高铁网络效应量化实证分析：网络效应被夸大民航多管齐下巧应对1228.ppt

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1、,公司研究.研究报告航空机场业,2012 年 12 月 25 日,湘财证券研究所行业深度研究,网络效应被夸大，民航多管齐下巧应对2013 高铁网络效应量化实证分析投资要点：商旅需求反弹，休闲旅游放缓是 2013 年航空运输市场的主要特征,行业评级：增持近十二个月行业表现分析师：金嘉欣(8621)68634510-8056J执业证书编号：S0500511010002联系人：吴彦丰(8621)68634510-,按目前的中长期铁路规划，中国大陆的高速铁路网至少包括了 5 种类型的线路：“四纵四横”客运专线、城际铁路系统、经提速改造后原有铁路网络，在西部地区开发性铁路，以及海峡西岸铁路。“四纵四横”

2、客运专线是高铁网的核心和骨干，网络效应的形成和发挥都主要依靠“四纵四横”进行干线大客流的运送，其他高铁网络将形成外围网络，向“四纵四横”这一干线网络运送客流。“一纵一横”全线通车，2013 年高铁网络效应初步显现在 2013 年之前开通的高铁多为独立的一段一段的高铁线路，即使能形成网络也是区域内的小网络，不具规模，但随着 2012 年末 2013 年全年多条高铁的开通，京广高铁，京哈高铁，沪汉蓉高铁和杭福深高铁就将全线贯通，届时配合其他开通的单个路段的高铁，整个高铁网的雏形将初步展现，“一纵一横”将在武汉交汇，杭福深高铁和京广高铁将在深圳交汇，京哈高铁和京广高铁在北京交汇，东北，华北，华中，华

3、南，华东和川渝地区人员的快速流动成为可能。高铁网络效应被夸大，实际难以对民航造成显著分流我们首先按照国内外高铁开通后对民航分流的影响确定了分流假设表，然后将“四纵四横”高铁网上 30 个重点城市，两两组合成一个航段，去掉重复和运输量较小的航段后，一共测算了 505 个航段的分流情况。最后我们得出 2013 年高铁全网络累计分流效应为 4.65%，其中单线上与民航重合航段的分流影响为 3%左右，而由于假设的苛刻，网络效应的实际影响元不到 1.65%的水平，因此 2013 年高铁网络效应被夸大，并不会对民航造成显著的分流效果。民航多管齐下巧应对民航通过“减运力增班次“，实行”空铁联运“等方法都可以

4、利用高铁的软肋和不足来吸引对乘坐飞机有偏好的旅客以及那些由于白天繁忙只能晚上出行的旅客未来高铁的威胁从高铁车次衔接和开行车次的频率上来说，目前高铁间换乘的便利程度比起民航要差许多未来高铁要形成网络效应，必须提速，增开车次，合理安排衔接时间和列车的始发车站，唯有这样才能发挥出高铁的网络效应。民航还需做好长期与高铁竞争的准备,：,：,1 中国高铁网络类型,1.1 概述,按目前的中长期铁路规划，中国大陆的高速铁路网至少包括了 5 种类型的线路：“四纵四横”客运专线、城际铁路系统、经提速改造后原有铁路网络，在西部地区开发性铁路，以及海峡西岸铁路。,“四纵四横”客运专线：“四纵四横”客运专线是指连接直辖

5、市、省会城市及大中城市间的四条纵贯南北和四条横贯东西的长途高速铁路。在铁道部指定的中国中长期铁路规划中，到 2020 年中国的四纵四横客运专线网络全长将达到 12000 公里以上。,“四纵四横”作为整个高速铁路网的主干和核心部分，具体包括以下八条,线路,“四纵”,1.京沪高铁：北京天津济南徐州蚌埠南京上海，全长约 1318公里，设计时速为 350km/h。有蚌埠合肥的合蚌客运专线和南京杭州的宁杭客运专线为支线，设计时速为 350km/h。,2.京广深港高铁：北京石家庄郑州武汉长沙广州深圳香港，由京石高铁、石武高铁、武广高铁、广深港高铁组成，全长 2260 公里，连接华北、华中和华南地区，设计时

