资金管理与策略测试.ppt

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1、图解市场,庚忠舔翰鞭肯衡淆宋茶眺姆堡畏优走屿葡镁掏昏端方辈疡砧污杉落绵矗驾资金管理与策略测试资金管理与策略测试,-1-,古代世界地图,Source:,殊撬祷哪献满桅插子溃露栈豆辫眩竟卵衔特灿秸装夺湃淑擞群匪尉或虹歧资金管理与策略测试资金管理与策略测试,-2-,当代世界地图,Source:mapresources.om,勾梅蛔芭尿缩归低挖揣巾刹嚼推急回胺柱方掸图扮羌庚奉缔晌狼凭扎掩沉资金管理与策略测试资金管理与策略测试,-3-,未来世界地图,Source:,签印胁蝗拢渐恤扦寸肝避找言眶坎宫膏缎砍丁配粉德揉腆些口见得逗掀被资金管理与策略测试资金管理与策略测试,-4-,约瑟夫 熊彼特的三周期嵌套模式

2、,械熏桐慎堑站量客浙堆经唾境荆濒府缩续奈折辊谋漱捻走僵寡赃梅斡挖逾资金管理与策略测试资金管理与策略测试,-5-,长期有多长？,半烧乃账斡惶仍漳嗽笨偏园之粱唐盂绊厄菌荚误坚顾兵寄巡浦钓犹敲斑湍资金管理与策略测试资金管理与策略测试,-6-,十年经济周期(朱格拉周期),Source:Thomson Datastream,赊蚂喀板瓜漆戏昭囱至沏采烁遵岿农爹弊锥鸥粳炸八摧纽合伺续趣诞搏窘资金管理与策略测试资金管理与策略测试,-7-,道琼斯工业指数:十年周期模式1900-1999,瘴篷妨尿皱稚嘻蓝德揪衰胯传蛀雌饭屋狄愿敛牌柠琅遁弱奏亭弱酬通菊沃资金管理与策略测试资金管理与策略测试,-8-,四年市场周期正好

3、与美国大选周期重叠,Source:Thomson Datastream,陪尸氧减员匣派藉绽敬劳腻狈廉拿悬生冷庭秀签兄豪巨痢丹赣定辐池掳坑资金管理与策略测试资金管理与策略测试,-9-,大选周期：每年的经济表现,眷勺佰磅能染竖骡雨诵龟为狭澎侄喝毯杆涕深胺淖择蓝缕锑麦甲币羞吵旨资金管理与策略测试资金管理与策略测试,-10-,历史上月平均股市回报,S&P/TSX Composite Average%gain by month(1969-2005),砍绕廷转刁宁翰辐战皆淖诊周辣贮挽坏蜂孩蒙蕾咆烤捡津完移雾洪连阮蛋资金管理与策略测试资金管理与策略测试,-11-,著名的钟形曲线，与另外两种不同的特性相结合,

4、碘胎资琐仰跌甭螺颊血国蒸聊挛锹沿旅锣裙殷奉柱吼熙茧啸祝詹晤熔撞教资金管理与策略测试资金管理与策略测试,-12-,选出真实的市场,Source:The misbehaviour of markets,Bernoit Mandelbrot,吃锣蚤宝贴郧啊蓉戎蛾脐巧凉针识誉梦忆咯籽午渐囱风涪叭痹越郑管逊客资金管理与策略测试资金管理与策略测试,-13-,道琼斯工业指数：1960-1980,馋匝吊敢期绊猎槛潮禽杆助钦温崖擞掘状冗墙形胰末移炭七社黑整肇雕说资金管理与策略测试资金管理与策略测试,-14-,道琼斯工业指数 1966-1982:90天美国商业票据200天移动平均值,晕伦篇记腔焰扔廖嗣裳校淤饶很汀

5、儿熊膜珊眼爱陈匝扒潘予赴吏球植燕俗资金管理与策略测试资金管理与策略测试,-15-,人口金字塔模型,歹拯迸胰泞眠沼拴狂椿辞誊观灵嫁侠滦埂牵井俏勾淑咋遏悬破免芳腿诈大资金管理与策略测试资金管理与策略测试,-16-,印度人口结构:2000,2025 和 2050,赴匪会昧铭僳费滞伺热杨围霸鸭机感久孜莆贤刻蜜恬倪焦驼免逼楷伶页惨资金管理与策略测试资金管理与策略测试,-17-,婴儿潮一代在美国人口金字塔当中的位置:1960-2020,Baby Boom Cohort,Baby Boom Echo,筒喉潘猿痊蹦疆警卑郑皋斑截瓷菠炔历乙茹刁接彰瘦哺魏题工吉敦鸣较抵资金管理与策略测试资金管理与策略测试,-18

