银行业中报综述：中报综述基本面喜忧参半板块易守难攻0905.ppt

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1、,5,行业研究报告,银行业,2012 年 9 月 4 日,中报综述：基本面喜忧参半，板块易,守难攻核心观点:,谨慎推荐,维持评级,银行中报喜忧参半。上市银行中报同比增长 18.2%，中小银行保持超过 28%的增长，大型银行放缓至 14%。利息净收入增长高于预期，二季度环比增速较一季度提升 1.2 个百分点至 3.8%；16家上市银行二季度净息差 9 升 7 降，家股份制银行净息差回落，反映了重定价周期差异的影响与银行息差管理的努力；手续费收入增速继续放缓，但利息净收入超预期增长使得营收增速平稳；不良与逾期贷款上升平稳，但逾期攀升，逾期贷款余额较年初增加增加 31.3%/1263 亿元；核心资本

2、充足率环比普遍上升。三季度银行景气度下滑：1）息差回落压力较大。三季度贷款利率重定价占比 2-7 成、贷款到期占比 1-2 称，连续两次降息的累计效应开始释放；2）强调服务实体经济的政策导向会持续压制银行在提升手续费收入增速的努力，手续费净收入增速难以加速；3）经济增速放缓使得客户的经营能力有所恶化，逾期金额还未见顶，预计三季度不良余额将继续温和缓慢上升，但在可控制范围内。调整 2012 年盈利增速至 13.1%。隐含年内继续降息 25BP 的假设，大型银行盈利增速下调至 11.2%，股份制银行下调至 19.2%，城商行下调至 24.2%。,分析师郭怡娴：（8610）6656 8229：执业证

3、书编号：S0130512030001特别鸣谢黄斌辉（8610）8357 4031（）对本报告的编制提供信息相关研究银行业 2012 年度策略：转型进取与稳健经营并,投资建议：1）三季度行业景气度见顶下滑，降息效应开始释放，,重,11.12.16,不良温和上升；2）银行盈利能力缓步下滑，当前估值已基本反,2012 年中期策略：货币与流动性困局，银行经,映银行基本面回落。银行经营转向防御，银行板块易守难攻，维持“谨慎推荐”评级。基于盈利持续能力和稳健风格偏好，推荐组合调整为兴业银行、民生银行、工商银行、农业银行。需要关注的重点公司,营转向防御,12.07.08,股票,股票,EPS(元),PE（X）

4、,ROE,名称民生银行兴业银行工商银行农业银行,代码600016601166601398601288,2010A0.663.090.470.29,2011A1.052.370.600.38,2012E1.202.470.660.44,2013E1.262.700.660.45,2010A8.84.08.08.4,2011A5.55.26.36.5,2012E4.85.05.75.6,2013E4.64.55.75.4,2012E22.9%22.3%22.2%20.5%,资料来源：中国银河证券研究部,证券研究报告,请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份公司免责声明,行业研究报告/银行业,目 录,一

5、、盈利能力处于高位，内生资本补充增强.6（一）利息净收入强劲增长，手续费净收入同比加速回落.6,（二）盈利能力处于高位，核心资本充足率略升.7,二、净息差因结构调整分化，降息重定价构成下行动力.12三、逾期攀升显示资产压力，拨贷比继续上升.18表目录.24,请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份公司免责声明。,1,。,，,行业研究报告/银行业,基本面喜忧参半。营收方面，利息净收入保持强劲增长，二季度利息净收入环比增长 3.8%，较一季度增速高 1.2 个百分点；手续费净收入加速下滑，二季度环比下滑 10.8%；不良贷款稳定，但逾期攀升，不良余额环比增加 1.8%，逾期金额较年初增长 31.3%；

6、核心资本充足率环比普遍上升。,中报同比增长 18.2%。大型银行同比增 14%，较预期高 0.4 个百分点，股份行同比增 34.1%较预期高 5.1 个百分点，城商行同比增 28.7%较预期高 5 个百分点。同比增速较快的是平安银行(42.9%)、华夏银行（42.4%）、光大银行（40.3%）和兴业银行（39.8%），增速较慢的则包括中行（7.6%）、工行（12.5%）。从盈利质量看，民生、兴业、宁波、南京、北京较为扎实（表,1）,结构调整，净息差环比普遍上行。大行普遍小幅上升，股份行普遍回落，城商行小幅上升。上市银行净利息收入环比增速由一季度的 2.6%扩大至 3.8%。结构调整是息差管理的

