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1、英文原文：How Real Is Chinas Real Estate Bubble AndWhatShouldBeDoneaboutItThink U.S. housing prices have gone berserk? Try those in Shanghai and Beijing, where the cost of homes has been rising an estimated 25% annually in recent years. Thats twice the jump in the median sale price of existing U.S. homes

2、 over the past year, and a sign that Chinas real estate market is in the midst of what some observers view as a potentially explosive bubble.The bubble is rooted in such factors as Chinas strong economic growth since 1990 and investor bets that Chinas currency, the yuan, will be revalued upward in t

3、he near future. But such speculation is helping push the price of homes beyond the reach of middle class citizens in key Chinese cities and raising the prospect of a sudden market collapse that could threaten the countrys shaky banking sector and wipe out the life savings of many families.Some see t

4、he increasing involvement of U.S. investors in China - including the recent move by Bank of America to buy a 9% stake in China Construction Bank - as a hopeful development when it comes to calming the countrys real estate scene. And given the prospect of social unrest stemming from either continued

5、price hikes or a too-fast price decline, the Chinese government has taken action to cool down the market.But Beijings efforts so far may not be enough to rein in the rising real estate prices, says Wharton marketing professor John Zhang. He warns that the government must be careful in whatever moves

6、 it makes next. “Managing the process of bursting the bubble is really something delicate,” he says.Inconsistent DataChinas real estate market is relatively new. After years of property being under the strict control of the communist government, China phased out free government-provided houses in th

7、e early 1990s. But even now, there is a legacy of the communist system. The state technically owns the countrys land: Individuals essentially buy rights to build on top of the land or own structures already there.As with other measures of the Chinese economy, its hard to get a precise gauge on how h

8、ousing prices have been changing in the country. Last year, the countrys average housing price rose by 14.4%, according to a story in June by official Chinese news agency Xinhua citing the countrys National Bureau of Statistics. The story also said that Beijings housing price level had been dropping

9、. But an official with the statistics bureau acknowledged in the story that the numbers “do not fully represent the general real estate situation” and that some government figures are inconsistent.Given the lack of solid data, it may be premature to define Chinas housing market as a bubble, notes Wh

10、arton real estate professor Grace Wong. Wong, who has written about a rapid run-up in Hong Kong housing prices in the late 1990s, says a bubble is typically defined as prices at levels higher than what economic basics justify. Speculation - when buyers are purchasing homes primarily because they exp

11、ect the price will increase - can cause a bubble, but price hikes also can arise because of factors such as construction cost increases or an undersupply of homes. “You wouldnt be so worried if the housing prices are moving up because of fundamentals like that,” she notes.Usha Haley, professor of in

12、ternational business at the University of New Havens School of Business, also suggests that talk about a nationwide bubble can overstate the case. She estimates that housing prices for China overall have been rising 10% annually in recent years. That level makes the countrys real estate price growth

13、 slower than in many other countries around the world, including the United States. But Haley, who recently wrote a book about business in China titled, The Chinese Tao of Business, says the major cities of Shanghai and Beijing are special cases, with annual real estate appreciation rates closer to

14、25-26% in the past few years, or roughly $784 per square meter in Shanghai. The prices in Beijing are lower, but not by much. Even these prices dont tell the whole story. One source familiar with the Shanghai housing market says unfinished condominium “shells” in new Shanghai high-rise buildings are

15、 being marketed at a price of about $2,000 per square meter.Among the causes of the run-up in Chinese home prices, Haley notes, is government corruption. Local officials can engage in price gouging to enrich themselves individually or conspire to drive up prices on property sales that pad government

16、 coffers. Another factor is Chinas overall economic expansion. Chinas economy grew at an average rate of 10% per year during the period between 1990 and 2004, the highest growth rate in the world, according to the U.S. state department. Chinas total trade in 2004 surpassed $1.1 trillion, making it t

17、he worlds third-largest trading nation after the U.S. and Germany.With China becoming more of a hub in the global economy, it stands to reason there would be greater demand for housing designed for foreign corporate executives and other ex-patriots. This increase in demand has led to higher housing

