建材行业1月跟踪报告：“红二月”值得期待0128.ppt

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1、1,.,2013,1,2013,1,28,11,60-70%021-S1010511020001021-,2013Low-E,GDP,FAI,021-,201328%22%Low-ELow-EA,1,2013,PCCP,2013,.2012-12-12,2013,2,2012,8,3,.2012-8-282012 7,11,12E,EPS13E,14E,11,12E,PE13E,14E,PB,ROE,.2012-7-31,19.2111.0516.0711.5910.3015.839.05,2.190.541.150.360.360.870.50,1.170.300.580.220.280.9

2、80.30,1.750.700.950.650.541.200.60,1.880.851.200.900.751.480.80,9211432291818,16372853361630,11161718191315,10131313141111,2.241.872.053.682.172.342.05,29.0312.2716.8214.478.0813.3313.62,Wind,2013-1-25,ROE,11,PB,1,2,3,4,5,6,8,10,11,12 9,13,14,2013,1,.1.1.1.1.1.1.4.8.10.10.12.16.17.17.17.18.18.19.2.2

3、.2.3.3.3,7 20129,11BJ,.4.4.4.7.8.9.10.11,15,16,17,18,19,20,21,22,23,26,27,28,30,32,33,2,3,4,/,7,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,17,2013,1,.11.11.12.12.13.13.13.13.14,24 2010-2012E25 20111 1120125 20126 20138 2003-201216,.15.15.17.17.18.18.19.19.4.5.5.6.6.7.8.8.9.9.14.15.16.16.16.19.19,2013,1,2013,GDP,FAI,Low-EA

4、,PCCP,2013,2013,2012,7.40%,2012,21.8,7.4%,12,1.82,5.4%,12,-9.6%,11,2012,9-11,11,12,1,20/2,070,20/4,070,20/6,070,20/8,070,20/0,071,20/2,071,20/3,080,20/5,080,20/7,080,20/9,080,20/1,081,20/2,090,20/4,090,20/6,090,20/8,090,20/0,091,20/2,091,21/3,000,21/5,000,21/7,000,21/9,000,21/1,001,21/2,010,21/4,010

5、,21/6,010,21/8,010,21/0,011,21/2,011,21/3,020,21/5,020,21/7,020,21/9,020,21/1,021,20-0,079,20-1,071,20-0,071,20-0,073,20-0,075,20-0,077,20-0,081,20-0,083,20-0,085,20-0,087,20-0,089,20-1,081,20-0,091,20-0,093,20-0,095,20-0,097,20-0,099,20-1,091,21-0,001,21-0,003,21-0,005,21-0,007,21-0,009,21-1,001,21

6、-0,011,21-0,013,21-0,015,21-0,017,21-0,019,21-1,011,21-0,021,21-0,023,21-0,025,21-0,027,21-0,029,21-1,021,20/0,072,20/0,074,20/0,076,20/0,078,20/1,070,20/1,072,20/0,083,20/0,085,20/0,087,20/0,089,20/1,081,20/0,092,20/0,094,20/0,096,20/0,098,20/1,090,20/1,092,21/0,003,21/0,005,21/0,007,21/0,009,21/1,

7、001,21/0,012,21/0,014,21/0,016,21/0,018,21/1,010,21/1,012,21/0,023,21/0,025,21/0,027,21/0,029,21/1,021,2013,1,1,22500200001750015000125001000075005000250002,60%50%40%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%,90008000700060005000400030002000100002012,(16%2013,),2012,80%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%,11,7.1812.4%,11,16.2%,12,2009-201

8、112,12,7031.61.49,1.4%,3.7%,2013,3.17,2012,19%,6.0%,2012,1.96,3,24000210001800015000120009000600030000,120%100%80%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%-60%,2,20/1,080,20/0,081,20/0,083,20/0,085,20/0,087,20/0,089,20/1,081,20/0,091,20/0,093,20/0,095,20/0,097,20/0,099,20/1,091,21/0,001,21/0,003,21/0,005,21/0,007,21/0,00

9、9,21/1,001,21/0,011,21/0,013,21/0,015,21/0,017,21/0,019,21/1,011,21/0,021,21/0,023,21/0,025,21/0,027,21/0,029,21/1,021,20/3,080,20/5,080,20/7,080,20/9,080,20/1,081,20/1,090,20/3,090,20/5,090,20/7,090,20/9,090,20/1,091,21/2,000,21/4,000,21/6,000,21/8,000,21/0,001,21/1,010,21/3,010,21/5,010,21/7,010,2

