欧洲策略焦点：支出的回报正在上升130222.ppt

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1、,高盛国际,2013 年 2 月 22 日欧洲,策略焦点,证券研究报告,支出的回报正在上升资本开支预期增幅最高的一类企业在过去几个月中表现领先。这与 2011 年和 2012 年初的情形形成了对比：当时将资金用于投资的企业表现并不突出，有的企业甚至因财务实力被削弱而处于不利局面。在我们看来，此类投资回报是鼓励企业使用超额现金并提升资本开支的关键，这对于仍处历史低点的并购活动也同样适用。我们的资本开支受益组合(GSSTCAPX)也已开始领先。,最近几年企业投资不足大多数板块的资本开支/销售比和资本开支/现金流比都较低。在避险情绪高涨的驱使下，企业管理层纷纷倾向于保存现金，而且欧洲增长乏力和不确定

2、性令投资面临格外高的风险。我们认为这些因素将在未来几年随着股市风险溢价的下滑和全球增长的改善而消退。,Sharon Bell,CFA+44(20)7552-1341 彼得欧品海默+44(20)7552-5782,高盛国际资源：投资将流向何方,石油与采矿占资本开支的比重从 90 年代的 10%上升到了目前接近 30%的水平。我们预计这一不平衡状态将得到调整。随着大宗商品超级周期的消退、加之现金和财务力量有限，尤其是在石油业，我们预计对大宗商品的相关投资将下降，而对资本开支/现金流比依然较低的其它领域的投资将上升。企业拥有现金.但他们会用于投资吗?,Christian Mueller-Glissm

3、ann,CFA+44(20)7774-1714 christian.mueller-高盛国际Anders Nielsen+44(20)7552-3000,Averagecapexto,Currentasa%of,高盛国际,SectorOil&GasUtilitiesAuto&PartsCon&MatTravel&LeisRetail,Capexcosthighinutilitesandoil,CapextoFCF(%)474643424140,FCFsince1995(%)444750444848,Average1079885968582,Matthieu Walterspiler+44(20

4、)7552-3403 高盛国际,BasicResourceChemicalsTelecomIndsGds&SvsFood&BevTechnologyPers&H/HGdsMediaHealthCareMarketexresoruces,37333333272523221731,Capextocashflowlowinmostsectors,40403940303027322736,92828581908185686486,资料来源：Worldscope、Datastream、高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究高盛与其研究报告所分析的企业存在业务关系，并且继续寻求发展这些关系。因此，投资者应当考虑到本

5、公司可能存在可能影响本报告客观性的利益冲突，不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素。有关分析师的申明和其他重要信息，见信息披露附录，或参阅 由非美国附属公司聘用的分析师不是美国 FINRA 的注册/合格研究分析师。,高盛集团,高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,2,2013 年 2 月 22 日,欧洲,The reward for spending is risingAfter many years of caution and concern about taking risks there is some evidence that investorsare starting to reward

6、corporates for investing their money rather than retaining it on their balancesheets.Exhibit 1 shows the average stock price performance since the summer of last yearbroken up into different bands depending on estimated capex growth(based on consensus 2013figures).The companies in the highest catego

7、ries have generally outperformed those with thelowest capex projections.Exhibit 1:Since July there has been a tendency for investors to reward more capex.Bands based on consensus 2013 capex growth estimates for STOXX Europe constituents,26.024.022.0,Performance since July 2012(%),22.0,21.7,22.1,23.9

8、,20.018.016.014.012.010.0,13.1,19.5,16.5,-20,-20 to-10,-10 to 0,0 to 5,5 to 10,10 to 20,20 to 100,Capex growth(%),2013Source:I/B/E/S,Datastream,Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.This is in stark contrast to 2011 when there was no obvious reward for investment activity;andthe companies expected to gr