6、速为 350km/h。建成后将是世界上通车里程最长的高速铁路客运专线。,3.京哈客运专线：北京承德沈阳哈尔滨，并包含沈阳大连的支线,和盘锦营口的联络线。由京沈客运专线、哈大客运专线、盘营客运专线组成，全长约 1700 公里，设计时速为 350km/h。,4.杭福深高铁：杭州宁波温州福州厦门深圳，由杭甬客运专线、甬台温铁路、温福铁路、福厦铁路及厦深铁路组成，全长约 1600 公里，连接长江、珠江三角洲和东南沿海地区。其中杭甬客运专线为 350km/h 级别，其他线路为 250 km/h 时速的客货混行线。,“四横”,青太高铁：青岛济南石家庄太原。由胶济客运专线、石济客运专线及石太客运专线组成，全

7、长约 770 公里，连接华东和华北地区。全线设计时速为 200250 公里。,徐兰高铁：徐州商丘郑州洛阳西安宝鸡兰州，由郑徐客运专线、郑西客运专线、西宝客运专线、宝兰客运专线组成，全长约 1400 公里，,4,连接西北和华东地区，其中徐州至宝鸡段时速为 350 公里，宝鸡至兰州段时速为 250 公里。,沪汉蓉高铁：上海南京合肥武汉重庆成都，上海至南京段与沪宁高速铁路共线，南京至成都段由合宁铁路、合武铁路、汉宜铁路、宜万铁路宜昌至利川段、渝利铁路、遂渝铁路和达成铁路成都至遂宁段构成，全长约 1600 公里，连接西南和华东地区。全线除了宜万铁路一段因穿越喀斯特地形和神农架地区，（近期）时速仅为 1

8、60 公里，其余线路的时速均为 200250公里。远期16 宜万铁路时速提升至 200km/h。,沪昆高铁：上海杭州南昌长沙贵阳昆明，由沪杭客运专线、杭长客运专线、长昆客运专线组成，全长 2080 公里，连接华东、华中和西南地区，为 350 公里等级客运专线。,除“四纵四横”外，其他四种高铁分别是,城际铁路系统：城际客运系统是指建设于各都市圈内部，尤其是人口稠密地区（如环渤海、珠江三角洲、长江三角洲等地区）的短途高速铁路。经提速改造后原有铁路网络：经提速改造后的既有线是指通过加强技术改造和铁路枢纽建设，对现有铁路干线进行复线化、电气化以及其他一系列改造后的高速铁路，如京沪线、京广线等。在 20

9、08 年通过的中长期铁路网规划调整方案中，将对 19000 公里的既有线铁路增建二线，对 25000 公里的既有线铁路进行电气化改造。,西部地区开发性铁路：西部开发性铁路是以扩大中国西部铁路网为主，以适应西部地区的经济发展而规划建设的约 41000 公里的铁路，主要规划在四川、重庆、广西、甘肃、陕西、新疆等西部省市。由于西部地区（主要是分部在四川，重庆、广西、新疆、西藏等地）地理地质条件复杂，施工难度较大，这些铁路往往修建进度较慢，最高设计时速也较低。图 1、“四纵四横”铁路规划图,5,资料来源：WIKI,湘财证券研究所,1.2 已经开通的高铁,线路名称,长度 设计速度（km）（km/h）,动

10、工日期（年/月/日）,通车日期（年/月/日）,所属的“四纵四横”客运专线,郑西客运专线达成铁路胶济客运专线,455386363,350200250,2005/9/252005/5/12007/1/28,2010/2/6 徐兰客运专线2009/7/7 沪汉蓉客运专线2008/12/20 青太客运专线,（属京哈铁路一部,秦沈客运专线,405,250,1999/8/16,2003/10/12,分）6,福厦铁路,275,250,2005/9/30,2010/4/26 杭福深客运专线,石武客运专线,（郑州东站至武,482.7,350,2008/10/15,2012/9/28 京广深港客运专线,汉站段）,

11、石太客运专线甬台温铁路温福铁路沪杭客运专线沪宁高速铁路汉宜铁路武广客运专线,225274294158296293968,250250250350350200350,2005/6/112004/12/12005/10/12009/2/262008/7/12008/9/172005/6/23,2009/4/1 青太客运专线2009/9/28 杭福深客运专线2009/9/28 杭福深客运专线2010/10/26 沪昆客运专线2010/7/1 沪汉蓉客运专线2012/7/1 沪汉蓉客运专线2009/12/26 京广深港客运专线,广深港高速铁路,（广州南站至深,N/A,350,2008/8/20,201

