新能源汽车行业研究报告.ppt

《新能源汽车行业研究报告.ppt》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《新能源汽车行业研究报告.ppt（72页珍藏版）》请在三一办公上搜索。

1、,2009,8,China Kinwa-EV Trends-20090806.pptx,2,A.B.C.,1.2.3.4.5.,31551,D.,67,2008 Roland Berger Strategy Consultants GmbH,China Kinwa-EV Trends-20090806.pptx,3,A.,China Kinwa-EV Trends-20090806.pptx,OEM,+,+,(,),400 cm3CAS,+,+,/,.250 cm3/,“,China Kinwa-EV Trends-20090806.pptx,4,10,HEV,(5,),HEV,(15,),H

2、EV,(15,),HEV,HEVHEV,HEV,HEVHEVHEV,HEV,HEV,China Kinwa-EV Trends-20090806.pptx,5,1,:,2,3,/,/,/,China Kinwa-EV Trends-20090806.pptx,6,1,2,123,OEM,OEM,OEM,:,China Kinwa-EV Trends-20090806.pptx,7,2020GDP,1.000,46%,1-2010,GDP,19%,2010/20202-2020GDP 1.000GDP 1.000,46%,40,:,China Kinwa-EV Trends-20090806.p

3、ptx,8,2020,15%,1.6,0.3%,0.5%,0.7%,1.0%,1.5%,2.1%,2.9%,3.9%,4.9%,5.9%,646,19,38,58,87,131,192,274,380,507,20110.4%,20120.8%,20131.1%,20141.5%,20152.2%,20163.2%,20174.4%,20186.1%,20197.6%,20209.3%,1,016791,26,54,83,128,193,288,418,587,2011,2012,2013,2014,2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,:,China Kinwa-EV

4、Trends-20090806.pptx,9,&,HEV,EV,China Kinwa-EV Trends-20090806.pptx,10,(,10,OEM,1986-2011),1986,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,(863,),FAW Besturn B70Shanghai RoeweChangan Jiexun HEVBrilliance BS6 ISGSelf-owned Brand BSGFengxing MPV(Peri)(Hover)Kulia)A5 BSGA5 ISGVision(LaCROSSE)HVF

5、3DM(Plug IN)F6DMF3eE6Pure EV light BusPure EV PickupPure EV Mini SUV(Happy Messenger)EV sedanEV mini busADEV,HV,HV,PHEV,China Kinwa-EV Trends-20090806.pptx,11,PHEV,PHEV(PV)2008,2008 vs 20102010,(,),(,)(,),OEM,(,),China Kinwa-EV Trends-20090806.pptx,12,13,OEM,OEM,E6S18Tiggo3Riich M1,150,00070,000,200

6、8,2009,2010.,2011.,2012.,2013.,2014.,2015.,China Kinwa-EV Trends-20090806.pptx,14,OEM,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2013,2014,2015,/Saibao,EK-2,.,.,.,.,.,Lifan320Benben,.,.,.,.,.,.,China Kinwa-EV Trends-20090806.pptx,15,B.,China Kinwa-EV Trends-20090806.pptx,16,OEM,/,1,2,3,4,5,China Kinwa-EV Trends-20090

7、806.pptx,17,1(2006-2020)200713HEV EV FC,863,863,13HEV EV FC,2001 2002 2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,China Kinwa-EV Trends-20090806.pptx,1,OEM,OEM,OEM,OEM,OEMOEMOEM,China Kinwa-EV Trends-20090806.pptx,18,1,1.6100,5%,2009/1,.,2009/2,.,China Kinwa-EV Trends-20090806.pptx,19,20,13,HV,EV,Fuel cell10

8、%HV:,5%,Pure EV:Fuel Cell:,25,6,60,50,China Kinwa-EV Trends-20090806.pptx,/,21,/,5%-10%,BSG 1),10%-20%G,20%-30%G,30%-100%G,10%-20%,0.4,2.8,3.2,G,HEVPure EVFuel cell,20%-30%30%-40%40%100%100%,GGGGG,3.2GGGG,3.64.2GGG,4.24.55.06.025.0,30%,plug-in,/,/,20%-50%,50%,10%-20%,5,20,G,Hybrid vehiclePure EVFuel

9、 cell Vehicle,20%-30%30%-40%40%100%100%,78GGG,253035GG,3036425060,1)BSG:Belt-Starter-GeneratorChina Kinwa-EV Trends-20090806.pptx,2,OEM,HEV,HEVHEV,OEM,OEM,;,China Kinwa-EV Trends-20090806.pptx,22,OEM,OEM,HEV,EV,(,),(,),(,),HEV,EV,HEV,HEV,2008,2009,2010,China Kinwa-EV Trends-20090806.pptx,23,/,DC/DCH

