汽车行业2月跟踪报告：2月增速季节性回落 3月将恢复较快增长130222.ppt

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1、1,1,8,8,2,2013,2,3,2013,2,22,1,3,10%,8-10%,213 14,1-2,3,315%10-15%,010-S1010510120010010-60838704,2012,4.3%,1,2,20313,2013,+46.4%,+12.4%8%15%3,8%,S1010510120041010-S1010512020002,SUV+90.5%,+48.9%,+48.7%,MPV+174.8%-1.6%,010-,S101051207000115%,1.4,1,4.3+26.8%,+43.5%,+13.2%+32.2%,300,201313 14,10%,1.,2

2、013,1,1,.2012-11-14,EPS11 12E,13E,14E,PE11 12E 13E 14E,PB,2.,2013,1,600104.SH,17.14,1.83 1.91,2.18,2.43,10 10,1.70,.2012-10-16,600741.SH,10.11,1.16 1.21,1.30,1.41,9,9,8,8,1.48,3.,2012,9,601633.SH,30.38,1.13 1.87,2.40,2.92,27,16,12,10,4.22,000625.SZ,8.48,0.21 0.23,0.62,0.83,45,41,15,11,2.89,.2012-09-

3、13,600066.SH000581.SZ600104.SH,27.1942.5217.14,1.68 2.051.77 1.251.83 1.91,2.321.642.18,2.802.472.43,182410,153410,13268,11178,2.883.41.70,4.,20122012.2012-01-18,2013,2,21,1,1,2,1,2,4,1,6 1,7,9 SUV,10,11,2013,2,.1.2.3.3.4,MPVSUV,.4.5.5.6.8.8.9.9.10.1010-15%.12.12.13.14.19.1.1,35 20138 MPV,1,.2.2.3.4

4、.4.5.5.6.7,12,13,14,15,16,1 1,2,3 1,4,9,10,11,2013,2,.8.9.9.10.12.1.3.3.4,5678,1,1,11,.6.7.8.8.10.11.13,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,12,1,1,2013,2,1,1,203,8%,+46.4%,+12.4%,13,1 2,15%3,13,1,8%,2012,4.3%,2,2010,2011,2012,2013,2010,2011,2012,2013,150%,100%50%0%-50%,46%,203,196.4,+

5、51.2%,162.1,+53.9%,34.3,+0.2%,1,203.5,+46.4%,172.6,1,+48.7%12013.1,30.9,+34.8%,2013.1,203.5172.630.9,46.448.734.8,12.418.0-11.0,196.4162.134.3,51.253.939.6,10.112.40.2,SUV+90.5%,MPV SUV,1.6%,MPV+174.8%+13.2%,1,2013,2,3,MPVSUV,1,-1.6,48.946.446.243.541.932.231.515.313.2,90.5,174.8,%,4,1,15%3,+48.7%,1

6、0-15%,1-2,200,173,2010,2011,2012,2013,15010050-,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,2,2013,2,2,2013,1,%,2,034,4881,187,492,46.448.9,MPVSUV,100,189240,725197,119,174.890.5-1.6,MPV+174.8%,SUV+90.5%2013,1,+48.9%,-1.6%,3,24.3%10.7%4.2%15.7%14.6%1,20122012,1 0.90.3 3.7,0.1,2013 12013 1,74.743.3%35.830.2%,22.413.0

7、%17.414.6%,32.819.0%28.924.3%,20.411.8%18.615.7%,16.39.5%12.710.7%,5.43.2%4.94.2%,5,201335%30%25%20%15%10%5%,1,0%,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2013.1,26%,1,1,2,45,3,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,2010,2010,2010,2010,2010,2010,2010,2010,2010,2010,2010,2010,2011,2011,2011,2011,2011,2011,2011,2011,2011,2011,

