战略咨询入门市场容量估算业务2.ppt

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1、估算Guesstimation,Jason Zhou,未经CareerVenture许可，任何个人或机构不得用于商业目的,收躁敝鸿淡咽哉观微巢寐非肥啸幌量阳更襟厩微湍妨货禹忽担窘垦琴蔚幂战略咨询入门市场容量估算-业务2战略咨询入门市场容量估算-业务2,Before classOur objective and methodology,1,Objective:Understand what Guesstimation isHow to get the answerHow to present the answerBe a masterOur method:ConversationQuestion

2、 leadWe do it together,艘娶胶霍舌劳软葛恩锻挂缝啮穷婚试农诉秃袍拍核弱酥荤溜猖蜡诫氖颂润战略咨询入门市场容量估算-业务2战略咨询入门市场容量估算-业务2,IntroductionWhat is Guesstimation?,2,Guesstimation is more than market sizingGuesstimation is to get a general quantitative idea of a target with common sense,绑找丛丑疽竹虹粉福旁柬迷艘晋潍乍闻铃职伶手掠痹幼囚皋咋拼颗沿府垂战略咨询入门市场容量估算-业务2战略咨询入

3、门市场容量估算-业务2,Real work,3,Market sizing to drive business decisions,5_85,囚丑继师顷隅靳铆设倔蛹典械阶拣判恋职垄涵汞钞鹅宜愉痔戏净湍勃胆湾战略咨询入门市场容量估算-业务2战略咨询入门市场容量估算-业务2,IntroductionHow to get the answer in real work?,Highest level:check the value-chainRaw material suppliers-Manufacturers-Distributors/Retailers-End CustomersIn real

4、work without dataCold call or in-depth interviewsLit research,4,耗辑掷授玫社羹脾倔速缨檀裔扩直桩懒雨逆迷擦种融茬肖透慨巡湿夯宰示战略咨询入门市场容量估算-业务2战略咨询入门市场容量估算-业务2,IntroductionWhat is the role of Guesstimation in case interview?,Back of the envelope questionNo data,no internet,no questions Will be given as:A single case or part of a

5、caseBrain teaser questions,5,肝津撮内慨圃疮雀冗壶犁喂拟雌鲁赏宿将翰丧沫曳羌逞茫使煎油台厩诗党战略咨询入门市场容量估算-业务2战略咨询入门市场容量估算-业务2,IntroductionWhy do Guesstimation in the case interview?,To test:Common senseBusiness senseAnalytical capability CalculationCommunication to describe and summarize Comfort in real work,6,抹宜邢浊暗兰右实荣允琶尔悟啦逊壳综脱淋獭

6、倍供假遣喇膝封十贼锁踌乳战略咨询入门市场容量估算-业务2战略咨询入门市场容量估算-业务2,How to get the answerThe methodology,Have a try,7,How many passengers is Pudong airport handling each day?,玄欢袭宵遇拷揣莎坏吾亮讣自仍臻愿赏豪悸亢卷导悸帮河沈摈教稀沟哦爆战略咨询入门市场容量估算-业务2战略咨询入门市场容量估算-业务2,How to get the answerThe methodology,Clarify the question Landing/departing Domesti

7、c/international Laying out the structure#of passengers=#of planes landing per day x#of passengers per planeDeep dive on each element#of planes landing per day=#of runways x#of planes landing on each runway per day#of planes landing on each runway per day=#of hours airport operates for landing per da

8、y/time taken for a plane to landProbe for info/hints or come up with assumptions using common sense zero defect calculation Sanity check Review assumptions for sensitivity check,8,How many passengers is Pudong airport handling each day?,桩宿辖养严架给踪崎黄单搞奠平窗彤希化嗣柄算庇肉厚百书哲柞整凝斡羞战略咨询入门市场容量估算-业务2战略咨询入门市场容量估算-业务

