纺织服饰行业1月跟踪报告：整体平淡局部亮点0125.ppt

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1、12-01,12-02,12-03,12-04,12-05,12-06,12-07,12-08,12-09,12-10,12-11,12-12,/,/,2013,1,2013,1,24,2012,18%,201116%,6.22011,4.5,19%,12,15%,2012,2013,021-6876 S1010510120059,2.8%,2011,17.2,2012,2000,0755-2383,S1010511040003,30%,300,19286,0.1%,20%10%0%,201210,2013,20%-1%,201114%-20%,25,-10%-20%-30%,2012Q1,2

2、0,15,50%-60%30%-50%,1.,2013,2.,3.,15%,2013,15,PE,2013,10%,13P/E=1513P/E=13,1,48-49,2013,13,PE,2,2012-12-242013,.2012-12-12,11N,EPS12E,13E,14E,11N,PE12E,13E,14E,PEG,3,2012.2012-10-7,42.70,1.09,1.65,2.19,2.90,39,26,19,15,0.79,4,2012,7,24.3015.98,0.600.30,0.940.48,1.300.72,1.881.01,4053,2633,1922,1316,

3、0.630.74,.2012-7-27,4.7518.0215.9119.9945.79,0.200.820.891.142.66,0.271.131.171.282.67,0.351.411.251.552.90,0.441.751.611.863.70,2322181817,1816141617,1413131316,1110101112,0.640.650.780.760.97,56,2012.2012-06-272012 5.,.2012-05-21,5.3222.60,0.641.40,0.681.48,0.761.59,0.911.71,816,815,714,613,0.461.

4、90,2013,1,23,2012,2012,5,8,2013,1,.1.1,2013Q12013Q1201320122013,.3.5.5.8.9.9.10.10.10.11,.11.11.11.13.13.14,1 2010-20122 2010-2012.12,.1.1,3 2011,4,-2012,12,50,100,.1,4 2012,1-12,50,.1,.2,67,20102010,20112011,20122012,.3.3,2010 2011,2012,.3,9 2008-2012.1110 1999-2012,.4.5,11 2012,1-12,.5,12 201113 2

5、012.1-11,2012,1-11,.62011.1-11.6,328,328,22,23,A,PE,1,6,7,2013,1,14 2011-2013.1.15 2010-2013.116 2010-2013.1.2017 2011-201301,.6.6.6.6,18 2011 2012H19 2011 2012H20 2011 2012H21 2011 2012H,20122012201220122010-2012,1-111-111-111-11,.7.7.7.7.7,.8,24 2012,1,-2013,1,.8,25 1995/199626 1995/1996,-2012/201

6、3-2012/2013,.9.9,27 201328 201329 201330 201331 201332 2004-20112011-2013,.12.12.12.12.13.13.4,2345,2012201320122013,2011,201220112012,.9.10.10.11,.14.14,2010Q1,2010Q2,2010Q3,2010Q4,2011Q1,2011Q2,2011Q3,2011Q4,2012Q1,2012Q2,2012Q3,2012Q4,1102,1104,1106,1108,1110,1112,1202,1204,1206,1208,1210,1212,4,

7、5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,1-2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,3,4,5,6,7,8,1-2,9,10,11,12,1,2,2013,12012,2012,2011,6.2,18%2012,19%,3.6,18.4%,12,16.4%,2011,4.5,30%25%,2010-2012,19.8%,25%23%20%,2010-2012.12,20%15%,19.6%14.6%,18.4%,18%15%,18%,13%,10%,Wind,10%,Wind,2012,50,100,10%,12.3%,18%,11,3,2011,4,-2012,12,50,100,4

8、,2012,1-12,50,35%,50,100,12,%,10%,30%25%,1086,20%15%10%5%,Wind,16.4%10.1%8.7%,420-2-4-6,Wind,4.7%,1,2013,1,20122012-12-12,2012,2013,535%30%25%20%15%10%5%,201220122013,/,2013,(,),/,2011,10-20,2012,2012Q1,2012Q2,2012Q3,2012Q4,2013Q1,2013Q2,2013Q3,2013Q4,2012,25%,20%,2011,25,2013,2012,2010,2011,2012,20

9、122,2013,1,6,2010,2011,2012,3210,2010Q3,2011Q3,2012Q3,7,2010,2011,2012,42363024181260,2010Q3,2011Q3,2012Q3,8,2010,2011,2012,%,2010Q3,2011Q3,2012Q3,3226201482-4-10-162013Q13,0802,0805,0808,0811,0902,0905,0908,0911,1002,1005,1008,1011,1102,1105,1108,1111,1202,1205,1208,1211,2013,1,12,2013,15%,9 2008-2