12、1/12/26 京广深港客运专线,圳北站段）,宜万铁路,377 160/120,2003/12/1,2010/12/22 沪汉蓉客运专线,哈大客运专线合蚌客运专线合武铁路合宁铁路京沪高速铁路京津城际铁路,9041313571561318115,350350250250350350,2007/8/232009/1/82005/8/12005/6/112008/4/182005/7/4,2012/12/1 京哈客运专线2012/10/16 京台高速铁路2009/4/1 沪汉蓉客运专线2008/4/18 沪汉蓉客运专线2011/6/30 京沪客运专线2008/8/1,城际铁路,成灌城际铁路,65,2

13、00,2008/11/4,2010/5/10,7,昌九城际铁路长吉城际铁路海南东环铁路,131111308,250250250,2007/6/282007/5/132007/9/29,2010/9/202010/12/302010/12/30,广珠城际轨道交,117,200,2005/12/28,2011/1/7,通,茂湛铁路,103,200,2009/3/21,2011/12/1,提速后的原有铁路,龙厦铁路,171,200,2006/12/25,2012/6/29,图 1、截止今年 9 月底已经开通运营的高铁,资料来源：WIKI表 1、2012 年年末及 2013 年开通的高铁,湘财证券研究

14、所,名称渝利铁路,路段重庆-利川,所属“四纵四横”铁路网沪汉蓉客运专线,（预计）通车时间2013/12/1,8,遂渝铁路二线西宝客运专线津秦客运专线杭甬客运专线厦深铁路杭长客运专线（江西段）盘营客运专线京石客运专线石武客运专线宁杭客运专线哈大客运专线,遂宁-成都西安-宝鸡天津-秦皇岛杭州-宁波厦门-深圳盘锦-营口北京-石家庄石家庄-武汉南京-杭州哈尔滨-大连,沪汉蓉客运专线徐兰客运专线原属京哈客运专线杭福深客运专线杭福深客运专线沪昆客运专线京哈客运专线京广客运专线京广客运专线京沪客运专线京哈客运专线,2012年底2013/6/12013/5/22013/5/32013/6/42013年2013

15、/10/12012/12/12012/12/22012/12/32012/12/4,城际客运系统,名称柳南城际铁路津保铁路成绵乐铁路向莆铁路南广铁路湘贵铁路（衡阳桂林段）,路段柳州-南宁天津-保定成都-绵阳-乐山南昌-莆田南宁-广州衡阳-桂林,（预计）通车时间2013/10/12013/5/12013年上半年2013/9/12013年2012年底,2 高铁分流民航客运量实证分析2.1 分流率假设根据欧洲和日本开通高铁后对民航分流的情况，我国高铁开通后航空公司反馈的分流情况以及民航总局主要官员对高铁分流民航的评论，我们用下表的分流率来测算 2013 年高铁网络对民航客运量的分流效果。表：我国高铁

16、运行时间对民航分流的假设高铁运行时间 对民航客运量分流率,11.5,10.95,9,表,22.533.544.555.5688,0.850.650.550.350.250.150.10.070.050,2.2 数据来源和测算过程我们使用民航总局发展计划司主编的从统计看民航 2010中披露的 2009年国内各主要航段旅客运输量情况作为基础数据，用航段运输量除以 2009 年国内航线旅客总运输量得出各个航段的占比情况。之所以使用 2009 年的航段数据主要原因是为了避免 2010 年以后大量开通高铁对航段数据的影响以及2008 年金融危机期间可能发生的某些航段运输表现的失真情况。此外，2009年和

17、 2009 年之前开通的高铁多位短途铁路，如合宁（合肥-南京）铁路等，民航与之想重叠的航段并不多且运输量较小，09 年 9 月底开通的甬台温铁路和温福铁路由于开通时间较晚也不会对当年航段运输情况有重大影响。因此我们认为使用 09 年的航段数据较为合理。我们首先算出高铁运行时间，这个运行时间是指实际运行时间，即包括高铁停站等非行驶所花费的时间，对已经开通的高铁，我们使用一天不同车次运行的平均时间来作为高铁时间，对未开通的高铁，我们将同一线路上已开通高铁的有效运行速度（即考虑停站等因素后用总运行距离除以总花费时间所得出的运行速度，一般来说目前最高时速 300KM/小时的高铁线有效运行速度为2301

