[经济学]【视频】经济学：金融市场 18 短期资本经营者Professional Money Managers.doc

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1、Professional Money Managers and Their InfluenceFinancial MarketsLecture 18 - Professional Money Managers and Their Influence Overview:Most people are not very good at dealing in financial markets. Professional money managers, such as financial advisors and financial planners, assist individuals in m

2、atters of personal finance. FINRA and the SEC monitor the activities of these managers in order to protect individual investors. Mutual funds, exchange traded funds also exist to assist individual investments, and pension funds provide further services. These investment institutions help people to p

3、ut money in diversified portfolios and, in some cases, reap some tax benefits for funding their retirement income.Reading assignment:Fabozzi et al. Foundations of Financial Markets and Institutions, chapter 9William M. OBarr and John M. Conley, Fortune & Folly: The Wealth & Power of Institutional In

4、vesting, chapter 10, pp. 225-236David Swensen, Pioneering Portfolio Management, chapter 2Financial Markets: Lecture 18 TranscriptProfessor Robert Shiller: The fundamental point that I want to make today is that while economic theory describes people as managing their-maximizing their-own utility and

5、 subject to constraints, most people have a lot of trouble doing that, particularly as regards to investing in financial markets. Most people are confused and find it just very difficult, so we have an industry of people who help people with their investments and we, moreover, have a whole array of

6、regulations regulating the industry of people who help others with their investments. The problem is that most people are not that good at dealing in financial markets. Theyre mysterious, theyre difficult, and, moreover, theres a tendency of psychological biases that cause people to get into mistake

7、s. We talked about overconfidence-that most people think theyre smarter than others-and it seems like people can easily get overconfident about their ability to beat the market.What naturally happens, if not regulated, is that there will be others who will victimize and exploit these people. The cla

8、ssic story is some kind of stockbroker who promises to make great wealth for you by trading your portfolio and, in fact, doesnt really know anything; the guy is just a showman who is just pretending. There was a 1940s book called, Where Are The Customers Yachts?, which was a best-selling book. The t

9、itle refers to the fact that stockbrokers give the impression that I deal with a very wealthy successful crowd of people and you are now one of the chosen people that Im managing for. Some stockbrokers will pretend to be very wealthy-create the appearance of that-like theyre associated with the rich

10、 people and it draws people in. But in fact, the customers often dont do very well because the stockbroker may churn their portfolio, keep coming up with new trades, and the broker is making money from commissions. Thats the kind of problem that arises. As a result, a lot of people recognize the imp

11、ortance of giving help to people, so thats what were talking about.I want to talk mostly about portfolio managers, but Ill first talk about financial advisors and also financial planners and then Ill move to fiduciaries or institutional investors. We do not live in a world where people freely do bus

12、iness as they would like. The financial world is especially heavily-regulated. The first thing is financial advisor; again, most people dont know about these markets and they need someone to give them advice, so people set themselves up as financial advisors. In most countries, these are heavily reg

13、ulated by the government. In the United States-Now, what is a financial advisor? I should define that for you. Its someone who gives advice about investments for some kind of fee or commission. It excludes lawyers, bankers, insurance salesmen, reporters from newspapers, professors. Even though these

14、 people may all give financial advice, its not considered as part of law to be central to what they do, so they are excluded from the definition of financial advisor. It also excludes broker-dealers. If someone presents himself or herself just as a broker-thats someone you can call up and say, I wan

15、t to buy a hundred shares of GM or whatever and the person does the deal-does the trade for you. That is also not a financial advisor, even if that person occasionally dispenses advice. Its only incidental to the business.Financial advisors includes people who present themselves as offering advice t

16、o individuals and also includes analysts. These are regulated and theres something called the National Securities Markets Improvement Act of 1996 that says that all financial advisors with less then twenty-five million under management must register with their state regulator and if its greater than

17、 thirty million, they must register with the SEC in Washington-Securities and Exchange Commission. If its between, they can choose either one. Theyre all regulated and the government wants to be sure that financial advisors are-know what good practice is and so that means they have to take an exam.