8、2011,2011,2012,2012,2012,2012,2012,2012,2012,2012,2012,2012,2012,2012,2013,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,1,12,/,2013,2,6,1,706050403020100,60%50%40%30%20%10%0%,1,1,7,118.7,49%,2010,2011,2012,2013,119,1,1-1.6,61%146%4,2013,1,%,2012,1,1,57,553,46,39,4

9、06,11.62.02.53.04.0,1.62.02.53.04.0,838,082240,91845,9454,994001,187,492,6127866-100049,521,372190,40542,3573,0119320797,483,MPV,1,MPV,10,174%,2010,MPV,MPV,2010 11,MPV,2012MPV,4,2013,2,8,MPV,2010,2011,2012,2013,12.0,10.08.06.04.02.00.0,10,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,SUV,SUV,SUV,SUV,249,SUV,90.5%,2013

10、,SUV,1,SUV,2010,2011,2012,2013,30252015105-,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,19.7,1,1.6%,1.6%,1,5,2013,2,10,30,2010,2011,2012,2013,252015105-,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,1,51,+35%,+47%,16+27.4%5,1,45.5%511-2,26.7%,+35%,15%,2,15.3,1,160,018161,42621,007153,9061331,80014,118953513,361,45.5%26.7%91.0%27.4%-3.

11、6%227.3%41.0%170.0%35.0%,113.7%45.4%-16.3%21.4%-50.6%-4.2%45.7%17.5%46.5%,6.7,1,7.3+100.0%,+86.7%+7.0%,+6.6%0.6,H6,M4,C30,1,100.0%,7.350%,48.7%0.6120%,86.7%70%,6.7H6 M4 C30,19,50%,70%,6,2013,2,11,1,20,+59%,+14%,1,4.38,6,+130%,1,-11%,2013,1,%,43,79460,035140,63821,01255,78226,773107,888,1301279291858

12、074,+,100,88554,41860,45315,41155,20258,905160,01820,886159,844137,62622,59522,51116,76924,65376,25836,46918,43616,5454,605,5958575353504540302424242120151313-22-30,7,2013,2,1,+43.5%,4.3,+32.2%,+13.2%,1.4,+26.8%,2013,10%,7,1,2013,1,%,12,1,308,96343,01215,12415,59912,28922,476150,21250,9066,7477,1882

13、8,422,351328120464332421532,2010,2011,2012,2013,14121086420,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,8,1,2013,1,%,1,12,0614,6185,7825,1179,4111,258,696132-30-2-18,28111312223,8,2013,2,2013,1,%,1,1,7932,3581,01943,012,9990-213,452100,13,1,15,43.5%,25,2010,2011,2012,2013,2015105-,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,1,1.4,26

14、.8%,201314,2010,2011,2012,2013,25,00020,00015,00010,0005,000-,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,2013,2013,19,+10%,19,10%3000-500010%9,2013,2,1,4406,+23.1%,-40.1%,1,1,23%,94%158,0007,0006,0005,0004,0003,0002,0001,000,8-10%,4,406,220102012,1 220112013,-,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,3000-500030%-40%,20%,30%2013

15、,2013,4-5,2012,2,5000-6000,3000-4000,2,20132013,5,1,14-5,6.3,22%,4.5,1,7.4,+30%,1,+338%,+124%910,2013,2,2013,1,%,73,66247,40332,138,304664,10,MPVSUV,82910,9703,46626,2593,61920,64970091,282,1542218-28-37-74373,2013,1,%,628294,49818110,8921,3928,4255,2681,6414,2594,02373,6625,856101,8116,34710,0562,2

16、252,2661,601381,3773413382551249993868554343029-1-6-15-28-28-32-34,2411,5.2,6.3,8.6,2013,2,16,2010,2011,2012,2013,1210864,7.4,5.6,6.14.3,7.2,8.76.8,10.37.2,10.78.4,8.97.3,9.5,11.07.4,8.77.0,9.27.5,8.75.6,2,0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,10-15%,20%,20%6 8%SUV,6,8%,2013,8%,8%,8 10%SUV,201320%,6%1 2,15%3

