人力资本投资-舒尔茨-英文.docx

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1、Review,Vol.51 ,No. 1 (Mar., 1961), 1 -17.InvestmentinHumanCapitalTheodoreW.SchultzTheAmericanEconomicStableURL:httplinks.jstor.org/sici?sici=0002-8282%28196103%2951%3A1%3CI%3AIIHC%3E2.0.CO%3B2-4TheAmericanEconomicReviewiscurrentlypublishedbyAmericanEconomicAssociation.YouruseoftheJSTORarchiveindicat

2、esyouracceptanceofJSTORsTermsandConditionsofUse,availableath(tp:/www.jstor.org/about/terms.html.JSTORsTermsandConditionsofUseprovides,inpart,thatunlessyouhaveobtainedpriorpermission,youmaynotdownloadanentireissueofajournalormultiplecopiesofarticles,andyoumayusecontentintheJSTORarchiveonlyforyourpers

3、onal,non-commercialuse.Pleasecontactthepublisherregardinganyfurtheruseofthiswork.Publishercontactinformationmaybeobtainedathttp:/www.jstor.org/joumals/aea.html.EachcopyofanypartofaJSTORtransmissionmustcontainthesamecopyrightnoticethatappearsonthescreenorprintedpageofsuchtransmission.JSTORisanindepen

4、dentnot-for-profitorganizationdedicatedtocreatingandpreser,ingadigitalarchiveofscholarlyjournals.FormoreinformationregardingJSTOR,pleasecontactjstor-infbumich.edu.http:/www.jstor.org/WedJan1412:18:292004TheAmericanEconomicReviewVOLUMELIMARCH1961NUMBERONEINVESTMENTINHUMANCAPITAL*ByTHEODOREW.SCHULTZAl

5、thoughitisobviousthatpeopleacquireusefulskillsandknowledge,itisnotobviousthattheseskillsandknowledgeareaformofcapital,thatthiscapitalisinsubstantialpartaproductofdeliberateinvestment,thatithasgrowninWesternsocietiesatamuchfasterratethanconventional(nonhuman)capital,andthatitsgrowthmaywellbethemostdi

6、stinctivefeatureoftheeconomicsystem.Ithasbeenwidelyobservedthatincreasesinnationaloutputhavebeenlargecomparedwiththeincreasesofland,man-hours,andphysicalreproduciblecapital.Investmentinhumancapitalisprobablythemajorexplanationforthisdifference.Muchofwhatwecallconsumptionconstitutesinvestmentinhumanc

7、apital.Directexpendituresoneducation,health,andinternalmigrationtotakeadvantageofbetterjobopportunitiesareclearexamples.Earningsforegonebymaturestudentsattendingschlandbyworkersacquiringon-the-jobtrainingareequallyclearexamples.Yetnowheredotheseenterintoournationalaccounts.Theuseofleisuretimetoimpro

8、veskillsandknowledgeiswidespreadandittooisunrecorded.Intheseandsimilarwaysthequalityofhumaneffortcanbegreatlyimprovedanditsproductivityenhanced.!shallcontendthatsuchinvestmentinhumancapitalaccountsformostoftheimpressiveriseintherealearningsperworker.Ishallcomment,first,onthereasonswhyeconomistshaves

9、hiedawayfromtheexplicitanalysisofinvestmentinhumancapital,andthen,onthecapacityofsuchinvestmenttoexplainmanyapuzzleabouteconomicgrowth.Mainly,however,Ishallconcentrateonthescopeandsubstanceofhumancapitalanditsformation.InclosingIshallconsidersomesocialandpolicyimplications.*PresidentialAddressdelive

10、redattheSeventy-ThirdAnnualMeetingoftheAmericanEconomicASSOCiaIiOn.SaintLouis.December28.l96O.TheauthorisindebtedtohiscolleaguesMiltonFriodman,forhisveryhelpfulsuggestionstogainclarityandcogency,andHarryG.Johnsonforpointingoutanumberofambiguities.Number62ofaseriesofphotographsofpastpresidentsoftheAs

11、sociation.I. ShyingAwayfromInvestmentinManEconomistshavelongknownthatpeopleareanimportantpartofthewealthofnations.Measuredbywhatlaborcontributestooutput,theproductivecapacityofhumanbeingsisnowvastlylargerthanallotherformsofwealthtakentogether.Whateconomistshavenotstressedisthesimpletruththatpeoplein

12、vestinthemselvesandthattheseinvestmentsareverylarge.Althougheconomistsareseldomtimidinenteringonabstractanalysisandareoftenproudofbeingimpractical,theyhavenotbeenboldincomingtogripswiththisformofinvestment.Whenevertheycomeevenclose,theyproceedgingerlyasiftheyweresteppingintodeepwater.Nodoubtthereare

