The international experience of financial crisis and reality think.doc

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1、 The international experience of financial crisis and reality think Content abstract: Since 90 time, the financial crisis that erupts often brought huge harm to each country economy. The article reviews above all and induced each country erupts the reason of financial crisis, sum up its experience a

2、nd lesson, the likelihood in integrating system of our country banking next causes the ingredient that the crisis produces, to our country prevents and resisting financial crisis undertook be discussinged benignantly, final to table a proposal. Keyword: Financial crisis experience and homiletic real

3、ity thinkOpen financial industry stage by stage as economic globalization and our country, the financial system of our country more and more make world banking system impartible cut one share. However the financial crisis that produces often is clear however since 20 centuries wear without by accide

4、nt declare publicly the harm sex of financial crisis. Especially to us a such big countries, financial crisis in a sense may be a disastrous result. Although our country heretofore returns have not to be in,produce financial crisis, but the economic structure that this does not mean our country and

5、financial system have how perfect, and more but end is our country to close locatedly before condition. In fact, abroad erupts about China in recent years the argument of financial crisis never has stopped almost. For instance • pulls Nicholas enlighten think, financial crisis of China is alre

6、ady mature, what lack exclusively is the fuse that causes the crisis to erupt in the round (Wu Chuan Fu, 2003) . Have more “ far east economy is commented on “ published an article to think 2002 “ Chinese banking system is destroyed in the trend “ . Although these viewpoints have its jumping-off pla

7、ce each, but interior of Chinese economic system is existing a lot of elements that cause financial crisis are the fact that does not dispute however. Accordingly, open in finance what already made a trend is current, from experience of the derive in the financial crisis that other country produces,

8、 be on guard financial crisis and enhance oneself to resist the ability of financial crisis more pressing and it is important to appear. One, academic overviewAbout financial crisis, more authoritative definition is You Gede Simisi (1982) those who give out, it is all or major finance index - short-

9、term interest rate, asset (asset, negotiable securities, estate, land) the price, business goes broke number and financial orgnaization close down several - quick, brief worsen with what exceed cycle. Its feature is to be based on expect asset price fall and a large number of casting to give capital

10、 fund of praedial or long-term banking, trade a money. Financial crisis can be divided wait for a type for monetary crisis, debt crisis, bank crisis. And in recent years financial crisis more and more present the crisis that gives some kind of mixture form. (one) the financial crisis of Marx is acad

11、emicMarx the theory about financial crisis is to be in what critically Li Jia pursues “ scale “ of Yi of academic, Sa “ market balanced rule “ build on the foundation. Marx points out, monetary occurrence makes the buying and selling of commodity is mixed on time the possibility that depart appears

12、on the space, bring about money and commodity as a result change process occurrence uncertainty, and the money regards the function that pays a means as the possibility that going up objectively to be able to produce debt to pay the crisis again; Accordingly, the independent movement value that the

13、key of the possibility that causes financial crisis and economic crisis depends on commodity and money differring severally is characteristic. And want commodity, money to exist only, economic crisis is inevitable, and can be behaved above all be financial crisis. Marx points out further, “Once the

14、sociality of labor pledges expression is the money of commodity to exist, behave thereby be in the thing besides actual production for, independent monetary crisis or the monetary crisis that turn as real crisis acuteness, it is inevitable. “ visible, marx is monetary banking crisis cent is two sort

15、 model: The monetary banking crisis that accompanies economic crisis to happen and independent monetary banking crisis. The financial crisis that accompanies economic crisis basically is with the market competition, capital is accumulated and the element such as credit development is actual conditio

16、n, and independent monetary banking crisis is the result with financial system disorder interior. At the same time Marx emphasized bank credit particularly the action in alleviation and aggravate banking crisis. As a whole, marx thinks financial crisis is mix with overproduction finance is superfluo

17、us for the condition, performance pays the crisis for the liquidity crisis of enterprise and bank, debt, but its are monetary crisis substantially. (2) financial crisis of the west is academicInchoate more influential financial crisis theory is by Fisher (1933) the debt that raise - deflationary the

