PMP考前培训材料.ppt

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1、By Dai Lian,Page1,PMP考前培训2003.4 杭州,10/18/2002,By Dai Lian,Page2,什么是项目？PMBOK 1.2,具体目标：明确定义、现实可行的目标(clearly defined realistic objectives)。临时性或一次性（Temporary）：明确的开始与结束。独特性（Unique）：创造独特的产品、服务或结果。相关的活动并消耗资源(Interrelated activities and consume resources)。问题：项目的4个特征中最重要的2个是什么？项目与日常运营的共性与区别？,By Dai Lian,Page

2、3,项目有始有终(Temporary)开始和结束独特的(Unique)产品或服务,由人来实施受制于有限的资源需要计划、实施和控制,运营重复的(repetive)进行的(ongoing),项目与运营（Operation）的关系,By Dai Lian,Page4,渐进细化（Progressive Elaboration）PMBOK 1.2.3,是临时性与 独特性的综合。渐进：按步骤进行，稳步增加细化：仔细地将内容的细节全面展开。问题：以下哪一个不能被渐进细化？A：范围 B：风险 C：项目产品 D：项目服务,By Dai Lian,Page5,质量(Quality,Objective,requir

3、ements),成本(Cost,Budget),时间(Time,Schedule),牵一发而动全身,范围,风险,项目的三个约束条件,By Dai Lian,Page6,项目管理的定义,什么是项目管理通过使用知识、技能、工具和方法来组织、计划、实施并监控项目活动，使之满足项目需要。,源：PMBOK2000,项目管理的特点过程、管理系统、方法的集合；有效的计划和控制；是对项目、项目群、项目组合的管理；项目管理既是管理科学，也是管理艺术。,By Dai Lian,Page7,子项目（Subproject）PMBOK 1.5,项目中某一部分，在一定水平上是独立运作的时候，就称之为“子项目”。可内：Pr

4、oject team.可外：Subcontractor.以一个单独阶段或项目过程为基础。例如：根据过程分：实施人员技能分：工种技术内容分：程序自动测试。,By Dai Lian,Page8,大型项目/项目群（program）PMBOK 1.5,一组相关项目。有Ongoing operations运维例如：飞机生产出版报刊杂志单一项目就是项目群的子项目。在很多情况下可以互用。,By Dai Lian,Page9,项目组合管理（Portfolio Management）,公司战略与可用资源有机结合的一种投资管理战略。(Investment Management Strategy coordinat

5、ing organizations strategic and available resources)选择和支持某些产品生产线项目或大型项目，通过这些项目把公司战略与资源联系在一起。(Selection and support of specific product line projects and programs that link the organizations strategic plan,investments),By Dai Lian,Page10,项目管理办公室（PMO）,负责协调许多项目及不同产品交织一起的大型项目。可作为组织的一个部门。设立标准并主要负责以下事物：采购

6、、风险、WBS Dictionary绩效评估资源管理题外话：CAPMPMPAutoCAQSoftware DevelopmentPMP+3500Hr+75QuestionsPMO,By Dai Lian,Page11,项目生命周期,概念（Concept）开发（Development）实施（Implementation）结束（Termination）问题：冲突在项目生命周期中最多的阶段是？冲突在项目生命周期中次多的阶段是？必须是4个阶段吗？,By Dai Lian,Page12,时间,人员,风险&机会,开始,结束,项目干系人对项目的影响随着时间的推移变得越来越微弱。成功的概率随着时间的推移越来越

7、大每个 阶段的结束以预先定义的可交付成果为标志,风险最大影响时段,项目生命周期的特性(I),成本,By Dai Lian,Page13,项目生命周期的需要注意其他的方面,Phase end Review:又叫Phase exits,Stage gates,Kill points继续吗？Go/no go.Corrective ActionLessons learned.区别project life cycle和 product life cycle:,By Dai Lian,Page14,项目经理沟通方向及关系,项目经理,赞助人老板,项目团队,同事其他PM,顾客供应商,职能部门经理,媒体政府大众

8、,By Dai Lian,Page15,项目组织结构对项目的影响,By Dai Lian,Page16,项目管理5个过程,基本思路贯穿在项目的每一个环节,By Dai Lian,Page17,制约因素Constrains PMBOK 4.1.1.4,Applicable restriction affect the performance of the project.limit teams option on scope,staffing,schedule.问题:我们能改变制约因素吗?我们能回避制约因素吗?制约因素的几个可能的来源是什么?,By Dai Lian,Page18,假设(Assu