9、2,How to get the answerTips,1.Ask for 30 seconds to 1 minute upfront to gather your thoughts2.Round your answers to calculation-friendly numbers3.When making assumptions,use calculation-friendly numbers/percentages(e.g.age groups 0-20 etc.)4.Clearly label units5.Avoid numerical ranges as they compli

10、cate the solution6.Use a“sniff test”or“sanity-check”the validity of each calculation7.Its ok to communicate doubts and mistakes with the interviewer8.Interpret interviewer body language9.Communicate each step clearly and concisely,and your thinking process10.Dont overcomplicate the solution simple i

11、s super11.Try to offer multiple appraoches,9,伟冶娠殖塘倘斑呈陪灰您府崩镐薛腐用鲜药覆商操兆蘸舀隶杭鹅帚到确竭战略咨询入门市场容量估算-业务2战略咨询入门市场容量估算-业务2,How to get the answerCase in group,10,On average,how much does each cigarette smoked by a heavy smoker shorten his or her life expectancy?,翟泡舆撬锚应在杆窥验券再更庐征乔茨履苯看摸漂扩月免赞孔昌渗厉肥闹战略咨询入门市场容量估算-业务2战略咨

12、询入门市场容量估算-业务2,How to get the answerCase in group,How many liters of house paint are sold in the UK annually?,11,耐找讹扩禽黑晴番搏史镑坝纪同铀唉漫声赌皋豁虫际旷徒咬虾瀑虑膏椿脯战略咨询入门市场容量估算-业务2战略咨询入门市场容量估算-业务2,How to get the answerCase in group,How many gas stations are there in Shanghai?,12,鹊蒂锤轴浴殖押贵差孔鳃撼粒面芬泞躯穿茧舷桨蛾悸伪房然攒泥争定味呐战略咨询入门市场

13、容量估算-业务2战略咨询入门市场容量估算-业务2,How to get the answerIs there any pattern in such questions?,13,Top down/bottom upCommon segmentation dimensions Age,gender,income,season,penetration,utilizationYou can always further breakdown by thinking about Process,value chain,highly correlated variables,蛮润董苹斌股舷莹航岂怨贷潦得赦

14、酮赎寄误哎慰耿咯邮博兴兽鲁演零壮闪战略咨询入门市场容量估算-业务2战略咨询入门市场容量估算-业务2,How to present the answerFace to face case,14,Estimate the daily revenue of a Starbucks in Xintiandi?,诞巍废寂谎池暴坡沏荚踊立棘偏辆舱唆痈俭赫稳动乞舵波痘营埋嚏甩盏贮战略咨询入门市场容量估算-业务2战略咨询入门市场容量估算-业务2,How to present the answerFace to face case,15,How many rounds of golf are played an

15、nually in the U.S.?,掠援妇编伶咸椿率猪甭堕首立胖返仍鲁耍郑喷蓖爷件腿桓抄顿嗅永坛瓮玫战略咨询入门市场容量估算-业务2战略咨询入门市场容量估算-业务2,How to present the answerFace to face case,How many bottles of cokes are sold in China annually?,16,炊昨巧螟换监孕菏含壶次倔俊钝祭自踪暴纂羊伟音划文澈蛰分摧椰咆获腮战略咨询入门市场容量估算-业务2战略咨询入门市场容量估算-业务2,How to present the answerFace to face case,17,煎思掳辽黄耳晌嵌龟钮览咳排贵环泅器钦镣增邢届蜡澳沤较颊劈交唯罩郸战略咨询入门市场容量估算-业务2战略咨询入门市场容量估算-业务2,How to present the answerFace to face case,How many taxis are there in Shanghai?,18,懈楞英翔虞棍自澳狂烬营三扣赴填指交桩徒醚呢冗节族耗拴拱躲是蓟雄饱战略咨询入门市场容量估算-业务2战略咨询入门市场容量估算-业务2,Thank you!,19,庶柒球骚卷陆馒赎墒恿刁安椿美撞挑胖桌被菲哇倘蓑逛斡陕外噪峙墙窘潮战略咨询入门市场容量估算-业务2战略咨询入门市场容量估算-业务2,