dsamoled processroadmapreport.ppt

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1、AMOLED Process Roadmap Report,August 2013,Important Notice,Copyright 2013 DisplaySearch,LLC,an NPD Group Company All Rights Reserved.Proprietary and Confidential.This report and all information contained herein is the property of DisplaySearch and is provided for the confidential use of DisplaySearc

2、h clients only,in accordance with DisplaySearchs Terms and Conditions.DisplaySearch makes no representations or warranties of any kind,express or implied,with respect to this report.No reproduction or disclosure of this report,in any manner,in whole or in part,is permitted except as may be expressly

3、 authorized in writing by DisplaySearch,and only with attribution of DisplaySearch as the source.If you would like to add a user to your account or have questions on your account,please contact your company administrator or send an email to.Sourcing DisplaySearch InformationRefer to this report as D

4、isplaySearch AMOLED Process Roadmap Report in citations.If you would like to quote data from this report in an external press release,please contact us at mediaDisplayS.,DisplaySearch2350 Mission College Blvd.Suite 705 Santa Clara,CA 95054Voice:1.408.418.1900 Fax:1.408.418.1910 www.DisplayS contactD

5、isplayS,AMOLED Process Roadmap Report,2,Outline,1.0 Introduction and Methodologyslide 42.0 Executive Summaryslide 6 3.0 Market Trends&Manufacturing Status by Region slide 144.0 Basics of AMOLED slide 305.0 Technology Roadmaps slide 346.0 AMOLED Materialsslide 377.0 Backplane Manufacturingslide 457.1

6、 Backplane-LTPS Detailsslide 567.2 Backplane Oxide TFT Detailsslide 638.0 AMOLED Color Patterning slide 718.1 FMMslide 758.2 WOLEDslide 828.3 Inkjet&Nozzle Printingslide 899.0 AMOLED Encapsulation Technologyslide 9310.0 Key AMOLED Applications and Manufacturing Trendsslide 10010.1 AMOLED TVsslide 10

7、110.2 High Resolution(High PPI)AMOLEDsslide 10710.3 Unbreakable/Flexible AMOLEDs slide 12111.0 Cost Analysis slide 13212.0 Glossary slide 13913.0 Appendix slide 150,AMOLED Process Roadmap Report,3,1.0 Introduction and Methodology,Introduction and Methodology,This report analyzes all major manufactur

8、ing trends and technologies for AMOLED.Components,materials,software,and other technologies have very important roles in improving AMOLED performance while lowering costs.However,this report mainly focuses on manufacturing related topics.This report includes an introduction to AMOLED manufacturing,b

9、ackground information for each technology,and a detailed glossary of terms.However,this report was written with the assumption that readers have some background and understanding of the topics analyzed.Research for this report is based on:Direct interviews of companies that participate in the AMOLED

10、 supply chain.Publicly available information such as websites,technical papers,specification sheets,company presentations,news articles,etc.Original DisplaySearch modeling,analysis,and reporting.A high percentage of graphics were produced by DisplaySearch specifically for this report.Graphics taken

11、from other sources are attributed when source information is available.All analysis,status,and outlook summaries as well as forecasts are based on our interpretation of researched information plus proprietary modeling and analysis.,AMOLED Process Roadmap Report,5,2.0 Executive Summary,Executive Summ

12、ary:AMOLED Market Status and Supply&Demand,Samsungs incredible success with its mobile AMOLEDs over the past several years has enabled the company to maintain the highest operating profits in the FPD industry.Samsung is still the only real player in AMOLED manufacturing and there remains an incredib

13、le amount of uncertainty about how the market will develop.DisplaySearch forecasts that AMOLED capacity will grow significantly from 2014 as AMOLED TVs ramp up and many players try to commercialize AMOLED cell phones and TVs.Demand is expected to grow in line with capacity.,AMOLED Process Roadmap Re

14、port,7,Executive Summary:AMOLED Manufacturing Technology Roadmap,To compete with TFT LCD,AMOLED still needs to both improve performance and lower costs.Backplane High resolution,high electron mobility,optimize manufacturing,etc.AMOLED process Optimize evaporation process and develop new technology t

15、o reduce cost,Manufacturing Technology Roadmap,AMOLED Process Roadmap Report,8,Executive Summary:Small/Medium AMOLED Manufacturing,Rigid type small/medium AMOLED manufacturing technology is mature at Samsung,and all other makers are trying to catch up.Both Samsung and LGD continue to find the manufa

16、cturing of unbreakable/flexible AMOLED to be challenging,but they still hope to launch phablet-sized products by the end of 2013.Resolution is becoming problematic for AMOLEDs as high-end smart phones adopt 400 ppi.Samsung has avoided the resolution problem for now by adopting PenTile pixel patterns

17、.Improving evaporation tool performance and FMM technology can enable around 300 ppi RGB patterning,and new technologies like VTechnologys AEGIS-OLED may achieve even higher.Others such as JDI and Innolux are pursuing WOLED with color filters,which are limited only by photolithography equipment so r

