电大金融理论前沿课题网上第十次作业.doc

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1、菲利普斯曲线在我国现阶段的应用前景”1、说明什么是菲利普斯曲线，最好引用经典的经济专家学者的有关论述；答：菲利普斯曲线是一种表明失业与通货膨胀存在一种交替关系的曲线，通货膨胀率高时，失业率低；通货膨胀率低时，失业率高。由新西兰经济学家W菲利普斯于1958年在18611957年英国失业和货币工资变动率之间的关系一文中最先提出。2、简要说明菲利普斯曲线的发展演变过程，以进一步加深对相关理论的论述；答：第一种形态我们称之为原始的菲利普斯曲线。1958年，英国经济学家菲利普斯（A. W. Phillips）利用英国1861-1957年近百年的历史资料，经验地推断在货币工资变动与失业之间存在着一种稳定的

2、负值关系，并利用图形表示了出来。1960年，美国著名经济学家萨缪尔森和索洛在菲利普斯研究成果的基础上，使用通货膨胀率代替工资变动率来描述通胀率与失业率之间存在彼消此长的相互关系，并证明美国也存在类似的菲利普斯曲线。第二种形态是扩展的菲利普斯曲线。1967年和1968年费尔普斯）和弗里德曼相继提出在存在通货膨胀预期的作用下，短期菲利普斯曲线是不稳定的，会由于宏观政策的作用会发生移动。但长期而言，由于存在“自然失业率”，菲利普斯曲线是垂直的。 第三种形态表现为奥肯定律。美国经济学家奥肯根据统计资料估算，由于降低失业率而带来的实际GDP的增加数额，结果产生了著名的奥肯定律。按照奥肯定律，国内生产总值

3、（GDP）增长比潜在GDP增长每快2，失业率下降1个百分点。奥肯又将通货膨胀率与失业率的替换关系演变成了GDP与失业率的替换关系。3、结合实际进行阐述，试分析我国存在菲利普斯曲线吗？并说明菲利普斯曲线在货币政策中的应用；我国同样存在菲利普斯曲线，其在货币政策中的应用有：（1）通货膨胀与失业两者之间短期内的替代关系取决于公众对通货膨胀的预期。当偏离公众预期时，货币政策对实体经济的影响最大。但是，如果中央银行为了系统地增加实际产出而不断地试图偏离公众预期，则公众预期一定会随之改变。因此公众预期与中央银行以往的业绩密切相关。（2）中央银行的信誉度有助于以较低成本恢复到理想水平。如果公众不确定什么规则

4、能够最恰当地描述中央银行的行为，则他们会尽力从观察到的中央银行实际行为进行学习。对中央银行政策的不确定性，或对其低通货膨胀承诺的怀疑，会增加去通货膨胀的成本。也就是说，通货膨胀与失业之间短期的关系取决于公众对货币政策和通货膨胀的长期预期。（3）中央银行在实施货币政策时应当明确目标，必须避免货币政策本身成为一种冲击。另外应当在立法层次上强调价格稳定的重要性，以及在货币政策决策时采取透明的方式。这些都有助于中央银行“信誉”的建立，也会有助于在制度层面上稳定私人部门的预期。四、在明确目标明的基础上，中央银行还应当综合分析各种因素。由于通货膨胀是各种复杂因素相互作用的结果，因此不能仅仅依靠单一经济变量

5、的对应关系来进行决。4、试对菲利普斯在我国货币政策中的应用提出建议。（1）我国存在菲利普斯曲线体现的通胀率与失业率的替代关系。根据上面的分析可以看到，在我国宏观经济政策调整幅度较小、经济环境较为稳定的时期，存在着较为明显的菲利普斯曲线关系。模型检验的结果亦是如此。在经济波动较小的年份，曲线的拟合度较好，通货膨胀率与失业率之间的替代关系较为明显。分段拟合的曲线模型显示，后一周期的曲线斜率高于前一周期，相同的失业率水平下需要保持高于上一周期的通货膨胀率与之相应，即欲创造更多的就业机会需要付出较前几轮更高通货膨胀率的代价。这是新经济的转变带给我们的经济和社会难题，也使得我国本来就非常严峻的就业压力更

6、加紧张。（2）短期的菲利普斯曲线失灵具有时代特殊性市场机制不完善，国家干预较强改革开放之初，国家政策因素对曲线的走向干扰较强，因此1979-1980年我国菲利普斯曲线的走向了发生较大程度的变形。转型时期产业结构的大幅调整我国从上世纪80年代大力发展高投入、低产出、高损耗、低效率的粗放型产业到90年代末向集约型产业转变，逐步实现产业的全面升级，并且加大了对绿色环保、能源节约等产业发展可持续性的关注程度，控制了高消耗低产出产业的发展。（3）我国菲利普斯曲线短期与长期走势相辅相成、相互影响 政策建议（1）保持适度经济增长以缓解严重的就业压力 1997年以来，我国通货膨胀水平一直处在5%的警戒线之下，