7、要点，结构调整包括：1）贷款久期的缩短，通过长期贷款到期释放资金发放短期贷款，拉升整体贷款收益率；2）提升中小企业贷款占比，提升整体风险定价水平；3）加息周期效应不同，大型银行重定价期限较长，基于加息周期的拉升效应尚未完全释放。结构调整改善息差的空间有限，降息后的贷款重定价构成未来息差下行的最大压力。重定价结构、客户结构的差异将会是息差分化的主要因素。,手续费净收入增速加快下行。上半年手续费净收入同比增长 7.6%，17.3%，较一季度同比增速 17.3%下降 9.7 个百分点。大型银行手续费净收入增速下降至 2.5%，中小银行保持较快增速，股份行同比增 33.9%，城商行同比增 45.7%。

8、大型银行增速较一季度下降 9.7 个百分点，股份行增速较一季度下降 12.8 个百分点，城商行上升 2.9 个百分点。强调服务实体经济的政策导向，会持续压制银行在提升手续费收入增速的努力。我们判断，基于中间业务收入占比的差异，大中小行的手续费收入增速会呈现较大的分化。,逾期攀升预示资产压力，拨备计提处于较高水平。不良贷款余额环比增加 1.8%，上半年逾期贷款余额环比增加 31.3%/1263 亿元，二季度信用成本同比提升 24BP 至 0.50%，上半年拨备计提同比增加 7.5%。拨贷比环比提升 11BP 至 2.61%。从拨备覆盖率提升幅度看，兴业、华夏、农行、建行的拨备计提较为充分。,资本

9、充足率和核心资本充足率上升。核心资本充足率普遍上升，资本充足率平均上升11BP。部分银行核心资本充足率下降幅度较大，包括北京银行（-0.87%），南京银行（-0.32%）平安银行（-0.19%），宁波银行（-0.14%）。随着资本达标期限延长至 2018 年底，我们认为近期上市银行再融资补充资本压力不大。,三季度银行景气度下滑：1）息差回落压力较大。三季度贷款利率重定价占比 2-7 成、贷款到期占比 1-2 称，连续两次降息的累计效应开始释放；2）强调服务实体经济的政策导向会持续压制银行在提升手续费收入增速的努力，手续费净收入增速难以加速；3）经济增速放缓使得客户的经营能力有所恶化，逾期金额还

10、未见顶，预计三季度不良余额将继续温和缓慢上升，但在可控制范围内。,请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份公司免责声明。,2,行业研究报告/银行业,调整 2012 年盈利增速至 13.1%。隐含年内继续降息 25BP 的假设，大型银行盈利增速下,调至 11.2%，股份制银行下调至 19.2%，城商行下调至 24.2%。,行业评级维持为“谨慎推荐”：1）三季度行业景气度见顶下滑，降息效应开始释放，不良温和上升；2）银行盈利能力缓步下滑，当前估值已基本反映银行基本面回落。银行经营转向防御，银行板块易守难攻，维持“谨慎推荐”评级。基于盈利持续能力和稳健风格偏好，推荐组合调整为兴业银行、民生银行、工商银行

11、、农业银行。,请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份公司免责声明。,3,行业研究报告/银行业表 1：2012 年中报业绩概览,百万元,工行,建行,中行,农行,交行,华夏,大型银行,股份制,城商行,上市银行,盈利数据,净利息收入净手续费收入营业收入营业费用拨备前利润拨备净利润,204058548042654868421617889519237123160,169692492432270057166815265614738106283,1240543425017962763729106209923771601,16768538929209733833121264212277280499,583941

12、0962736422350147574767331088,1719419991945292951014520686075,72388318818895549332642661175573657412631,2473134497930352711395218836926687121855,19913216923041704715988244610743,9911092353361282061447425816112102790545229,同比增速,净利息收入净手续费收入营业收入营业费用拨备前利润拨备税前利润净利润,16.9%1.9%14.1%15.4%13.0%14.0%12.6%12.5%,