10、1/9,010,21/1,011,21/2,020,21/4,020,21/6,020,21/8,020,21/0,021,20-0,072,20-0,074,20-0,076,20-0,078,20-1,070,20-1,072,20-0,083,20-0,085,20-0,087,20-0,089,20-1,081,20/0,092,20/0,094,20/0,096,20/0,098,20/1,090,20/1,092,21/0,003,21/0,005,21/0,007,21/0,009,21/1,001,21/0,012,21/0,014,21/0,016,21/0,018,21/1

11、,010,21/1,012,21/0,023,21/0,025,21/0,027,21/0,029,21/1,021,(,),2013,1,4,24000210001800015000120009000600030000,250%200%150%100%50%0%-50%,2012,2012,12.5%20131-11,5185,51605200,12.5%2012201213051,5185.060.83%,2013516001400120010008006004002000618001600140012001000800600400200011,11472,8%,0.55%,11,300%

12、250%200%150%100%50%0%-50%-100%140%120%100%80%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%-60%,93,2006/01,2006/03,2006/05,2006/07,2006/09,2006/11,2007/01,2007/03,2007/05,2007/07,2007/09,2007/11,2008/01,2008/03,2008/05,2008/07,2008/09,2008/11,2009/01,2009/03,2009/05,2009/07,2009/09,2009/11,2010/01,2010/03,2010/05,2010/07,2010

13、/09,2010/11,2011/01,2011/03,2011/05,2011/07,2011/09,2011/11,2012/01,2012/03,2012/05,2012/07,2012/09,2012/11,2006/01,2006/03,2006/05,2006/09,2006/07,2006/11,2007/01,2007/03,2007/05,2007/07,2007/09,2007/11,2008/01,2008/03,2008/05,2008/07,2008/09,2008/11,2009/01,2009/03,2009/05,2009/07,2009/09,2009/11,

14、2010/01,2010/03,2010/05,2010/07,2010/09,2010/11,2011/01,2011/03,2011/05,2011/07,2011/09,2011/11,2012/01,2012/03,2012/05,2012/07,2012/09,/,/,/,2013,1,7,2012,11,/,806040200-20-40-60-8020122011,812001000800600400200,/,9250200150100500,BJ,BJ,/,Wind,2012,11,255/280/280111,280/305/300190-200,2012,20,221,5

15、0-6050-6020,280255,300280,4,3,2013,1,2012,3,40-55,1423121121111,10-2050-6545-654055-605050-6030-6020-40401020-253515-251,250190-200280270320310,280190-20030534037032010,60%2,2,1,2,28,28,1111,2,222,30-4030-4030-4015-20283550-6035-4015,112,11,23,60120,3,30%-40%,50%,%,2012.11.022012.11.092012.11.162012

16、.11.232012.11.302012.12.072012.12.142012.12.212012.12.282013.01.042013.01.112013.01.18,70.870.071.271.571.571.972.772.776.976.972.772.3,76.976.977.580.680.680.680.680.680.680.680.680.6,58.359.059.863.164.465.266.966.969.069.070.067.7,65.064.564.564.565.065.065.965.967.367.369.169.1,55.058.959.463.36

17、4.465.667.267.269.469.470.672.2,75.675.674.470.066.965.065.665.666.366.366.968.1,71.171.772.473.975.676.176.776.776.776.776.777.8,65.766.266.768.268.769.070.070.071.871.871.871.5,5,2013,1,2013.01.25,73.5,80.6,63.9,69.1,61.1,70.0,78.9,69.7,1,2012,201231,4,1.12012,2011,1,54.5%2012,201220122012,666,637

18、6301,2012201220122012201220122012201220122012,6666677788,1072342999874563474100151,22,85,2018,5,2012,11,20122012,12,11.931.5,78.2173.9,3,3,*,20122012,33,8.033.5,40.0194.4,323,2012 20202011 20182011 20202012 20182008 20182012 20182010 20152011 20202012 2018,*,20122012201220122012201220122012201220122

19、0122012,444555666666,161.020.020.553.975.338.4118.089.6228.9250.636.049.2,805.0114.8128.3336.5503.7180.3610.4562.21241.01586.9229.2309.3,5 6,6,2012,6,89.7,656.4,172117,2012 2020,2012201220122012201220122012,7777888,59.623.518.615.651.730.3,421.970.294.782.999.1333.2254.9,6,09/01,09/03,09/05,09/07,09

