项目组合管理.ppt

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1、Project Portfolio ManagementAn Introduction李俊伟 November 2002Beijing,项目管理者联盟,MYPM.NET,2,Content,Emergence of Project Portfolio Management(PPM)Portfolio Management in Financial MarketOverview of PPM PPM,Process and Techniques,3,The Emergence of Project Portfolio Management,1952,Modern Portfolio Theory

2、(MPT),Harry Markowitz,Journal of Finance,Portfolio Selection1990,Harry Markowitz shared Nobel Prize,dominant approach used to manage risk and return within financial markets1981,F.Warren McFarian,Portfolio Approach to Information Systems,HBR,to employ a risk-based approach to the selection and manag

3、ement of IT projects.1990s,a broader use of ideas of portfolio management 1998,John Thorp,The Information Paradox.Portfolio management was used to manage risk and maximize return along a number of dimensions.Present,portfolio management as central elements of good investment management,4,Portfolio M

4、anagement,the overall picture,Focus(Strategic Planning),Source:PM Solutions,Portfolio Management,Dianne Bridges,Select(Portfolio Management),Manage(Project Management),5,Content,Emergence of Project Portfolio Management(PPM)Portfolio Management in Financial MarketOverview of PPM PPM,Process and Tech

5、niques,6,The Old Philosophy about Portfolio,Dont put all your eggs in one basket.,Risk aversion seems to be an instinctive trait in human beings.,7,Return and Risk in Financial Market,expected return,standard deviation(%),capital appreciation,growth of income,0 6 12 18 24 30 36,20181614121086420,inc

6、ome,inflation,T-bills,intermediate-termgovernmentbonds,long-termgovernment bonds,long-termcorporate bonds,large company stocks,smallcompanystocks,stabilityof principal,8,The Role of Combining Securities,The expected return of a portfolio is a weighted average of the component expected returns.,The R

7、ole of Combining Securities,10,The total risk of a portfolio comes from thevariance of the components and from the relationships among the components.,10,The Role of Combining Securities,expected return,risk,betterperformance,A portfolio dominates all others if no other equally risky portfolio has a

8、 higher expected return,or if no portfolio with the same expected return has less risk.,The point of diversification is to achieve a given level of expected return while bearing the least possible risk.,11,The Efficient Frontier:Optimum Diversification of Risky Assets,expected return,risk(standard d

9、eviation of returns),impossibleportfolios,dominatedportfolios,efficient frontier,The optimal combinations result in lowest level of risk for a given returnThe optimal trade-off is described as the efficient frontier,12,The Efficient Frontier vs Naive Diversification,As portfolio size increases,total

10、 portfolio risk,on average,declines.After a certain point,however,the marginal reduction in risk from the addition of another security is modest.,total risk,Non-diversifiablerisk,number of securities,Naive diversification is the random selectionof portfolio components without conducting any serious

11、security analysis.,13,Risk Reduction with Diversification,14,Market or systematic risk:risk related to the macro economic factor or market indexUnsystematic or firm specific risk:risk not related to the macro factor or market indexTotal risk=Systematic+Unsystematic,Components of Risk,15,Two-Security

12、 Portfolios with Different Correlations,16,Relationship depends on correlation coefficient-1.0+1.0The smaller the correlation,the greater the risk reduction potentialIf=+1.0,no risk reduction is possible,Portfolio Risk/Return,Correlation Effects,17,Structuring a Portfolio:Asset Allocation,individual

13、 choice asset class mix investment results,18,Content,Emergence of Project Portfolio Management(PPM)Portfolio Management in Financial MarketOverview of PPM PPM,Process and Techniques,19,What is project portfolio management,Portfolio Management is the project selection process and involves identifyin

14、g opportunities:assessing the organizational fit;analyzing the costs,benefits,and risks;and developing and selecting a portfolio.The art of project portfolio management is:doing the right thing,selecting the right mix of projects and adjusting as time evolves and circumstances unfold.,20,Portfolio M

15、anagement is:,Defining goals and objectives clearly articulate what the portfolio is expected to achieveUnderstanding,accelerating,and making tradeoffs determine how much to invest in one thing as opposed to something elseIdentifying,eliminating,minimizing,and diversifying risk select a mix of inves

