BRFBRASILFOODSSA(BRFS.N):DOMESTICMARKETWOESTOCOMPLICATETHINGSIN2H12(MAINTAINHOLD)0816.ppt
《BRFBRASILFOODSSA(BRFS.N):DOMESTICMARKETWOESTOCOMPLICATETHINGSIN2H12(MAINTAINHOLD)0816.ppt》由会员分享,可在线阅读,更多相关《BRFBRASILFOODSSA(BRFS.N):DOMESTICMARKETWOESTOCOMPLICATETHINGSIN2H12(MAINTAINHOLD)0816.ppt(13页珍藏版)》请在三一办公上搜索。
1、24,20,16,12,Stock data,869.5,Deutsche BankMarkets Research,RatingHoldGlobal Emerging MarketsBrazil,CompanyBRF-Brasil FoodsSA,Date14 August 2012Forecast Change,Food,Price at 13 Aug 2012(USD)Target price,14.5315.00,ReutersBRFS.N,BloombergBRFS US,Exchange TickerNYSBRFS,52-week range,21.46-13.70,Domesti
2、c market woes to complicatethings in 2H12(maintain Hold)Short-term earnings risk still skewed to the downside;stay on the sidelinesWe updated our BRF model to reflect disappointing 2Q12 results and the mostrecent sharp increase in feed costs in Brazil;which combined with achallenging economic outloo
3、k and added marketing expenses related to newproduct launches(meant to fill the gap left by the recent asset divestiture/brand suspension),should put additional pressure on margins in 2H12 andbeyond.The net impact of these changes was a 17%downward revision to our,Jose YordanResearch Analyst(+1)212
4、250-Rebeca Sanchez SarmientoResearch Associate(+1)212 250-Key changes,12-month price target(from$18/ADS to$15/ADS,or R$29/local share).Considering the limited upside implied in our new target,and our view that,Target price,18.00 to 15.00,-16.7%,earnings risk remains skewed to the downside,we maintai
5、n a Hold rating.2Q12 results fell short of already-bearish expectationsFor about two months,BRFs management had been warning of flat marginson a sequential basis(when the normal progression is for 2Q margins to riseversus 1Q);therefore,last nights announcement of a QoQ EBITDA margindecline of 40bps(
6、or 10bps as the company defines it)and a YoY decline of,Price/price relative,340bps should be characterized as a miss by the Street(EPS also fell short ofour estimates)and lead to further downgrades to consensus expectations.,88/10,2/11,8/11,2/12,Revision reflects 2Q12,higher costs/leverage,lower do
7、mestic volumes,new FXOur present revision reflects the 2Q12 shortfall as well as higher costs(mostlyfeed,but also marketing,labor and financial expenses),all of which shouldhave a negative impact that should only be partially offset by a weaker BRL.In our view,BRFS remains overvalued and vulnerable
8、in the short term,BRF-Brasil Foods SBOVESPA(Rebased)Performance(%)AbsoluteBOVESPA,1m4.68.8,3m-16.3-0.5,12m-21.710.6,BRF is currently trading at 11.3x 12-month estimated EBITDA,well above ourtarget multiple of 8.2x(see page 3 for derivation);thus,we expect the stock to,fall moderately in the short te
9、rm and recover some time in 1H13.Downsiderisks are:stalling global demand,a stronger BRL,higher trade barriers and/orfeed costs and disease(avian flu,H1N1,BSE).Upside risks include strength indomestic/global demand,a weaker BRL and lower trade barriers/feed costs.Forecasts And Ratios,Market cap(USDm
10、)Shares outstanding(m)ADR ratioFree float(%)Volume(13 Aug 2012),12,633.51.01002,276,300,Year End Dec 31Revenue(BRLm)EBITDA(BRLm)EBITDA margin(%)EBIT(BRLm)Net Income(BRLm)EPS(BRL)%ChangeP/E(x)EV/EBITDA(x)DPS(BRL)Dividend yield(%),2011A25,7062,70210.51,8231,3671.570.0%19.711.90.581.9,2012E28,2542,5309
11、.01,6331,3231.52-20.5%19.412.90.511.7,2013E30,6683,08510.12,1771,8782.16-19.4%13.610.80.531.8,2014E33,5154,29912.83,2882,4452.81-5.6%10.57.70.762.6,BOVESPAExchange rate(BRL/USD,59,1232.03,Source:Deutsche Bank estimates,company data_Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.All prices are those current at the end
12、 of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated.Prices are sourcedfrom local exchanges via Reuters,Bloomberg and other vendors.Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subjectcompanies.Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.Thus,investors
13、 should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.DISCLOSURES ANDANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.MICA(P)072/04/2012.,0,0,0,