18、The exam is administered by whats called FINRA, that is Financial Institutions Regulatory Authority-formerly called NASD. See how this is getting complicated?NASD is National Association of Securities Dealers and they started the NASDAQ stock market index, which you hear about all the time. NASDAQ i

19、s NASD Automated Quotation System. NASD merged with the New York Stock Exchange Regulatory Authority last year, so theyve been renamed as FINRA. These are all these institutional details that I want you to know because it-its boring, maybe, but I think its whats true; its whats happening; this is wh

20、at drives so much that happens. FINRA says that if you want to become a financial advisor, you have to pass a Series-they call it Series 65 or 66 exam and then you are eligible, according to FINRA. FINRA is an example of an SRO, a self-regulatory organization. The government in the United States doe

21、snt want to be making all the rules, so they allow industry groups to form their own self-policing organizations.So, FINRA is the organization for financial advisors and that is an SRO and the SEC accepts their licensing. Thats what you have to do to become a financial advisor. You have to take thes

22、e exams, join FINRA, then you go to the SEC, and then you register as a financial advisor. The exams would warn you about all kinds of bad practices that-for example, about churning a portfolio. I just mentioned that, but Ill repeat it; thats when you call the guy up everyday and you say, I just got

23、 a hot new idea for you. Of course, yesterday you bought Microsoft-sell that, move to this. They just keep calling you up and thats-its a way to get de-licensed if you are caught doing that because it cant work. If you trade everyday theres no-its virtually impossible to make money because the commi

24、ssions will eat you alive. You know these guys who are churning are fakes because they cant be getting a new idea everyday, so thats the kind of thing.Now, financial planners are a little different. The designation of financial planner is not regulated directly, but we do have a self-regulatory asso

25、ciation that manages them. We have the Financial Planning Association-thats their website, FPA.org-and they license-they provide their own designation. This is how it works in the U.S., particularly; they will certify someone as a certified financial planner and FPA will require that every financial

26、 planner first become a financial advisor. So, thats-this is a big organization. Incidentally, if anyone ever asks you, I need investment advice, where do I get it? It might be a good idea to direct them to that website because theyll help you get a financial planner, which is more than a broker; th

27、eyre supposed to actually be planning for your life. Thats the essential economic problem that we face.Stockbrokers will often-this comes back to what Henry Paulson said in his proposal for reorganization of our financial markets. He thought-and I think this may reflect some essential wisdom-that we

28、 should have objectives-based regulation. Each organization should be focused on an objective. I think the objective of the organization affects what you do. If you are a stockbroker and if you present yourself as someone who will buy and sell stocks for you, youre probably not going to get into fin

29、ancial planning with your clients. If its on your title, if you write this after your name-John Doe, CFP-then it says planner in your title. I think that affects what you do and it tells-what financial planners do is they say, lets sit down and think about your life goals. Do you expect to have chil

30、dren? Are you going to send them to college? This kind of thought, which is very important.Theres another one called-this is for financial advisors, NAPFA.org, National Association of Personal Financial Advisors. If someone asks you, where should I go for advice? This is another good website to go t

31、o because-what I like about NAPFA.org is that they have all of their advisors sign a statement that they will be fee-only advisors and they will never steer someone toward an investment that provides a kickback to them. Thats a problem-that often a financial advisor will be really trying to make mon

32、ey selling you things that provide money; theyre not unbiased. But NAPFA-its part of their code of ethics that theyre completely separate from any organization. Theyre pure financial advisors and they dont make money from commissions; its only from the hourly fee.What else? So, thats basically what

33、I was going to say about financial advisors; its a big industry and its important. Actually, in my new book-I have no-I should say, I have no connection to this industry whatsoever, but I actually was saying that I think as a national policy we should subsidize this industry. I think people need mor