18、50KM、小 时，目 前 运 行 速 度 200KM/小 时 的 高 铁 线 实 际 速 度 为130150KM/小时）来测算预计花费的时间。由花费时间得到对应的分流率，对于运行时间在假设表两个时间点之间的情况，采用线性插值法计算分流率。我们将“四纵四横”高铁网上 30 个重点城市，两两组合成一个航段，去掉重复和运输量较小的航段后，一共测算了 505 个航段的分流情况，这 33 个城市,是 哈尔滨 长春,沈阳,大连,北京,天津,太原,石,家庄,济南,青岛,西安,郑州,成都,重庆,宜昌,武,汉 合肥,南京,上海,杭州,南昌,长沙,广州,深,圳,厦门,福州,温州,台州,宁波和徐州。,2013 年开

19、通的“四纵四横”高铁网络对民航相关航段分流测算10,/,/,航段,分流率,航段占比,2013 年情况 2012 年情况,2011 年情况,哈尔滨-长春,哈尔滨-沈阳大连-哈尔滨北京-哈尔滨哈尔滨-天津哈尔滨-太原哈尔滨-石家庄哈尔滨-济南哈尔滨-青岛哈尔滨-西安哈尔滨-兰州郑州-哈尔滨成都-哈尔滨重庆-哈尔滨宜昌-哈尔滨武汉-哈尔滨合肥-哈尔滨哈尔滨-南京哈尔滨-上海杭州-哈尔滨哈尔滨-南昌长沙-哈尔滨哈尔滨-贵阳哈尔滨-昆明广州-哈尔滨哈尔滨-深圳哈尔滨-厦门哈尔滨-福州哈尔滨-温州哈尔滨-台州哈尔滨-宁波哈尔滨-徐州哈尔滨合计南昌-杭州,90%37%5%5%0%5%0%0%0%0%0%0%

20、0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%,0.13%0.20%0.75%0.10%0.05%0.13%0.26%0.02%0.07%0.02%0.12%0.50%0.11%0.07%0.05%0.09%2.67%,0.11%0.07%0.04%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.23%,长沙-杭州杭州-贵阳杭州-昆明广州-杭州杭州-深圳杭州-厦门福州-杭州,5%0%0%5%5%,0.24%0.07%0.16%0.95%0.57%0.39%0.15%,0.01

21、%0.00%0.00%0.02%0.01%,0.01%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.02%0.01%,0.01%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.02%0.01%,11,杭州-温州,83%,0.03%,0.02%,0.02%,0.02%,台州-杭州宁波-杭州徐州-杭州,95%100%25%,杭州-哈尔滨长春-杭州杭州-沈阳大连-杭州,0%0%0%0%,0.11%0.08%0.21%0.18%,0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%,北京-杭州杭州-天津杭州-太原杭州-石家庄杭州-济南杭州-青岛杭州-西安,5%8%5%5%20%5%0%,1.07%0.17%0.13%0

22、.06%0.15%0.21%0.28%,0.05%0.01%0.01%0.00%0.03%0.01%0.00%,0.05%0.01%0.03%0.01%,0.00%0.00%0.00%,郑州-杭州成都-杭州重庆-杭州,0%0%0%,0.19%0.26%0.19%,0.00%0.00%0.00%,0.00%0.00%,0.00%0.00%0.00%,杭州-宜昌,5%,杭州-武汉,5%,0.26%,0.01%,0.01%,0.01%,杭州-合肥杭州-南京杭州-上海,20%78%100%,杭州合计,6.10%,0.18%,0.17%,0.07%,南京-合肥,90%,合肥-上海,50%,0.05%,0

23、.02%,0.02%,杭州-合肥南昌-合肥,20%0%,长沙-合肥合肥-贵阳合肥-昆明广州-合肥合肥-深圳合肥-厦门福州-合肥,25%0%0%5%5%0%0%,0.08%0.03%0.10%0.23%0.14%0.13%0.03%,0.02%0.00%0.00%0.01%0.01%0.00%0.00%,0.02%0.00%0.00%0.01%0.00%0.00%,0.02%0.00%0.00%0.01%0.00%0.00%0.00%,温州-合肥台州-合肥宁波-合肥徐州-合肥,5%0%9%95%,合肥-哈尔滨合肥-长春合肥-沈阳合肥-大连,0%0%0%0%,0.02%0.03%,0.00%0.0

