A股市场1月投资策略：坚持优选金融蓝筹和周期蓝筹1231.ppt

《A股市场1月投资策略：坚持优选金融蓝筹和周期蓝筹1231.ppt》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《A股市场1月投资策略：坚持优选金融蓝筹和周期蓝筹1231.ppt（28页珍藏版）》请在三一办公上搜索。

1、1,A,2013,1,A,2012,12,31,12,1949,A,13%,14%,28,30014%,16%,17%,010-,S1010510120004,-7.4%,20121.6%,0755-S1010510120038021-,12,QE4,S1010512050004,010-S1010511090003,1,2012,12,010-,S1010512060002010-60836736,A,1,2,IPO,A,/,1,3,A,2013,1,.1.2.2.4.6,2012,12,.7,.13.16.16.19.22,1,3,4,5,6,8,9,11,12,13,15,16,0,20

2、,21,22,23,24,25,28,29,30,31,32,33,A,2013,1,12/3-12/28,.1,2 A,12/3-12/28,.1,.1,12/3-12/28,.1,12/3-12/28,.2,12/3-12/28,.2,7 2012,.3.3.4,1014,A,PMI,.4.4.4.5.5,.6.6,1718,10,10,.7.7,19 1,.8.8.8.8.9.9.9,262734 1135 11,11,11,.9.9.9.10.10.10.10.11.11.11,36,37,38 1,39 1,40,41,42,43,44,45,46,47,50 12,52,54,55

3、,56,A,2013,1,.12.12.12.1212/3-12/28.1312/3-12/28.1312/3-12/28.1312/3-12/28.13.14.14.14.14,4849515357585960,300/33,PETTMPE10.5-1,.15.16.16.17.17.17.18.18.18.19.19.20.20,61,0.5,5,.20,3,4,5,6,7,A,2013,1,1,2012,12,.2,2,2012,12,28,.5,.15.16.19.21.22,12/03,12/10,12/17,12/24,2.89%,0,A,2013,1,1215.91%,A,12.

4、78%,14.22%,28,13.94%,300,16.63%,2%,14,4.32%,12,12,A,2013,A,1,12/3-12/28,2,A,12/3-12/28,2300225022002150,18%16%14%,15.91%,12.78%,14.22%,13.94%,16.63%,210020502000,12%10%8%,1950190018501800,Wind,MM/DD,6%4%2%0%,300Wind,3,4,12/3-12/28,20,17.1,14%12%,10.05%,12.78%,15,10%,105,11.21.5,7.54.7,10.3,6.12.7,4.

5、2,7.62.1,0.2,8%6%4%2%0%,2.79%1.77%1.00%,3.32%,6.15%5.37%0.54%,-2%-0.67%,-5,1Y,3Y,-3.05Y,7Y,10Y,15Y,-3.820Y,12,Wind,Wind,A,COMEX,CBOT,NYMEX,NYBOT4.22%,1,5,6,A,2013,1,12/3-12/28,12/3-12/28,4%2%0%-2%-4%-6%-8%-10%-12%,-0.7%,1.9%,-1.2%,-1.3%,-2.9%,-9.7%,-7.8%,1.3%0.4%,3%2%1%0%-1%-2%-3%-4%,-0.69%,1.76%,0.

6、96%,1.57%,-0.50%,-0.01%,Wind,-5%,Wind,-4.22%,01,2012,9,1,GDP,1,2012,PMI,1,2012,12,2012/8,2012/9,2012/10,2012/11,2012/12,GDP,%,7.4,7.8,2013/01/18 10:00,%,8.913.220.2267,9.214.220.5277,9.614.520.7320,10.114.920.7196,10.114.720.6198,2013/01/18 10:002013/01/18 10:002013/01/18 10:002013/01/10 11:30,CPIPP

7、IM2,%,2.0-3.513.57039,1.9-3.614.86232,1.7-2.814.15052,2.0-2.213.95229,2.3-1.913.95515,2013/01/11 9:302013/01/11 9:302013/01/10 15:052013/01/10 15:05,Wind,12,Wind,11,7.8%,CPI11,PPIWind0.4%,2012,GDPBloomberg2.12.2%,M2,Bloomberg,Wind,2,11/04,11/06,11/08,11/10,11/12,12/02,12/04,12/06,12/08,12/10,A,2013,