34、e financial advice. Most people are just not with it enough; theyre not getting the basic wisdom that-I think if we need more of this, we should subsidize it. I was just in Mexico over the weekend and I had the opportunity to meet the President of Mexico, which was exciting, and I also heard him say

35、 that he thinks Mexico needs more development of financial culture. This seems to be a thing that not enough Mexicans are really used to dealing with-sophisticated financial institutions-and so thats where we have to go with Mexico. I was saying, well its just the same in every country; I think ther

36、es a problem.The other thing-I wont say more about financial advisors, but lets move now to the other way that happens is that people will turn over their-actually, I want to come back to trusts later. Let me-the other-the really big industry that manages peoples financial problems for them are inst

37、itutional investors. These are groups that-organizations-that pool money from many people and invest a portfolio for them. I want to start by emphasizing how important they are. I want to just present you with the balance sheet for households and non-profits and just get some idea of how important i

38、nstitutional investors are. Theyre more important than these financial advisors because most of peoples wealth is really managed by institutions. You dont have to ask any questions they just-you dont have to do anything; its all done for you.I wanted to show the balance sheet of households and non-p

39、rofits and thats table B100 of the Flow of Funds Account; this is for the United States, but I think it would be similar in other countries. We have assets on one side and we have liabilities on the other, so well have assets and then well have liabilities. You might wonder, why do we put households

40、 and non-profits together? Its really because there are three types of persons that own things. There are individuals or natural persons; there are non-profit organizations, which are like individuals because nobody owns them-they own themselves. Theyre like people in contrast to corporations that a

41、re owned by individuals. Then, we also have the government, is the third. This is the non-government balance sheet, so its just about everything in this country.I just wanted to review-this is from the Federal Reserve and these are estimates, of course, and subject to error; this is for 2007, fourth

42、 quarter, which is the latest data. Assets are things that people own and liabilities are things that people owe and your net worth is your assets minus your liabilities. Lets start with assets. The biggest asset that people own in the United States-that households own is-and non-profits-this is alm

43、ost entirely households though; non-profits are small compared to households. Real estate is the biggest thing and that is 22,438 billion dollars or 22 trillion dollars; people own this directly-its their house. The second most-the second biggest thing is pension funds and that is 12 billion-I mean

44、its 12 trillion dollars-12,779 billion; that comes right after real estate. Then we have equity in non-corporate business and that is 7,389-sorry, its 7,892-its almost 8 billion.What is non-corporate business? Its businesses run by individuals, so its like the low-if a family runs a little grocery s

45、tore, then their ownership of that is represented here as non-corporate business. Or, if youre a barber and youve got your little barbershop. It all adds up; they valued all of these businesses and they valued them up totally as worth 8 trillion dollars. Then we have corporate equities-thats stock-a

46、nd that is 5,447 billion or about 5 trillion dollars. Thats stocks owned directly by households. Then we have mutual funds. Mutual funds are institutional investors that invest in stocks or bonds, but usually its mostly stocks-5.082 trillion. Its almost as big as corporate equities held directly. Th

47、en theres consumer durables-that means your car, your furniture; thats 4,035 billion. Bonds-2,730 billion-not so much, not as big.Insurance-I have everything ranked by size, so were going down the scale. Insurance is-this is life insurance-1,205. Then-Im running out of room at the bottom-there are s

48、ome other minor categories, but the total is-I would normally put it at the bottom, but I am running out of room at the bottom. The total assets total is 72,093 billion, so its 72 trillion dollars.Liabilities of households are mortgages-home mortgages-and thats 10,509. Consumer credit-credit cards-i

49、nstallment credit of various types-2,551. Loans and other-1,315 billion. The total liabilities is 14,315 billion. So, people own 72 trillion; they owe 14 trillion; the difference is net worth-57,718 billion. So, thats about $192,000 per person in the United States. Its unequally held; this is just consolidating everybody. Its u