14、0,0,4,14 August 2012FoodBRF-Brasil Foods SA,Model updated:14 August 2012,Fiscal year end 31-Dec,2009,2010,2011,2012E,2013E,2014E,Running the numbers,Financial Summary,Latin AmericaBrazilFoodBRF-Brasil Foods SA,DB EPS(BRL)Reported EPS(BRL)DPS(BRL)BVPS(BRL)Valuation MetricsPrice/Sales(x),0.270.400.372
15、2.250.5,0.920.920.1815.650.9,1.571.570.5816.161.0,1.521.520.5116.840.9,2.162.160.5317.580.8,2.812.810.7617.580.8,Reuters:BRFS.NHoldPrice(13 Aug 12)Target Price52 Week rangeMarket Cap(m),Bloomberg:BRFS USUSD 14.53USD 15.00USD 13.70-21.46EURm 10,228,P/E(DB)(x)P/E(Reported)(x)P/BV(x)FCF yield(%)Dividen
16、d yield(%)EV/SalesEV/EBITDAEV/EBIT,72.348.51.00.71.90.816.3105.4,26.326.31.87.30.71.110.816.9,19.719.72.30.21.91.311.917.7,19.419.41.8nm1.71.212.920.0,13.613.61.71.01.81.110.815.3,10.510.51.74.72.61.07.710.1,USDm 12,633,Income Statement(BRLm),Company ProfileBRF-Brasil Foods SA is one of the largest
17、Latin Americanfood companies and one of the worlds largest meatprocessors,exporting to over 110 countries.The companyresulted from the merger of Sadia and Perdigao.Itsproduct mix has over 3,000 items(SKUs),including poultryand pork meats(both in natural and processed products),as well as beef,margar
18、ine and dairy products.Brasil Foodsowns several industrial units throughout Brazil(includingmeat plants,soybean crushing plants and dairy-processed,SalesEBITDAEBITPre-tax profitNet incomeCash Flow(BRLm)Cash flow from operationsNet CapexFree cash flow,20,937992153741234767-69374,22,6812,3211,4801,001
19、8042,244-6981,546,25,7062,7021,8231,5221,3671,183-1,12557,28,2542,5301,6331,5761,3231,029-1,860-830,30,6683,0852,1772,3571,8782,019-1,762257,33,5154,2993,2883,1722,4452,973-1,7581,215,and dessert product units).,Equity raised/(bought back),5,290,Price Performance24201612,Dividends paidNet inc/(dec)i
20、n borrowingsOther investing/financing cash flowsNet cash flowChange in working capitalBalance Sheet(BRLm)Cash and cash equivalents,-116-4,859-2851046554,244,-153-1,853-441-901593,343,-502392-551-604-6302,740,-4401,391-466-345-8702,394,-1,203-519-188-1,653-443741,-657-56580-418741,8Aug 10,Feb 11,Aug
21、11,Feb 12,Property,plant&equipmentGoodwill,8,8740,9,0670,9,7980,10,8900,11,9910,11,9910,BRF-Brasil Foods SAMargin Trends16128,BOVESPA(Rebased),Other assetsTotal assetsDebtOther liabilitiesTotal liabilitiesTotal shareholders equityNet debt,15,26628,3849,0566,33215,38812,9964,812,15,34227,7527,2036,91
22、214,11513,6373,860,17,44629,9838,0547,82015,87414,1105,314,18,83832,1239,4168,01917,43414,6897,021,19,68632,4188,4928,59317,08515,3347,751,19,68632,4188,4928,59317,08515,3347,751,Key Company Metrics,0,09,10,11,12E,13E,14E,Sales growth(%)DB EPS growth(%),-5.4na,8.3243.6,13.370.5,9.9-3.2,8.541.9,9.330
23、.2,EBITDA MarginGrowth&Profitability151050,EBIT Margin,201510,Payout ratio(%)EBITDA Margin(%)EBIT Margin(%)ROE(%)Net debt/equity(%)Net interest cover(x),92.54.70.72.737.00.1,19.110.26.56.028.34.7,36.710.57.19.937.77.4,33.29.05.89.247.85.1,24.710.17.112.650.54.3,26.912.89.816.050.57.0,-5,5,DuPont Ana
24、lysis,-10,0,EBIT margin(%),0.7,6.5,7.1,5.8,7.1,9.8,09,10,11,12E,13E,14E,x Asset turnover(x),0.8,0.8,0.9,0.9,1.0,1.0,x Financial cost ratio(x),-9.2,0.8,0.9,0.8,0.8,0.9,Solvency605040302010,Sales growth(LHS),ROE(RHS),8642,x Tax and other effects(x)=ROA(post tax)(%)x Financial leverage(x)=ROE(%)annual
25、growth(%)x NTA/share(avg)(x)=Reported EPSannual growth(%),-0.20.93.02.7na15.00.40na,0.72.92.16.0126.515.30.92130.8,0.94.72.19.963.415.91.5770.1,1.04.32.29.2-6.616.51.52-3.1,1.15.82.212.636.217.22.1641.9,0.97.52.116.027.417.62.8130.2,0,0,Source:Company data,Deutsche Bank estimates,09,10,11,12E,13E,14
- 配套讲稿:
如PPT文件的首页显示word图标,表示该PPT已包含配套word讲稿。双击word图标可打开word文档。
- 特殊限制:
部分文档作品中含有的国旗、国徽等图片,仅作为作品整体效果示例展示,禁止商用。设计者仅对作品中独创性部分享有著作权。
- 关 键 词:
- BRFBRASILFOODSSA BRFS DOMESTICMARKETWOESTOCOMPLICATETHINGSIN2H12 MAINTAINHOLD 0816
![提示](https://www.31ppt.com/images/bang_tan.gif)
链接地址:https://www.31ppt.com/p-2930536.html