GLOBAL_MACRO：THURSDAY_31ST_JANUARY_2013-2013-02-01.ppt

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1、Section Heading,Section Heading,Section Heading,2.4,5.2,CREDIT,Deutsche BankMarkets Research,Global,PeriodicalDB Today-Global/Macro,Greg Poole,Amy Wei,Thursday 31st January 2013,(+1)212 250-9902Table Of CChristopher DiPaola,(+1)212 250-Page 00,(+1)212 250-Section HeadingSection Heading,Page 00Page 0

2、0Page 00Page 00,MACRO HIGHLIGHTS,GLOBAL MARKET WRAP,Europe Global Economic Perspectives Peter HooperThe continuing housing recovery is critical for US economic growth in 2013.Indeed,in addition to the direct implications for residential investment for GDP,house prices are crucial for household and b

3、anking sector balance sheets and,therefore,for consumer spending and credit conditions in the year ahead.Webelieve that 2012 marked a turning point in the housing market recovery andexpect housing to be an important engine of growth in 2013.We project thathouse prices will rise 3.9%y/y,and the resul

4、ting wealth effect will add about$85bn to real personal consumption expenditures.Details on page 8,INDEXS&P 500NASDAQDOWDJ STOXX 50FTSE 100 INDEXHANG SENG INDEXMSCI Asia ex JapanBRAZIL BOVESPARTS-2 INDEX,Close1501.963142.3113910.422722.946299.9223729.53558.1659336.701664.59,1D%Chg-0.4-0.4-0.3-0.3-0.

5、4-0.40.5-1.8-0.2,YTD%Chg5.34.16.23.36.84.71.9-2.75.6,Europe Insight Europe Marcel Cassard,COMMODITY PRICES,The euro crisis bears a striking resemblance to the experience of Japan in the1990s.This has led to a popular view that a number of the distinctive features ofthe eurozone today are similar to

6、those of Japan during the 1990s crisis andbeyond,and that the eurozone risks remaining stuck in a Japan-likeenvironment of low growth coupled with low inflation.In this note,we arguethat while the Japanese experience may share some characteristics with theeurozone,we do not believe the latter will e

7、volve in a similar manner.Details onpage 9,COMMODITIESWest TexasBrentCRBCopperGold(Spot)Alum.(LME)Baltic Dry,Close97.94115.61304.75376.901675.452104.00767.00,1D%Chg0.4-0.31.00.5-0.12.1-1.5,YTD%Chg6.73.33.33.20.01.59.7,Credit Strategy Early Morning Reid Jim ReidIf you ignore the negative factors US G

8、DP was pretty strong yesterday and ifyou ignore the fact that Im now bald,then it doesnt look like Ive been ageingmuch in recent years.Joking aside,the reality was that the drags to growth(Q4-0.1%vs 1.1%expected)were likely one-offs(more than I can say for mybaldness).Govt spending and inventories b

9、oth subtracted 1.3pps from growth.The former possibly due to early sequester effects(in defence)due to the fiscalcliff turmoil and the latter likely due to hurricane Sandy.Economists andstrategists largely highlighted the 3.3%saar final sales to domestic privatepurchasers as the main reason for opti

10、mism in the report.However its possiblethat some income was brought forward ahead of fiscal cliff tax rises so thereport wasnt straight forward to decipher.Details on page 10FX Strategy FX Daily Alan Ruskin,FOREIGN EXCHANGE PRICESFOREX(vs US$)CloseHK$7.76EUR 1.36JPY 90.92GBP 1.58Source:BloombergDERI

11、VATIVESSPX 3M Mat ATM-Strike Imp VolSPX 3M Mat 90%-110%IV SkewSPX 3m Mat Realized VolSource:Bloomberg,1D%Chg0.00.00.20.1CurrentValue12.928.0012.27,YTD%Chg-0.12.8-4.6-2.7%-ileRank41.2,Todays RBNZ statement makes upcoming housing data of even greater,importance than usual.We have long argued that the

12、state of the NZ housingmarket is one of the key domestic influences on NZD trends.In particular it canbe seen that trends in house sales have been a key leading indicator of NZD not least as they have been a key leading guide to the outlook for RBNZ policy.Details on page 11Contd on next page,Credit