18、prices, as noted by Kenneth Aboussie, who traveled to China in 2003 to study the real estate market while a student at the McCombs School of Business at the University of Texas at Austin. “There was no question there was a bubble for that high-end housing,” says Aboussie, who now works at Austin-bas

19、ed Cypress Real Estate Advisors.Still another cause for Chinas real estate boom is widespread anticipation that China will revalue the yuan soon. Chinas government has been under increasing pressure from the U.S. to dismantle the yuans current peg to the dollar and allow it to increase in value. Cri

20、tics argue Chinas currency is undervalued by roughly 25%, making its exports artificially cheaper and imports into the country more expensive.Should the yuan increase in value, investments in Chinese assets such as real estate can be expected to rise as well, says Whartons Zhang. “Part of the specul

21、ation comes from the expectation of the appreciation of the currency.” Some of those real estate bets based on the yuans revaluation are foreign in nature, Zhang suggests, adding, however, that Chinese citizens also have poured money into real estate holdings, especially after the disappointing perf

22、ormance of Chinese stocks a few years ago. The Dangers of Panicked SellingAs with other economic bubbles throughout history - such as Hollands tulip craze in the 1600s and the Internet stock frenzy earlier this decade - theres a danger that Chinas real estate prices will collapse quickly. Thats the

23、flip side of the inflated prices associated with a bubble, Zhang explains. Amid panicked selling, buyers may sit on the sidelines until prices crater to unreasonably low values. “When the price is on the way down,” problems can arise that “could destroy the whole real estate market,” Zhang says.Acco

24、rding to Haley, a rapid loss of real estate values would harm Chinas major banks. Household loans, including home loans, make up just 10 to 15% of loans in China, but more than half of Chinese lending is collateralized with private property, she says.The run-up in property prices has had positive ef

25、fects, points out Harrison Duan, a Chinese native who attended the McCombs school and accompanied Aboussie on his first-hand study of Chinas real estate market. Construction and steel are among the industries in China that have benefited from the boom. “Over the last five years, real estate has been

26、 a really important growth engine in China,” he notes, adding that those Chinese who bought homes three or four years ago have gained a great deal of wealth, at least on paper.But that equity appreciation may not mean much for families that need to live in their homes even as the skyrocketing prices

27、 in places like Shanghai are very disappointing to many city residents. “The Shanghai middle class can no longer afford to buy an apartment for themselves in a convenient location,” says Duan, who now works for computer giant Dell as a global commodities manager focused on wireless communications pr

28、oducts. Duan lives in the Austin, Texas, area on a guest worker visa, but can imagine returning to China someday. And if he does, Shanghai - not far from where he grew up - is probably where he would go. And yet, according to Duan, it would be much harder for a local middle-class family to purchase

29、a home in Shanghai than in Austin. Those individual struggles could conceivably turn into urban protests, echoing reports of a slew of other protests in the country within the past year. At the same time, an overnight price collapse could erase the life savings of many Chinese, another possible sour

30、ce of unrest that “worries the government,” Zhang says. Against this backdrop, the Chinese government has tried to quiet the real estate boom with a series of measures, including higher mortgage rates and larger down payments, according to a May article published by Xinhua. As of June 1, a 5.5% capi

31、tal gains tax was due to take effect on residential property sold within two years of purchase. In addition, Shanghai in May enacted a new law requiring homeowners to pay off their mortgage before selling a property. Even so, Zhang thinks more action may be needed to guide home prices to a soft land

32、ing. “It looks like the measures may not be sufficient to cool the market.” The key, he says, is moderate steps designed to work over the course of several years. Draconian action aimed at solving the problem in a mere years time risks triggering panicked selling. Also unwise, in Zhangs view, would

33、be a hike in overall interest rates, which could freeze lending for new home construction but also stifle the countrys economic growth.Whartons Wong warns that another oft-discussed tool for deflating bubbles could have a negative overall impact: a stiff transaction tax on home sales. A transaction

34、tax can reduce speculative trading but might have a limited effect on the size of the bubble. Whats more, the tactic “discourages real buyers from entering the market.”The Chinese government isnt the only force with the potential to slow runaway home prices. Growing involvement in China by Western i