24、0%,北京-合肥,25%,0.33%,0.08%,0.08%,12,合肥-天津,40%,0.04%,0.01%,0.01%,合肥-太原,5%,合肥-石家庄合肥-济南,5%75%,0.00%,合肥-青岛合肥-西安,5%0%,0.04%0.04%,0.00%0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,合肥-郑州,10%,成都-合肥重庆-合肥,0%0%,0.10%0.06%,0.00%0.00%,0.00%,0.00%0.00%,合肥-宜昌合肥-武汉,16%80%,合肥合计,1.44%,0.15%,0.15%,0.03%,青岛-济南西安-济南,68%5%,0.03%0.15%,0.02%0.01%,0.02

25、%,0.02%0.00%,兰州-济南郑州-济南,0%25%,成都-济南重庆-济南,0%0%,0.24%0.19%,0.00%0.00%,0.00%0.00%,宜昌-济南,0%,济南-武汉,10%,0.12%,0.01%,0.01%,合肥-济南,75%,南京-济南上海-济南杭州-济南南昌-济南长沙-济南,75%50%20%0%0%,0.06%0.29%0.15%0.04%0.16%,0.04%0.14%0.03%0.00%0.00%,0.04%0.14%0.03%,0.00%0.00%,贵阳-济南,5%,昆明-济南,0%,0.14%,0.00%,0.00%,广州-济南深圳-济南济南-厦门福州-济

26、南,0%0%0%0%,0.27%0.19%0.06%0.05%,0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%,0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%,0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%,温州-济南台州-济南宁波-济南徐州-济南,0%0%0%0%,哈尔滨-济南长春-济南沈阳-济南大连-济南,0%0%10%5%,0.13%0.07%0.14%0.13%,0.00%0.00%0.01%0.01%,北京-济南,95%,0.15%,0.14%,0.14%,济南-天津,75%,济南-太原,14%,0.03%,0.00%,0.00%,济南-石家庄,23%,13,济南合计,2.80%,0.42%,0.39

27、%,0.02%,广州-贵阳昆明-深圳昆明-厦门福州-昆明昆明-温州,00000,0.34%0.35%0.13%0.05%0.07%,00000,00000,00000,台州-昆明,0,昆明-宁波,0,0.09%,0,0,0,徐州-昆明长沙-南昌,00,南昌-贵阳南昌-昆明广州-南昌南昌-深圳南昌-厦门福州-南昌,000000,0.08%0.10%0.31%0.15%0.13%0.06%,000000,000000,000000,温州-南昌台州-南昌,00,南昌-宁波,0,0.05%,0,0,0,徐州-南昌上海-南京杭州-南京,094%78%,南昌-南京长沙-南京贵阳-南京昆明-南京广州-南京南

28、京-深圳南京-厦门福州-南京南京-温州,0%10%0%0%5%5%5%5%10%,0.10%0.25%0.04%0.17%0.57%0.34%0.20%0.19%0.03%,0.00%0.02%0.00%0.00%0.03%0.02%0.01%0.01%0.00%,0.00%0.02%0.00%0.00%0.03%0.01%0.01%0.00%,0.00%0.02%0.00%0.00%0.03%0.00%0.01%0.01%0.00%,台州-南京宁波-南京徐州-南京,25%50%40%,哈尔滨-南京长春-南京南京-沈阳大连-南京,0%0%0%0%,0.12%0.06%0.14%0.18%,0.

29、00%0.00%0.00%0.00%,北京-南京南京-天津南京-太原南京-石家庄南京-济南南京-青岛,32%55%5%0%75%9%,0.75%0.09%0.13%0.06%0.16%,0.24%0.05%0.01%0.04%0.01%,0.24%0.05%0.04%0.01%,0.00%0.00%,14,南京-西安,0%,0.23%,0.00%,0.00%,郑州-南京成都-南京重庆-南京,5%0%0%,0.06%0.25%0.25%,0.00%0.00%0.00%,0.00%0.00%,0.00%0.00%0.00%,南京-宜昌,8%,南京-武汉,37%,0.12%,0.05%,0.05%,