13、16.5%3.3%15.8%15.2%14.2%5.8%14.7%14.5%,12.6%-2.1%8.1%12.7%3.1%-24.8%7.0%7.6%,15.9%4.8%13.9%16.7%12.1%-17.8%21.4%20.7%,18.5%9.1%18.9%14.4%19.5%28.9%18.2%17.8%,20.6%30.9%22.6%18.1%26.9%-10.9%42.7%42.4%,15.9%2.5%13.6%15.1%11.7%-4.0%14.0%14.0%,30.8%33.9%32.4%25.9%36.8%47.4%35.0%34.1%,34.4%45.7%36.6%23.0

14、%43.5%212.5%28.3%28.7%,19.6%7.6%17.9%17.8%17.2%7.5%18.4%18.2%,驱动因素（%）,生息资产同比净息差营业费用率信用成本(年化),14.52.5431.70.47民生,17.22.6231.60.43中信,11.32.0835.50.28浦发,12.42.8039.70.78招行,23.52.3931.90.53深发展,18.62.6947.80.65兴业,14.72.5034.20.49光大,27.62.7537.50.59宁波,30.12.4730.60.74南京,17.82.5634.90.51北京,盈利数据,净利息收入,28.2%

15、,23.9%,25.5%,22.2%,55.5%,56.2%,34.1%,41.0%,25.4%,35.3%,净手续费收入,26.7%,38.7%,17.6%,19.2%,134.0%64.0%,29.9%,73.3%,41.9%,39.5%,营业收入营业费用拨备前利润,32.4%24.0%37.3%,25.1%20.4%27.9%,25.5%13.6%35.1%,24.0%24.1%24.0%,61.7%72.0%53.5%,57.1%35.3%70.0%,32.9%28.3%35.6%,36.5%23.5%46.1%,36.7%26.8%42.3%,36.5%21.2%43.1%,拨备,2

16、4.6%,30.8%,55.9%,2.0%,114.9%766.3%,9.1%,23.6%,66.3%,623.9%,税前利润净利润,39.6%36.9%,27.3%28.9%,33.1%33.5%,27.5%25.7%,46.4%42.9%,41.5%39.8%,40.5%40.3%,34.9%30.4%,38.4%37.4%,23.2%25.5%,同比增速,净利息收入净手续费收入营业收入营业费用拨备前利润税前利润净利润,41.5%74.1%45.9%25.8%58.8%49.7%47.7%,27.6%42.0%28.8%22.3%32.8%33.1%31.6%,30.9%24.8%31.0

17、%24.6%37.7%30.9%30.3%,24.1%23.4%27.2%26.1%27.9%33.0%32.2%,55.8%200.6%67.2%81.9%56.0%45.9%42.7%,67.5%62.3%65.0%50.0%74.8%61.7%58.7%,31.6%29.4%35.3%22.8%42.5%43.7%41.1%,38.7%41.7%42.1%21.8%58.7%30.7%26.8%,25.3%39.3%34.3%36.1%33.3%33.4%31.7%,33.1%44.7%35.4%24.3%39.5%33.0%33.8%,驱动因素（%）,生息资产同比净息差营业费用率信用成

18、本(年化),19.03.1937.70.84,29.92.6135.80.33,23.62.5136.40.37,22.82.9138.80.53,73.12.3947.00.47,32.82.7235.31.07,25.22.7935.30.53,17.93.1138.40.39,26.82.5333.60.84,35.02.3126.60.77,资料来源：公司公告，中国银河证券研究部请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份公司免责声明。,4,行业研究报告/银行业表 2：调整 2012 年盈利增速至 13.1%,2012，%,生息资产,净息差,利息净收入 非息收入,营业收入,营业费用,减值计提,

19、净利润,工行建行中行农行交行华夏民生中信浦发招行平安兴业光大宁波南京北京,12.8%12.6%12.4%12.8%16.1%17.1%21.5%22.8%17.7%16.8%36.3%25.4%18.3%8.4%22.3%24.7%,-0.7%-1.7%-3.6%-6.4%-2.6%-4.2%-6.8%-8.1%-3.7%-3.8%-7.6%2.8%3.2%14.5%-4.6%-1.4%,12.0%10.7%8.3%5.6%13.1%12.2%13.2%12.8%13.3%12.3%26.0%28.9%22.1%24.2%16.7%23.0%,3.8%4.5%1.1%4.6%13.0%24.3