10、012.11115,110,109.4,201298.6,11105.1 109.42012 5,105100,105.1,9598.690,2013,wind,2013,2,10,2012,2013,2012,9,201335%2013,10%,1,2013920122011-2013,2013,20122013,2012,2012,2011,2011,2012,2012,2013,20%15%-,30%+30%+-,30%30%30%,25%-30%30%20%,10%-15%15%0%-10%,-,8%-10%80%,90%50%60%,26.5%-66%70%-,28%34%,-93%

11、70%-,28.5%-66%60%50%30%,16%11.5%-60.65%60%-30%+,-10%-50.5%40%-26%,LILANZL2,9%17%-10%-15%-,85%-90%90%90%25%90%,30%+,60%,10%-20%,25%,70%+,35%30%+-,55%44%-,40%40%+20%-30%,25%-30%N/A20%,20%-,-,75%-55%,-,-,30%,20%,-,-,-,90%,4,2013,12012,2009,2012,958,1592,1.2%,3.9%,20112011201215.5%,21.717.2,14.514.5 0.6

12、,20008.3,200910 11 12,2.8%20.5%4%,10 1999-2012,11 2012,1-12,260024002200200018001600140012001000800600400,30%20%10%0%-10%,20%10%0%-10%-20%-30%-40%-50%-60%,8.4%-9.4%,2012,2012,1-11,2.9PCT,26%,20120.2 0.4 0.95,0.3PCT,15.4%3.5%3.5%2.7%,0.16 1.13 0.35 0.3PCT,10.8%4%2.3%,1.9%,5,1101,1103,1105,1107,1109,1

13、111,1201,1203,1205,1207,1209,1211,1301,1011,1101,1103,1105,1107,1109,1111,1201,1203,1205,1207,1209,1211,1301,1101,1103,1105,1107,1109,1111,1201,1203,1205,1207,1209,1211,1301,1001,1003,1005,1007,1009,1011,1101,1103,1105,1107,1109,1111,1201,1203,1205,1207,1209,1211,1301,/,2013,1,12 2011,2012,1-11,13 2

14、012.1-11,2011.1-11,6.9,17.06.7,16.9,2.22.1,42.6,44.6,2012.1-112011.1-11.,1.92.32.73.13.53.5,2011.1-11,2012.1-11,4.06.3,23.2,26.2,5.5,10.8,15.4,%,6.1,0,5,10,15,20,2012,17,2011,20113282012,2011,2012,20111-11,14110%100%,2011-2013.1.,328328,156000,2010-2013.1,90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%-30%-40

15、%,400020000(2000)(4000)(6000)(8000)(10000)(12000)(14000),16 2010-2013.1.20,17,2011-201301328,32865/35(32s),(32s),350003000025000,/,410003800035000,/,32000,20000,29000,15000100005000,14,45011,600,26000230002000017000,25,90019,60019,268,wind6,2013,1,18 2011 2012H,2012,1-11,19 2011 2012H,2012,1-11,%40

16、34.03020100,2011N24.0,2012H 2012.1-1125.815.54.0 2.0,25201510,%,2011N20.59.5,2012H8.1,20.8,2012.1-11,-10-20,-14.9-15.0,-5.5-11.4-12.1,-7.6,50,3.0,0.4,20 2011 2012H,2012,1-11,21 2011 2012H,2012,1-11,2011N,2012H,2012.1-11,%,2011N,2012H,2012.1-11,20,%,16.8,0,100-10-20,9.8 10.4 9.1-7.0-9.0,6.3-3.0,3.2,2

17、.7 0.5,-2-4-6,-0.6,-2.6,-0.4,-4.2,-4.9,-30,-25.22012,2011,-8,-7.4,2012,23,2012,22,2010-2012,%,2010N,2011N,2012_3Q,6050403020100-10Awind7,1201,1202,1203,1204,1205,1206,1207,1208,1209,1210,1211,1212,1301,/,2013,1,23,%,35,2010N,2011N,2012_3Q,3025201510Awind2013Q120132012,24,2012,1,-2013,1,0%-5%-10%,65/