9、mptions)PMBOK 4.1.1.5,for planning purpose considered to be True,Real or Certain Project team frequently Identify,Document,and Validate assumptions as part of Planning Process.,By Dai Lian,Page19,项目计划与项目绩效基线 PMBOK 4.1.3.1,项目计划：Formal,approved document used to manage project execution.Change over tim

10、e.Includes a lot:项目绩效基线：Scope Time Cost Changed upon the approved changes on scope of work/deliverable.,By Dai Lian,Page20,计划实施的工具和技术 PMBOK 4.2.2,一般管理技术。产品技能和知识。（resource planning and staff acquisition）工作授权体系（Work authorization system）批准项目工作的一个正式程序，用来确保：按照恰当的时间、顺序完成工作。状态评审会 PMIS 组织程序,By Dai Lian,Pag

11、e21,计划实施-工作结果 Work Result PMBOK 4.2.3.1,定义：为完成项目所执行活动的各种结果。（Outcomes of activities performed to accomplish the project.）提供如下信息：Deliverables 哪个完成，哪个没有 Quality standard 满足程度如何 Cost incurred/Committed(源自绩效报告)Can be Tangible or Intangible,But always Measurable.,By Dai Lian,Page22,计划实施变更请求 Change Request

12、 PMBOK 4.2.3.2,通常在项目工作完成时被识别。例如:对范围、成本、进度的变更申请。多种形式：oral/written,direct/indirect,externally/internally initiated,legal/optional 但是，必须是正式的（Formal）,By Dai Lian,Page23,集成变更控制 PMBOK 4.3(Integrated Change Controls),关心的是：对引起变更的因素施加影响，以保证这些变更是征得同意的。确定变更已经发生。当变更实际发生时进行管理。注意：以上3条适用于具体变更控制过程，如：Scope,cost,time

13、 要做的是：维护performance measurement baseline完整性 确保product scope的变更在Project scope中反映 协调各知识领域的变更。通过：拒绝新的变更。批准变更并修订项目基线。,By Dai Lian,Page24,变更控制系统 PMBOK 4.3.2.1(Change Control System),由以下内容组成：正式、文档化的程序。包括正式项目文件变更的步骤。规定如何对项目绩效进行监督和评估。包括：文书工作（Paperwork）跟踪制度和流程（Tracking systems and processes）授权变更所需的批准级别（Appro

14、val level necessary for authorizing changes）控制小组（CCB,ERB,TRB,TAB）“自动”批准变更,By Dai Lian,Page25,配置管理 PMBOK 4.3.2.1（Configuration Management）,任何文档化的程序，用于对以下方面进行技术和行政的指挥与监督：识别工作项或系统的物理特性和功能特征，并形成文档。控制这些特征的任何变更。记录并报告这些变更及实施状态。审计这些工作项和系统以证实其与需求一致。很多领域是变更控制系统的子集。也可能指对变更进行的任何系统的管理。不能“自动”批准变更,By Dai Lian,Page

15、26,产品描述 Product Description PMBOK 5.1.1.1,把项目将要创造的产品或服务的特征编制成文档。应将产品或服务与商业需求或其他导致项目产生原因之间的关系编制成文档。可以随项目的进行渐进细化。在项目初期,be less detail/high level,然后但是,又要 detailed enough for project planning当Seller按照与Buyer订立的Contract执行时，最初的产品描述一般由Buyer提供。,By Dai Lian,Page27,项目选择方法 PMBOK 5.1.2.1 Project Selection Method

16、,方法：效益测量法（Benefit measurement methods）Economic Model,scoring model,约束优化法（Constrained optimization methods)Mathematical Model,决策模型 Decision Model:General Techniques(decision trees,forced choice)Specific Techniques(Analytic Hierarchy Process,Logical Framework Analysis,)Apply complex project selection

17、criteria in a Sophisticated modeseparate project phase(Feasibility Study phase),Decision Model,By Dai Lian,Page28,赢利能力的计算（Profitability Calculation）,投资报酬率(ROI)=Operating income/Investment现值(PV)=FV/(1+r)n净现值(NPV)内部收益率(IRR)使投资现值之和等于收入现值之和的折现率。回收期（Payback period）,By Dai Lian,Page29,项目章程 Project Charter