30、0.05%,南京-合肥,90%,南京合计,4.50%,0.49%,0.47%,0.13%,宁波-徐州哈尔滨-宁波长春-宁波,14%0%0%,宁波-沈阳大连-宁波,0%0%,0.06%0.14%,0.00%0.00%,北京-宁波宁波-天津,0%0%,0.43%0.02%,0.00%0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,宁波-太原宁波-石家庄宁波-济南,0%0%0%,宁波-青岛,0%,0.18%,0.00%,0.00%,宁波-西安宁波-郑州,0%0%,成都-宁波,0%,0.05%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,宁波-重庆宁波-宜昌,0%0%,宁波-武汉,5%,0.07%,0.00%,0.00%

31、,宁波-合肥宁波-南京宁波-上海宁波-杭州,9%50%94%100%,南昌-宁波长沙-宁波,0%0%,0.05%0.10%,0.00%0.00%,0.00%0.00%,0.00%0.00%,宁波-贵阳,0%,昆明-宁波广州-宁波宁波-深圳,0%0%0%,0.09%0.30%0.20%,0.00%0.00%0.00%,0.00%0.00%0.00%,0.00%0.00%0.00%,徐州-宁波,0%,宁波-厦门福州-宁波,7%33%,0.09%0.03%,0.01%0.01%,0.01%0.01%,0.01%0.01%,温州-宁波,97%,宁波合计,1.81%,0.02%,0.02%,0.02%,

32、西安-青岛,5%,0.16%,0.01%,0.01%,兰州-青岛,0%,郑州-青岛,5%,0.08%,0.00%,0.00%,15,成都-青岛重庆-青岛宜昌-青岛,0%0%0%,0.12%0.04%,0.00%0.00%,青岛-武汉合肥-青岛南京-青岛上海-青岛杭州-青岛南昌-青岛长沙-青岛,5%5%9%5%5%0%0%,0.17%0.04%0.16%0.76%0.21%0.05%0.11%,0.01%0.00%0.01%0.04%0.01%0.00%0.00%,0.01%0.00%0.01%0.04%0.01%0.00%,贵阳-青岛,0%,昆明-青岛广州-青岛深圳-青岛青岛-厦门,0%0%0

33、%0%,0.04%0.23%0.21%0.07%,0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%,0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%,福州-青岛,0%,青岛-温州,0%,0.08%,0.00%,0.00%,台州-青岛,0%,宁波-青岛,0%,0.18%,0.00%,0.00%,徐州-青岛,0%,哈尔滨-青岛长春-青岛沈阳-青岛青岛-大连,0%0%0%0%,0.26%0.14%0.19%,0.00%0.00%0.00%,北京-青岛青岛-天津青岛-太原,20%9%5%,0.55%0.06%0.05%,0.11%0.01%0.00%,0.11%0.01%0.00%,青岛-石家庄,5%,青岛-济南,6

34、8%,0.03%,0.02%,青岛合计,3.97%,0.21%,0.21%,0.02%,厦门-福州,93%,温州-厦门,33%,0.07%,0.02%,0.02%,0.02%,厦门-台州,宁波-厦门,7%,0.09%,0.01%,0.01%,0.01%,厦门-徐州哈尔滨-厦门长春-厦门,0%0%0%,沈阳-厦门大连-厦门,0%0%,0.06%0.03%,0.00%0.00%,北京-厦门天津-厦门,0%0%,0.47%0.06%,0.00%0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,厦门-太原厦门-石家庄,0%0%,济南-厦门,0%,0.06%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,16,青岛-厦门,0%

35、,0.07%,0.00%,0.00%,西安-厦门郑州-厦门成都-厦门重庆-厦门,0%0%0%0%,0.07%0.11%0.12%0.07%,0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%,0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%,0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%,厦门-宜昌,0%,武汉-厦门合肥-厦门南京-厦门上海-厦门杭州-厦门南昌-厦门长沙-厦门,0%0%5%5%5%0%0%,0.19%0.13%0.20%0.82%0.39%0.13%0.26%,0.00%0.00%0.01%0.04%0.02%0.00%0.00%,0.00%0.00%0.01%0.04%0.02%0.00%0.00%

36、,0.00%0.00%0.01%0.04%0.02%0.00%0.00%,厦门-贵阳,0%,昆明-厦门广州-厦门深圳-厦门厦门合计,0%9%13%,0.13%0.35%0.25%4.12%,0.00%0.03%0.03%0.16%,0.00%0.10%,0.00%0.00%0.00%0.10%,杭州-上海,100%,南昌-上海长沙-上海贵阳-上海昆明-上海广州-上海上海-深圳上海-厦门福州-上海上海-温州,0%5%0%0%0%0%5%5%50%,0.21%0.40%0.26%0.47%1.31%1.58%0.82%0.46%0.45%,0.00%0.02%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00