8、1,7.8%,2013,1010.5%,GDP,20%201320131 2,2,16%,9.8%10.3%,7 2012350300250200150100500,2.52.01.51.00.50.0,8,YY/MM,%,12,2012,12,CEIC,301112,12,94,1163,11/07,11/09,11/11,12/01,12/03,12/05,12/07,12/09,12/11,10/01,10/04,10/07,10/10,11/01,11/04,11/07,11/10,12/01,12/04,12/07,12/10,A,2013,1,1,12,27,11,111,110,

9、0.5%,82,3%11,10.8%,6385,0.5%,22.8%,11,17.8%,10,14.1%9,11,%,5.46%,10,5.66%,PMI,16,1,60,1412,0,55,PMI,PMI,1,108,2,50,6,Bloomberg,YY/MMBloomberg,3,45,Wind,YY/MM,9,11,9,11,2012,11,%,12,%,1210864202,2012/82012/10,2012/92012/11,700600500400300200100,20151050510,4,0,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,15,12,CEIC,12,CEIC,3

10、,2013,1,2012,12,2012,1,20134,03/Q1,03/Q3,04/Q1,04/Q3,05/Q1,05/Q3,06/Q1,06/Q3,07/Q1,07/Q3,08/Q1,08/Q3,09/Q1,09/Q3,10/Q1,10/Q3,11/Q1,11/Q3,12/Q1,12/Q3,11Q1,11Q2,11Q3,11Q4,12Q1,12Q2,12Q3,12Q4,13Q1,13Q2,13Q3,13Q4,A,2013,1,32013,1,12,1,PMI,1518%,2013,1,1360%45%,1430%20%,A,%,30%,15%0%,10%0%,15%,YY/QQ,10%,

11、YY/QQ,CEIC 2012Q4,10,11,Wind,2003,5.16%,0.87,201210.1%,10 11,2012,-7.4%,1.6%,2012,2,2012,12,28,A,2011Q12011Q22011Q32011Q42012Q12012Q22012Q32012Q4(F)2013Q1(F)2013Q2(F)2013Q3(F)2013Q4(F)20112012(F)2013(F),29.8%25.8%26.8%16.5%10.2%6.3%4.8%8.1%4.7%5.6%6.6%8.0%24.6%7.2%6.3%,15.7%15.0%14.7%14.5%14.4%14.2%

12、14.3%16.1%16.8%16.5%16.8%16.8%15.0%14.8%16.7%,20.7%15.2%7.5%-18.2%-14.6%-17.2%-17.7%1.6%-1.5%0.3%3.4%-4.4%5.0%-12.2%-0.6%,29.6%31.9%20.0%8.2%14.8%15.5%13.1%4.1%7.5%7.9%9.0%17.5%22.6%12.3%10.0%,26.8%23.2%12.3%-10.3%0.6%-1.3%-2.0%2.8%3.8%4.6%6.6%6.3%12.1%-0.1%5.3%,Wind5,A,2013,1,1215,CEIC,QE4,16,QE4CE

13、IC,20122011,12,30,12,31,16.3942000,6,A,2013,1,12,27,25,17,10,%,18,10,%,Wind,10,Wind,2011,6,-8,10,2011,6,-8,2013,2,A,2012,12,12,1,03:3:2:21,7,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,03,09,03,09,03,09,03,09,03,09,03,09,03,09,03,09,03,09,03,09,03,09,2002,2002,2003,2003,2004,2004,2005,2005,2006,2006,2007,2007,2008,2

14、008,2009,2009,2010,2010,2011,2011,2012,2012,A,2013,1,192500,1,0,20,20082011,20092012,2010,200002000,15001000500011-01 11-05 11-09 12-01 12-05 12-09 13-01Wind21,150001000050000221,4001,200,Wind,700500300100-100-300-5002004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Wind,0.150.10.050-0.05-0.1,1,0008006004

