重访开放经济.ppt
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1、The Open Economy Revisited:the Mundell-Fleming Model and the Exchange-Rate Regime,12,晰攀椎湍狐暮罩枷需缆部胚戎侣配衙伙伐栏陪缮乾邑呻砷诌溺郎荔星文延重访开放经济重访开放经济,In this chapter,you will learn,the Mundell-Fleming model(IS-LM for the small open economy)causes and effects of interest rate differentialsarguments for fixed vs.floating
2、 exchange rateshow to derive the aggregate demand curve for a small open economy,弹肢抗持光疼腿肖蔗剃伪以犁捎连趾钎走扔磕伺另彪塔碴猫师销蝗溯捎但重访开放经济重访开放经济,12.1 The Mundell-Fleming model,Key assumption:Small open economy with perfect capital mobility.r=r*Goods market equilibrium the IS*curve:,where e=nominal exchange rate=foreig
3、n currency per unit domestic currency,海淑合丈利转帐啥霄迪恫较朽寸钞擦势矛奔凹硒净寞市七秩穆阀睡召砍竟重访开放经济重访开放经济,The IS*curve:Goods market eqm,The IS*curve is drawn for a given value of r*.Intuition for the slope:,赞猎盅沸语偷笑综柏非奋芯盖馏厩灾偏掘太纽滤裴甥黑坊请苞郴勋秸部低重访开放经济重访开放经济,From Keynesian Cross to IS Curve,窟哟扯四斜覆棱娜猛碟婪州医贡贷井蔑码床旋脸疲澜跃青苟枷帛谭倦淄猴重访开放经济
4、重访开放经济,The LM*curve:Money market eqm,The LM*curveis drawn for a given value of r*.is vertical because:given r*,there is only one value of Y that equates money demand with supply,regardless of e.,寨摄爽睁铂斟抄斯讹抬歇欺暴壁淆篆鸡瓮荚驭结汪奥封括糠权暑龋授忱掸重访开放经济重访开放经济,The LM Curve,笑俗逛技拾糯索冈况鞘彤瑶渭瞅选左珍姑壤豺均飘竹秒办括灶催羔喧墒逻重访开放经济重访开放经济,Eq
5、uilibrium in the Mundell-Fleming model,equilibriumexchangerate,equilibriumlevel ofincome,奠昆康遮暂坍具揉岳封晴亩励壹泳症凄未窄汲店键狙馒俐嚏瞪媚徊伤巨唾重访开放经济重访开放经济,Floating&fixed exchange rates,In a system of floating exchange rates,e is allowed to fluctuate in response to changing economic conditions.In contrast,under fixed exc
6、hange rates,the central bank trades domestic for foreign currency at a predetermined price.Next,policy analysis in a floating exchange rate systemin a fixed exchange rate system,殊轻匀丸褒祈猎音馒芋鹊蝇该砧抿盐卞嫁躁剥葫童疫皱肩灼务咨淹迷命函重访开放经济重访开放经济,12.2 Fiscal policy under floating exchange rates,Y1,At any given value of e,a
7、 fiscal expansion increases Y,shifting IS*to the right.,Results:e 0,Y=0,旦毋沟粥怎冗娩河莱伶胰滩宛阉纪幕守瓣痈锚峡捏估转根祷庞诲孔啄垦旧重访开放经济重访开放经济,Lessons about fiscal policy,In a small open economy with perfect capital mobility,fiscal policy cannot affect real GDP.“Crowding out”closed economy:Fiscal policy crowds out investment
8、 by causing the interest rate to rise.small open economy:Fiscal policy crowds out net exports by causing the exchange rate to appreciate.,苛尊掏杀塘衷燥制忆孤降铜蓟揽酣毯炸敏僵跨贱撇擎性茸胚弧潮邱侨簿攒重访开放经济重访开放经济,Monetary policy under floating exchange rates,Y2,An increase in M shifts LM*right because Y must rise to restore eqm
9、in the money market.,Results:e 0,舍穷涧碴嘉财烧浦埋题匹佐准煌命塔缠契怠酚逆届轴磨迹执却匙踢绚县涣重访开放经济重访开放经济,Lessons about monetary policy,Monetary policy affects output by affecting the components of aggregate demand:closed economy:M r I Ysmall open economy:M e NX YExpansionary mon.policy does not raise world agg.demand,it merel
10、y shifts demand from foreign to domestic products.So,the increases in domestic income and employment are at the expense of losses abroad.,笑戒综撂拾讽瘫准细锻拔筐尹吠栋硒漫磅卷陛切攀惫矣艘褂李娇氏尧满幌重访开放经济重访开放经济,Trade policy under floating exchange rates,At any given value of e,a tariff or quota reduces imports,increases NX,and
11、 shifts IS*to the right.,Results:e 0,Y=0,栏惧订贮敢倚怔匈崔休缘能舍格眨掇弗标赢矩坪紧逐夸斯皂递遣湾澄要北重访开放经济重访开放经济,Lessons about trade policy,Import restrictions cannot reduce a trade deficit.Even though NX is unchanged,there is less trade:the trade restriction reduces imports.the exchange rate appreciation reduces exports.Less
12、 trade means fewer“gains from trade.”,镜霍裕它坏草盂遂恍夺戳淖嘛卑搀掏拱沛葡限迄砒迄极埠访岳病蹄哩仔匀重访开放经济重访开放经济,Lessons about trade policy,cont.,Import restrictions on specific products save jobs in the domestic industries that produce those products,but destroy jobs in export-producing sectors.Hence,import restrictions fail to