9、ow capex the most were some of the weakest performers.Exhibit 2:.In contrast to 2011 when there was no obvious reward to investmentBands based on consensus 2013 capex growth estimates for STOXX Europe constituents0-5-5.5,-10,-11.2,-10.0,-15-20,-14.7,-13.0,-13.6,2011 performance(%),-20.2-25,-20,-20 t

10、o-10,-10 to 0,0 to 5,5 to 10,10 to 20,20 to 50,Capex growth(%),2012Source:I/B/E/S,Datastream,Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,3,2013 年 2 月 22 日,欧洲This reluctance up until recently for the market to clearly reward investment combined with lowend demand growth and a difficult environme

11、nt for financing has pushed capex to sales ratiosdown and although they have risen over the last two years they remain very low(Exhibit 3).The same is true for M whether companies choose to groworganically or via acquisition they are making decisions about growth,risks and financing whichare very si

12、milar.Exhibit 3:Companies have been reluctant to use cash for growth either organically or viaacquisitionsCapex to sales for Europe ex financials,9.5%,5.0%,9.0%8.5%8.0%,Capex to Sales:,M&A as a%of mcap(RHS)Capex to Sales,4.5%4.0%3.5%3.0%,2.5%,7.5%7.0%6.5%6.0%,2.0%1.5%1.0%0.5%0.0%,Q1 1995 Q1 1997 Q1

13、1999 Q1 2001 Q1 2003 Q1 2005 Q1 2007 Q1 2009 Q1 2011Source:Worldscope,Datastream,Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.We see three potential barriers to greater investment by corporates:(i)risk appetiteby managements,(ii)financing availability and costs,and(iii)a lack of demand for theend product.We th

14、ink that all three of these will ease through 2013 and continue toget progressively easier beyond that.However,we do not forecast a capex boom over the next year.The improvements we foresee arelikely to be slight and the shifts in the way companies spend their cash very cautious given thecontinued s

15、low pace of growth(especially in Europe)and low appetite for risk.We do howeverbelieve that bottom-up analysts are too cautious in their forecasts for capex,which on averagestand at just 1%year-on-year for 2013.1)Financing:Boom in debt marketsBank lending activity has historically had a good relatio

16、nship with capex but in recent years capexto sales has stabilized albeit at low levels while bank lending has continued to fall(Exhibit 4).高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,-20,4,2013 年 2 月 22 日,Exhibit 4:Capex growth has been modest but far outpaced loan growth.Capex to sales ex financials,欧洲,16.014.012.010.08.06.04.

17、02.00.0,9.59.08.58.07.57.06.56.0,-2.0-4.0,Bank lending growth to non-financial corporates,advancedone yearCapex to sales(RHS),5.55.0,99,00,01,02,03,04,05,06,07,08,09,10,11,12,13,Source:Haver,Datastream,Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.Partly companies have benefited from strong cash flows generated

18、 organically by theirbusinesses which have enabled them to continue to invest without recourse to external financing.But the availability of external funding via the debt markets,where yields are historically low,hasalso enabled companies to invest and we think this will be a major factor supporting

19、 investmentactivity in the next few years.Exhibit 5:.corporates benefiting from low yields and a boom in debt issuanceEuro area non-financial corporate 12m rolling issuance of long term debt and equity180,160140120,Debt issuanceEquity issuanceEquity boom,Debt boom,10080604020091 92 93 94 95 96 97 98

20、 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13Source:ECB,Datastream,Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.Over the last 12 months in the Euro area alone net debt issuance has amounted to 100 bn.Atthe peak of the tech bubble in 1999-2000 when companies were financing via equity(which as aform of finance w

21、as historically cheap at the time)the peak over 12 months was 120 bn of netequity issuance.In other words the debt-issuance boom over the last year is comparable with the高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,5,2013 年 2 月 22 日,欧洲equity supply boom seen in the 1999-2000 period.As an aside this was a great time for equityiss

22、uers but it was a very bad time for equity investors as returns over the subsequent decadewere negative.We discussed this in GOAL-Global Strategy Paper:No.4-The Long Good Buy;the Case for Equities,March 20,2012.Equity market investors have increasingly recognized the benefits of relatively cheap deb