13、CDX.NA.IGITRX.EuropeCDX.NA.HYITRAX.XOVERSOVX.WESource:Deutsche Bank,Close90.33111.17102.10438.52100.87,1D%Chg4.7-0.4-0.71.51.4,YTD%Chg4.1-0.4-0.76.41.4,_Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.Thus,investors shouldbe awa

14、re that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors shouldconsider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.DISCLOSURES AND ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.MICA(P)072/04/2012.,Lee,31 January 2013DB

15、 Today-Global/MacroMACRO HIGHLIGHTSCommodities Global Commodities Daily Xiao FuIndustrial metals rallied across the board with copper and nickel breaking key technical levels yesterday,mainly afunction of SHFE advances,USD weakness and CTA buying in our view.Gold and silver surged after the US relea

16、sedthe worst QoQ real GDP growth since June 2009.Golds rally was exacerbated by a short squeeze as the market waslittle prepared for the US GDP disappointment.Post the US Fed FOMC meeting,gold initially spiked,then fell back,butclosed near its highs.Details on page 12Japan Economics Japan FI Morning

17、 Memo Makoto YamashitaFutures fell for a third straight day on the 30th.Futures opened flat and were sold briefly as the Nikkei Average rose byover 200 points,but were supported by dipbuying on the downside.Yesterdays US Oct-Dec GDP fell 0.1%QoQ,dragged down mainly by the public sector,with the priv

18、ate sector continuing to grow strongly.The US ADPemployment report for January rose 192,000 MoM,indicating firm growth in employment.We forecast January non-farm payrolls to rise by 170,000.The FOMC statement said the Fed would maintain its policy and monitor upcomingeconomic data despite noting tha

19、t economic activity had paused in recent months,mainly due to weather-relateddisruptions and other transitory factors.Details on page 13US Economics-US Daily Economics Notes Joseph LaVorgnaAt first glance,the initial print on Q4 GDP showed a jarring stall.Real output declined-0.1%,thereby registerin

20、g the firstdrop since Q2 2009.However,the details present a much different read on underlying economic health.The headlineGDP weakness was predominantly due to three factors:Inventory accumulation slowed sharply last quarter(+$20.0Bvs.+$60.3B),thereby lopping 1.3%from overall growth.This was largely

21、 expected and was the result of supply chaindisruptions following Hurricane Sandy and the Midwest drought.The other main drag came from government,spending,which fell,-15.0%in the quarter as a result of a-22.2%contraction in defense spending.This appears to,be a defense sector pullback in anticipati

22、on of the looming spending cuts.Government purchases also reducedheadline growth by-1.3%.While there may be additional government spending cuts ahead(depending on theresolution of the sequestrations),the inventory drag is likely to be a one-time event.The remaining drag came fromexports,which declin

23、ed-5.7%and subtracted-0.8%from growth.This was the first time exports subtracted from GDPsince trade collapsed during the recessionthe last time this occurred was Q1 2009.Details on page 14KEY COMPANY RESEARCHASIA,China/HK Consumer andMedia Anne LingHong Kong banks-SophiaPage2,Prefer discretionaries

24、 over staples into the Year of Snake.As we get ready for the Year ofSnake,we expect discretionary stocks to outperform staples,given their better sales growthprospects and more attractive valuations.This preference is despite the fact that mostdiscretionary stocks have performed relatively well over

25、 the past three months a trend weexpect to continue.While we believe overall consumption will rise on improving macro,industry dynamics cannot be ignored,especially as operators increase investments to remainrelevant to consumers.We therefore stay selective,and our top picks are CTF,Hengan,LOccitane

26、 and Wumart.Details on page 15RMB offshore market-Potential RMB revenue pool could expand fourfold for the sector.Qianhai cross border lending started with a RMB2bn quota,but we think under a blue skyscenario,continued policy measures could expand the RMB revenue pool fourfold toRMB15.3bn on full ut

27、ilization of deposit base(RMB800bn by end-2013).This would increasethe profit pool of Hong Kong banks by 10%,but for BOC(HK)with greater market share,theimpact could be as much as 13.7%net profit boost.Positive sentiment has resulted inaverage 8%share price increase YTD for Hong Kong banks.This year