13、reasonsforbeingwary.Deep-seatedmoralandphilosophicalissuesareeverpresent.Freemenarefirstandforemosttheendtobeservedbyeconomicendeavor;theyarenotpropertyormarketableassets.Andnotleast,ithasbeenalltooconvenientinmarginalproductivityanalysistotreatlaborasifitwereauniquebundleofinnateabilitiesthatarewho

14、llyfreeofcapital.Themerethoughtofinvestmentinhumanbeingsisoffensivetosomeamongus.1Ourvaluesandbeliefsinhibitusfromlookinguponhumanbeingsascapitalgoods,exceptinslavery,andthisweabhor.Wearenotunaffectedbythelongstruggletoridsocietyofindenturedserviceandtoevolvepoliticalandlegalinstitutionstokeepmenfre

15、efrombondage.Theseareachievementsthatweprizehighly.Hence,totreathumanbeingsaswealththatcanbeaugmentedbyinvestmentrunscountertodeeplyheldvalues.Itseemstoreducemanonceagaintoamerematerialcomponent,tosomethingakintoproperty.Andformantolookuponhimselfasacapitalgood,evenifitdidnotimpairhisfreedom,mayseem

16、todebasehim.NolessapersonthanJ.S.MillatonetimeinsistedthatthepeopleofacountryshouldnotbeIoOkeduponaswealthbecausewealthexistedonlyforthesakeofpeople15.ButsurelyMillwaswrong;thereisnothingintheconceptofhumanwealthcontrarytohisideathatitexistsonlyfortheadvantageofpeople.Byinvestinginthemselves,peoplec

17、anenlargetherangeofchoiceavailabletothem.Itisonewayfreemencanenhancetheirwelfare.Amongthefewwhohavelookeduponhumanbeingsascapital,therearethreedistinguishednames.Thephilosopher-economistAdamSmithboldlyincludedalloftheacquiredandusefulabilitiesofalloftheinhabitantsofacountryasapartofcapital.SodidH.vo

18、nThinen,whothenwentontoarguethattheconceptofcapitalappliedtomandidnotdegradehimorimpairhisfreedomanddignity,butonthecontrarythatthefailuretoapplytheconceptwasespeciallyperniciousinwars;u.fdrhere.onewillsacrificeinabattleahundred1ThispciragraphdrawsontheintroductiontomyTellerLecture16.humanbeingsinth

19、eprimeoftheirliveswithoutathoughtinordertosaveonegun.,Thereasonisthat,44.thepurchaseofacannoncausesanoutlayofpublicfunds,whereashumanbeingsaretobehadfornothingbymeansofamereconscriptiondecree,20.IrvingFisheralsoclearlyandcogentlypresentedanall-inclusiveconceptofcapital6.Yetthemainstreamofthoughthash

20、eldthatitisneitherappropriatenorpracticaltoapplytheconceptofcapitaltohumanbeings.Marshall11,whosegreatprestigegoesfartoexplainwhythisviewwasaccepted,heldthatwhilehumanbeingsareincontestablycapitalfromanabstractandmathematicalpointofview,itwouldbeoutoftouchwiththemarketplacetotreatthemascapitalinprac

21、ticalanalyses.Investmentinhumanbeingshasaccordinglyseldombeenincorporatedintheformalcoreofeconomics,eventhoughmanyeconomists,includingMarshall,haveseenitsrelevanceatonepointoranotherinwhattheyhavewritten.Thefailuretotreathumanresourcesexplicitlyasaformofcapital,asaproducedmeansofproduction,astheprod

22、uctofinvestment,hasfosteredtheretentionoftheclassicalnotionoflaborasacapacitytodomanualworkrequiringlittleknowledgeandskill,acapacitywithwhich,accordingtothisnotion,laborersareendowedaboutequally.Thisnotionoflaborwaswrongintheclassicalperiodanditispatentlywrongnow.Countingindividualswhocanandwanttow

23、orkandtreatingsuchacountasameasureofthequantityofaneconomicfactorisnomoremeaningfulthanitwouldbetocountthenumberofallmannerofmachinestodeterminetheireconomicimportanceeitherasastockofcapitalorasaflowofproductiveservices.Laborershavebecomecapitalistsnotfromadiffusionoftheownershipofcorporationstocks,

24、asfolklorewouldhaveit,butfromtheacquisitionofknowledgeandskillthathaveeconomicvalue9.Thisknowledgeandskillareingreatparttheproductofinvestmentand,combinedwithotherhumaninvestment,predominantlyaccountfortheproductivesuperiorityofthetechnicallyadvancedcountries.Toomittheminstudyingeconomicgrowthislike