20、%29.3%22.1%20.9%18.8%38.2%31.3%24.9%12.8%38.4%25.6%,10.0%9.2%6.1%5.4%13.1%13.4%16.6%14.2%14.0%13.7%27.8%29.3%22.5%22.6%19.5%23.2%,6.9%7.8%5.6%5.7%10.9%13.0%13.2%13.0%13.7%13.0%28.0%26.8%22.2%19.1%18.3%25.5%,18.0%4.4%12.3%-26.4%16.3%-5.0%17.8%13.9%0.3%-1.7%68.8%105.2%27.6%25.4%-4.5%3.8%,10.6%11.0%5.7

21、%17.1%12.8%20.9%22.3%15.6%16.7%15.9%20.9%24.3%22.2%20.9%24.0%25.5%,贷款增速,成本收入比 信用成本,ROAE,Tire1 CAR,风 险资 产增速,不良率,拨贷比,工行建行中行农行交行0华夏民生中信浦发招行平安兴业光大宁波南京北京,12.7%13.6%11.1%12.2%13.1%12.5%14.5%13.1%12.5%15.0%13.8%15.6%13.1%14.1%19.4%19.9%19.1%,29.2%29.5%33.0%36.0%29.2%0.0%41.5%35.8%29.5%29.0%36.0%40.0%31.0%3

22、2.1%35.2%30.5%27.0%,0.4%0.5%0.3%0.8%0.5%0.0%0.7%0.7%0.5%0.5%0.5%0.5%0.6%0.5%0.6%0.6%0.6%,22.2%21.5%17.1%20.5%17.6%0.0%16.2%22.9%18.9%19.7%21.1%13.9%22.3%21.2%19.3%17.1%18.4%,9.9%10.4%9.4%8.9%10.2%0.0%7.9%8.3%9.2%9.4%9.5%9.9%9.2%7.7%11.1%10.5%10.0%,19.8%22.1%21.1%23.9%25.2%#DIV/0!26.8%30.6%26.0%14.6%

23、26.0%22.9%32.8%21.7%29.3%29.9%32.2%,1.0%1.2%1.2%1.4%0.9%0.0%1.0%0.8%0.7%0.7%0.6%0.9%0.5%0.7%0.8%0.9%0.6%,2.6%2.8%2.3%4.8%2.4%0.0%3.1%2.6%1.9%2.4%2.4%2.0%1.8%2.5%1.9%2.7%2.5%,资料来源：公司公告，中国银河证券研究部请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份公司免责声明。,5,行业研究报告/银行业表 3：调整 2013 年盈利增速至 1.7%,2013，%,生息资产,净息差,利息净收入 非息收入,营业收入,营业费用,减值计提,净利润

24、,工行建行中行农行交行0华夏民生中信浦发招行平安兴业光大0宁波南京北京,10.6%11.4%12.2%12.3%14.3%0.0%14.5%18.2%14.0%13.3%15.6%20.4%18.0%17.1%0.0%17.8%17.3%15.8%,-7.5%-9.8%-10.4%-8.9%-10.7%0.0%-10.9%-13.3%-11.2%-9.4%-11.0%-13.0%-11.0%-11.4%0.0%-13.1%-11.4%-10.9%,2.3%0.4%0.5%2.3%2.1%1.5%2.0%2.5%1.2%2.6%2.9%4.8%5.1%3.7%3.1%2.4%3.9%3.2%,6

25、.1%6.2%6.5%7.6%11.9%7.7%15.3%18.1%16.5%18.0%15.1%19.4%23.3%22.2%18.5%17.1%16.1%23.1%,3.2%1.7%2.2%3.3%4.0%2.9%3.4%6.2%3.7%4.2%5.5%7.1%7.9%6.4%5.6%4.3%5.7%5.1%,4.5%1.8%2.0%3.3%4.0%3.1%4.6%4.7%2.3%4.2%5.5%6.5%6.4%6.4%5.1%3.9%5.1%5.0%,26.7%6.4%27.0%5.5%5.1%0.0%14.1%-0.2%18.8%9.3%13.6%20.7%42.8%2.8%0.0%1

