国际金融课件约瑟夫P.丹尼尔斯.ppt

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1、The International Financial Architecture and Emerging Economies,INTERNATIONAL MONETARY AND FINANCIAL ECONOMICS,Third Edition,Joseph P.DanielsDavid D.VanHoose,Copyright South-Western,a division of Thomson Learning.All rights reserved.,痔欢巨兑惯镑蔗洋钩寅装绣氓顷葡当琼茸苗步面癸幻绥掌舜类缄试途才昼国际金融课件（约瑟夫 P.丹尼尔斯）国际金融课件（约瑟夫 P.丹尼尔

2、斯）,International Financial Architecture,The international financial architecture is the set of international institutions,governmental and nongovernmental organizations,and the policies that govern activity in the international monetary and financial markets.,酿将哺课嫡赂拯莲撅野续西蔑赠版供挝际弊酸俺豺乏厌篡斩烹兆称榷妓们国际金融课件（约

3、瑟夫 P.丹尼尔斯）国际金融课件（约瑟夫 P.丹尼尔斯）,International Capital Flows,Growth in foreign direct investment(FDI)is one of the most important developments in international capital markets.An FDI inflow is an acquisition of domestic financial assets that results in foreign residents owning 10 percent or more of a do

4、mestic entity.An FDI outflow is an acquisition of foreign financial assets that results in domestic residents owning 10 percent or more of a foreign entity.,寄锰省碴栋囤阴褪椎涯稀泣沛据炙菊剔彭悄暴瓢趁衫滩吮供泉染研睁噬秀国际金融课件（约瑟夫 P.丹尼尔斯）国际金融课件（约瑟夫 P.丹尼尔斯）,Mergers and Acquisitions,Cross-border mergers and acquisitions are a drivi

5、ng force of recent growth in FDI in the developed economies.Cross-border mergers and acquisitions entail combining of firms located in different nations in which one firm absorbs the assets and liabilities of another firm(merger)or purchases the assets and liabilities of another firm(acquisition).,匈

6、拥决亿锋雄詹匠卑蛛负折倍专卢镰久皮廖谚架芋湖寇跺蚁拢糜使翻躁锭国际金融课件（约瑟夫 P.丹尼尔斯）国际金融课件（约瑟夫 P.丹尼尔斯）,Cross-Border Mergers and Acquisitions,During 1990-2000,M&A inflows of the developed nations increased by more than 500 percent while inflows of the developing nations increased by nearly 600 percent.,尖赫山卧酱伦咖茎蚜藻葫士樱静笺延马谱田膀捉陡器顿原恢疑忻苞速罩冠

7、国际金融课件（约瑟夫 P.丹尼尔斯）国际金融课件（约瑟夫 P.丹尼尔斯）,Net Capital Flows to Emerging Economies,Despite recent financial crises,private capital flows to the emerging economies have grown at a remarkable rate.,绝粗拈健渐硒先嘻诣罕拦衰撞崎肚郧吃于胸串谢鬼属勤朵捅户藩害平刚银国际金融课件（约瑟夫 P.丹尼尔斯）国际金融课件（约瑟夫 P.丹尼尔斯）,Emerging Economies of the Western Hemisph

8、ere,Prior to the 1994 Mexican peso crisis,a large portion of FDI inflows consisted of portfolio capital.Since 1994,FDI flows are a greater proportion of the total capital flows.,盗叶暖痘虱经彬揩鳃巧绥储娟剧办苑两丝甭尝扑陌甩财颂撕稚耗桂隅掀厚国际金融课件（约瑟夫 P.丹尼尔斯）国际金融课件（约瑟夫 P.丹尼尔斯）,Emerging Economies of Asia,Though the emerging econom

9、ies of East Asia attracted substantial FDI flows during the mid-1990s,they relied heavily on portfolio,bank loans,and other forms of short-term capital.,腑体伐埠易叶国技帖仓崔箕苯吵吕副忿照搅杠壳颗疲岛呢憋坚驼毅蓑阵嫌国际金融课件（约瑟夫 P.丹尼尔斯）国际金融课件（约瑟夫 P.丹尼尔斯）,Capital Allocations and Growth,With access to foreign capital,domestic residen

10、ts and businesses can continue to save and invest during domestic economic downturns,thereby smoothing business cycles.Access to global capital can also reduce investment costs for a developing economy,thereby spurring greater investment spending.,铬寿寻植熔局住雹景砖的亢争略悼宫具酬诈绷牙炭奖纺剧览跑晤呐审糖布国际金融课件（约瑟夫 P.丹尼尔斯）国际

11、金融课件（约瑟夫 P.丹尼尔斯）,Financial-Sector Development,Because financial intermediaries perform an important role in channeling capital,financial-sector developmentthe strengthening and growth of the nations financial sector institutions,payments systems,and regulatory agenciescontributes to attracting globa

12、l capital and promoting domestic saving.,慷缚苑郴窜红失臻艇放郁卿怨徽涟热蝗斋煮卢虱个钧渡麦递惯啃上擂忠漾国际金融课件（约瑟夫 P.丹尼尔斯）国际金融课件（约瑟夫 P.丹尼尔斯）,Capital Misallocations,Market imperfections,such as asymmetric information,adverse selection,herding behavior,and moral hazard(Chapter 6)may lead to capital misallocation.Policy-created dist

13、ortionsgovernment policies that result in a market producing a level of output that is different from the economically efficient level of outputmay also result in capital misallocations.,榜母殿序圈惕肃绝仇凑秉粉叭绿马动还有瘤卉补北哲邀滴片兰预缩逛玖离国际金融课件（约瑟夫 P.丹尼尔斯）国际金融课件（约瑟夫 P.丹尼尔斯）,Capital Market Liberalization,Capital market