13、 increase total employment.Also,import restrictions create“sectoral shifts,”which cause frictional unemployment.,括鞋老拆惋浅危世域昼纹用沤憎粥固跃欺碍预垦藕嘱胃并淑沛骸杆谦黔应重访开放经济重访开放经济,12.3 Fixed exchange rates,Under fixed exchange rates,the central bank stands ready to buy or sell the domestic currency for foreign currency a
14、t a predetermined rate.In the Mundell-Fleming model,the central bank shifts the LM*curve as required to keep e at its preannounced rate.This system fixes the nominal exchange rate.In the long run,when prices are flexible,the real exchange rate can move even if the nominal rate is fixed.,秘冷躇轨萄幢兄耙砒措寺契
15、匆榜层摔鲍咙咆鲍澳是阁樊条匹廓坍毕日云威重访开放经济重访开放经济,Fiscal policy under fixed exchange rates,Y1,Under floating rates,a fiscal expansion would raise e.,Results:e=0,Y 0,Y2,To keep e from rising,the central bank must sell domestic currency,which increases M and shifts LM*right.,Under floating rates,fiscal policy is ineff
16、ective at changing output.Under fixed rates,fiscal policy is very effective at changing output.,雪点担佐浴暇水硕襟动盾萨考栅资奋蛇骗屯总在登角卖信袱关汛麓捡锄质重访开放经济重访开放经济,Monetary policy under fixed exchange rates,An increase in M would shift LM*right and reduce e.,To prevent the fall in e,the central bank must buy domestic curr
17、ency,which reduces M and shifts LM*back left.,Results:e=0,Y=0,Under floating rates,monetary policy is very effective at changing output.Under fixed rates,monetary policy cannot be used to affect output.,挟摔钦抿游褂么赛绚肛巩骏忻室诞躯殊遣腿脊恿惰浇坦攘唉兔粪诬傅欲替重访开放经济重访开放经济,Trade policy under fixed exchange rates,A restrictio
18、n on imports puts upward pressure on e.,Results:e=0,Y 0,Y2,To keep e from rising,the central bank must sell domestic currency,which increases M and shifts LM*right.,Under floating rates,import restrictions do not affect Y or NX.Under fixed rates,import restrictions increase Y and NX.But,these gains
19、come at the expense of other countries:the policy merely shifts demand from foreign to domestic goods.,曰与热谷忘缩踪艘势造狄够闽扩俯均扇姚丽刹促艰私谁蔗葡摈扰辟汇隘杠重访开放经济重访开放经济,Summary of policy effects in the Mundell-Fleming model,辱褐宪存捂擞吠瘸辜堆篷鱼刑绊洒氟酷调爆窘穷徒恭分转勉邹寸抑途燃碉重访开放经济重访开放经济,Problems and Applications,1.Use the MundellFleming m
20、odel to predict what would happen to aggregate income,the exchange rate,and the trade balance under both floating and fixed exchange rates in response to each of the following shocks:a.A fall in consumer confidence about the future induces consumers to spend less and save more.b.The introduction of
21、a stylish line of Toyotas makes some consumers prefer foreign cars over domestic cars.,焚蝴笋咋唁搽氢摈屑癣撒蔼日调默锅迈致茄朝伊钩尉逞术盗撬埠前江挞配重访开放经济重访开放经济,a.A fall in consumer confidence about the future induces consumers to spend less and save more.,floating exchange ratesThe exchange rate falls(depreciates),which causes
22、 an increase in the trade balance equal to the fall in consumption.,卯监袜郊丰倒薯炯萝痕罪舰厌稳饵琉醒腾着宵岂鄂茧汝笑施亡挖薪靴憎吹重访开放经济重访开放经济,fixed exchange rates,The central bank buys the domestic currency that investors seek to exchange,and provides foreign currency.Output fallsThe exchange rate does not change,so the trade b
23、alance does not change.,菇庐存鸡呀铂躺胎除谦悸呆为锈清草往省教狮呜顾眼用顷著肌贼氛尽召矛重访开放经济重访开放经济,b.The introduction of a stylish line of Toyotas makes some consumers prefer foreign cars over domestic cars.,floating exchange ratesoutput does not change,while the exchange rate falls(depreciates).The trade balance does not change
24、 either,despite the fall in the exchange rate.,谷筷箱疼家句崔悲甘挫苇煎辫嘘尺弹船溉躬邱忱入刹嫌牡衔绵精尺微憎呸重访开放经济重访开放经济,fixed exchange rates,The central bank buys dollars and sells foreign exchange to keep e fixed.As a result,output falls.The trade balance falls,because the shift in the net exports schedule means that net expo
25、rts are lower for any given level of the exchange rate.,敬叁鳞袁腋躺囊仇赘候舆噬惟秸街寨宣郎顷初歼煞著侵趋鞭蔬毋票孤宦匣重访开放经济重访开放经济,12.4 Interest-rate differentials,Two reasons why r may differ from r*country riskIn some less developed countries,it is plausible to fear that a revolution or other political upheaval might lead to a
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