25、tryingtoexplainSovietideologywithoutMarx.II. EconomicGrowthfromHumanCapitalManyparadoxesandpuzzlesaboutourdynamic,growingeconomycanberesolvedoncehumaninvestmentistakenintoaccount.Letmebeginbysketchingsomethatareminorthoughnottrivial.Whenfarmpeopletakenonfarmjobstheyearnsubstantiallylessthanindustria

26、lworkersofthesamerace,age,andsex.Similarlynonwhiteurbanmalesearnmuchlessthanwhitemalesevenafterallowanceismadefortheeffectsofdifferencesinunemployment,age,citysizeandregion21.Becausethesedifferentialsinearningscorrespondcloselytocorrespondingdifferentialsineducation,theystronglysuggestthattheoneisac

27、onsequenceoftheother.Negroeswhooperatefarms,whetherastenantsorasowners,earnmuchlessthanwhitesoncomparablefarms.2Fortunately,cropsandlivestockarenotvulnerabletotheblightofdiscrimination.Thelargedifferencesinearningsseemrathertoreflectmainlythedifferencesinhealthandeducation.WorkersintheSouthontheaver

28、ageearnappreciablylessthanintheNorthorWestandtheyalsohaveontheaveragelesseducation.Mostmigratoryfarmworkersearnverylittleindeedbycomparisonwithotherworkers.Manyofthemhavevirtuallynoschooling,areinpoorhealth,areunskilled,andhavelittleabilitytodousefulwork.Tourgethatthedifferencesintheamountofhumaninv

29、estmentmayexplainthesedifferencesinearningsseemselementary.Ofmorerecentvintageareobservationsshowingyoungerworkersatacompetitiveadvantage;forexample,youngmenenteringthelaborforcearesaidtohaveanadvantageoverunemployedolderworkersinobtainingsatisfactoryjobs.Mostof.theseyoungpeoplepossesstwelveyearsofs

30、chool,mostoftheolderworkerssixyearsorless.Theobservedadvantageoftheseyoungerworkersmaythereforeresultnotfrominflexibilitiesinsocialsecurityorinretirementprograms,orfromsociologicalpreferenceofemployers,butfromrealdifferencesinproductivityconnectedwithoneformofhumaninvestment,i.e.,education.Andyetano

31、therexample,thecurverelatingincometoagetendstobesteeperforskilledthanforunskilledpersons.Investmentinon-the-jobtrainingseemsalikelyexplanation,asIshallnotelater.Economicgrowthrequiresmuchinternalmigrationofworkerstoadjusttochangingjobopportunities10.Youngmenandwomenmovemorereadilythanolderworkers.Su

32、relythismakeseconomicsensewhenonerecognizesthatthecostsofsuchmigrationareaformofhumaninvestment.Youngpeoplehavemoreyearsaheadofthemthanolderworkersduringwhichtheycanrealizeonsuchaninvestment.Henceittakeslessofawagedifferentialtomakeiteconomicallyadvantageousforthemtomove,or,toputitdifferently,youngp

33、eoplecanexpectahigherreturnontheirinvestmentinmigrationthanolderpeople.Thisdifferentialmayexplainselectivemigrationwithoutrequiringanappealtosociologicaldifferencesbetweenyoungandoldpeople.Theexamplessofargivenareforinvestmentinhumanbeingsthatyieldareturnoveralongperiod.Thisistrueequallyofinvestment

34、ineducation,training,andmigrationofyoungpeople.Notallinvestmentsinhumanbeingsareofthiskind;somearemorenearlyakintocurrentinputsasforexampleexpendituresonfoodandshelterinsomecoun-BasedonunpublishedpreliminaryresultsobtainedbyJosephWillettinhisPh.D.researchattheUniversityofChicago.trieswhereworkismain

35、lytheapplicationofbrutehumanforce,callingforenergyandstamina,andwheretheintakeoffoodisfarfromenoughtodoafulldayswork.Onthe44hungry,steppesandintheteemingvalleysofAsia,millionsofadultmaleshavesomeageradietthattheycannotdomorethanafewhoursofhardwork.Tocallthemunderemployeddoesnotseempertinent.Undersuc

36、hcircumstancesitiscertainlymeaningfultotreatfoodpartlyasconsumptionandpartlyasaCUiTent“producergood,assomeIndianeconomistshavedone3.LetusnotforgetthatWesterneconomistsduringtheearlydecadesofindustrializationandeveninthetimeofMarshallandPigouoftenconnectedadditionalfoodforworkerswithincreasesinlaborp

37、roductivity.Letmenowpassontothreemajorperplexingquestionscloselyconnectedwiththeriddleofeconomicgrowth.First,considerthelong-periodbehaviorofthecapital-incomeratio.Weweretaughtthatacountrywhichamassedmorereproduciblecapitalrelativetoitslandandlaborwouldemploysuchcapitalingreatertdepth,becauseofitsgr