20、/09,09/11,10/01,10/03,10/05,10/07,10/09,10/11,11/01,11/03,11/05,11/07,11/09,11/11,12/01,12/03,12/05,12/07,12/09,12/11,2013,1,1,2,422,2012 20192007 2016,2012201220122012201220122012,88811111111,29.75.411.126.347.923.289,175.540.1357.5182.27312.4145.23707,1747.7,11027.4,10,*,5,/,4604404204003803603403

21、20300,P.C32.5,P.O42.5,20138.9%,20122013,2013,1.21.3,2,2013,1.9,6,2013,/,13020.335.8%14568.336.5%16116.337.2%,14568.336.5%16116.337.2%17664.337.9%,15922.837.2%17470.837.8%19018.838.5%,16754.147.5%18302.148.2%19850.148.9%,18302.148.2%19850.148.9%21398.149.6%,19656.648.8%21204.649.5%22752.6410.2%,20487

22、.949.2%22035.949.9%23583.9410.6%,22035.949.9%23583.9410.6%25131.9411.3%,23390.4410.5%24938.4411.2%26486.4411.9%,20-30/7,-,),),2013,1,11,2012,2013Q1,2012,2012Q42013Q1,2013Q1,7,EPS,2012E,EPS,2013Q1E,1.170.160.580.440.300.590.23,-47%-86%-50%-66%-45%-27%-66%,0.16-0.230.070.13-0.08-0.04,-33%1318%-2.48%-4

23、0%,2003-2012,10,30010,2,32,8,2003-2012,2003-2012,2003-2012,2003-2012,123456789101112,5104363364465,506747746645,9.50%48.70%-8.60%-1.90%20.70%-21.20%-17.80%17.80%-11.50%-14.00%55.60%7.80%,0.95%4.87%-0.86%-0.19%2.07%-2.12%-1.78%1.78%-1.15%-1.40%5.56%0.78%,Wind8,2100,0293,2101,0290,2101,0297,2102,0294,

24、2110,0201,2110,0208,2111,0205,2112,0202,2112,0209,2110,0215,2111,0212,2111,0219,2112,0216,2110,0223,2111,0220,2111,0227,2112,0224,2113,0221,2100,0317,2101,0314,2013,1,12,9,9 3,2013,GDP,FAI,25%,10 2211 14,100%,20%15%10%5%0%-5%9,11 28Wind,“,”,11,12E,EPS13E,14E,11,12E,PE13E,14E,PB,ROE,19.2111.0516.077.

25、4511.2711.589.1114.6810.294.988.208.50,2.190.541.150.801.201.281.281.130.670.400.680.74,1.170.300.580.600.240.440.560.160.200.250.230.07,1.750.700.950.680.570.880.500.220.250.300.290.18,1.880.851.200.770.751.150.680.350.530.330.370.28,9211499971315131212,1637281247261692532036121,1116171120131868411

26、72848,101313101510134219152230,2.241.872.051.503.293.101.281.711.271.162.201.11,29.0312.2716.8218.7443.0136.8427.7715.6118.29.9121.2211.07,Wind,2013,1,25,10123,412,13,PE80%,2013,129,210,001,210,003,210,005,210,007,210,009,211,001,210,011,210,015,210,013,210,017,200,099,200,097,210,025,200,095,200,09

27、3,200,091,211,011,210,021,210,023,210,027,210,029,211,021,201,091,210,019,2013,1,123121,212121212,2012,2012,2012,2012,12,55982814,0.90%10,2.44%,3,6.14%,2012,12,191.70,5.30%2012,2063.71,7.54%,13,800070006000500040003000200010000,25%20%15%10%5%0%-5%-10%-15%-20%,10,2010/01,2010/03,2010/05,2010/07,2010/

28、09,2010/11,2011/01,2011/03,2011/05,2011/07,2011/09,2011/11,2012/01,2012/03,2012/05,2012/07,2012/09,200,072,200,074,200,076,200,078,201,070,201,072,200,082,200,084,200,086,200,088,201,080,201,082,200,092,200,094,200,096,200,098,201,090,201,092,210,002,210,004,210,006,210,008,211,000,211,002,210,012,2