35、nvestors also can play a positive role, observers say. As U.S. banks and real estate investors become more engaged in Chinas financial system, they are bound to impart better lending practices, Aboussie suggests. “They will provide sound underwriting standards and some restraint to speculative devel

36、opment.”Perhaps the most visible sign of growing Western interest in Chinas financial sector was Bank of Americas announcement in June that it would pay $3 billion for a 9% “strategic stake” in China Construction Bank. The chairman of China Construction Bank all but admitted his institution needed i

37、nstruction in risk-based lending practices. “The most fundamental and challenging task in transforming CCB is to establish a culture that is customer centric and market driven,” chairman Guo Shuqing said in a statement. Under the deal, Bank of America has the right to bring its total ownership of CC

38、B as high as 19.9% over the next five and one half years.Haley, though, is not optimistic that Western companies will be able to make much of a dent in the way Chinas real estate market operates. The problem, as she sees it, is that even those foreign companies will have a hard time finding their wa

39、y in a housing market and broader economic system that remains opaque and full of uncertainty. “We dont know what we dont know about Chinese markets,” she says.This point dovetails with what Wong sees as a crucial step needed in China to temper housing speculation and improve choices for individuals

40、: better sources of data. While it is easy for a homeowner in the United States to find out how much a nearby home sold for, such information is very difficult to gather in China. Wong would like to see standard, countrywide real estate data as well as the advent of private data services that can su

41、pplement government figures. “More information is better,” she says.中文翻译：面对如此明显的中国房地产制度泡沫，我们又该做些什么你觉得美国的房价已经疯了吗，那么看看上海和北京的房价情况吧，这两个城市的房间爱在近些年来达到了约25%的年涨幅，这一涨幅是去年美国房地产价格中尾数涨幅的两倍：据某些观察人士指出，这预示着中国的房地产市场正陷于可能破灭的泡沫之中。中国房地产的泡沫源于1990年以来中国强劲的经济增长，以及投资者对人民币在近期内升值的预期，不过，这一投机因素正在将房地产价格推高到中国主要城市的中产阶层无力消费的水平，并使市

42、场突然崩盘的可能性增大，这种崩盘将会给中国虚弱的银行业猛力一击，并使众多家庭的储蓄化为乌有。有些人认为美国投资者逐步进入中国市场的举措包括近期美洲银行（Bank of America）购买中国建设银行9%的股份将会有助于平抑过热的中国房地产市场。中国政府处于对因房地产价格的持续上涨或急速滑落而可能导致的社会不安定情况的考虑，已着手采取平抑市场的措施。沃顿商学院营销学教授张忠（John Zhang）指出，中国政府的努力目前为止仍不足以平抑上涨的房地产价格。他警告说，政府必须对下一步的举措慎之又慎。他认为，“挤泡沫的过程的确需要谨慎对待。”Inconsistent Data不一致的数据中国的房地产

43、市场仍是新生事物，中国政府曾对房地产行业长期进行严格管控，知道20世纪90年代早期免费的政府公房退出历史舞台。但是，即便是现在的房地产市场仍带有过去机制的遗风。国家拥有中国全部的土地：个人只是购买在土地上进行建房的权利或购买已存在的建筑物的权利。与中国经济的其他衡量指标一样，很难对中国房地产价格的变动做出精准的衡量，据去年6月中国官方新华社引用中国国家统计局的一则报道指出，去年中国的平均房价上升了14.4%。该报道还称，北京的房价甚至正在下跌。但是在该报道中，统计局的一位官员指出，这些数字“并不能代表房地产市场的全面状况”，一些政府的数据也是不一致的。沃顿商学院房地产教授格雷斯王（Grace

44、Wong）认为，由于缺乏可信的数据，因此认为中国的房地产市场已经形成泡沫可能也言之过早，王曾写过一系列关于20世纪90年代末期香港快速上涨的房地产价格的分析文章。她指出，泡沫一般被定义为价格水平超出经济基础对应的正常水平。市场投机心理当买方主要因预计市场价格将上升而购房时会导致泡沫的产生，但是市场价格也因建筑成本上升或是供小于求等因素而出现上涨。她认为，“如果是市场的基本面因素使然，那么对于房地产市场价格的上涨就无需担心。”尤尔莎哈莱（Usha Haley）现任纽黑文大选（University of New Haven）商学院的国际商业学教授，她认为，对全国性泡沫的讨论可能出现夸大事实的现象。

