麦肯锡给医药行业的报告.ppt
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1、McKinsey was commissioned in Q1,2003 to:provide dedicated effort in conducting in-depth market survey and collect detailed information from 4 cities within 2 provinces to identify the key growth drivers in Chinas broad market;4 product categories were included:G.I.(Motilium),OBGY(Gyno.),Nail Infecti
2、on(Sporanox)provide business model/proposal for XJP to capture the broad market,McKinsey Broad Market Study Process,Project design(Q1,2003)Project review with local and regional J-C team(Apr.03)Survey market selection(Apr.03)Field work in 2 cities in Shandong(May 03)1st interim report(mid-June 03)Fi
3、eld work in 2 cities in Sichuan(mid-June mid-July 03)2nd interim report and Killer Idea workshop(end July 03)Final report(Aug.03)Presentation to corporate management(Sept.03),BROAD MARKET CAN BE DEFINED AS CLASS 2 HOSPITALS AND BELOW AT REGIONAL CITY LEVEL AND ALL HEALTH CARE INSITITUTIONS AT COUNTY
4、 LEVEL AND BELOW,Regional city,County,Town,Village,Class 3 hospital,Class 2&below hospital,Pharmacy,Clinic,Broad market,Source:McKinsey analysis,BROAD MARKET DRUGS INCLUDE OTC AND“OUT PATIENT”Rx DRUGS,Source:McKinsey analysis,Targeting easily diagnosed,non-life threatening diseases,Easy to use,Relat
5、ively cheap,Relatively safe with few side effect,Examples,OTC,Mature,New,Motilium,Gyno-Daktarin,Rx,Outpatient,In-hospital,Sporanox/Sibelium,Cipramil,Broad market drugs,McKinsey Key FindingsOverall Market Situation,BROAD MARKET REPRESENTS 94%OF OVERALL DEMAND FOR BROAD MARKET DRUGS,Class 3 hospital,B
6、road market drug sales breakdown by geographyPercent,*For only 2 according cities*Data for only Sichuan provinceSource:Interview with distributors,hospitals,pharmacies McKinsey analysis,All 4 cities,Broad market represents 94%of demand,100%=,3.6,2.3,1.3,Bn RMB,Shandong*,Sichuan*,City,100%=,21,6,2,Mn
7、 RMB,County,Town,Village,Motilium,Gyno-Daktarin,Sibelium*,Broad market,Sales breakdown of XJP productPercent,Other channel at city level,GDP per capita:#of county,9,19932,11,30018,5,80114,County is critical for broad market,DUE TO LOW INSURANCE COVERAGE AND RECENT REIMBURSEMENT POLICIY CHANGES,MOST
8、PATIENTS PAY BROAD MARKET DRUGS BY THEMSELVES,Insurance coverage in Yantai&Jining,For those with insurance,they can use their personal accounts(RMB 100300 per year)to cover their broad market drug expenseIn loosely controlled region(like Yantai),patients can treat the personal accounts as savings ac
9、countPatients pay on their own after the account balance is zeroA majority of population does not have insuranceThey pay broad market drugs by themselves,Insured,Self-pay,Total,City,County,Town,Village,3-5,95-97,20-30,70-80,10-15,85-90,1,99,0,100,Source:Interview;focus group;McKinsey analysis,PATIEN
10、TS GO TO PHARMACY/CLINICS FOR MINOR SYMPTOMS,Source:Interview;McKinsey analysis,Drivers,Increased price sensitivityChanged medical insurance policyImproved highway infrastructureRich information accessTVNewspaperIncreased life paceNo time to visit hospitalPharmaceutical market deregulation policyMor
11、e and more pharmacies&clinicsConveniently located,Severe symptoms,Town hospital,Minor symptoms,Largest hospitals in city and county,Middle-small hospitals in city and county,Pharmacy/clinics,Rural patients,City patients,A LARGE PROPORTION OF DRUG SALES COMES FROM RETAIL PHARMACIES;PHARMACY CLERKS BE
12、COME INFLUENTIAL,*40%of the patients changed their mind in pharmacySource:Interview;Focus group;McKinsey analysis,“What makes you change your perceived drugs?”*Pharmacy patient surveyPercent,Shandong city level,Perceived drug not available;persuaded by pharmacy clerk,Perceived drug available but per
13、suaded by pharmacy clerk,Changed mind by myself,“When I go to the pharmacy without a drug in mind,I just ask the pharmacy clerk to recommend.Then I will check the drugs introduction sheet,if this drug covers my disease,I will have a try”Yibin city level focus group,Total drug sales breakdownPercent,
14、Pharmacy,Hospital,Clinics,Overall,Motilium,Gyno Daktarin,Sibelium,CLINICS ARE PLAYING IMPORTANT ROLE ESPECIALLY AT COUNTY AND TOWN AND BELOW,Source:Interview;McKinsey analysis,Clinics share in total drug salesPercent,Overall,County,Town,Village,36%,26,34,100,Sichuan,Shandong,City,8,27%,8,27,100,3,G.