18、35(32s),(32s),-1.1%-5.8%,-15%-20%-25%-30%-35%wind19286,14906/2012/13,USDA,2013,1,77%,114%,8,95/96,96/97,97/98,98/99,99/00,00/01,01/02,02/03,03/04,04/05,05/06,06/07,07/08,08/09,09/10,10/11,11/12,12/13,95/96,96/97,97/98,98/99,99/00,00/01,01/02,02/03,03/04,04/05,05/06,06/07,07/08,08/09,09/10,10/11,11/1

19、2,12/13,40%,128%,120%,71%,57%48%,60%,/,2013,1,25 1995/1996,-2012/2013,26 1995/1996,-2012/2013,80%,77%,160%,139%,75%70%62%65%63%60%57%56%58%56%55%50%47%48%49%44%45%40%35%30%25%20%USDA20122012,55%51%54%49%53%50%20122012,140%114%101%97%100%86%80%83%59%50%51%59%41%40%40%31%25%20%0%USDA2012,25,25%,20%,40

20、%,201150%-55%,25%,30%,2011,15%,0%-10%,2011,40%-60%,0%-20%2012,2,2012,2012/2013/20142011,EPS,1.28/1.55/1.86,1.37/1.67/2.01,2012E EPS,2011,2012E,2011,2012E,74%37%,50%35%+,91%68%,55%+50%+,0.941.65,74%,46.70%,99%,58.90%,0.48,1,45%,5PCT,35%33%34%61%50%31%,20%25%25%30%+25%+15%,44%46%63%52%69%55%,30%35%+15

21、%35%-40%15%0%,1.161.131.300.81-0.841.202.67,-,30%,9,/,3,2013,1,2012E EPS,2011,2012E,2011,2012E,36%46%33%23%,25%+0%-5%-10%,62%22%59%22%,25%-30%-20%-30%-20%-40%-30%,1.61-1.670.540.84-0.961.10-1.28,2012Q42012Q4-2012Q4,Wind2013201315%30%,2013,2012,EPS,2012Q1,2013Q1 E,2012Q1,2013Q1 E,2012Q1,2013Q1 E,47.6

22、%36.5%73.3%,35%25%40%,35.7%53.4%105.9%,35%30%50%-70%,0.150.540.12,0.21+0.71+0.17-0.20,201320131,35%+26%+45%,5PCT,22.6%,10%,28.4%,0%,0.36,0.36,2013,25%,0%-10%,2013,10%-15%,26.2%,10%-15%,37.7%,15%,0.34,0.40,26.1%,15%,3.5%,-,0.28,-,-,57.7%,20%,46.7%,-,0.09,-,2013,15%,36.3%5.3%,-10%-15%,92.4%6.3%,-10%,0

23、.390.76,-0.68-0.76,-,25%,21.5%,20%,29.8%,20%,0.48,0.57,2013,20%,-9.9%,10%,17.7%,0.16,-,27.2%-15.8%,-,16.9%-38.7%,-10%-,0.240.24,-,-,Wind20122012,ES,2012,30%,4,2012,2011,EPS,2011N24.16%10.64%,2012E25%-20%-10%,2011N34.38%4.78%,2012E30%60%-70%,2011N0.200.45,2012E0.260.77,23.00%,10%-15%,15.42%,15%,0.68,

24、0.78,-,10,5,2013,1,EPS,2011N5.71%,2012E-10%0%,2011N-23.39%,2012E-20%,2011N0.76,2012E0.62,A,20.95%6.78%-2.33%,0%0%-15%0%,14.81%9.64%2.30%,-35%-30%-70%-60%-70%-60%,0.840.731.59,0.55-0.590.21-0.290.48-0.64,Wind201320%-30%2012,2013,2012,EPS,2012Q1,2013Q1 E,2012Q1,2013Q1 E,2012Q1,2013Q1 E,1.45%,-,41.87%,

25、20%-30%,0.04,0.05,-,A,-6.52%,0%,-44.55%,0%-10%,0.11,0.11-0.12,37.37%-4.07%-7.71%-13.34%-,-20%-10%0%-15%0%,64.43%-174.96%-36.42%-64.20%-,0%-35%-25%-50%-30%-50%-30%,0.14-0.020.070.06-,0.14-0.04-0.050.03-0.04-,-,Wind,1.,2013,2.3.5%,300,2.8%,11,300,A,2013,1,272018161412108,2013%,A,64,2.8,4.0,5.0,20Wind,