18、esolution can track LCDs.,Bottleneck,AMOLED Process Roadmap Report,9,Executive Summary:AMOLED TV Manufacturing,In January,LGD announced the commercial availability of its 55”WOLED priced at$13,000,and on June 27,Samsung released a 55”curved RGB AMOLED TV,now priced at$9,000.These are significant mil

19、estones,but total AMOLED TV sales are forecast to be less than 50,000 in 2013 due to high prices and the immaturity of both the manufacturing technology and market.There are a variety of approaches to AMOLED TV manufacturing,and all of them still suffer from various production issues.Samsung has ado

20、pted LTPS based RGB AMOLEDs and LGD oxide based WOLEDs.It is likely that both Samsung and LGD will go through several iterations of its current processes to enhance performance and lower costs.,AMOLED Process Roadmap Report,10,Executive Summary Color Patterning Technology Status,Color patterning is

21、the key technology for AMOLED manufacturing.FMM is currently the major technology for small/medium OLED production.A couple of years ago,LITI seemed extremely promising but is now nearly dead.WOLED is an alternative technology to RGB evaporation.It is a type of compromise technology,not ideal for pe

22、rformance,but easier to manufacture than FMM.It is applicable to very large size AMOLEDs and very high ppi small/medium AMOLEDs.Inkjet is the ultimate patterning technique but has proven difficult and challenges remain.,AMOLED Process Roadmap Report,11,Executive Summary:Encapsulation,Due to the degr

23、adation of AMOLED material by moisture and particles,OLED products demand a high sealing performance.This directly affects the lifespan and lighting performance.There are a wide variety of encapsulation approaches,but glass frit has now become the main technology for rigid mobile AMOLEDs and also ma

24、ny TVs.Frit does have issues,even for TVs.The brittle seal raises long term reliability concerns.Thin film encapsulation is the key technology for enabling unbreakable/flexible AMOLEDs,and both Samsung and LGD have proprietary approaches.Encapsulation technology is rapidly evolving and will likely c

25、ontinue to change in the future.,AMOLED Process Roadmap Report,12,Executive Summary:55”OLED TV Cost Comparison,55”AMOLEDs yields are assumed to be very low for each process step when compared with LCD,and very low for the organic light emitting layer deposition and encapsulation processes.Assume oxi

26、de WOLED yields are moderately higher than LTPS RGB yieldsIf AMOLED yields are assumed to be equivalent to a 55”LCD(cumulative yield of 88%)then WOLED costs would be 5X and RGB 10X that of a-Si at current material prices and other conditions.Total costs are highly dependent on yield rates,but materi

27、als and equipment costs are also still substantially more expensive than LCDs.Assuming greenfield fabs,depreciation costs are still high.However,many LCDs are made on fully depreciated lines,which enhances their competiveness.This is part of the reason there is so much interest in oxide TFT for AMOL

28、ED,to repurpose some of that depreciated capacity.,55”OLED TV Costs Q113 WOLED vs.RGB,AMOLED Process Roadmap Report,13,3.0 Market Trends&Manufacturing Status by Region,Current Status and Future Challenges,With the exception of Samsungs rigid AMOLEDs for smart phones,there remains an incredible amoun

29、t of uncertainty about how the market will develop.Despite the fact that LGD announced commercial availability of its 55”WOLED in early January and Samsung released a 55”curved RGB AMOLED TV on June 27.LGDs flat 55”WOLED is priced at$13,000.Samsung just lowered its 55”curved US set sales price from$

30、15,000 to$9,000 on August 13.Although yield rates are thought to be very low,Samsung cited improved yields when it lowered its price by$6,000.AMOLED TV shipments in 2013 are forecast to be no more than 50,000.In 2014,AMOLED TV are forecast to grow to more than 500,000 units and then reach 5.7 millio

31、n in 2016.Samsung and LGD continue to find the manufacturing of unbreakable/flexible AMOLED to be challenging,but they still hope to launch phablet-sized products by the end of 2013.It is unclear how and when challenges related to thin film encapsulation and the lift-off process will be overcome.If

32、they are resolved,more capacity,particularly at LGD,will be required to ramp up volume.Resolution is becoming problematic for AMOLEDs as high-end smart phones adopt 400 ppi.Improving evaporation tool performance and FMM technology can achieve around 300 ppi RGB patterning.There may be some tricks in

33、 development to achieve even higher.AMOLEDs patterned by conventional RGB FMM remain at a substantial disadvantage in the race to super high resolution mobile displays.As ppi increases there is typically a yield trade-off,and concerns about manufacturability escalate.Samsung has avoided this problem

34、 by adopting unique PenTile pixel patterns,which use only two subpixels per white pixel,which allows for larger spot sizes.Others such as Innolux and JDI are pursuing WOLED with color filters.Color filters are patterned by photolithography so resolution can track LCDs.,AMOLED Process Roadmap Report,