29、10,014,210,016,210,018,211,010,211,012,210,022,210,024,210,026,210,028,211,020,211,022,2012/11,2013/01,20090210,20090320,20090430,20090610,20090720,20090830,20091010,20091120,20091230,20100210,20100320,20100430,20100610,20100720,20100830,20101010,20101120,20101230,20110210,20110320,20110430,20110610

30、,20110720,20110830,20111010,20111120,20111230,20120210,20120320,20120430,20120610,20120720,20120830,20121010,20121120,20121230,2013,1,143250295026502350205017501450115015,250200150100500,2010,160%140%120%100%80%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%100,/,2012,4,65,/,2012,12,70.1916150130110907050,/,/,3.8,/,2.3,/,11,20

31、02-2,2002-8,2003-2,2003-8,2004-2,2004-8,2005-2,2005-8,2006-2,2006-8,2007-2,2007-8,2008-2,2008-8,2009-2,2009-8,2010-2,2010-8,2011-2,2011-8,2012-2,2012-8,2007-02,2007-04,2007-06,2007-08,2007-10,2007-12,2008-03,2008-05,2008-07,2008-09,2008-11,2009/02,2009/04,2009/06,2009/08,2009/10,2009/12,2010/03,2010

32、/05,2010/07,2010/09,2010/11,2011/02,2011/04,2011/06,2011/08,2011/10,2011/12,2012/03,2012/05,2012/07,2012/09,2012/11,0,2013,1,2011,7,1450,/,2-6,5100,/,2012,10%,2013,2013,2012,2013,7%,1.8%,2012,12,2013,180.99,6-8%,7.12%2013,2011,5,2012,12,1418,5.84%,2013,17,18,3500030000250002000015000100005000,(,),60

33、%50%40%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%,60%50%40%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%,20132013285,2.45,9.29,2,26,475,788420121/3),12,1,39,365,1.19,12,200,071,200,073,200,075,200,077,200,079,201,071,200,081,200,083,200,085,200,087,200,089,201,081,200,091,200,093,200,095,200,097,200,099,201,091,210,001,210,003,210,005,210,007,210,

34、009,211,001,210,011,210,013,210,015,210,017,210,019,211,011,210,021,210,023,210,025,210,027,210,029,211,021,200,071,200,073,200,075,200,077,200,079,201,071,200,081,200,083,200,085,200,087,200,089,201,081,200,091,200,093,200,095,200,097,200,099,201,091,210,001,210,003,210,005,210,007,210,009,211,001,

35、210,011,210,013,210,015,210,017,210,019,211,011,210,021,210,023,210,025,210,027,210,029,211,021,20091130,20100220,20100430,20100630,20100830,20101030,20101230,20110228,20110430,20110630,20110830,20111030,20111230,20120229,20120430,20120630,20120830,20121030,20121230,2013,1,19,20130000120000110000100

36、0009000080000,/,2012,1-11,4478,17.22%,1-11,2.67,8.88%1-11,5540,2.18%21,7006005004003002001000223500300025002000150010005000,WindWind,100%80%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%-60%-80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%-30%-40%,TN/STN,LCD,TFT-LCD,TP,LCD,displaysearch,TN-STN,TFT-LCD,13,2013,1,20122014,143325/160850/17863

37、0,LCD31530/36700/44657,20%,25%,22%,20122014,235000045000,4000035000300002500020000150001000050000,CAGR=22%,2011,2012E,2013E,2014E,displaysearch11,20112400,2012E3570,2013E5310,2014E7900,TN-STNTFT-LCDTFT-LCDLCD,1650683511184012272520%24545,1650898512912014332522%31531.528.46%,16501068014321016085023%3

38、6995.517.33%,16501208015700017863025%44657.520.71%,displaysearch2012 11,0.94,3.26,1.6,2,2013,2012 11,14400,/,2013,3200,/,1.7A,A,/,+,2011,14,/,2013,1,A,201035%,201142%,29%,27%2012,30.4%,3.4%-67.1%,2.35,24,2010-2012E,25,2011,300,000,40%,250,000200,000150,000100,00050,0000-50,000,2010,2011,2012ETCO,35%

39、30%25%20%15%10%5%0%,/,27.4%(,41.8%),2,500t/d,1,650t/d,650T/D,2012,TCO,180,23,2012/CDI,28002013,27-28,12,300MW,350,/MW 2012,201071269880176880040896528105779226700196005800,201171800114000822004789275240542521480036600200,2012E10480344800875001010524323284875(10176)(4379)(8911)15,2013,1,Low-E,Low-E,2