16、tments that will avoid undue risk,will not exceed acceptable risk tolerance levels,and will spread risks across projects and initiatives to minimize adverse impactsMonitoring portfolio performance understand the progress that the portfolio is making toward the achievement of the goals and objectives

17、Achieving a desired objective have the confidence that the desired outcome will likely be achieved given the aggregate of investments that are made,21,Portfolio Management is Not,Doing a series of project specific calculations and analyses,such as return on investment,benefit-cost analysis,net prese

18、nt value,payback period,rate of return,and then adjusting them all to account for risk.these are project specificCollecting after-the-market information on projects to produce a report that the organization hopes will satisfy some organizational reporting requirement.,22,The benefits of Portfolio Ma

19、nagement,Having a structure in place to select the right projects and immediately remove the wrong projectsPlacing resources where it matters,reducing wasteful spendingLinking portfolio decisions to strategic direction and business goalsEstablishing logic,reasoning,and a sense of fairness behind por

20、tfolio decisionsEstablishing ownership amongst the staff by involvement at the right levels,23,Content,Emergence of Project Portfolio Management(PPM)Portfolio Management in Financial MarketOverview of PPM PPM,Process and Techniques,24,Project Portfolio Management,Process&Technique,Four stepsProject

21、Evaluation MatrixEvaluation Criteria Examples,25,Step 1:Define the Portfolio,First,establish the overall portfolio mission.This mission statement will be used to initially determine what projects are in or out of the portfolio.The mission statement can be simple,like:The Intranet Portfolio covers al

22、l projects to be deployed on the corporate intranet.,26,Step 2:Gather the Projects,Now,gather all the projects together that you think might be in the portfolio.This may not be the list you already have.Some projects,including duplicate efforts,may be underway in other parts of the organization.,27,

23、Step 3:Begin Weeding,Once the project list is established,begin weeding the list down.Remove projects that:Are duplicate efforts.Here is an opportunity to save money by pooling two or more efforts into a single project.Do not meet the mission area.Some projects may be under your wing but do not fit

24、in the mission area.Remove them from your portfolio and place them elsewhere.,28,Step 4:Begin Evaluating,Once the portfolio list is set,begin evaluating each project to determine what the overall portfolio will look like.Using the four-quadrant matrix here,evaluate the projects against two major cri

25、teria:What are the potential risks in implementing this project?What are the potential benefits in implementing this project?,29,Project Evaluation Matrix,30,Using the Matrix,The matrix is used as a scoring tool to map projects against the evaluated level of risk and the evaluated potential benefici

26、al impact of a project.Projects are evaluated on both risk and benefit from low to high using a series of questions and scores.Projects are then evaluated in the worksheet and decisions made for inclusion and balancing the portfolio.,31,Matrix Decision Regions,Projects to remove from the portfolio,P

27、rojects to keep in the portfolio,32,Evaluation Criteria,The Evaluation Matrix uses two basic criteria:Risk and Benefit.Five sample risk areas:Risk of Completion On Time(Schedule Risk)Risk of Managing Multiple Organizations(Organizational Risk)Risk of Technologies Used for the Application(Technologic

28、al Risk)Risk of Not Proceeding with the Project(Risk of Not Doing It)Projects Implementation and Maintenance CostsFive sample benefit areas:Number of potential groups or users needing applicationProjects Impact on Cross-Functional ActivitiesProjects Impact on Improving Internal CultureProjects Impac

29、t on Improving External Customer ServiceEstimated Benefit/Cost Ratio(Potential Savings or Profits),33,Risk Assessment Scorecard-illustration,34,Benefits Assessment Scorecard-illustration,35,Plot the Project on the Matrix,Our Low Risk/Low Benefit Project Might Be Rejected or Delayed,Our High Risk/Hig

30、h Benefit Project Might Be Approved,36,What is the difference,Portfolio Management in the financial marketProject management,37,Questions and Answers,38,Thank You!李俊伟Contact at:george.leeTalentA,Room 318,JinOu Plaza,#2 An Zhen Li,Chaoyang,Beijing,China 100029Tel+86-10 6443 7361.6443 7362Fax+86-10 6443 7363,