45、她预计中国整体的房地产价格在近些年里每年的涨幅为10%。这一涨幅落后于包括美国在内的全国许多国家的房地产市场涨幅，哈哈莱就是其近期有关中国商业的新书题为商业的中国之道（The Chinese Tao of Business）一书中指出，上海和北京等城市在过去几年中房地产年涨幅近25-26%这一现象只是特殊的个案，在上海的涨幅达到约每平方米784美元。北京的房价相比偏低，涨幅也没有这么大。甚至这些价格本身也未标明市场的普遍情况。一家熟悉上海房地产市场的消息渠道称，新上海高层建筑集中地区的未完工公寓“毛坯”房市场售价仍达每平方米2000美元。哈莱认为，在中国房地产价格高涨的众多因素中，政府的腐败现

46、象也是原因之一，当地官员或通过价格合谋而达到谋取私利的目的，或通过推动房地产价格的上涨而造成政绩虚高，另一个因素是中国整体经济增长。据美国政府部门指出，中国经济在1990年到2004年之间平均以每年10%的速度增长，这是全球最高的经济增长率。中国在2004年的贸易总额超过1.1万亿元，使中国成为名列美国与德国之后的全球第三大贸易国。随着中国已逐渐成为全球经济的核心，市场预计那些目标客户为外国公司高管及管理人员及其他外派人员的房地产需求还会升温。肯尼斯阿博西（Kenneth Aboussie）曾是位于奥士汀市的德克萨斯大学（University of Texas）迈克库姆斯商学院（McCombs

47、 School of Business）的一名学生，他曾在2003年来到中国调查当地的房地产市场情况，他指出，上述需求的增长导致了更高的房地产市场价格，现在奥斯汀市柏木房地产顾问公司（Cypress Real Estate Advisors）任职的阿博西认为，“可以肯定这一房地产高端市场肯定存在泡沫。”中国房地产市场繁荣得另一个因素是市场广泛预期人民币不久就升值。中国政府受到美国日益加重的施压，要求中国放弃与美元挂钩的固定汇率体系，从而使人民币升值，批评人士指出，人民币的价值约被低估了25%，使中国的出口产品价格偏低，而进口产品价格偏高。沃顿的张教授认为，如果人民币出现升值，那么对中国资产（包

48、括房地产）的投资也将预计出现上涨，“部分投机因素源于对于人民币升值的预期。”张教授认为，一些房地产市场的投机行为来自国外的资金，不过中国公民也将资金投入到房地产市场上，尤其是中国的故事在几年前进入熊市以来。 恐慌性抛售的危险正如历史上的其他经济泡沫一样例如，17世纪的荷兰郁金香泡沫，以及21实际的互联网股票中国的房地产价格存在快速崩盘的危险。张教授解释道，这就是与泡沫相关的价格飞涨的另一面。在恐慌性抛售过程中，买家会在局外旁观，知道市场价格降到极其不合理的低位为止。张教授说道，“当价格进入下降通道”，种种问题就会出现，“对房地产市场造成毁灭性的打击。”据哈莱指出，房地产资产价值的快速缩水会危及

49、中国的主要银行，她指出，包括房屋贷款在内的家庭借贷仅占中国借贷总额的10%-15%左右，但是超过一半的借贷是以私有财产作抵押的。哈里森段（Harrison Duan）认为，房地产市场价格的上涨也存在着正面影响，他是在迈克库姆斯商学院求学的中国学生，也是陪伴阿博西对中国的房地产市场进行第一手调研的伙伴。建筑行业和钢铁行业是受益于中国房地产市场繁荣度的众多行业中的两个例子。他指出，“在过去五年中，房地产行业是中国一个重要的经济增长引擎。”他还补充道，那些在三、四年前购房的中国人已获得巨大的收益，之多是纸面财富。但是，资产的升值对于那些自住用房的家庭而言并没有多大意义：对于许多市民而言，即便是上海这些城市高涨的房价也是非常令人失望的。段说道，“上海的中产阶