18、 PMBOK 5.1.3.1,定义：A document that formally authorizes a project.内容：Officially establishes the project.Assign the project manager and authorizes the use of organizations resources to accomplish project activities.Provides a general description of project objective and business reason for project.问题：以

19、下哪个是销售方（seller）的项目章程？Contract3.Statement of requirement Scope statement4.Statement of Objective,By Dai Lian,Page30,项目经理的指派 PMBOK 5.1.3.2 Project Managers Assignment,项目可行，越早越好。最迟不得晚于Execution.Preferable早于项目计划编制完成前。问题：以上哪个最好？One answering principle,only choose the best fit answer.,By Dai Lian,Page31,范

20、围说明 Scope Statement PMBOK 5.1.3.1,Provides a documented basis forMaking future project decisionConfirming or developing common understanding of project scope among the stakeholders.Will be revised or refined to reflect approved scope changes.Includes or reference to:项目论证（Project justification）Busine

21、ss needs;a basis for tradeoffs.Projects product product description(5.1.1.1)Project deliverables a list of summary level Sub-products.Project objectives quantifiable criteria to measure successat least:Cost Schedule Quality,SMART Objective,By Dai Lian,Page32,Involves subdividing the major project de

22、liverables or sub-deliverables smallermore manageable unitsUntil sufficient detailed defined deliverables toSupport developing Activity.,分解 Decomposition PMBOK 5.2.2.2,Step 1:识别主要可交付成果 Identify major deliverables,Step 2:Decide if adequate cost and duration estimate can be developed,Step 3:Identify c

23、onstituent components(组成元素),Step 4:Verify the correctness,By Dai Lian,Page33,工作分解结构 WBS PMBOK 5.3.3.1,面向可交付成果而对项目元素的分组，它组织并定义了整个项目范围。Deliverable-oriented,Not activity oriented.Work not in WBS is outside scope of project.Unique identifier Code of accountWork package Lowest level item of WBS Can be de

24、composed in a Subproject WBS.some books:80 hours.WBS dictionary:work component descriptions.typically include:work package,schedule dates,Cost budget,staff assignment,By Dai Lian,Page34,工作分解结构与其他结构的区别 PMBOK 5.3.3.1,CWBS(Contractual WBS)：合同工作分解结构定义卖方提供给买方报告的层次，不如WBS详细。OBS(Organization breakdown struc

25、ture)：组织分解结构显示工作被分配到组织单元。RBS(Resource breakdown structure)：资源分解结构OBS的一种变异，将工作元素分配到个人。BOM(Bill of Material)：材料清单制造产品所需零部件等的分级层次。PBS(Project breakdown Structure)：项目分解结构即WBS，用于某些将BOM称为WBS的领域。,By Dai Lian,Page35,范围核实 Scope Verification PMBOK 5.4,是项目干系人正式接受（Formal Acceptance）项目的过程。需要审查Deliverables和Work r

26、esults，以确保正确圆满完成。项目提前终止，则应对项目完成程度建立文档。注意区别：范围核实与质量控制。范围核实：关心工作结果的“接受Acceptance”质量控制：关心工作结果的“正确性Correctness”Inspection=Review,product reviews,audits,walkthrough,By Dai Lian,Page36,变更申请 Change Request PMBOK 5.5.1.3,多种形式：oral/written,direct/indirect,externally/internally initiated,legal/optional但是，必须是正

27、式的（Formal）引起变更申请的原因：外部事件定义Product scope 时的错误或遗漏（error/omission）定义Project scope 时的错误或遗漏（error/omission）Value-adding change(尤其在Optional时)Riskcontingency plan or workaround plan.(11.6.3.3),By Dai Lian,Page37,Activity Definition 活动定义 PMBOK 6.1,分解(Decomposition 6.1.2.1)：将工作包细分为：更小、更易于管理的活动（Activity）。与范围定

28、义中分解的区别:Output 不同：deliverable/activity.活动清单（6.1.3.1）项目执行的所有活动。WBS的延伸。每个活动要有描述。WBS更新（6.1.3.3）。又叫精细化 Refinement.,By Dai Lian,Page38,Dependencies 依赖关系 PMBOK 6.2,Mandatory 强制 Often involve physical or technological limitations(based on the nature of work being done)也叫硬逻辑，硬依赖关系。Discretionary 任意 Best prac