40、012,2015,50%,Low-E,10%,70%,Low-E20%,34.8%,30%2012,Low-E,2010,2011,2012,21.2%,13,91%,Low-E,2010226,299158,30267,99730.0%30,80021.2%,2011247,689162,70884,98134.3%41,00034.8%,2012E26600018620079,80030.0%31,80290.9%,20132013Low-EA14,11,EPS12E,13E,14E,11,PE12E,13E,14E,PB,ROE,A,8.236.38,0.570.30,0.170.18,

41、0.320.21,0.420.33,1421,4935,2631,2019,2.461.66,25.012.2,15,1,2013,1,25,A,2,TCO,2011,TCO,TCO,TCO3116,2014E,1999,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,/,2013,1,2013,212,-,2011,2,2012,2014,7,26,2012/2013/2014,EPS27,0.22/0.65/0.90,100,000,KW,KW,120%,6005004003002001000,2832012E,264

42、2013E,4262014E,4982015E,90,00080,00070,00060,00050,00040,00030,00020,00010,000-,100%80%60%40%20%0%,2013,2011,1,2011,2020,10,4,2012,PCCP,2013,17,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012E,2013E,2014E,2015E,2010/02,2010/04,2010/06,2010/08,2010/10,2010/12,2011/03,2011/05,2011/07,

43、2011/09,2011/11,2012/02,2012/04,2012/06,2012/08,2007/02,2007/04,2007/06,2007/08,2007/10,2007/12,2008/03,2008/05,2008/07,2008/09,2008/11,2009/02,2009/04,2009/06,2009/08,2009/10,2009/12,2010/03,2010/05,2010/07,2010/09,2010/11,2011/02,2011/04,2011/06,2011/08,2011/10,2011/12,2012/03,2012/05,2012/07,2012

44、/09,2013,1,EPS,9.5,2012,1.6Q1-Q2,375%2012-2013,EPS,Q10.28/0.54,),28,29,40003500300025002000150010005000,%PVC PE PPR,35302520151050,30,2012/2013/20142,EPS31,0.98/1.20/1.48,1400120010008006004002000,60%50%40%30%20%10%0%,24000180001200060000,120%100%80%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%-60%,Wind2011QE318,200801,20080

45、4,200807,200810,200901,200904,200907,200910,201001,201004,201007,201010,201101,201104,201107,201110,201201,201204,201207,201210,2013,1,2013,201332,7,2013,33,454035302520151050,70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%-10%,300250200150100500,270,20,2012,2013,2013,2013,16,11,12E,EPS13E,14E,11,12E,PE13E,14E,PB,ROE,11.59

46、10.3015.839.0519.2933.8917.3417.91,0.360.360.870.500.490.770.910.60,0.220.280.980.300.721.001.200.65,0.650.541.200.601.051.501.501.04,0.900.751.480.801.401.721.801.36,3229181839441930,5336163027341428,1819131518231217,1314111114201013,3.682.172.342.052.714.303.032.57,14.478.0813.3313.629.0336.4317.2

47、724.77,Wind,2013,1,25,172011-201412145%219,2013,1,20,-,“,”,Analyst CertificationiiiThe analysts primarily responsible for the preparation of all or part of the research report contained herein hereby certify that:(i)the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of

48、 each such analyst about the subject securities and issuers;and(ii)no part of the analysts compensation was,is,or will be directly or indirectly,related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in thisresearch report.“”,/,(,),(1),(2)/20131,300,20%,6,300,5%,20%,2,6300,6300,300300300300300,-

49、10%5%10%10%-10%10%10%,48,1568,8,1,100125,22,200122,518048,26,Foreign Broker-Dealer Disclosures for Distributing to the U.S.This report has been produced in its entirety by CITIC Securities Limited Company(“CITIC Securities”,regulated by the China Securities RegulatoryCommission.Securities Business L

50、icense Number:Z20374000).This report is being distributed in the United States by CITIC Securities pursuant to Rule15a-6(a)(2)under the U.S.Securities Exchange Act of 1934 exclusively to“major U.S.institutional investors”as defined in Rule 15a-6 and the SEC no-action,letters thereunder.,Z20374000,19