7、甚至出现了通货紧缩的现象，虽然近年又有上升趋向，始终没有大的波动出现。这主要是与我国宏观调控手段的多样化和日渐成熟的政策搭配相关的。 1991年以来我国失业率一直处于上升之中。隐性失业排放的继续、农民工进城规模的扩大等必然造成更大的就业压力。因此我们认为现阶段应该保持适度的通货膨胀率和稳定高速的经济增长，以创造更多的就业机会。（2）大力发展集约型劳动密集产业 大力发展集约型劳动密集产业，以降低菲利普斯曲线在新一轮的斜率。根据我们所建立的我国菲利普斯曲线的走向模型可以看出，我国菲利普斯曲线走向的斜率是大于前一周期的，这代表着欲降低相同水平的失业率，后一周期必须付出高于上一周期的通胀率与之对应。因

8、此，国家政策的调整应该考虑如何降低下一轮曲线的斜率，以使得相同通胀率的同时带来更多的失业率下降。我们认为，应该在大力发展现代化产业的同时，鼓励和扶持集约型劳动密集产业，这样，在获得产业结构升级的同时，可以创造更多的就业机会。（3）继续进行有效的财政和货币政策干预 从我国19982002年刺激经济方案和2009年经济启动方案来看，短期和长期菲利普斯曲线中失业与通货膨胀确实存在替代关系，证明我国政策干预是有效的。菲利普斯曲线在我国现阶段的应用前景。If we dont do that it will go on and go on. We have to stop it; we need the

9、courage to do it.His comments came hours after Fifa vice-president Jeffrey Webb - also in London for the FAs celebrations - said he wanted to meet Ivory Coast international Toure to discuss his complaint.CSKA general director Roman Babaev says the matter has been exaggerated by the Ivorian and the B

10、ritish media.Blatter, 77, said: It has been decided by the Fifa congress that it is a nonsense for racism to be dealt with with fines. You can always find money from somebody to pay them.It is a nonsense to have matches played without spectators because it is against the spirit of football and again

11、st the visiting team. It is all nonsense.We can do something better to fight racism and discrimination.This is one of the villains we have today in our game. But it is only with harsh sanctions that racism and discrimination can be washed out of football.The (lack of) air up there 待添加的隐藏文字内容3Watch m

12、Cayman Islands-based Webb, the head of Fifas anti-racism taskforce, is in London for the Football Associations 150th anniversary celebrations and will attend Citys Premier League match at Chelsea on Sunday.I am going to be at the match tomorrow and I have asked to meet Yaya Toure, he told BBC Sport.

13、For me its about how he felt and I would like to speak to him first to find out what his experience was.Uefa hasopened disciplinary proceedings against CSKAfor the racist behaviour of their fans duringCitys 2-1 win.Michel Platini, president of European footballs governing body, has also ordered an i

14、mmediate investigation into the referees actions.CSKA said they were surprised and disappointed by Toures complaint. In a statement the Russian side added: We found no racist insults from fans of CSKA.Baumgartner the disappointing news: Mission aborted.The supersonic descent could happen as early as

15、 Sunda.The weather plays an important role in this mission. Starting at the ground, conditions have to be very calm - winds less than 2 mph, with no precipitation or humidity and limited cloud cover. The balloon, with capsule attached, will move through the lower level of the atmosphere (the troposp

16、here) where our day-to-day weather lives. It will climb higher than the tip of Mount Everest (5.5 miles/8.85 kilometers), drifting even higher than the cruising altitude of commercial airliners (5.6 miles/9.17 kilometers) and into the stratosphere. As he crosses the boundary layer (called the tropop

17、ause),e can expect a lot of turbulence.The balloon will slowly drift to the edge of space at 120,000 feet ( Then, I would assume, he will slowly step out onto something resembling an Olympic diving platform.Below, the Earth becomes the concrete bottom of a swimming pool that he wants to land on, but

18、 not too hard. Still, hell be traveling fast, so despite the distance, it will not be like diving into the deep end of a pool. It will be like he is diving into the shallow end.Skydiver preps for the big jumpWhen he jumps, he is expected to reach the speed of sound - 690 mph (1,110 kph) - in less th

19、an 40 seconds. Like hitting the top of the water, he will begin to slow as he approaches the more dense air closer to Earth. But this will not be enough to stop him completely.If he goes too fast or spins out of control, he has a stabilization parachute that can be deployed to slow him down. His tea

20、m hopes its not needed. Instead, he plans to deploy his 270-square-foot (25-square-meter) main chute at an altitude of around 5,000 feet (1,524 meters).In order to deploy this chute successfully, he will have to slow to 172 mph (277 kph). He will have a reserve parachute that will open automatically if he loses consciousness at mach speeds.Even if everything goes as planned, it wont. Baumgartner still will free fall at a speed that would cause you and me to pass out, and no parachute is guaranteed to work higher than 25,000 feet (7,620 meters).cause there