10、EV,EV,EV/HEV,HEV,China Kinwa-EV Trends-20090806.pptx,24,PHEV,PHEV(PV)2008,2008 vs 20102010,(,),(,)(,),OEM,(,),;,China Kinwa-EV Trends-20090806.pptx,25,:,EV,EV,2025,BEPV,2015,2007,2008,2009,2010,2010,EV,F6DM(Plug-in HEV),E6,),5000,500,EV(,EVCEO,700 EV,DM,BEPV,China Kinwa-EV Trends-20090806.pptx,26,27

11、,3/,/,(),/,/,L,/,LL.,China Kinwa-EV Trends-20090806.pptx,(,28,30,(S 800/Century),(Matsushita Electric),(Panasonic EVEnergy Co.),(Aisin Seiki Co.),70s,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,80sPrius I and II,Estima,Alphard,Harrier,Highlander),Prius II,Estima,Highlander,Camry,Arth

12、ur D.Little Press Research;,China Kinwa-EV Trends-20090806.pptx,-,:,29,Prius I,Prius I,100%(1997-2003),1)Atkinson,Atkinson1),(,ECU),Prius100%ECUs)(Denso Corp.)(Aisin Seiki Co.),(,2004,Arthur D.Little Press Research;,China Kinwa-EV Trends-20090806.pptx,),(,),:,Prius,Atkinson,(2004,1),Honsha,(Panasoni

13、c)is(Matsushita),(,Kamigo,),(,),Denso,/,(,),(,Honsha,),(,),(,Honsha,),(,AW,),(,Hirose,),1)Atkinson,China Kinwa-EV Trends-20090806.pptx,30,3200-500,80%,:,China Kinwa-EV Trends-20090806.pptx,31,6%,7%,32020,2020,6%15%5%1%67%,4%17%9%4%60%,9%8%4%5%,23%,10%2%6%4%,48%,30%51%,:,China Kinwa-EV Trends-2009080

14、6.pptx,32,/,0.6,1.1,2.1,3200-500,24.63.7,53.07.813.1,:10,21.1,4.01.9 1.1 0.42011,11.21.73.05.60.82014,6.413.11.42017,29.72.42020,2.60.72011,0.40.3,7.31.23.30.72014,13.12.13.76.01.32017,3.25.59.62.82020,1),(,),:,China Kinwa-EV Trends-20090806.pptx,33,3,1,2,(,EV,),DC/DC,3,LiFePO4(,),1),:,China Kinwa-E

15、V Trends-20090806.pptx,34,3.1,-,BMS,(BMS),/,SoCBMS,BMS,(,IC),BMSSoC&SoH,China Kinwa-EV Trends-20090806.pptx,35,3.1,-,DC/DC,DC/DC,DC/DC,DC/DC,HEV,(Roewe 750)DC/DCHEV/EV,DC/DC,Schaeffler-Continental,China Kinwa-EV Trends-20090806.pptx,36,3.2,-,EV,EV,:,863,(,),OEM,:,:,1)MOST Ministry of Science and Tec

16、hnology,OEM,China Kinwa-EV Trends-20090806.pptx,37,3.2,863,-,),(,863,3,OEM,(,),Deloitte,China Kinwa-EV Trends-20090806.pptx,38,3.2,-,2,(LiFePO4),(,),(,)1),11%,6%,5%2%,40%,(,(,),),24%,20%,(LiFePO4)/(90%,),15%,/,(,(,.),),),12%,13%6%,21%,26%,1),2009,:EEI,US DoE,China Kinwa-EV Trends-20090806.pptx,39,),

17、(,/,(4.9),40,3.2,-,3,(30 mio,30 mio,50%-,),(,or 160 mio,60%,4%,2008,30%,17%,41%,:,1.538%2007,/,),/,2020,22002,x4,82008,FMC4%27%,29%28%,SQM,(2020,mio(2.2),)Mild(2.6)Full(1.9),92 mio=140.150 kto,2009:$6,600/to,2008:95k to,:DoE,Evans,FMC,SQM,Madison Avenue Research,China Kinwa-EV Trends-20090806.pptx,/

18、,(,/,(,3.2,-,30%,600-700)1),2012,volumes,+ca 60,:,475,+ca.60325,1/3,203,100%,1),I,:,II,III10000,I,)“,II”,2009,III,China Kinwa-EV Trends-20090806.pptx,41,(,(,/,),1),3.2,),-,(LiFePO4),(LiFePO4),(Li-NiCoMn),(LiMn2O4),(LiFePO4),40,(LiFePO4),2026,1528,1518,(LiFePO4),800,500,2,000,Sdchemie,AGSdchemie,500