28、,CNH bond issuanceshould increase 20%to RMB210bn,with fee income pool of HKD1.9bn.Buy BOC(HK).Details on page 16Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.,Krukowski,31 January 2013DB Today-Global/MacroKEY COMPANY RESEARCHEMERGING EUROPE,Polish utilities Tomasz,Industry macro still challenging;upgrading Tauron to

29、 Hold.Fundamentals of Polish utilities,have continued to deteriorate recently,reflected by the sectors underperformance.While webelieve the trough is already on the horizon,the recovery outlook is still uncertain unlessgrowth resumes in the Polish economy.Hopes for improvement in capital discipline,

30、whichwe believe could reverse negative sentiment on the sector,have not materialized so far.Asharp decline in green certificate prices appears to be the only short-term positive,benefitinglarge energy sellers.On that,we upgrade Tauron to Hold from Sell.We reiterate Buy on PGEand Hold on ENEA.Details

31、 on page 17EUROPE,E.ON Alexander Karnick,First take-not turned the corner yet.E.ON released its investor day statement ahead of the,presentation at 2pm UK today,which looks broadly in-line with our expectations.E.ONguides for 2013e EBITDA of E9.2-9.8bn(midpoint 9.5bn).DBe and Cons stand at the upper

32、-end(E9.7-9.8bn).E.ON guides to E1.15-E1.35 EPS(midpoint E1.25)vs.DBe at E1.22.TheCons avg is still higher(E1.40),but buy-side expectations were more in towards E1.20 inour view.Guidance is thus broadly in line.We want to point out the wide range in 2013guidance despite 90%forward contracting of pow

33、er.The range likely factors-in E&P ramp-up and pricing risk,as well as the timing of disposals(the full-year dilution is E2.2bn,but dueto slightly later timing of transaction closures the effect might be slightly less for 2013).Wenote while E.ON may include a slightly lower dilution impact,the upper

34、-end of its guidance isin line with our estimate.E.ON replaced the E1.1 dividend floor for 2013e(8.5%yield)withits long-term payout ratio of 50-60%(was widely expected).We see our E0.7 div estimateconfirmed(5.4%yield).The pay-out ratio is maintained for the years beyond 2013e too.Details on page 18N

35、ORTH AMERICA,Kinder Morgan CurtLauner,Analyst Day Highlights:All Systems Are Go.Kinder Morgan held their annual Analyst Day inHouston on January 30 and provided voluminous detail,information and commentary foreach of its business units and the outlook for the KMI,KMP,KMR,and EPB entities.We alsoprov

36、ide information on the KMP acquisition of CPNO that was announced on January 29(please see comments on page 2).With CPNO adding$1 billion to the organic growthprofile,KM shows$13.6 billion of growth projects for the next five years across its businessunits.At the bottom line,KM showed revised long-t

37、erm growth rates in distribution anddividends for the next 3-5 years of 5-6%for KMP and EPB and 9-10%growth for KMI.Weview this as a re-set of the 7%for KMP and 12%that were in place since the El Paso deal.Our models continue to support 6-8%growth at KMP and 13%growth at KMI and we wouldnote the dis

38、cussion of lower cost of capital by KM at the meeting of 7.3%currentlycompared to the past five years as an indication that the growth targets may be exceeded.This factor is discussed further below in the context of reduced capital cost at the same timeas committed project returns have been stable t

39、o rising.With the updates and Analyst Dayinformation in place,we continue to rate KMI Buy with a target price of$48,KMP is ratedBuy with a target price of$98,and EPB is rated Hold with a target price of$41.Details onpage 19,Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.,Page3,31 January 2013DB Today-Global/MacroTODA

40、YS HEADLINESMarkets:Equities a little softer in Europe,fade late to also end down in the US,dollar weakens.US:FOMC leaves policy/stance unchanged.US:GDP falls 0.1%saar in Q4,below mkt,as inventories,govt spending&exports weigh.US:ADP private payrolls rise 192k in Jan,above mkt.EMU:EC economic sentim

41、ent index up 1.4pts to 89.2 in Jan,above mkt.EMU:ECB Bank lending survey points to tighter lending standards for households in Jan.UK:M4 growth up 0.7%mom in Dec,down 1.0%yoy.UK:Mortgage approvals up 55.8K in Dec,above mkt.UK:Gfk consumer confidence rises 3pts to-26 in Jan.ITA:Economic sentiment up