29、tice 软逻辑 Soft Logic:desirable and customary(based on experience)优先 Preferential:preferred or mandated by a customer(also,need of the project sponsor)External Project activity with nonproject activity.,By Dai Lian,Page39,前导图法 PMBOK 6.2.2.1 Precedence Diagramming Method,AON(Activity on Node):Node=acti

30、vity,Arrow=dependencies One time estimateLead and LagFour relationships:,TASK1,TASK2,TASK1,TASK2,TASK1,TASK2,TASK1,TASK2,By Dai Lian,Page40,箭线图法 PMBOK 6.2.2.2 Arrow Diagramming Method,AOA(Activity on Arrow)：双代号网络图，活动在箭线上。有虚拟活动Dummy Activity:一般用虚线表示,0 duration.No LagOne relationship:Finish to start,A

31、,B,C,D,E,F,G,By Dai Lian,Page41,计划评审技术 PERT PMBOK 6.4.2.1,Three time estimate悲观值 Pessimistic最可能值 Most Likely乐观值 OptimisticWeighted Average=(Optimistic+4*Most likely+Pessimistic)/6Standard deviation(标准差)=(Pessimistic-Optimistic)/6,Beta Distribution,Most Likely,PERT Weighted Average,By Dai Lian,Page42

32、,关键路径法 CPM PMBOK 6.4.2.1,One time estimate Most likelyCalculate forward pass&backward passFloat/Slack 时差Free float=Early Finish-Early start of successor activity(不影响任何紧随活动的ES。)Total Float=Early finish Late finish(不影响项目完工日期。)Critical PathLongestShortestZero,By Dai Lian,Page43,条件图法 PMBOK 6.2.2.3 Condi

33、tional Diagramming Method,GERT：图形评审技术允许回路（LOOP，如：重复多次进行一项测试）或条件分枝（Conditional branches，如：只有当检测出错误时才进行设计更新）的存在，这是PDM和ADM所不允许的。Conditional and probabilistic treatmentSystem Dynamics Models：系统动态模型,By Dai Lian,Page44,工期=7Task A,ES,EF,LS,LF,工期=6Task C,ES,EF,LS,LF,工期=3Task G,ES,EF,LS,LF,工期=3Task B,ES,EF,L

34、S,LF,工期=3Task D,ES,EF,LS,LF,工期=2Task F,ES,EF,LS,LF,工期=3Task E,ES,EF,LS,LF,工期=2Task H,ES,EF,LS,LF,开始,结束,计算,By Dai Lian,Page45,子网络 Sub Nets Fragnets PMBOK 6.2.2.4,网络模板（Network templates）使制图过程更便捷。可包括整个项目，也可是其中一部分。网络的一部分称为：子网络。特别用于网络中有重叠或相似内容时。例如：盖楼的每一层、医药临床等。,By Dai Lian,Page46,赶工 Crashing:成本与进度的平衡/折衷。

35、（cost and schedule tradeoff）。确定如何用最小的成本获得最大的工期压缩。通常成本增加。快速跟进 Fast tracking:将前后顺序变为平行（change sequence to parallel）。通常风险增加。,工期压缩 Duration Compression PMBOK 6.4.2.2,By Dai Lian,Page47,Resource Leveling/Smoothing/Allocation:用在 resources constraint circumstances.将稀缺资源先分配到关键路径上。Allocate scare resources to

36、 the Critical Path Activities first.通常导致比最初进度更长的工期。Often result the longer duration than preliminary schedule.资源重新分配（Resource Reallocation）:用在 time constraint circumstances将资源从非关键路径上重新分配到关键路径上，以弥补已经落今后的进度，或尽可能接近原定工期。（Resources reallocated from non-critical to critical activities to bring the schedul

37、e back，or as close as possible to its originally intended overall duration.）Extend hours,weekends,multiple shifts.Increase productivity by using different technologies and machinery.,启发式资源平衡法 PMBOK 6.4.2.4 Resource Leveling Heuristics,By Dai Lian,Page48,启发式资源平衡法 PMBOK 6.4.2.4 Resource Leveling Heuri