38、owingabundanceandcheapness.Butapparentlythisisnotwhathappens.Onthecontrary,theestimatesnowavailableshowthatlessofsuchcapitaltendstobeemployedrelativetoincomeaseconomicgrowthpro-ceeds.Arewetoinferthattheratioofcapitaltoincomehasnorelevance,inexplainingeitherpovertyoropulence?Orthatariseofthisratioisn

39、otaprerequisitetoeconomicgrowth?Thesequestionsraisefundamentalissuesbearingonmotivesandpreferencesforholdingwealthaswellasonthemotivesforparticularinvestmentsandthestockofcapitaltherebyaccumulated.Formypurposeallthatneedstobesaidisthattheseestimatesofcapital-incomeratiosrefertoonlyapartofallcapital.

40、Theyexcludeinparticular,andmostunfortunately,anyhumancapital.Yethumancapitalhassurelybeenincreasingatarateosubstantiallygreaterthanreproducible(nonhuman)capital.Wecannot,therefore,inferfromtheseestimatesthatthestockofallcapitalhasbeendecreasingrelativetoincome.Onthecontrary,ifweacceptthenotimplausib

41、leassumptionthatthemotivesandpreferencesofpeople,thetechnicalopportunitiesopentothem,andtheuncertaintyassociatedwitheconomicgrowthduringparticularperiodswereleadingpeopletomaintainroughlyaconstantratiobetweenallcapitalandincome,thedeclineintheestimatedcapital-incomeratio3issimplyasignalthathumancapi

42、talhasbeenincreasingrelativelynotonlytoconventionalcapitalbutalsotoincome.Thebumpercropofestimatesthatshownationalincomeincreas-1leaveasideherethediffcultiesinherentinidentifyingandmeasuringboththenonhumancapitalandtheincomeenteringintoestimatesofthisratio.Thereareindexnumberandaggregationproblemsap

43、lenty.andnotallimprovementsinthequalityofthiscapitalhavebeenaccountedfbr,asIshallnotelater.ingfasterthannationalresourcesraisesasecondandnotunrelatedpuzzle.TheincomeoftheUnitedStateshasbeenincreasingatamuchvhigherratethanthecombinedamountofland,man-hoursworkedandthestockofreproduciblecapitalusedtopr

44、oducetheincome.More-over,thediscrepancybetweenthetworateshasbecomelargerfromonebusinesscycletothenextduringrecentdecades5.Tocallthisdiscrepancyameasureoftresourceproductivity,givesanametoourignorancebutdoesnotdispelit.Ifweaccepttheseestimates,theconnectionsbetweennationalresourcesandnationalincomeha

45、vebecomelooseandtenuousovertime.Unlessthisdiscrepancycanberesolved,receivedtheoryofproductionappliedtoinputsandoutputsascurrentlymeasuredisatoyandnotatoolforstudyingeconomicgrowth.Twosetsofforcesprobablyaccountforthediscrepancy,ifweneglectentirelytheindexnumberandaggregationproblemsthatbedevilallest

46、imatesofsuchglobalaggregatesastotailoutputandtotalinput.Oneisreturnstoscale;thesecond,thelargeimprovementsinthequalityofinputsthathaveoccurredbuthavebeenomittedfromtheinputestimates.Oureconomyhasundoubtedlybeenexperiencingincreasingreturnstoscaleatsomepointsoffsetbydecreasingreturnsatothers.Ifwecans

47、ucceedinidentifyingandmeasuringthenetgains,theymayturnouttohavebeensubstantial.Theimprovementsinthequalityofinputsthathavenotbeenadequatelyallowedforarenodoubtpartlyinmaterial(nonhuman)capilal.Myownconception,howeverjsthatboththisdefectandtheomissionofeconomiesofscaleareminorsourcesofdiscrepancybetw

48、eentheratesofgrowthofinputsandoutputscomparedtotheimprovementsinhumancapacitythathavebeenomitted.Asmallsteptakesusfromthesetwopuzzlesraisedbyexistingestimatestoathirdwhichbringsustotheheartofthematter,namelythe-essentiallyunexplainedlargeincreaseinrealearningsofworkers.Canthisbeawindfall?Oraquasiren

49、tpendingtheadjustmentinthesupplyoflabor?Or,apurerentreflectingthefixedamountoflabor?Itseemsfarmorereasonablethatitrepresentsratherareturntotheinvestmentthathasbeenmadeinhumanbeings.Theobservedgrowthinproductivityperunitoflaborissimplyaconsequenceofholdingtheunitoflaborconstantovertimealthoughinfactthisunitoflaborhasbeenincreasingasaresultofasteadilygro