26、2.3%15.0%7.2%,-0.5%0.9%-0.6%2.7%3.8%1.3%3.1%4.7%3.7%2.5%3.3%-0.2%9.7%5.5%4.0%4.1%3.5%4.2%,贷款增速,成本收入比 信用成本,ROAE,Tire1 CAR,风 险资 产增速,不良率,拨贷比,工行建行中行农行交行华夏民生中信浦发招行平安兴业光大宁波南京北京,11.3%11.9%10.9%11.5%12.6%12.7%11.5%11.9%13.2%12.2%13.1%13.0%12.0%17.8%17.4%17.9%,29.5%29.3%32.8%36.0%29.0%41.5%35.2%29.0%29.0%36.

27、0%39.8%30.5%32.1%35.0%30.3%27.0%,0.5%0.5%0.4%0.7%0.5%0.6%0.7%0.5%0.5%0.5%0.7%0.5%0.5%0.5%0.6%0.6%,19.2%18.9%15.3%18.6%14.8%14.7%19.3%17.0%17.3%17.4%11.2%18.9%17.1%17.2%15.4%15.4%,10.3%10.8%9.3%9.0%10.0%7.8%8.6%9.3%9.7%9.6%10.4%9.4%9.5%10.9%10.3%10.0%,10.1%10.9%12.3%11.8%12.9%13.9%15.0%12.8%12.7%14.1

28、%14.6%14.0%16.9%17.5%16.1%12.1%,1.2%1.3%1.4%1.5%1.0%1.2%0.9%0.8%0.8%0.8%1.4%0.7%0.9%0.9%1.0%0.7%,2.8%2.9%2.4%5.5%2.6%3.3%3.0%2.2%2.6%2.6%2.4%2.1%2.6%2.1%2.9%2.6%,资料来源：公司公告，中国银河证券研究部请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份公司免责声明。,-,-,-,-,-,6,。,。,行业研究报告/银行业表 4：90 天以上逾期与不良、关注之比较年初上升 2.5 个百分点90 天以内逾期/,（不良+逾期）工行建行中行农行交行华夏民生中信

29、浦发招行深发展兴业,08H130.6%20.1%43.6%26.5%25.3%41.4%39.8%40.7%38.6%84.1%20.3%,08A25.7%19.6%23.9%8.7%26.4%24.1%37.5%32.2%26.4%34.2%39.8%18.9%,09H129.6%22.9%39.4%25.5%25.5%33.3%45.0%36.2%41.1%62.5%25.7%,09A24.3%20.4%22.9%13.0%28.2%30.6%32.8%43.3%36.8%35.2%64.8%30.9%,10H123.1%17.8%19.8%13.5%23.7%33.7%28.9%42.0

30、%34.9%33.6%61.4%34.8%,10A21.4%14.3%17.6%13.1%18.7%24.9%28.4%37.4%34.3%32.5%53.2%30.8%,11H120.3%12.9%16.4%12.2%18.5%22.0%27.3%41.7%40.6%30.5%62.3%37.9%,11A19.0%13.1%15.0%11.9%19.0%24.5%27.2%24.1%30.7%27.4%35.6%38.1%,12H119.2%17.6%17.7%13.0%17.7%34.6%35.4%36.8%40.5%29.8%62.6%41.1%,光大,20.5%,28.9%,29.6%

31、,26.4%,31.7%,26.6%,宁波南京北京大行股份行城商行合计全部合计,5.1%15.3%40.0%30.1%39.0%28.2%31.3%,4.6%7.4%23.2%18.2%28.0%16.8%19.2%,6.8%7.6%23.8%29.7%36.0%17.6%30.2%,17.5%23.0%25.2%19.7%34.8%23.5%21.1%,18.5%19.6%23.8%18.4%35.3%22.0%19.6%,15.7%11.4%18.8%16.4%32.0%16.8%17.7%,17.8%9.8%17.6%15.4%32.4%16.0%16.8%,20.6%8.7%11.9%