37、%0.04%0.02%0.22%,0.00%0.02%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.04%0.02%0.22%,0.00%0.02%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.04%0.02%0.22%,台州-上海宁波-上海,83%94%,上海-徐州哈尔滨-上海长春-上海上海-沈阳,60%0%0%0%,0.03%0.50%0.34%0.61%,0.02%0.00%0.00%0.00%,0.02%,上海-大连,0%,北京-上海上海-天津上海-太原上海-石家庄上海-济南上海-青岛上海-西安,10%15%5%0%50%5%0%,3.08%0.52%0.27%0.11%0.29%0.76

38、%0.64%,0.31%0.08%0.01%0.00%0.14%0.04%0.00%,0.31%0.08%0.14%0.04%,0.00%0.00%0.00%,郑州-上海成都-上海,5%0%,0.34%0.77%,0.02%0.00%,0.02%0.00%,0.02%0.00%,17,重庆-上海上海-宜昌,0%6%,0.66%0.05%,0.00%0.00%,0.00%0.00%,上海-武汉合肥-上海,6%50%,0.50%0.05%,0.03%0.02%,0.03%0.02%,0.03%,上海-南京,94%,上海合计,15.48%,0.98%,0.97%,0.36%,深圳-厦门福州-深圳,1

39、3%5%,0.25%0.16%,0.03%0.01%,0.00%0.00%,深圳-温州,0%,0.10%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,台州-深圳,0%,宁波-深圳深圳-徐州哈尔滨-深圳长春-深圳沈阳-深圳大连-深圳,0%0%0%0%0%0%,0.20%0.03%0.09%0.04%0.10%0.12%,0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%,0.00%0.00%,0.00%0.00%,北京-深圳深圳-天津,0%0%,1.26%0.22%,0.00%0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,深圳-太原石家庄-深圳深圳-济南深圳-青岛西安-深圳郑州-深圳成都-深圳重庆-深圳

40、深圳-宜昌深圳-武汉合肥-深圳南京-深圳上海-深圳杭州-深圳南昌-深圳长沙-深圳贵阳-深圳昆明-深圳,0%0%0%0%0%5%0%0%5%14%5%5%0%0%0%60%0%0%,0.12%0.05%0.19%0.21%0.40%0.29%0.69%0.50%0.03%0.48%0.14%0.34%1.58%0.57%0.15%0.45%0.23%0.35%,0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.01%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.07%0.01%0.02%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.27%0.00%0.00%,0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.0

41、0%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%,0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%,100%,深圳合计,9.35%,0.42%,0.00%,0.00%,沈阳-大连,73%,北京-沈阳沈阳-天津沈阳-太原沈阳-石家庄沈阳-济南,23%10%5%9%10%,0.55%0.04%0.06%0.14%,0.13%0.00%0.00%0.01%,18,沈阳-青岛沈阳-西安兰州-沈阳郑州-沈阳成都-沈阳重庆-沈阳宜昌-沈阳沈阳-武汉合肥-沈阳南京-沈阳上海-沈阳杭

42、州-沈阳南昌-沈阳长沙-沈阳贵阳-沈阳昆明-沈阳广州-沈阳沈阳-深圳沈阳-厦门福州-沈阳沈阳-温州台州-沈阳宁波-沈阳徐州-沈阳哈尔滨-沈阳长春-沈阳沈阳合计济南-石家庄青岛-石家庄西安-石家庄兰州-石家庄郑州-石家庄,0%0%0%5%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%90%95%23%5%22%0%94%,0.19%0.05%0.10%0.04%0.07%0.06%0.03%0.14%0.61%0.21%0.21%0.10%0.06%0.08%0.06%0.13%2.92%,0.00%0.00%0.01%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0

43、.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.11%0.26%,成都-石家庄重庆-石家庄宜昌-石家庄武汉-石家庄合肥-石家庄南京-石家庄上海-石家庄杭州-石家庄南昌-石家庄长沙-石家庄贵阳-石家庄昆明-石家庄,0%0%0%25%5%0%0%5%0%0%0%0%,0.07%0.04%0.11%0.06%,0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%,0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%,19,/,广州-石家庄石家庄-深圳,0%0%,0.04%0.05%,0.00%0.00%,0.0