35、15,AMOLED Shipments,AMOLED revenues are forecast to exceed$35 billion by 2020.Mobile applications account for the majority of revenues,but TVs grow rapidly starting in 2015.Samsung dominates both in shipment and revenue share and is expected to continue to do so for at least several more years.Note,

36、the data in the graphs here include both AMOLEDs and PMOLEDs.,AMOLED Shipment Share,AMOLED Revenue Share,Long-Term Annual Revenue forecast,Source:Q213 Quarterly AMOLED Shipment and Forecast Report,80.9%,95.9%,AMOLED Process Roadmap Report,16,AMOLED Material Market Forecast by Application,Currently,m

37、ost AMOLED material revenue comes from mobile phones.As OLED TV shipments increase,TVs will lead the rise in OLED material revenue growth next year.OLED TV panel shipments will be low in 2014,but the portion for OLED TVs in OLED material revenue is expected to be substantial.A large average unit are

38、a and lower manufacturing yield account for the high share of material revenue for OLED TVs.,Source:Q213 Quarterly AMOLED Panel Cost Report,AMOLED Process Roadmap Report,17,AMOLED Manufacturing Capacity by Generation,Until 2013,most AMOLED displays were processed on smaller substrates,such as Quarte

39、r Gen 5.5 or smaller.Main OLED products are mobile displaysCapacity strongly depends on Samsung Displays capacity.After 2014,OLED capacity will increase at larger-sized generations.The main target products are TVs.,AMOLED Process Roadmap Report,18,AMOLED Supply&Demand,The AMOLED supply/demand foreca

40、st is relatively balanced throughout the forecast range.How tight 2015 and beyond turns out to be is still unclear and highly dependent on the success of AMOLED TVs.,Note:Compare yielded,glass utilized,AMOLED backend capacity to AMOLED viewable area demand.Yielded supply is quarterly summed total ca

41、pacity yield assumptions panelization assumptions.,Source:Q213 Quarterly FPD Supply/Demand and Capital Spending Report,AMOLED Process Roadmap Report,19,AMOLED Capacity Expansion Forecast by Equipment Install Date,The table below includes R&D,pilot,and mass production facilities.Backend AMOLED proces

42、s glass sizes are shown,not TFT mother glass sizes.Only 30%probability fabs are shown here(those fabs DisplaySearch judges are likely to actually come to fruition).There are many other fabs that companies say they will build,but we are not counting in our official forecast.,Source:Q213 Quarterly FPD

43、 Supply/Demand and Capital Spending Report.,AMOLED Process Roadmap Report,20,AMOLED Panel Maker Status:Korea(1/2),On January 2,2013,LGE announced the commercial availability of the“worlds first 55”WOLED TV.”It is planning to expand capacity with a new fab,M2,for AMOLED TV production.Samsungs TV expa

44、nsion plans are not yet clear.It has delayed its V1 MP line and will just rely on its V1 pilot line until it feels more confident about the market.It may also use the planned A3 Gen 6 line for some TV production.,AMOLED Process Roadmap Report,21,AMOLED Panel Maker Status:Korea(2/2),LGD announced the

45、 worlds first curved AMOLED TV in April 2013.Samsung announced sales of its curved AMOLED TV at the end of June 2013.Comparing the two TVs Panel Size:55”Resolution:FHD 1920 x 1080Manufacturing technology:LGE Oxide TFT and WOLED,SEC LTPS and RGB Radius of curvature:LGE 5m,SEC 4.5m(Smaller value has g

46、reater curvature)Design:Thickness,bezel and weight LGE:4.3 mm,left/right and top/down 11 mm and 13 mm,17.2 kgSEC:12.5 mm,left/right and top/down 13 mm and 17 mm,32.8 kg,LGE 55”Curved AMOLED TV,LGE 55”Curved AMOLED TV,AMOLED Process Roadmap Report,22,AMOLED Investment plan of Korean Makers(1/3),Samsu

47、ng still focuses on small and medium products,including flexible AMOLED.The production technology and timing for ramping up TVs are still unclear due to technical barriers such as AMOLEDs color patterning technology for large substrates.A2 lineThis line focuses on high resolution products like the G

48、alaxy S4.Due to a quick increase in mobile market demand,they have to increase capacity.Fortunately,the manufacturing technology at quarter Gen 5.5 is mature.All equipment for A2 will be moved in by the end of summer 2013,and the fab will be fully ramped up to a capacity of 138,000 substrates per mo

49、nth by the end of the year.This line will have the flexible AMOLED line.By looking at the original schedule we can see that low throughput and low barrier performance of encapsulation have delayed the production plan for flexible OLED.Currently,only 8K of capacity is dedicated to flexible.A plan for

50、 additional investment in flexible has not been confirmed yet.,AMOLED Process Roadmap Report,23,AMOLED Investment plan of Korean Makers(2/3),A3 lineEarly in Q213,before the release of the Galaxy S4,Samsung was ramping up A2 as fast as it could and pulling in its A3 plans.At one point,A3 equipment de