32、14.8%28.6%12.7%16.1%,22.3%8.6%13.8%16.7%36.1%14.0%18.6%,资料来源：公司公告，中国银河证券研究部一、盈利能力处于高位，内生资本补充增强（一）利息净收入强劲增长，手续费净收入同比加速回落上半年，上市银行净利润 5452 亿元，占上市公司净利润总额 10144 亿元的 53.7%，较年初提升 8.5 个百分点。银行（18.2%）与非金融性企业（-16.2%）的利润同比增速相差 34.4 个百分点。上半年上市银行 ROAE23.3%，较 2011 年提升 2.3 个百分点（表 5）拨备前利润环比下滑 0.2 个百分点，分化明显（表 6）。利息净收

33、入增长略超预期抵消手续费净收入增速环比显著下降。营收同比增长 17.9%，由净利息收入同比增 19.6%，手续费净收入同比增 7.6%推动（表 7）净利息收入同比增 19.6%，略超预期。净利息收入环比增速由一季度的 2.6%提升至 3.8%（表 8）。华夏（13.7%）、兴业（11.2%）、宁波（11.3%）、南京（11.5%）、北京（12.3%）利息净收入环比增长超过 10%，另外有 5 家银行环比增速超过 4.5%。在央行降息前信贷需求不足还没有给银行息差带来太大压力，这个现象值得关注。请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份公司免责声明。,7,行业研究报告/银行业大型银行手续费净收入增速加

34、快下行，中小银行保持较快增长（表 9）。中报手续费净收入同比增长 7.6%，较一季度同比增速 17.3%下降 9.7 个百分点。大型银行手续费净收入增速下降至 2.5%，中小银行保持较快增速，股份行同比增 33.9%，城商行同比增 45.7%。股份行增速较一季度下降 12.8 个百分点，城商行上升 2.9 个百分点。从银行中报披露来看，与信贷相关的融资顾问、担保手续费收入下降是增速回落的主因。通过金融创新提升中间业务收入占比是银行转型方向，但强调服务实体经济的政策导向，会持续压制银行在提升手续费收入增速的努力。我们判断，基于中间业务收入占比的差异，大中小行的手续费收入增速会呈现较大的分化。成本

35、收入比略降，营业费用率同比基本持平（表 10、表 11）。上半年成本收入比下降 0.7个百分点，营业费用率同比下降 0.05 个百分点。营业费用率上升主要有营业税金及附加推动。信用成本继续处于较高水平（表 12）。二季度信用成本同比提升 24BP 至 0.50%，上半年拨备计提同比增加 7.5%。（二）盈利能力处于高位，核心资本充足率略升随着银行盈利能力上升，内生资本补充能力获得提高，核心资本充足率普遍上升，资本充足率平均上升 11BP(表 13、14)。部分银行核心资本充足率下降幅度较大，包括北京银行（-0.87%），南京银行（-0.32%），平安银行（-0.19%），宁波银行（-0.14%

36、）。资本充足率达标期限延长至 2018 年底，我们认为近期上市银行再融资补充资本压力不大。表 5：盈利能力继续提升，ROAE 较年初提升 2.2 个百分点,ROAE工行建行中行农行交行华夏民生中信浦发招行平安兴业光大宁波南京北京大行股份行城商行合计,200819.4%20.9%14.2%17.7%20.8%15.2%15.2%14.8%35.8%28.6%4.2%26.0%25.3%15.8%13.7%17.9%24.5%20.5%16.6%,200920.1%20.9%16.4%20.5%19.5%13.0%17.1%14.5%24.1%21.2%27.3%24.7%18.8%15.7%13

37、.2%15.8%19.1%18.5%15.2%,201022.1%21.5%18.0%21.4%20.2%18.2%18.3%19.3%20.1%22.7%23.3%24.4%19.8%18.1%15.0%17.0%20.5%20.5%16.7%,201123.4%22.4%18.2%20.5%20.5%18.6%23.9%20.9%18.4%24.2%19.3%24.7%20.4%18.8%15.7%19.3%21.0%21.7%18.3%,2012H24.9%25.2%18.5%24.0%21.7%18.3%26.4%20.9%21.9%27.0%17.4%27.7%25.7%22.1%1