44、0%0.00%,厦门-石家庄福州-石家庄温州-石家庄台州-石家庄宁波-石家庄徐州-石家庄哈尔滨-石家庄长春-石家庄沈阳-石家庄,0%0%0%0%0%0%5%5%9%,大连-石家庄北京-石家庄石家庄-天津石家庄-太原,7%100%87%97%,0.03%,0.00%,石家庄合计石家庄-太原,97%,0.40%,0.00%,0.00%,济南-太原青岛-太原西安-太原,14%5%,0.03%0.05%0.09%,0.00%0.00%,0.00%0.00%0.00%,0.00%,兰州-太原郑州-太原,0%60%,成都-太原重庆-太原,0%0%,0.09%0.12%,0.00%0.00%,0.00%0.

45、00%,0.00%0.00%,宜昌-太原,0%,太原-武汉,9%,0.07%,0.01%,0.00%,合肥-太原,5%,南京-太原上海-太原杭州-太原,5%5%5%,0.13%0.27%0.13%,0.01%0.01%0.01%,0.00%0.00%0.00%,南昌-太原,0%,长沙-太原,5%,0.14%,0.01%,0.00%,贵阳-太原,0%,昆明-太原广州-太原深圳-太原,0%0%0%,0.05%0.27%0.12%,0.00%0.00%0.00%,0.00%0.00%0.00%,0.00%0.00%0.00%,厦门-太原福州-太原温州-太原台州-太原宁波-太原徐州-太原,0%0%0%

46、0%0%0%,哈尔滨-太原,0%,0.05%,0.00%,20,长春-太原,0%,沈阳-太原大连-太原北京-太原天津-太原,5%5%75%40%,0.06%0.09%0.31%0.05%,0.00%0.00%0.24%0.02%,太原合计,2.11%,0.31%,0.01%,0.00%,重庆-宜昌重庆-武汉重庆-合肥重庆-南京重庆-上海重庆-杭州重庆-南昌,10%0%0%0%0%0%0%,0.04%0.28%0.06%0.25%0.66%0.19%0.09%,0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%,0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.

47、00%,重庆-长沙重庆-贵阳重庆-昆明广州-重庆重庆-深圳重庆-厦门,0%0%0%0%0%0%,0.31%0.08%0.71%0.60%0.50%0.07%,0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%,0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%,0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%,重庆-福州,0%,重庆-温州,0%,0.12%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,台州-重庆宁波-重庆徐州-重庆重庆-哈尔滨长春-重庆,0%0%0%0%0%,重庆-沈阳大连-重庆北京-重庆,0%0%0%,0.07%0.71%,0.00%0.00%,重庆-

48、天津,0%,0.06%,0.00%,0.00%,重庆-太原重庆-石家庄重庆-济南重庆-青岛重庆-西安郑州-重庆,0%0%0%0%0%0%,0.12%0.04%0.19%0.04%0.22%0.16%,0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%,0.00%0.00%0.00%,0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%,重庆-成都,90%,重庆合计,5.58%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,北京-天津,100%,北京-太原北京-石家庄,75%100%,0.31%,0.24%,北京-济南北京-青岛北京-西安,95%20%10%,0.15%0.55%0.96%,0.1

49、4%0.11%0.10%,0.14%0.11%,21,北京-兰州北京-郑州北京-成都北京-重庆北京-宜昌北京-武汉北京-合肥北京-南京北京-上海北京-杭州北京-南昌北京-长沙北京-贵阳北京-昆明北京-广州北京-深圳北京-厦门北京-福州北京-温州,0%78%0%0%0%8%25%32%10%5%0%5%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%,0.37%0.37%1.33%0.71%0.07%0.61%0.33%0.75%3.08%1.07%0.30%0.53%0.33%0.87%1.41%1.26%0.47%0.38%0.34%,0.00%0.29%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.05%0.08%0.2

50、4%0.31%0.05%0.00%0.03%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%,0.05%0.08%0.24%0.31%0.05%,0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%,北京-台州,0%,北京-宁波北京-徐州北京-哈尔滨北京-长春北京-沈阳北京-大连,0%76%5%9%23%15%,0.43%0.04%0.75%0.56%0.55%0.76%,0.00%0.03%0.04%0.05%0.13%0.11%,0.03%,0.00%,北京合计,19.63%,1.99%,1.02%,0.00%,重庆-成都,90%