17、,10%,12,2013,2,13 1411,EPS PE2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E 2010 2011 2012E 2013E,2014E,PB,600104.SH,17.14,2,035,1.25 1.83,1.91,2.18,2.43,14,9,9,8,7,1.7,600741.SH600805.SH600066.SH601633.SH000625.SZ000581.SZ600660.SH000338.SZ000550.SZ600742.SH600166.SH600686.SH000800.SZ000927.SZ002283.SZ600375.SH601799

18、.SH600704.SH300258.SZ600335.SH000887.SZ600418.SH600081.SH600006.SH002454.SZ600327.SH002594.SZ000951.SZ002355.SZ002284.SZ000572.SZ601258.SH002607.SZ600303.SH002448.SZ002406.SZ002662.SZ002126.SZ600841.SH,10.1115.748.4827.1930.3842.528.5624.8517.9419.257.228.278.654.896.308.6111.786.6816.5614.6012.108.

19、516.423.1510.024.7225.3312.6613.815.963.246.1410.594.5328.258.528.977.6513.13,279119439210908295178565166422144015087383730572586691172165282459957361754137182834255425108,0.971.010.431.220.891.970.893.391.982.700.590.531.140.190.400.660.570.630.48-0.060.520.900.520.290.730.431.071.600.370.410.230.4

20、70.430.420.880.660.460.410.16,1.161.330.211.681.131.770.762.802.172.020.410.590.130.070.361.240.700.670.570.880.500.480.440.230.740.400.590.860.460.280.200.250.510.311.070.700.510.330.24,1.211.580.232.051.871.250.791.521.791.760.620.50-0.400.030.130.460.780.590.780.901.040.450.300.030.580.250.040.07

21、0.300.270.08-0.100.520.091.300.510.600.170.23,1.301.730.622.322.401.590.891.791.831.910.680.53-0.100.050.170.540.890.640.961.190.650.570.330.050.620.280.190.200.330.320.060.070.560.121.570.590.660.230.25,1.412.150.832.802.922.121.012.122.092.050.460.570.000.070.230.611.020.711.181.520.700.710.360.07

22、0.670.310.310.230.350.360.070.100.610.141.890.640.730.310.28,1016202234221079712168261613211134-249239121114112483714141325113213191984,91241162724119810181465711771710291724181514131243153021162521152612182355,81037131634111610111217-221634819151121161219211051719633181462241-6120502217154557,89141

23、21327101410101116-8798371613101712191519631617133634219548819381814143353,7710101020812991615702714129141017121845151582553917466117321513122547,1.52.92.92.94.23.42.52.22.01.51.41.91.92.41.31.41.61.52.63.03.41.93.01.11.52.02.81.51.91.60.81.52.11.22.11.22.12.13.4,2013,2,21,13,8,2013,2,1,2013,1,%,20,8

24、8620,473,4038,(*),6H78A6 LA4 LA6CCC7Q5V2RAV4XT,9,1061,522934828,829413140,638132,16324,03326,18410,21517,27320,04511,9245,78316,7068,47516,54511,0940294,90351936,46927,0567111,5531,0405,62928,7614171,3287,668159,844141,975130,2647,880002,0221169,70724,4775,4719,2715,821,61115592989021225168451118930

25、-22-40-91-801316-9561-4051-97-6-1643021-1006-100-100-2712725835-127,14,2013,2,2013,1,%,29,072,36,GTGL8GL8NMSPOLOCROSS POLORapid750550MG6MG3MG550W5950E50MG-7MG-3MG750R350MG350MG-5W5R750,17,8732,3283,2477,8814,413160,018134,3437,92027,91715,0091312,5612,1996,41641,8514,99908,0077,4513,85721,81821,0129