15、002000200,Wind,1238,201201,201202,201203,201204,201205,201206,201207,201208,201209,201210,201211,201212,04-06,04-20,05-04,05-18,06-01,06-15,06-29,07-13,07-27,08-10,08-24,09-07,09-21,10-12,10-26,11-09,11-01,11-03,11-05,11-07,11-09,11-11,12-01,12-03,12-05,12-07,12-09,12-11,050715,060227,060922,070420,

16、080620,090306,090904,100319,100930,110401,11Q3,120427,121123,:,A,2013,1,23,24,87,%,7,30 MA,109,%,:1,6543210,876543210,:7:14,mm-dd,2007-01,2009-01,2011-01,01-04 03-04,05-04,07-04,09-04,11-04,Wind,Wind10,10,78%,12,80%,11,25,(,),26,11,300,3002001000100,2500240023002200210020001900,90%85%80%75%70%65%60%

17、,6000500040003000200010000,200,Wind,1800,Wind,271500,11,0,28100,EPFR_China,10005000-500-1000-1500,Wind,-500-1000-1500-2000-2500mm-dd-3000-3500,500-50,Wind,IPO9,A,2013,1,29,30,-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%,%,20151050-5,201510502008-5,2009,2010,2011,2012,%012345678,300%,-10,-10,9,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,

18、Wind,Wind,11,A-,11,8%,7.9%31,32,8,4.543.5,%,101,%,43.532.52,98765,%,A-,5,32.52,1.510.50,432,2010-01,2011-01,2012-01,09-01,09-09,10-05,11-01,11-09,12-05,Wind,Wind,11,11,600,83%8.97%,9.03%10,A,2013,1,13.342520,15.5,36.5,33,34,11,12,%,2,10864202008-01 2009-01 2010-01 2011-01 2012-01,35,11,2013,3,100020

19、%,200,2013,11,1201,1202,1203,1204,1205,1206,1207,1208,1209,1210,1211,1212,1201,1202,1203,1204,1205,1206,1207,1208,1209,1210,1211,1212,A,2013,1,36,37,IPO,1,40,200,IPO,2002040,Wind,150100500,Wind,3812%10%8%6%4%2%,1,/,800600400200,3910%8%6%4%2%0%,1,/,0%,Wind,0,Wind,IPOIPOIPOHIPO12,15.13%,14.92%,14.91%,

20、21.67%,10.55%,A,2013,1,12,29,4030%25%20%15%,12/3-12/28,4125%20%15%,21.65%,12/3-12/2815.67%14.48%11.97%10.83%,10%5%0%,Wind,12,10%5%0%,Wind,12,4230%25%20%,12/3-12/28,4330%26.89%23.00%25%20%,20.53%0.23%,12/3-12/28,15%10%5%0%,Wind,15%10%5%0%,Wind,11.78%,9.29%8.83%,6.42%,1213,A,2013,1,2008,2008,10,4,2008

21、,10,2011,20102012,7,20092010,4446,WindWind,2011,2,4547,WindWind,2012,14,A,2013,1,48120100806040200,Wind,PETTM,20082012,20126000500040003000200010000PMI,1,2013,2,2013,1,12,11QFII,IPO,2013,12,2013,1,4,1,3,13,PMI,PPI,15,A,2013,1,5-20%,12,20%,10%,49,PE,50,12,9008007006005004003002001000,0%,5%10%15%20%25

22、%30%,Wind,Wind,11,2013,1,PPI,4,41,13,10,%,27,30,PPI,1-11,1-11,/1-10,11,/10,1-11,/1-10,11,/10,11,/10,-3.216.19.057.5-14.3-60.3-0.64.510.0,0.30.9-1.812.93.77.71.20.84.3,-3.4-0.20.61.30.41.22.00.92.51.1,-1.29-0.58-0.82-1.83-0.87-1.240.98-0.67-0.25-3.63,2.022.478.27-4.80-12.266.717.4814.1320.10,1.150.25