19、to,10.000 to,1)2),50%;,:,;,China Kinwa-EV Trends-20090806.pptx,42,3.2,Li-metalpolymer,-,Li-Ionpolymer(gel),Ion,Li-,CobaltCARB,Manganoxid,Iron phosphate,Manganese spinelChina Kinwa-EV Trends-20090806.pptx,43,OEMOEM,Toyota Prius PHEV,R1e Basis Megane,MiEV,F3eChina Kinwa-EV Trends-20090806.pptx,44,45,O

20、EM,Deloitte Analysis,863,China Kinwa-EV Trends-20090806.pptx,(,2%,58%,18%,22%,25,),OEMLishen,China Kinwa-EV Trends-20090806.pptx,46,4EV,EV,EV,ID,/,China Kinwa-EV Trends-20090806.pptx,47,12,2006 5,30,;,3,000,4,10,50%,4,China Kinwa-EV Trends-20090806.pptx,48,5,),(,EVEVOEM,China Kinwa-EV Trends-2009080

21、6.pptx,49,),5EV,-,ICE(,)/EV,EUR,2010/2020,+6%40,88738,6045,6635,62417,660,-20%47,70538,22626,76110,142,12 18EV,6%,6%CO2,(ICE,3,344 0,12,000,3,344 0,4,4846,000,ICE,EURl/100 km,2010 202012,000 6,0006.5 5.5,17,600,17,600,17,600,17,600,EV,kWh/100 km,14.5,14.5,EUR/l,1.60,2.90,ICE 2010,EV 2010,ICE 2020,EV

22、 2020,EUR/kWh,0.23,0.41,China Kinwa-EV Trends-20090806.pptx,50,51,C.,China Kinwa-EV Trends-20090806.pptx,I,OEM,OEM,“,?,?,OEM,/,.,/,/,.,/,.,.,.,OEM,.,.,.,.,.,China Kinwa-EV Trends-20090806.pptx,52,OEM,(,CO2,),China Kinwa-EV Trends-20090806.pptx,53,(,5000-15000,),(,),10,(dessert zone),China Kinwa-EV T

23、rends-20090806.pptx,54,OEM,:,20%,5,000,DVD,China Kinwa-EV Trends-20090806.pptx,55,()China Kinwa-EV Trends-20090806.pptx,56,(,),90,CARB,(DB-FC),EV,FCEV,HEV,CNG,DieselChina Kinwa-EV Trends-20090806.pptx,57,),-,Prius,Prius,.AlphardEstimaCrown Sedan,NissanOEM,Crown Majesta,(,/,(,)=)+,/,(Toyota,China Kin

24、wa-EV Trends-20090806.pptx,58,(,10,),000 3002001000,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,OEM,1.5,1,+others,1.5-6,2,6,3,China Kinwa-EV Trends-20090806.pptx,59,TPIM(Inverter),Hybriddrive,Batterymodules,Batterysystems1),APM(DC DC),Prius IIIRX400h/Highlander II,.,.,.,.,.,LS600h,3,?,1,?,2,?,.,.,C

25、ambry hybridGS450hRX400h/HighlanderPrius IIPrius I,332.521,31321,222.521,4.54321,3.54321,Note:Initial estima had evolutionary dead end hybrid system&Gen 1.5 Battery1)Thermal,mounting,monitoring,etc.,China Kinwa-EV Trends-20090806.pptx,60,),(,/,China Kinwa-EV Trends-20090806.pptx,61,II2010 EUR1)15,20

26、01,200,12,000,2,000,2,750,1,440,370,430,510,E/E1),China Kinwa-EV Trends-20090806.pptx,62,(,/,),(),&EGR(,(DCT,&,),&,(,),(,),(,),),(,),(,),(,),China Kinwa-EV Trends-20090806.pptx,63,OEM,China Kinwa-EV Trends-20090806.pptx,64,1,2,(,),34,/,/,-,China Kinwa-EV Trends-20090806.pptx,65,(,),/,/,China Kinwa-E

27、V Trends-20090806.pptx,66,67,D.,China Kinwa-EV Trends-20090806.pptx,8,110,420,420,50,15,215,120,China Kinwa-EV Trends-20090806.pptx,68,(1/2),FIAT,Governo dePortugal,OEMs,(,.),China Kinwa-EV Trends-20090806.pptx,69,(2/2),OEM,12,OEMOEM,2020,14,China Kinwa-EV Trends-20090806.pptx,70,2020,2007,2008,202,China Kinwa-EV Trends-20090806.pptx,71,/,(,),/,1.212,000,/,1,200 1,000LiFePO4,X-,BMS,/,China Kinwa-EV Trends-20090806.pptx,72,