42、4.3pts to 79.9 in Jan.ESP:GDP down 0.7%qoq/1.8%yoy in Q4,below mkt.NOR:Unemployment rate up 0.2pp to 3.5%in Nov,above mkt.NZL:RBNZ leaves OCR at 2.5%,as expected.AUS:Private sector credit rises 0.4%mom in Dec.JN:IP rises 2.5%mom in Dec,below mkt,firms forecast output to rise 2.6%in Jan and 2.3%in Fe

43、b.JN:Manu.PMI rises 2.7pts to 47.7 in Jan,above mkt.JN:Vehicle production falls 17.2%yoy in Dec.THE DAY AHEAD.US:Challenger Job Cuts(Jan),Employment Cost Index(Q4),Initial Jobless Claims,Personal Income/Spending(Dec),Chicago PMI(Jan)CAN:GDP(Nov),Industrial Product Price(Dec)EMU:ECBs Liikanen&Constan

44、cio to speakUK:Nwide house prices(Jan)DEU:Retail Sales(Dec),Unemploy.(Jan),HICP(Jan P)FRA:Consumer Spending(Dec),PPI(Dec)ITA:PPI(Dec)ESP:HICP(Jan P)DNK:Unemployment Rate-(Dec)NOR:Credit Indicator Growth(Dec),Retail sales(Dec)JN:Housing Starts(Dec),Construction Orders(Dec)Source:Excerpts from DB Dail

45、y published on 31 January 2013,Page4,Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.,31 January 2013DB Today-Global/MacroFORECASTG7 Quarterly GDP growth,%qoq saar/annual:%yoyUSJapanEurolandGermanyFranceItalyUKCanadaG7,Q1 122.05.7-0.12.0-0.1-3.1-1.21.71.8,Q2 121.3-0.1-0.71.1-0.2-2.9-1.51.70.4,Q3 12F2.7-3.5-0.20.90.9-0

46、.83.90.61.1,Q4 12F1.3-1.2-1.7-1.2-1.2-2.3-0.62.10.1,20122.22.0-0.50.80.1-2.1-0.12.01.4,Q1 13F1.51.2-0.50.0-0.7-1.20.62.20.9,Q2 13F2.02.40.30.8-0.1-0.31.12.91.6,Q3 13F2.82.60.91.60.30.61.43.22.2,Q4 13F3.02.71.20.80.60.91.72.82.3,2013F1.90.6-0.30.3-0.3-0.90.92.31.2,2014F2.90.61.11.51.00.51.83.12.1,Sou

47、rces:National authorities,Deutsche BankCommodities,USDWTI(bbl)Brent(bbl)US Natural Gas(mmBtu)GoldSilver,Q1 1390.00108.003.80172533,Q2 1395.00112.003.60182536,Q3 13100.00115.003.70187538,Q4 13100.00115.003.90195040,201396.25112.503.75185637,2014103.25113.254.25190038,2015100.00110.004.50180036,Alumin

48、ium,USc/lbUSD/t,95.32100,102.12250,97.52150,90.72000,96.42125,99.82200,99.82200,Copper,0,USc/lbUSD/t,372.18200,385.78500,363.08000,353.97800,368.68125,340.37500,328.97250,Source:Deutsche Bank,Figures are period averagesCENTRAL BANK POLICY,Current,Dec-12,Mar-13,Sept-13,USEurolandJapanUKChinaIndia,0-0

49、.250.750.100.503.008.00,0-0.250.750.100.503.008.00,0-0.250.500.100.503.007.75,0-0.250.500.100.503.007.00,Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.,Page5,-,-,-,-,-,-,31 January 2013DB Today-Global/MacroFORECAST-ContinuedFOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES,Countries,Spot Rate,3M,6M,12M,USEuroJapanUKSwitzerlandChina,DB US$Inde

50、x(Fwd.Rates)US$/Euro(Fwd.Rates)Yen/US$(Fwd.Rates)US$/(Fwd.Rates)Sfr/US$(Fwd.Rates)CNY/USD(Fwd.Rates),66-1.3079.8-1.600.936.34,66-1.351.3082781.611.620.900.936.356.35,67-1.311.3084781.571.620.920.936.296.37,701.241.3088781.521.620.990.936.166.41,GOVERNMENT RATES,Current,Q4 2012,Q1 2013,Q3 2013,US 10Y