38、stics,资源逆向分配（Reverse resource allocation scheduling）:有限或关键资源（Finite and critical resource).从项目结束时间逆推进度（Scheduled backwards from ending date）关键路径资源计划 Critical Chain resource Planning:A technique modifies the schedule to account for limited resources.Question:Add more people on a task can increase or

39、decrease the productivity?,By Dai Lian,Page49,进度更新 Schedule Updates PMBOK 6.5.3.1,更新 Update:Modification to scheduleMay or May Not require to adjustments to other aspects of project Plan.修订 Revision:Special category of Update.Change to the start and finish dates in approved project schedule.Generall

40、y in response to the scope changes or changes to estimate.重新确定基线 Rebaselining:While schedule severe delay,the original performance measurement baseline not applicableBe careful,since the historical data will be lost.,By Dai Lian,Page50,成本管理（Cost Management）,Whats cost management?Including:Initiate t

41、he projectEstimatingOrganizingControllingAnalyzingReportingForecastingTaking necessary corrective action when required.,By Dai Lian,Page51,关于成本管理的问题,成本管理的目的？确保在批准的预算内完成项目的各个过程。成本管理的方法？资源计划、成本的估算、预算、控制谁对成本在不同时间有不同的需求？管理层（实施结果，奖励与识别），买方（不同的合同类型下）针对不同的管理需要，成本有哪些类型？可控、不可控；固定、变动；直接、间接如何控制与管理变更？纠正措施？S曲线？挣

42、值？,By Dai Lian,Page52,成本估算技术（Cost Estimating Techniques）,模拟(类比)估算 Analogous Estimating“top down”;using actual costs from previous project as basis for estimate Reliable when previous projects are similar and individuals have expertise form of expert judgment参数模型 Parametric Modeling uses project char

43、acteristics in mathematical models to predict costs(e.g.building houses)Reliable when historical information is accurate,parameters are quantifiable,and model is scalable2 types:Regression analysis,Learning Curve 从下至上的估算 Bottom Up Estimating rolling up individual activities into project total smalle

44、r work activities have more accuracy 计算机工具 Computerized tools spreadsheets,software,By Dai Lian,Page53,估算的准确性(Accuracy of Estimates）,量级估算 Order of Magnitude Estimate:-25%to 75%;Without detailed data,Best guess,usually made during Initiation PhaseOther Names:guesstimates,Conceptual,Preliminary预算估算 Bu

45、dget Estimate:-10%to 25%;More better data,usually made during the Planning phaseOther Names:Appropriation,Control,and Design确定估算 Definitive Estimate:-5%to 10%;Well defined data,usually bottom up.Other Names:Check,Lump sum,Tender,Post contract changes.,By Dai Lian,Page54,估算的准确性,Cost Estimates:量级估算Ord

46、er of Magnitude(ballpark estimate)：During initial evaluation预算估算 Budget:Used to obtain funds and project approval.确定估算 Definitive:Proposals,bid evaluation,contract change etc.,Order of Magnitude,DefinitiveEstimate,Budget Estimate,75%,-25%,25%,-10%,10%,-5%,By Dai Lian,Page55,生命周期成本（Life cycle costing

47、）,开发成本 Development cost生产成本 Production cost运维成本 Operating/Maintenance cost处置成本 Discard costDisposal cost while product passed its point of usefulness.(e.g.电池，化学品 etc.),By Dai Lian,Page56,Time Value of Money,PV=amount of payment in N years divided by(1+interest)n NPV=Sum of PV of inflow and outflowNP

48、V0,goNPV=0,considerNPV0,no goIRR=that rate of discount at which the sum of the positive present values is equal to the sum of the negative present values.OR cost equal revenue and project is a break even.,By Dai Lian,Page57,相关财务术语及概念的介绍,Accounting StandardsDistinguish Price and Cost.Present Value:va

49、lue today of future cash flowsNet Present Value:total benefits(income or revenue)less the costs.NPV is the sum of each present value of each income/revenue item Internal Rate of Return(IRR):company may select project based on highest IRRPayback Period:number of time periods it takes to recover the i

50、nvestment in the project before generating revenuesOpportunity Cost:opportunity given up by selecting one project over anotherSunk Costs:expended costs.Sunk costs should not be considered when determining to continue with a troubled projectVariable Cost:costs that change with the amount of productio