26、8.8%,2013,2011Q4,28,2013,105,%,4.0,4.3,8.8,0(5)(10)(15),-9.4Wind,-1.3,A,0.2,1.2,29,2013,30,2013,1510,%,161412,%,10,50(5)(10),wind,86420(2)(4),wind,12,361,0408,0411,0502,0505,0508,0511,0602,0605,0608,0611,0702,0705,0708,0711,0802,0805,0808,0811,0902,0905,0908,0911,1002,1005,1008,1011,1102,1105,1108,I

27、.T,1111,2013,1,10%,35.7%,IT 24.5%,23.9%,31,2013,%,4035302520151050(5)(10)Wind,1.4,2-3,2013,PE 15,13-50,2013,PE 13,32,2004-2011,PE,55453525155wind,2013,2012,15%,2013,2013,2013,15,PE,2013,2012,2013Q1,13,2013,1,2012,2013,20126,10N,11N,EPS12E,13E,14E,10N,11N,PE12E,13E,14E,PEG,PB,24.3042.7015.984.7515.91

28、18.0219.9925.729.4045.7934.708.0111.8913.8021.94,0.320.650.150.150.620.560.700.620.411.720.800.450.610.751.49,0.601.090.300.200.890.821.141.040.622.661.290.620.741.201.83,0.941.650.480.271.171.131.281.200.842.671.630.780.541.111.13,1.302.190.720.351.251.411.551.521.102.902.030.950.641.281.28,1.882.9

29、01.010.441.611.751.861.921.413.702.531.160.761.531.55,7765105312632294223274418201815,403953231822182515172713161112,262633181416162111172110221219,1919221413131317916178191117,131516111010111371214716914,0.630.790.740.640.780.650.760.810.380.970.860.461.180.711.13,3.9213.939.302.652.314.606.802.412

30、.603.894.501.311.653.361.89,A,7.064.199.895.767.2413.994.438.777.08,0.730.450.990.280.300.460.190.210.56,0.840.490.760.270.350.550.260.220.62,0.890.230.690.350.440.770.340.280.75,1.060.250.780.440.560.990.440.350.93,1.260.310.890.510.681.240.560.421.07,10910212430234113,8913212026173911,818141617181

31、3319,7171313131410258,614111111118217,0.411.131.060.810.680.670.451.390.49,1.401.171.541.341.601.751.972.581.88,Wind,2013,1,23,7,12E,EPS13E,14E,12E,PE13E,14E,PEG,1880 HK210 HK1028HK1836HK3818 HK2331 HK2020 HK1910 HK589 HK,17.4610.302.8922.601.306.217.7216.647.02,0.690.660.201.480.06-0.300.680.940.81

32、,0.820.750.251.590.060.110.521.110.92,0.950.870.321.710.070.300.531.280.94,251614152311189,21141214215615158,1812913192114137,1.240.930.441.902.24nana0.880.94,-,999 HK330 HK709 HK3998 HK891 HK,I.T,3.8211.127.522.354.84,0.380.480.460.220.33,0.350.10.520.220.37,0.430.450.580.240.42,1023161115,11111141

33、113,925131012,1.60na1.182.741.02,-,14,2013,1,12E,EPS13E,14E,12E,PE13E,14E,PEG,1234 HK1698 HK,5.321.68,0.680.25,0.760.32,0.91,87,75,6,0.46na,-,321 HK551 HK2313 HK,7.3825.5017.68,0.882.401.84,0.442.642.10,0.662.872.42,81110,17108,1197,na1.050.57,-,Bloomberg,2013,1,23,EPS,15,-,“,”,Analyst Certification

34、iiiThe analysts primarily responsible for the preparation of all or part of the research report contained herein hereby certify that:(i)theviews expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of each such analyst about the subject securities and issuers;and(ii)nopart of the

35、analysts compensation was,is,or will be directly or indirectly,related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this researchreport.,“,”,/,(,),(1),(2)/20131,300,20%,6,300,5%,20%,2,6300,6300,300300300300300,-10%5%10%10%-10%10%10%,48,1568,8,1,100125,22,200122,518048,26,Foreign Broker-Deal

36、er Disclosures for Distributing to the U.S.This report has been produced in its entirety by CITIC Securities Limited Company(“CITIC Securities”,regulated by the China Securities RegulatoryCommission.Securities Business License Number:Z20374000).This report is being distributed in the United States by CITIC Securities pursuant to Rule15a-6(a)(2)under the U.S.Securities Exchange Act of 1934 exclusively to“major U.S.institutional investors”as defined in Rule 15a-6 and the SEC no-action,letters thereunder.,Z20374000,1934“,”,15a-6(a)(2),15a-6,