38、9.4%21.7%23.2%23.7%21.3%,请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份公司免责声明。,8,行业研究报告/银行业,全部合计,23.5%,19.0%,20.4%,21.1%,23.3%,资料来源：公司公告，中国银河证券研究部表 6：拨备前利润环比下降 0.2%，增速分化明显,拨备前利润工行建行中行农行交行华夏民生中信浦发招行平安兴业光大宁波南京北京上市银行,12H178895152656106209126421475741014531283283552535834827104072830219692305531689765816112,11A YoY24.6%24.9%21.1%3

39、5.7%24.7%40.0%60.1%46.4%45.8%42.9%63.7%38.9%36.0%42.3%38.9%40.6%30.2%,12H YoY13.0%14.2%3.1%12.1%19.5%26.9%37.3%27.9%35.1%24.0%53.5%70.0%35.6%46.1%42.3%43.1%17.2%,11Q1 QoQ32.9%38.5%36.6%34.4%40.9%18.3%42.4%34.8%3.4%48.4%26.3%7.2%35.3%12.8%44.6%66.5%34.5%,11Q2 QoQ2.4%3.2%4.2%-0.2%-4.2%13.4%27.1%13.1%1

40、5.9%6.4%5.4%30.7%5.1%23.6%4.7%-0.3%4.4%,11Q3 QoQ-3.6%-2.3%-14.8%4.1%-2.0%2.2%-9.9%19.5%11.0%-1.7%23.9%-2.9%-11.2%5.5%-4.4%6.2%-2.4%,11Q4 QoQ-13.9%-19.4%-10.3%-15.3%-2.0%10.6%-1.0%-11.7%19.1%-11.1%-2.7%16.0%1.3%-3.9%22.7%-7.7%-10.6%,12Q1 QoQ35.0%37.3%38.2%33.9%30.3%-10.2%40.0%11.3%-10.1%37.4%22.9%18.

41、6%50.5%26.6%8.6%42.9%31.6%,12Q2 QoQ-0.7%7.9%-8.6%-9.7%-4.8%35.4%-3.6%5.2%11.8%0.2%2.0%24.4%-4.8%6.0%18.5%4.9%-0.2%,资料来源：公司公告，中国银河证券研究部表 7：营业收入环比增速 0.9%略超预期，因利息净收入增长抵消手续费净入增速放缓,百万元工行建行中行农行交行华夏民生中信浦发招行平安兴业光大宁波,12H2654862270051796272097337364219452514564417140003571191962641221304794962,11A YoY24.8%22.

42、8%18.5%30.1%21.8%37.0%50.4%38.0%36.2%34.7%64.5%37.8%29.7%34.7%,12H YoY14.1%15.8%8.1%13.9%18.9%22.6%32.4%25.1%25.5%24.0%61.7%57.1%32.9%36.5%,11Q1 QoQ11.4%8.6%12.3%10.7%7.0%9.5%16.5%7.8%8.8%11.2%19.6%-0.1%22.0%-3.8%,11Q2 QoQ4.4%3.5%-1.2%5.6%4.8%14.4%26.5%9.7%9.7%16.1%8.8%25.2%5.6%15.1%,11Q3 QoQ0.1%0.4

43、%-4.1%0.4%1.8%2.9%-1.6%9.1%4.6%-14.9%35.3%1.7%-7.1%6.4%,11Q4 QoQ3.7%0.8%4.7%3.7%1.6%2.9%3.7%6.6%6.7%17.3%4.4%26.6%11.6%9.2%,12Q1 QoQ6.1%8.7%14.6%8.5%11.5%0.8%13.0%0.9%7.0%9.7%8.7%2.4%23.6%6.3%,12Q2 QoQ2.6%7.0%-10.8%-3.9%1.7%15.3%5.5%3.8%0.9%1.2%1.8%14.3%1.9%6.5%,请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份公司免责声明。,9,行业研究报告/银行

44、业,南京北京上市银行,4772133071282061,33.8%27.1%27.2%,36.7%36.5%17.9%,23.7%11.9%10.6%,8.9%9.5%5.9%,-2.2%3.3%-0.3%,2.7%-7.5%4.6%,22.8%29.4%9.2%,12.7%11.2%0.9%,资料来源：公司公告，中国银河证券研究部表 8：利息净收入同比增长 19.6%，环比增速扩张 1.2 个百分点,利息净收入工行建行中行农行交行华夏民生中信浦发招行平安兴业光大宁波南京北京上市银行,12H2040581696921240541676855839417194378713692935606436