18、ory. Fisher thinks, in economic dilate process, the addition of investment basically is to pass bank credit to come true. This meeting causes a money to increase, thereby prices rises; And prices rises to be helpful for debtor again, accordingly credit can expand further, until “ excessive and indeb

19、ted “ condition, namely liquid assets cant the debt that pay off expires, the debt that causes chain as a result - deflationary process, and this process often is with extensive insolvency end. On the theoretical foundation of Fisher, minsky (1963) put forward “ finance is not stable “ academic, tob

20、in (1980) put forward “ bank system is crucial “ academic, kindleberger (1978) put forward “ excessive trade “ academic, m.H.Wolfson (1996) year put forward “ asset price fall “ academic, the liability that admitted Fisher from different respect severally - deflationary theory. 70 time are the follo

21、wing financial crisis erupts oftener and oftener, and often arise at the form of real economy crisis in order to become independent. On this foundation, financial crisis theory also tends maturity is changed gradually. Divide roughly to 90 time from 70 time for 3 phase. The financial crisis model of

22、 the first phase is by P.Krugman (1979) put forward, try to perfect and develop by R.Flood and P.Garber, thinking to be not coordinated between macroscopical economic policy and exchange rate system is the cause that causes financial crisis; Model of crisis of banking of the 2nd phase is by with M.O

23、bstfeld (1994, 1996) for the delegate, basically introduce anticipate an element, right government and private between undertake dynamic rich play chess is analysed, because anticipate the element exists,emphasize financial crisis from facilitating property and economic base variable to producing th

24、e main effect of financial crisis. 1997 after Asian banking crisis, financial crisis manage comes by development the 3rd phase. A lot of scholars jump out the traditional macroscopical economy such as policy of system of monetary policy, exchange rate, finance, public policy analyses limits, begin t

25、o analyse financial crisis from field of information of financial intermediary, asymmetry. Have the representative moral risk model that offers like Krugman(1998) among them, the core effect that the moral risk that emphasizes financial intermediary has in bringing about excessive venture capital in

26、vestment to form asset bubble to change subsequently; Liquidity crisis model (J.Sachs, 1998) , side overweight explains the mechanism that financial crisis forms from the instability of financial system oneself; "Twin crisis " (Kaminsky&Reinhart, 1998) , consider to some connection ori

27、ginally between banking crisis and monetary crisis from respect of a case of a physically strong patient running a high fever or suffering from such disorders as stasis of blood. 2, the international experience of financial crisis and lessonLook from the history, inchoate more typical banking crisis

28、 has Dutch “ tulip is enthusiastic “ , the Mixixibi of the Nanhai bubble of England, France the great depression 1929 waits bubble and United States a moment. Because length place is restricted, the article reviews the great banking crisis that 20 centuries produce since 90 time only, try to find ou

29、t the common element that brings about financial crisis to happen from which, think our country prevents financial crisis to offer draw lessons from. (one) 90 time altogether produced big financial crisis 5 times, be as follows according to time order: 1.1992 - the European currency crisis 1993At th

30、e beginning of 90 time, two heart are amalgamative. To expand economy of region of the eastpart part, germany comes at raising its discount rate on June 16, 1992 8.75 . Result mark exchange rate begins to rise, what cause mechanism of European exchange rate to be as long as 1 year thereby is queasy.

31、 Financial disturbance erupts one after another, pound and Italian lira are forced to exit mechanism of European exchange rate. European currency crisis appears in process of unifinication of European economy currency. From apparently look, because Germany raises discount place to cause alone,be, bu

32、t its are deep administrative levels reason is the European Union is not coordinated of policy of money of each member home products, thereby from go up at all the requirement that violated associated floating rate to make, and do not coordinate of macroscopical economic policy the difference that w

33、ith European Union interior economy develops each member nation is linked together cheek by jowl. 2.1994 - the Mexican banking crisis 1995. On December 20, 1994, mexico announces suddenly to be opposite than all alone the fluctuant extent of dollar exchange rate will be enlarged to 15 , because econ

