XX人力资源咨询报告(英文)课件.ppt

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1、Designing annuity products for consumers needs,Presented byMike WadsworthPartner,Watson WMay 2003,Agenda,Options for generating lifetime incomeConsumer needsInvesting for lifeManaging survivalA new model,I dont want to achieve immortality through my work-I want to achieve it by not dyingWoody Allen,

2、People will soon live twice as long as today,and have the potential to live for 1200 yearsJohn Harris,ScientistMember of UK Human Genetics Commissionas reported Sunday Times,25 June 2000,Funeral firm hit by 29%profit fallNot enough people are dying in the US,according to Service Corporation Internat

3、ional,the worlds largest funeral services companyTimes,2 October 1999,Scale of opportunitiesPeople over 65,Source:US Bureau of the Census,Annuity versus bond yield,Income taken monthly in advance;interest rate 5%paAnnuity income broken down into capital element and the balance(ie interest element),O

4、ptions for retirement income,100%,Pensioner Investment Guarantees,PensionerSurvivalGuarantees,Traditional Annuity,LumpSum,?,Watson Wyatt Partners 2000,0%,0%,Traditional annuitiesSome important questions,How much do the guarantees cost?How valuable are they to customers?early in retirement/later in r

5、etirement?according to other assets?How will lifestyles and needs change in retirement?Will customers change their minds over time?,Key issues for designThe Pensioner,Choice(investment)Flexibility(income)Protection(survival)Communication(trade offs)Fail safe,A lifetime asset allocation modelTraditio

6、nal,Either lump sum,Or annuity,Retire,Retire,Optimum return(equities?),Optimum return(equities?),Cash,Bonds,Bonds,Watson Wyatt Partners 2000,A lifetime asset allocation modelProposed,Optimum return(equities?),Optimum return(equities?),Bonds,Retire,Watson Wyatt Partners 2000,Effect of investment grow

7、th onsupportable income-males,Base income supportable calculated at 5%.Income multiple=income supportable assuming extra investment return resulting from equity investment of 1,2,3,4 or 5%pa after charges,divided by base income.Mortality as previously,Watson Wyatt Partners 2000,Planning retirement i

8、ncome,The consumer problem is.How long will I live?Lifespan is a distribution not an expectation,Distribution of deathsRetirement at age 60,Mortality:PMA92/PFA92 Year of use 2001,Watson Wyatt Partners 2000,Distribution of deaths by age now,Age 75 now,Watson Wyatt Partners 2000,Mortality:PMA92/PFA92

9、Year of use 2001,Distribution of deaths by age now,Age 90 now,Watson Wyatt Partners 2000,Mortality:PMA92/PFA92 Year of use 2001,Standard deviation of deaths,asa proportion of life expectancy,Mortality:PMA92/PFA92 Year of use 2001,Watson Wyatt Partners 2000,Method of calculationNon-annuitised fundInc

10、ome each year defined as:Fund value/annuity factorAnnuity factor calculated at assumed investment return of 0%or 7%pa(excluding expenses)Investment return achieved equal to 7%pa(excluding expenses),Investment return assumed:,(excl expenses),Investment return achieved:7%pa(excl expenses),Watson Wyatt

11、 Partners 2000,Progression of income:spreading fund over future life expectation,Progression of income-annuitised fund versusnon-annuitised fund,Watson Wyatt Partners 2000,Supplier view of mortality guarantees,Mortality improvingHow fast1%pa?2%pa?3%pa?In future?Scope to review?Guarantees are(too)exp

12、ensive?,Mortality drift-uncertain future improvements,Both charts show expected distribution of deaths for male aged 60 in 1992,allowing for future improvements.PMA92 represents the more recent estimate,Cross-subsidy operates across either distribution,and longevity protection is largely retained ev

13、en if mortality is reviewed,Drift in anticipated distribution allowing for newer evidence,Watson Wyatt Partners 2000,Excess survivors-PMA92 compared with PMA80,Cost to annuity provider of not reviewing mortality relates to payments made to those survivors who were not expected to live so long-the re

14、d zone,Watson Wyatt Partners 2000,New model,Investment fund+Insurance against survival,Lifetime income model-benefit statement,UnitsUnit PriceValue Start of Year10,00010.00100,000Annuity Payments(975)(10,000)Survival Bonus2953,000Effect of Changes in Unit Price4,860End of Year9,32010.5097,860Target

15、Incomefor Next Year10,000,Watson Wyatt Partners 2000,Equivalent additional fundgrowth resulting from mortalitycross-subsidy,Mortality:PMA92/PFA92 Calendar Year 2001,Watson Wyatt Partners 2000,Equivalent additional fund growth,M F%pa%pa754.12.88513.18.49533.221.2NB:Partial survival protection possibl

16、e,Flexible annuity review cycle,Initial max/min income calcd,Annuitant selects income between max and min to next review,Payments deducted according to annuitant requirements/survival credits/investment returns added,Fund balance determined at review,Max/min income to next review calcd,Watson Wyatt

17、Partners 2000,Flexible incomeThe corridor,Income levelchosen by the annuitant,annual maximum,annual minimum,Watson Wyatt Partners 2001,Communication of benefitsIncome projections-income takeninitially=income supportable at 7%pa,Watson Wyatt Partners 2000,Income projections-income takeninitially=1.1

18、x income supportableat 7%pa,Watson Wyatt Partners 2000,Income projections-income takeninitially=0.9 x income supportableat 7%pa,Watson Wyatt Partners 2000,Income projections-variable investment model,Watson Wyatt Partners 2000,Fail safe,Default investment strategies,egequities bonds over lifetimePro

19、grammed switching to guarantee at high ageProgrammed switching to guarantee on sustained market fall,eg Japan scenarioVoluntary switching NB:More features better systems,Annuity developments-unbundling dynamic,More impaired life/enhanced annuities,Other gteed annuities more expensive/less profitable

20、,More equity based annuities,Weaker longevity guarantees,Watson Wyatt Partners 2002,Effect of LTC rider on income,Before LTC claim,After LTC claim,The product is a variable annuity prior to claim,then a fixed LTC annuity after claim,plus a continuing variable annuity(which could convert to a convent

21、ional annuity).The level of benefit is chosen by the insured.,CLAIM,Income supportable with no LTC rider(normal income),LTC income=50%of income pre-claimIncome=96.5%of normal,LTC income=100%of income pre-claimIncome=92.5%of normal,Advantages of lifetime income model,Pensionersnatural extension to DC

22、 pension vehiclechoose and vary asset allocationflexibility of incomeoptimise income relative to riskInsurers/fund managerslongevity risk manageablepotential segmentation of risksnot restricted by available bond(or other)investmentsglobal multi market applicationAlso financial planners/bond suppliers,Designing annuity products for consumer needs,Presented byMike WadsworthPartner,Watson WMay 2002,