23、tissuance.The correlation between the amount of debt issued and equity market performanceover the last two years has been+40%i.e.increased debt funding has been good on average forequities.Exhibit 6:Cost of debt remains very attractive,121086420,Cost of equityCost of debtDifference(RHS),876543210-1-

24、2,99,00,01,02,03,04,05,06,07,08,09,10,11,12,Source:Datastream,Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.Corporate yields remain low and the gap between the cost of equity and the cost of debt fundingremains historically high(Exhibit 6).This reward for debt financing can also been seen in theperformance of o

25、ur financial leverage basket which has outperformed STOXX Europe 600 by 3%over the last 6 months.2)Risk appetite:Still a hurdle but becoming less soThe propensity of companies to retain cash on their balance sheet is highly correlated with theequity risk premium(Exhibit 6).The sharp rise in the ERP

26、since 2007 has coincided with a moveup in the amount of cash companies keep on their balance sheet.It is not surprising the two arelinked;when the risk premium is high investors are nervous about equities and prefer companieswith higher cash balances,also a higher risk premium is associated with low

27、er growth and thiswill mean companies are less willing or able to spend their cash productively.We believe that over the medium term the risk premium will gradually normalize as Europecreates better structures for debt sustainability and bank supervision,and as global growthimproves(see Strategy Mat

28、ters:Why the risk premium could unlock so much value,January 7,2013).It has already fallen since the summer of last year and this should mean more willingnessto put cash to use by corporate.高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,1,6,2013 年 2 月 22 日,Exhibit 7:Heightened risk aversion has lead to companies hoarding cash,欧洲,1

29、3.012.512.011.511.010.510.09.5,98765432,9.08.58.0,Cash to asset ratio,Market Implied ERP(RHS,%),0-1,99,00,01,02,03,04,05,06,07,08,09,10,11,12,Source:ECB,Datastream,Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.3)Global demand improvingGlobal demand is still lacklustre although it is improving and we would expec

30、t coincident with thatimprovement to see companies starting to invest more for growth.In Exhibit 8 we plot capexgrowth estimates from the consensus for the STOXX Europe index with the month-on-monthchange in our Global Leader Indicator(GLI).Exhibit 8:As global growth recovers expect capex to pick-up

31、,21.510.50-0.5-1,654321,-1.5-2-2.5-3,GLI momentumSTOXX Europe:Average FY2 capexgrowth estimate(RHS),0-1-2-3,Dec-06,Dec-07,Dec-08,Dec-09,Dec-10,Dec-11,Dec-12,Source:I/B/E/S,Datastream,Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.The GLI is designed to anticipate moves in the global industrial cycle and consiste

32、nt with that itseems to slightly lead the European capex cycle for companies.In recent months GLI momentumhas improved modestly and we would expect to see analysts revising up their estimates for the高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,7,2013 年 2 月 22 日,欧洲amount of capital spending over this next year.Albeit that given t

33、he continued weak pace ofrecovery,especially in Europe,the rise in investment spend is still likely to be muted.Our US economists also expect a rise in investment spending in 2013 and beyond afterweakness in 2012(see US Economics Analyst:13/07-Brighter Prospects for Capital Spending,February 15,2013

34、).Their model points to a robust investment growth rate of about 9%-10%for2013-2014,contributing about one percentage point to GDP growth.The strength is driven by ahigh profit rate,easier credit conditions,and the low base level of investment.Resources vs.the rest of the market:The spend and the sp

35、end notsResources companies both oil and mining have dominated capex in Europe in recent years.Exhibit 9 shows the proportion of European capital spending done by oil and basic resourcescompanies.This has risen from around 10%in the 1990s to over 25%currently.Capital projectsclearly take a long time

36、 to plan and pursue so we would not expect a relationship betweenchanges in capex and changes in commodity prices over short periods(such as a year or two)but over time the super-cycle in commodity demand and prices has driven the boom ininvestment.Exhibit 9:The commodity super cycle has driven the