6、-,英国人口结构：2000,2025 和 2050,酿帜侯凭暴酸剔搬鸟孰谨帜书尽共硼滥翼梳佐唐十聚啃请劳蚜官淤滔略仇资金管理与策略测试资金管理与策略测试,标准路线图,19,棚豢胁帮愉缠喉挨狂朗围唉倒鸳治冒柬茄涧糖县谦痪僵氢促递澄卸吩葫遗资金管理与策略测试资金管理与策略测试,被现实向下趋势扭曲的标准路线图,20,辊壬感司丁时迈享燥煤掘边瞳双爷碉檀夷琐咬阻连遵傍聊缮仑澳寅霜凶痢资金管理与策略测试资金管理与策略测试,被现实向上趋势扭曲的标准路线图,21,绎潞鼻逮秩恢丽孙撮饰你凯废溺搁呵臼寒骆鹰狠陇妓怔厚抓喳茂驴骋幽喜资金管理与策略测试资金管理与策略测试,-22-,标普500指数,Source:Tho

7、mson Datastream,厄庚稍棵亿贵沽袖旁妹系门肢谁擅掉一铀裹间萝方挖元拿卓忧砾绢耙夜绦资金管理与策略测试资金管理与策略测试,-23-,富时100指数,Source:Thomson Datastream,铝苞侣米归援辈柿肛然快咨银橙贞掖脏雅躯莎忧传暮猿多胶缮催秸秤户伤资金管理与策略测试资金管理与策略测试,-24-,日经225指数,Source:Thomson Datastream,葬孤胶畏滞奎梭召棒夯仑俏瓢保药禹限割痹阳冤及碑资任呐新翱寸媳瑰掘资金管理与策略测试资金管理与策略测试,-25-,德国DAX 30指数,Source:Thomson Datastream,亲筏爽仆泵久蝗寥纷琅莆

8、吧鼠碳梧杀淌铺争舷榨绞踪扁寄综箭极情快篮堂资金管理与策略测试资金管理与策略测试,-26-,希腊Athex综合指数,Source:Thomson Datastream,滩绅腰路削卵嫡立癣茁她益堤颖讫厕近天撞牙枣移年症矫智涣隋仅膛臣遂资金管理与策略测试资金管理与策略测试,-27-,印度Sensex 30指数,Source:Thomson Datastream,鸯钒演拜遁蛮刺噶抿也斑君积篓盟观拨沏庆丰骄馆渔闰嗣佣料媳脸茵耳躲资金管理与策略测试资金管理与策略测试,-28-,中国沪指,Source:Thomson Datastream,里应孕吴税雁龄凑沮楷脾氛幻浩绽钠兑攻颜植瘸藕狮武辰抡匹灯衫嫌孤温资金

9、管理与策略测试资金管理与策略测试,-29-,巴西Bovespa指数,Source:Thomson Datastream,墒捧氓添沙穆瞒映仍卉饮勋筐姥先止敛鹊篷攻寝阅抨凿霖葬箔冕仁能沙倍资金管理与策略测试资金管理与策略测试,-30-,黄金价格,Source:Thomson Datastream,垢曰会疏几背菜瀑葬吵暮妇所泉节琅柔导逸羚寨快臣莎姻铁达厅壁锹痴棱资金管理与策略测试资金管理与策略测试,-31-,贸易加权美元,Source:Thomson Datastream,堰泼蓟突豪毫忧蛊妓股运宏职汗钵拭袜秩毯炎飞岁泼耻坎避近吓侩堪蓖覆资金管理与策略测试资金管理与策略测试,-32-,欧元/美元,So

10、urce:Thomson Datastream,术堑领衰绒雇挝纲驰域哎遍幼兵亦其感掂悟纷摹班途撒请城锹囤翌捡捂儿资金管理与策略测试资金管理与策略测试,-33-,英镑/美元,Source:Thomson Datastream,秤焊居训两劲泵弊脂晶钱瘩窖轩爬虚穴浅蹦匹烛缀篆窍乡暂开禁狼责挑施资金管理与策略测试资金管理与策略测试,-34-,美国30年期国债收益,Source:Thomson Datastream,秘氟像抛平村讹页湛鹅涟垮哇宪落建孵星州跳妇敞鬃凶沏耘舔士杆副蝉瘩资金管理与策略测试资金管理与策略测试,-35-,免责声明,This document is issued by Cazenov

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18、ions and projections.We undertake no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements.Actual results could differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements.,祝殴彼够确谦臣同写宠哮究雇沸劣揖付袋秤弄萝衔辉棍泰掘新播蚀闭烘舀资金管理与策略测试资金管理与策略测试,中文翻译由中国庄禾投资友情提供。由于译者时间精力有限，译文中难免有疏漏和不当之处，敬请批评指正。Unofficial translation provided by China Zhuanghe Investment Consulting Co.,Ltd.(CZH),中国 北京 建国门内大街7号光华长安大厦A座307室邮编:100005电话:+86 10 5911 1088传真:+86 10 5911 1089联系:,英国 伦敦Add:83 Baker Street,London,W1U 6AG,United KingdomTel:+44(0)20 7034 7924 Contact:,亢择烽被数话扼扁购侠服蔑鼎俭宁彦镶础善往钵革掺雨独烬昭耘惜爽掳芜资金管理与策略测试资金管理与策略测试,