14、 liberalizationpolicy actions designed to allow relatively open issuance and competition in a nations stock and bond marketentails seeking to maximize the benefits of capital inflows while minimizing the risk of financial instability and crisis.,灾氯像贸仆瞄铡逝窍近氦威今颜手哄腋荒肚坊琢弃携脆葛打笆膨淹缠兵凝国际金融课件（约瑟夫 P.丹尼尔斯）国际金融

15、课件（约瑟夫 P.丹尼尔斯）,Liberalization and Financial Crises,Both portfolio flows and FDI flows have their benefits and risks.Portfolio Investment Involves the acquisition of foreign financial assets that results in less than a 10 percent ownership share in the entity.Hence,portfolio flows can reverse directi

16、on quickly,generating financial instability.Foreign Direct Investment(FDI)A long-term investment strategy in which the source of funds establishes financial control,making FDI a stabilizing influence on a nations economy.,歌脏图覆讥尊玛烦委筋燎糖糖裴焦恭沿庭谷狰声泣螺捆惑敷肉烹毙志我谣国际金融课件（约瑟夫 P.丹尼尔斯）国际金融课件（约瑟夫 P.丹尼尔斯）,Capital C

17、ontrols,Some economists advocate the use of capital controlslegal restrictions on the ability of a nations residents to hold and exchange assets denominated in foreign currencies.Most economists are skeptical of the effectiveness of capital controls because empirical studies indicate that only tempo

18、rary controls on capital inflows may prove to be effective.,婿斌碑挚盖费益枝拔浪趁庐产揍萝藩诚对纫爱责食模站碰脊雌稚迈楔捣易国际金融课件（约瑟夫 P.丹尼尔斯）国际金融课件（约瑟夫 P.丹尼尔斯）,Schools of Thought on Exchange Rate Regimes,In the 1990s,there were two schools of thought on exchange rate regimes.The first school of thought was that there should not b

19、e an explicit target for the exchange rate because small misses of the target could cause perception or credibility problems.The second school of thought was that without an explicit target,policymakers are unable to establish policy credibility.,厚嘿欢寥栅聪传央昨流乙蛇艳获熙燕不渠铆樱巨蘑歌浮预哑金舒关屋兆圣国际金融课件（约瑟夫 P.丹尼尔斯）国际金

20、融课件（约瑟夫 P.丹尼尔斯）,The Corners Hypothesis,By the end of the 1990s a third view,the corners hypothesis,emerged.This view was that countries should not necessarily fix or float.Rather,they should have a firm commitment to one end of the spectrum or the other.In other words,policymakers should adopt eithe

21、r a rigid peg or a pure float.,供谅魄挛鹿欧撕桑搬吩荐邹佩斥贴纵砖智秦彤令旭益筒弘程簿壕存扬艰我国际金融课件（约瑟夫 P.丹尼尔斯）国际金融课件（约瑟夫 P.丹尼尔斯）,Dollarization,Since the collapse of Argentinas currency-board arrangement,a growing number of economists have advocated dollarizationthe replacement of the domestic currency with the currency of anoth

22、er nation for emerging economies.Two possible problems are the loss of seigniorage revenues and the loss of discretionary monetary policy.Panama,El Salvador and Ecuador are dollarized.,干溜硼简鼻拼百璃良皱彩酱瑞昔痉酬疤嘘济娄听诀凰誊碘篙洒卒扯羔橙碾国际金融课件（约瑟夫 P.丹尼尔斯）国际金融课件（约瑟夫 P.丹尼尔斯）,Which Regime?,Today,prominent economists such

23、as Frankel and Calvo,argue that it all three broad types of exchange-rate regimes,fixed,float and intermediate may be appropriate.The point is that it is the circumstances(business cycles and institutions)of the nation that are most important.,缄刚线唯絮皑踩员喘瓦笔定娄泰蛾谆弥认拱淹宅唁增宿激弃孙悟痊冲洲预国际金融课件（约瑟夫 P.丹尼尔斯）国际金融课件

24、（约瑟夫 P.丹尼尔斯）,International Monetary Fund,The International Monetary Fund:A multinational organization that promotes international monetary cooperation and that provides temporary financial assistance to nations experiencing balance-of-payments difficulties.Growth in IMF Membership:The number of memb

25、er nations in the IMF is now about six times larger than it was when the organization was founded.Conditionality:The limitations on the range of allowable actions of a government that is a recipient of IMF loans.,凿刃猩怔缓迢仁墩兢汐福容墟椰倡募冯谐疾洋蹿是答翰忠诀异絮雏抬旗野国际金融课件（约瑟夫 P.丹尼尔斯）国际金融课件（约瑟夫 P.丹尼尔斯）,World Bank Lending

26、,Even though Africa has the worlds poorest nations,it has received only 19 percent of total World Bank loans since 1990.,踞柏拌彰褪枫呼立额鼠荒研耘誊柿诵闰斌罢鸿蛇臭模稽贿爽个裹蜒授步似国际金融课件（约瑟夫 P.丹尼尔斯）国际金融课件（约瑟夫 P.丹尼尔斯）,Crisis Prediction and Early Warning,Financial Crisis Indicator:An economic variable that normally moves in a s

27、pecific direction and by a certain relative amount in advance of a financial crisis,thereby helping to predict a coming crisis.Early Warning System:A mechanism that multinational institutions might use to track financial crisis indicators to determine that a crisis is on the horizon,thereby permitting a rapid response to head off the crisis.,梧称以摆砌管畸棒冲尽收汇搔毕愚塘肘碉睁村扫萍速梭年目这筒颗坞囊王国际金融课件（约瑟夫 P.丹尼尔斯）国际金融课件（约瑟夫 P.丹尼尔斯）,