37、need for capex in resources sectors,30,1000900,252015105,Proportion of European capex by Resourcessectors(%)S&P GSCI Commodity index(RHS),8007006005004003002001000,90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12Source:Worldscope,Datastream.Exhibit 10 shows capex to sales for the

38、 market split into resources sectors and the market exresources.In the case of the latter the ratio has been low and flat for three years whereas for theresources companies capex has been more volatile but generally on a rising trend over the lastdecade.The dynamics of these two parts of the market

39、are likely to remain very different.For resourcesand particularly for the big oil majors we expect capex growth to peak in 2013 andalthough capex may still grow slightly over the next few years the pace is likely to bemuted.Our oil analysts have argued that weak free cash flow means that they have i

40、nsufficientfunds to both pay dividends and grow their capital spending over the next few years.For a recentpiece on this topic see Europe:Energy:Oil Integrated:Another tough year for integrated oils:ENI and BG better positioned,January 11,2013.高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,13,12,80,8,2013 年 2 月 22 日,Exhibit 10:A s

41、harp divergence in spending by resources and non-resources sectorsCapex to sales(%),欧洲,1110987654,Capex to sales:,ResourcesNon resources,00,01,02,03,04,05,06,07,08,09,10,11,12,Source:Worldscope,Datastream.The mining companies too have suffered in recent years under the weight of their capexrequireme

42、nts.Indeed company managements have increasingly been put under pressure byshareholders to restrain spending.However although promises of spending cuts have been madewe are doubtful that these will be delivered.Projects have a tendency to overrun on costs andanalysts(and companies)consistently under

43、estimate the true amount of spend.Exhibit 11:Consensus underestimates mining capex;in particular in times of economicrecoveryConsensus expectation of the Big Five miners capexBig-5 miners Capex($bn)706050403020100,Jan-09,Jul-09,Jan-10,Jul-10,Jan-11,Jul-11,Jan-12,Jul-12,Jan-13,FY11,FY12,FY13,FY14,Sou

44、rce:I/B/E/S consensus,Goldman Sachs Research.Our capital goods analysts have noted that the consensus has been expecting the next yearsmining capex to fall for the better part of the last decade,so far it has only happened once,in2009,and over the decade capex has increased 7x.They argue this system

45、atic forecasting erroris partly due to mining majors persistent cost overruns and partly due to analysts failure to高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,9,2013 年 2 月 22 日,欧洲incorporate new projects.This forecasting error has been particularly high in times of high oraccelerating GDP growth.See Europe:Capital Goods:Multipl

46、e reasons to remain positive;weprefer global growth,January 17,2013.As a notable example Anglo American plc recently reported a c.$5 bn write-down on its Minas Rio(Brazilian Iron Ore)project.The company press release expressly stated the issues behind thewrite-down as increased capex.Although we wou

47、ld expect the investment activity of the rest of the market to pick-upover the next one to two years clearly the activity of the resources companies willremain crucial and this is likely to be constrained especially for the oil majors wherecash flow is a consideration.Most sectors are spending well

48、below average on investmentWe show in the table below capex to cash flow for all the sectors and comparisons with theiraverages since 1995.Oil is the only sector where capex to free cash flow(pre-capex)is both highin comparison to other sectors and is above its own historical average.Utilities is no

49、t far behind they spend almost as much of their cash flow on capex as the oil sector and their currentspending is only slightly below the long term average.For most sectors though capex represents a much lower proportion of cash flow usage than in thepast and we would expect this to change as global

50、 growth picks-up.Exhibit 12:Capex to cash flow is low for most sectors oil and utilities are exceptionsCapex to FCF(before capex),Averagecapexto,Currentasa%of,Sector,CapextoFCF(%),FCFsince1995(%),Average,Oil&GasUtilitiesAuto&PartsCon&MatTravel&LeisRetail,Capexcosthighinutilitesandoil,46.646.242.642.