45、411615734608253084338384411730991109,11A YoY19.4%21.1%17.6%26.9%20.7%33.1%41.3%35.3%35.9%33.7%59.8%33.4%29.6%33.6%40.9%29.7%24.7%,12H YoY16.9%16.5%12.6%15.9%18.5%20.6%28.2%23.9%25.5%22.2%55.5%56.2%34.1%41.0%25.4%35.3%19.6%,11Q1 QoQ4.0%3.3%0.7%3.5%1.0%4.1%4.3%7.6%6.1%7.1%16.8%-7.7%12.2%3.4%12.2%2.2%3

46、.5%,11Q2 QoQ4.4%3.4%5.9%5.2%7.7%15.0%20.4%7.8%8.3%5.8%3.6%26.5%4.1%7.9%11.3%8.7%6.4%,11Q3 QoQ3.9%4.4%0.7%6.0%4.1%4.9%6.3%11.0%6.1%8.4%37.8%3.8%5.0%13.5%-0.5%7.3%5.1%,11Q4 QoQ3.3%5.5%6.4%6.6%0.4%0.5%5.6%5.7%11.3%3.9%4.4%22.4%3.5%7.3%14.4%8.5%5.6%,12Q1 QoQ3.3%0.7%-0.3%2.4%6.2%0.0%4.7%0.9%2.3%4.2%4.6%4

47、.2%16.4%5.6%-1.1%5.1%2.6%,12Q2 QoQ6.5%6.7%4.7%-4.6%5.9%13.7%-0.4%1.7%-0.3%2.5%3.1%11.2%8.0%11.3%11.5%12.3%3.8%,资料来源：公司公告，中国银河证券研究部表 9：手续费净收入增速明显放缓，中小行增速相对平缓手 续 费 净收,入工行建行中行农行交行华夏民生中信浦发招行平安,12H54804492433425038929109621999100305405387797322779,11A YoY39.4%31.5%18.7%49.0%35.0%105.9%82.2%55.1%65.9%37.9

48、%131.2%,12H YoY1.9%3.3%-2.1%4.8%9.1%30.9%26.7%38.7%17.6%19.2%134.0%,11Q1 QoQ41.9%32.7%41.4%46.7%29.9%144.7%61.0%18.4%18.2%23.1%10.6%,11Q2 QoQ7.5%5.9%-11.8%9.2%2.7%19.0%68.3%10.7%23.7%8.1%46.6%,11Q3 QoQ-12.1%-13.9%-3.3%-8.8%-1.7%-21.0%-22.0%12.6%-11.0%-12.7%76.0%,11Q4 QoQ-5.1%-13.8%-12.7%-21.3%-9.9%2

49、1.0%-14.7%14.2%10.5%1.6%-0.6%,12Q1 QoQ23.1%33.5%52.9%52.7%34.1%10.3%55.4%-0.2%2.6%28.6%17.3%,12Q2 QoQ-8.5%2.6%-38.1%-17.0%-18.5%28.6%-4.8%5.7%10.7%1.1%-8.1%,请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份公司免责声明。,10,行业研究报告/银行业,兴业光大宁波南京北京上市银行,621849384344891247235336,84.2%48.1%47.2%53.9%67.3%38.7%,64.0%29.9%73.3%41.9%39.5%7.6%,17

50、.5%93.3%38.5%55.1%99.2%39.3%,34.6%-1.2%-58.3%6.1%9.3%6.2%,-2.8%-18.0%443.9%1.4%-21.0%-9.3%,38.9%4.9%-82.8%-55.3%-38.0%-9.8%,-10.7%52.5%263.7%189.9%170.2%34.9%,37.1%-0.5%-26.7%9.9%1.8%-10.8%,资料来源：公司公告，中国银河证券研究部表 10：营业费用率同比下降 0.05 个百分点，营业税金增加抵消成本收入比下降营 业 费 用占,比工行建行中行农行交行华夏民生中信浦发招行平安兴业光大宁波南京北京上市银行,11Q1