit over outputNot recommended at the macro economy level,Definitions for rate of return and profit share measures,Gross or netBoth numerator and denominator should be net of consumption of fixed

42、capitalUse gross measure if consumption of fixed capital estimates are deficientNumerator(for both rates of return and profit shares)Net operating surplusIndependent of the extent to which borrowed funds are usedEntrepreneurial incomeAfter receipts of property income and payments of interest and ren

43、t on non-produced assets used by the business,Definitions for rate of return and profit share measures(cont),Denominator for rate of return measuresNet capital stock for produced assetsIncluding inventories?Non-produced tangible assets?Non-produced intangible assets?Denominator for profit share meas

44、uresNet domestic productNet factor incomeWhole economyInstitutional sector used for numerator,Institutional sector scope,Non-financial corporationsFinancial corporationsFinancial and non-financial corporationsCorporations and unincorporated enterprisesIdeally mixed income should be split into a retu

45、rn to the labour provided by working proprietors and a return to capitalPrivate and public sub-sectors for corporations,Recommendations regarding profit ratios,Profit margin type ratios using output as the denominator should not be compiled at the macro economy level.Rates of return and profit share

46、s should be calculated net of consumption of fixed capital,unless COFC estimates are seriously deficient.Net operating surplus should be used as the numerator if rates of return are being calculated at an industry level.Otherwise,net operating surplus or entrepreneurial income may be used as the num

47、erator for both rates of return and profit share measures.,Recommendations regarding profit ratios(cont),For rate of return measures the net capital stock should be defined to include produced assets and inventories.For profit share measures various ratios may be calculated depending on the analyses

48、 being undertaken.If a pure profit share measure is required,the variables in both the numerator and denominator should relate to the institutional sector(s)for which the ratio is being calculated.,Recommendations regarding profit ratios(cont),Recommendation 8:The ratio of net operating surplus divi

49、ded by net factor income for the non-financial corporations sector should be one of the profit share ratios included in OECD Statistical Databases(including the Statistical Annex of the OECD Economic Outlook).Other profit share ratios should also be considered for inclusion.Table 9 provides profit share ratios for non-financial corporations using data from the OECD annual SNA93 databaseCountry views are welcome on the most appropriate profit ratios for inclusion in OECD Statistical Databases(including the Statistical Annex to the Economic Outlook),