风能的未来.ppt

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1、The Future of Wind,NARUC Staff Subcommittee on Accounting and FinanceOctober 13,2008,Dr.Lola Infante Manager,Generation Fuels and Market Analysis,The Future of Wind,Current trendsObserved DriversFuture(s)Future 1:“Improved”BAU=100 GWFuture 2:Aggressive policy=200 GWFuture 3:Revolutionary change=300+

2、GWUncertainties,The Future of Wind Current Trends,Exceeding expectations,Renewable Energy Net Generation-2007,*Includes wind,solar,biomass and other non-hydropower renewable energy sources.*Includes generation by batteries,chemicals,pitch,and purchased steam.Source:U.S.Department of Energy,Energy In

3、formation Administration,2007 data,Growth of renewable generation,Source:U.S.Department of Energy,Energy Information Administration,Growth of wind generation,Source:U.S.Department of Energy,Energy Information Administration,2008 data:Jan-June,Annual growth,Growth of Wind-Capacity,Source:Ventyx,Inc.T

4、he Velocity Suite,2008 data:As of September.All other years:as of December,Growth of Wind-Capacity,Source:Ventyx Inc.,The Velocity Suite,2008 data:As of September.All other years:as of December,Annual Capacity Additions,Annual growth,Wind capacity in the states,Source:Ventyx Inc.,The Velocity Suite,

5、Wind in the states,Source:Ventyx Inc.,The Velocity Suite;U.S.Department of Energy,Energy Information Administration,Main Actors Market Structure,Source:Ventyx Inc.,The Velocity Suite;U.S.Department of Energy,Energy Information Administration,The Future of Wind,Observed DriversPolicy State RPSPTCEcon

6、omic environment(increased cost-competitiveness)Changing climate,Wind Power Resources,Source:NREL,Wind Energy Resource Atlas of the United States,28 States&The District of Columbia,Renewable Energy Standards in the states(28+DC)create a“regulatory”demand for renewables,PTC,The PTC and other financia

7、l incentives facilitate the financing of new capacity and lower its costBut,Drivers Economic Fundamentals,Increased construction costsHigh and volatile fuel costs,Different sources,2008,Drivers Changing environment,Policy anticipation/uncertaintyUS market attractiveness,The Future of Wind,Future(s)F

8、uture 1:“Improved”BAU=100 GWFuture 2:Aggressive policy=200 GWFederal RPSExpansion of existing RPSFuture 3:Revolutionary change=300+GWPickensGoogle,Future 1 BAU“100 GW Scenario”,Which BAU scenario?Exceeding RPS Compliance,Future 1 BAU“100 GW Scenario”,Source:Ventyx Inc.,The Velocity Suite;U.S.Departm

9、ent of Energy,Energy Information AdministrationCurrent level includes projects under construction,Future 1-BAU,Source:Ventyx Inc.,The Velocity Suite;Data as of October 2008,Expected online schedule of existing wind projects,State RPS total renewable requirements by 2020=100-120 GW,Future 1:Challenge

10、s,$160 billion by 2020Transmission,Future 1:Drivers and challenges,Source:Ventyx Inc.,The Velocity Suite,data as of July 2008Includes all renewables.Operating includes projects under construction,Transmission Access for Renewable Energy,Source:Global Energy Decisions,Inc.,The Velocity Suite,Future 2

11、 Aggressive Policy“200 GW Scenario”,+20%Federal RPSExpansion of existing RPSClimate policy-driven renewable expansion,Future 2 Aggressive Policy“200 GW Scenario”,200 GW Scenario,18%by 2025*,*Based on AEO 2008 total capacity forecast,(All Renewables),Future 2 Challenges,TransmissionIntegrationManufac

12、turingREC markets,Future 3 Energy revolution“300+GW Scenario”,Pickens Plan:22+%wind penetration by 2020Google Plan:380 GW of wind by 2030,Future 3 Energy revolution“300+GW Scenario”,300+GW Scenario,28%by 2025*,*Based on AEO 2008 total capacity forecast,(All Renewables),Future 3 Energy revolution“300

13、+GW Scenario”,300+GW Scenario,3 GW,15 GW,22 GW,No experience to learn from,Future 3 Challenges and Contingencies,TransmissionIntegrationManufacturingREC markets,Technology(again)Cost(again)Economic fundamentals(again),Necessary but not sufficient anymore,The Future of Wind,Remaining UncertaintiesFin

14、ance:access to and cost of capitalPolitical and social will:how much is enough?Climate:are renewables the interim answer?Technological change:the LT future will depend on the evolution of wind(and other)technologies and cost Economic fundamentals:the evolution of other technologies,cost of fuels will remain a critical driver/barrier to wind development,Thank you!Contact information:Lola Infantelinfanteeei.org(202)508-5133,