34、omy is medium accumulate contradiction for a long time, this action sparks market confidence crisis, result people in succession undersell compares all alone, at the beginning of 1995, devalue than all alone 30 . Subsequently the stock market also drops immediately. Devalue to cause the inflation of

35、 the input again considerably than all alone, such, to stabilize a currency, mexico raises interest rate considerably, result home demand decreases, the enterprise closes down in great quantities, unemployed leap. In international the effort of aid and Mexican government falls, financial crisis of M

36、exico began to alleviate later 1995. The main reason of Mexican banking crisis has 3: The first, debt dimensions is giant, the structure is maladjusted; The 2nd, often the project lasts adverse balance of trade, reserve assets is insufficient as a result, pay off ability drops; The 3rd, the need tha

37、t inflexible exchange rate mechanism cannot get used to economy to develop. 3.1997 - the Asian banking crisis 1998Asian banking crisis is the domino effect that Thailand money devalues quickly to be formed in Asian area. Of the length of the wide, duration of the limits that this financial crisis pl

38、ace affects, influence it is the history mostly infrequent, created southeast Asia state not only collect city, stock market queasy, large quantities of finance orgnaizations close down, unemployment increases, economic depression, and still spread to world other area, caused serious effect to globa

39、l economy. Asian banking crisis involves a lot of different countries, each country erupts the reason of the crisis also is distinguished somewhat. However the happening of Asian banking crisis is accidental anything but, different country is existing a lot of common elements that cause financial cr

40、isis generation, be like macroscopical economy unbalance, financial system is weak, capital market is opened with monitoring, the money is exchangeable do not coordinate with money market development wait for a problem (Li Jianjun, Tian Guangning, 1998) . 4.1998 - the Russia banking crisis 1999Get c

41、risis of southeast Asia banking affect, russia money market is in all the time after issueing defeat considerably Summer 1997 not steady state, to May 1998, erupted eventually an unprecedented big shock, the stock market is immersed in the crisis, ruble is sufferred devalue badly pressure. Russia ba

42、nking crisis is the comprehensive report of crisis of Russia politics, economy, society, be called “ Russia syndrome “ . Look from exterior element, because,be on one hand 1997 the influence of Asian banking crisis, because world oil price drops,be on the other hand bring about its balance of paymen

43、ts to worsen, finance revenue decreases. But investigate its are essential, domestic political situation is queasy, economy is long-term stagnant, financial system is diseased, external debt structure is unreasonable the reason that is deep administrative levels. 5.1999 - the Brazilian banking crisi

44、s 2000On January 7, 1999, si Jila of Brazilian rice accept this because exchequer is dried up,the city declares this state, inside 90 days insolvent owe federally the debt of 15.4 billion dollar. This is brought about Brazilian stock market weighs defeat that day 6% the left and right sides, price o

45、f Brazilian government bond also steeps fall 44% , lei Yaer goes weak continuously, central Bank president is in 3 weeks inside for two times easy person. Lei Yaer is right of the dollar collect valence to issue defeat one after another, the stock market drops one after another. “Sang Baxuan wind “

46、at once is blown to Asia, Europe and North America, pounded Latin America country directly, the capital market of the country such as Europe, Asia. The exterior reason of Brazilian banking crisis basically is to suffer Asia and influence of Russia banking crisis to bring about international trade en

47、vironment to worsen, and its interior reason is public debt and public deficit expand increasingly, international trade is long-term adverse balance of trade, the result of a variety of element action such as occurrence error of macroscopical economic policy. A few times from this financial crisis c

48、an see financial crisis actually with respect to the sword as amounting to Makelisi, hang on each country head constantly, just be descend on different country head in different moment just. Can say, the financial crisis of different inside global limits level has year after year almost. In fact, er

49、upted once more 2001 Argentine banking crisis, the frequent sex of crisis of this shows banking. Typical financial crisis has the following characteristics since 20 centuries: (1) . Infectivity; (2) . Abrupt sex; (3) . Ruinous; (4) . Frequent sex. Taking one with another, the outbreak of financial crisis is an a variety of elements the result of joint action. From the point of the incline to of development, financial system is internal more and more the direct matter that becomes financial cris