26、,317532,4242,2284,081414513011,6954209,5092995381,158167100,885,18944557-41388-10018-593183-179153-37671108-97-96138-92-731087259,(,),36,0568,365,13115,8,86114,999,CX30CX20CS35,23,810195,448,-100-33,(,S40,),59,38143,79443,6717,06812,9050,241301327532-100,15,2013,2,2013,1,%,2,446,-43,S80S-MAX323F3F3

27、DMF6F0G3E6S8L3G6S6M61QQ3325A1A3M1G5QQmeB12A22B16E5MPVV5,52520,7271234,6054,45315218,4364,3573,4713,8996,70911,6117,5875,24301,5612,3442,4631,3292,47155,78245,35711,097973076,4071,0619911,07512,1163,09810,425058,90546,0702,36117,44101343,956231,5061,9288,908161090302432629,1531,130199931,-11-46-30-29

28、-491313-5-2277106223185-100-436449124-358587-121637-6811007779-100507283129-100-9461121399-88-2567-8313117297199,16,2013,2,2013,0,1,-100,%,SUVM1X5TX4GC7SC6SC3EC7EC8GX7S1I30IX35,9,0477,9381,053562,65860,45355,1375,9486,9387,5363,159805,50003,3522,38018,5161,8005,31622,51114,1383,1919,5771,3703488,025

29、22,59520,7362,3316,5791,5877,2862,9531,859107,88883,6998,4291,8984323,882001,53625,6845022,17712,3168,4273,44655,20243,152574193,-9-2-43-82357431239511-1004-10094-72416-1672-65592420197-11-227769174565-82-9370-204413845351-50-49,17,2013,2,2013,1,%,3,0475,354848,-2-46-18,K5K3K2307C2408508308C5C420730

30、08CRV,5,36715,02812,7414,1637,88754,41849,2224,5462,233201,31313,4135,4252,6997,8233,3834,3554,0125,19676,25866,206833,7312,0758,29311614,42010,45510,62916,476261518,7231,15224,6538,1706,1787211,27168315,80026,77318,799514,05012,5542,1445,4612,51310,8873,651,4958467558438-2219452510226415815267000-5

31、9-7534-85-2-21-66-10-18-6420-42-49-631448094-4459865872717676-17,18,6,2013,2,2013,1,%,2,320520520i620720520LF6430C30C50C20RV80,1,0555641911,8311004,8692,36760,03524,896007617,2386,82975379934,340,-36-18-62183312781-100-1363-57197176,2013,1,%,2012,1,12,061,11,392,4,618235,78280028,95610,0885,1172,669

32、5,0079,4116,8448,9401,2581,7932,3581,70916,78810,3811,019,9610913215964-3026104-29822-189990436432-2,2,352112,49079518,2666,1667,2962,1212,4499,5773,4597,3171,5428991,2431,19910,2197,8641,043,19,-,“,”,Analyst CertificationiiiThe analysts primarily responsible for the preparation of all or part of th

33、e research report contained herein hereby certify that:(i)the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of each such analyst about the subject securities and issuers;and(ii)no part of the analysts compensation was,is,or will be directly or indirectly,related to th

34、e specific recommendations or views expressed in thisresearch report.“”,/,(,),(1),(2)/20131,300,20%,6,300,5%,20%,2,6300,6300,300300300300300,-10%5%10%10%-10%10%10%,48,1568,8,1,100125,22,200122,518048,26,Foreign Broker-Dealer Disclosures for Distributing to the U.S.This report has been produced in it

35、s entirety by CITIC Securities Limited Company(“CITIC Securities”,regulated by the China Securities RegulatoryCommission.Securities Business License Number:Z20374000).This report is being distributed in the United States by CITIC Securities pursuant to Rule15a-6(a)(2)under the U.S.Securities Exchange Act of 1934 exclusively to“major U.S.institutional investors”as defined in Rule 15a-6 and the SEC no-action,letters thereunder.,Z20374000,1934“,”,15a-6(a)(2),15a-6,