15、I.Category Review,*More than half of patients going to large hospitals will purchase drug at retail pharmacies*Branded generic drugs referring to generic drugs that run advertising,creating brand awareness in consumersSource:Physician and pharmacy interviews;McKinsey analysis,FOR GI DISFUNCTION DRUG
16、S AS A WHOLE THERE IS SIGNIFICANT LATENT DEMAND;PEOPLE GENERALLY SEEK TREATMENT IN CLINICS AND PHARMACIES,Latent market demand 60%of total patients do not seek any treatmentAs market leader,increasing awareness for Motilium to further boost treatment rate is one of the key demand levers Small clinic
17、s and pharmacies are important channels75%of patients seeking treatment go to clinics and pharmacies,Total incidence,Do not seek treatment,Go to large hospital*,Go tosmall clinic,Self medicate at pharmacy,Seek treatment,Not aware,Percent,Motiliums market share,Motilium has a vast room for grow becau
18、se of significant leakage along the patient flow60%of GI patients that do seek treatmentCurrent market share of 4%which could be grown furtherAmong the 40%people who seek GI treatment,about 30%would buy banded generic drugs*,while the rest would buy non-brand generic drugs,1.6%,FOR GI DRUGS,POLARIZA
19、TION IS BECOMING MORE OBVIOUS,Anecdotes,Quantitative examples,Sub-TA sales by channelPercent,Source:Hospital pharmacy interviews;retail pharmacy interviews;McKinsey analysis,1997,1999,2002,Retail Pharmacy,Hospital,Clinic,“Unlike things in the past,patients nowadays generally try to avoid coming to h
20、ospitals because of hospitals expensive charges.For GI disease,most people can judge by themselves.So they usually prefer to go to pharmacies or clinics to buy drugs.”Qixia GI physician interview,“Most GI patients are repeating patients.They know which drugs to buy,and where the drugs are cheap.So u
21、sually they will choose pharmacies&clinics.”Jining retail pharmacist interview,Yantai,1997,1999,2002,Retail Pharmacy,Hospital,Clinic,Jining,Importance of GI drug sales in hospital is diminishingRetail pharmacy would be the major battle field for GI drugs,ROUGH ESTIMATION,SALES OF GI DRUGS ARE MORE C
22、ONCENTRATED TOWARDS VILLAGE AND COUNTY,WHILE THE MARKET IS FRAGMENTED WITH MANY DIFFERENT DRUGS,Percent,Motilium,Weiershu(谓尔舒),Mosapride(莫沙比利),Tidines*(替丁类药),Others*,Sidashu(斯达舒),*Others including more than 200 different GI drugs such as Kuiweipian(快胃片)、Weifuan(w胃复安)、Jinweixiaoshipian(健胃消食片)、999(三九胃
23、泰)、丹桂香、胃舒平、健胃酵母片、果胶铋、邦消安、调胃片、胃气痛片、湿胃舒、养胃舒,and many other cheap non-branded generic drugs*Including Cimetadine,Ramitidine McKinsey analysis,Total=RMB 243.05 million,Village,County,Town,City,IN BROAD MARKET,MOTILIUM IS LOSING OUT BIG TIME IN RETAIL PHARMACY CHANNEL,Retail pharmacy,Hospital,Clinic,Sour
24、ce:Distributor interviews;hospital pharmacy interviews;retail pharmacy interviews;McKinsey analysis,Sales by channelMn RMB,%,Motilium,Sidashu(斯达舒),Weiershu(谓尔舒),Mosapride(莫沙比利),Tidines(替丁类药),GI drugs,12,35,53,243.05,14,34,52,9.83,6,66,29,6.62,5,76,20,7.30,40,38,21,7.93,4,22,73,44.64,YANTAI&JINING,AN
25、D IN COUNTY GEOGRAPHY,City,County,Town,Village,Source:Distributor interviews;hospital pharmacy interviews;retail pharmacy interviews;McKinsey analysis,Sales by strataMn RMB,%,Motilium,Sidashu(斯达舒),Weiershu(谓尔舒),Mosapride(莫沙比利),Tidines(替丁类药),GI drugs,15,26,19,243.05,41,15,22,20,9.83,43,22,37,26,6.62,
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