23、0.06-0.221.443.40-0.060.050.090.49,1213.8%,14.0%,300,201229,7,5.1%,4.4%20132012,16,2012-10-08,2012-10-15,2012-10-22,2012-10-29,2012-11-05,2012-11-12,2012-11-19,2012-11-26,2012-12-03,2012-12-10,2012-12-17,2012-12-24,2007-01,2007-03,2007-06,2007-08,2007-10,2008-01,2008-03,2008-05,2008-08,2008-10,2008-

24、12,2009-03,2009-05,2009-07,2009-10,2009-12,2010-03,2010-05,2010-07,2010-09,2010-12,2011-02,2011-04,2011-07,2011-09,2011-12,2012-02,2012-04,2012-07,2012-09,2012-11,/,A,2013,1,51,300,52,16.0%14.0%12.0%10.0%8.0%6.0%4.0%2.0%0.0%,2012300,2013,2500240023002200210020001900,12108642,7,11,11,0,TTMPE,0.76,/,2

25、007,10,2009,7,0.85,0.81,53,/,/,7,0006,0005,0004,0003,0002,0001,0000,Wind,0.90.80.70.60.50.40.30.20.10.0,2012,2013,201317,A,2013,1,5415%10%2015%30%,0.30,0.50,0.70,0.90,1.10,1.30,1.50,1.70,-5%,-10%,2012,55,Wind,2012-11-3056,2012-12-27,12,12,12,12,60%,80000700006000050000400003000020000100000,50%40%30%

26、20%10%0%,Wind,12,Wind,12,12,12,312,9 7,9.7%3.0%,2.2%,18,:,A,2013,1,57,3,302520151050Wind58316%14%12%10%8%6%4%2%0%Wind52012-12-282012-12-272012-12-272012-12-262012-12-262012-12-262012-12-262012-12-26,11,22,33,2012-12-26,2017,16,F-35,2012-12-25,2012-12-23,F-15,2012-12-212012-12-212012-12-202012-12-191

27、9,A,2013,1,2012-12-172012-12-13,1,2011,10,15,6%,0.5-1,598.0%7.0%6.0%5.0%4.0%,1,605.0%4.0%3.0%2.0%,0.5-1,3.0%,2.0%1.0%,1.0%0.0%,0.0%,21,14,7,7,14,21,28,21,14,7,7,14,21,28,1.0%,61,0.5,5,2011,21,26,3435,4246,2010,21,272728,33,44,2009,12131314,1616,0,20,40,60,0,20,40,60,0,10,20,Wind20,A,6,2013,1,2013,1,

28、1,201320122013,201320132013,12 3,201320132013201320131 312013,2,2012,1800,2013,5%,201320132013201320132013201320122013,72,2013,/,20132013201320132013,31 2,3.15201228%,2,2013,1,2,2013,Android,2013,Wind21,A,2013,1,12,A,1,2,3,AA201317,201320132013201320132013,111111,110141824,PMI2012,PMI,Wind22,-,“,”,A

29、nalyst CertificationiiiThe analysts primarily responsible for the preparation of all or part of the research report contained herein hereby certify that:(i)the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of each such analyst about the subject securities and issuers;

30、and(ii)no part of the analysts compensation was,is,or will be directly or indirectly,related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in thisresearch report.“”,/,(,),(1),(2)/20121,300,20%,6,300,5%,20%,2,6300,6300,300300300300300,-10%5%10%10%-10%10%10%,48,1568,8,1,100125,22,200122,518048,26

31、,Foreign Broker-Dealer Disclosures for Distributing to the U.S.This report has been produced in its entirety by CITIC Securities Limited Company(“CITIC Securities”,regulated by the China Securities RegulatoryCommission.Securities Business License Number:Z20374000).This report is being distributed in the United States by CITIC Securities pursuant toRule 15a-6(a)(2)under the U.S.Securities Exchange Act of 1934 exclusively to“major U.S.institutional investors”as defined in Rule 15a-6 and the SEC,no-action letters thereunder.,Z20374000,1934“,”,15a-6(a)(2),15a-6,