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1、精选优质文档-倾情为你奉上宁波大红鹰学院毕业论文外文翻译所在学院： 经济与管理学院 专 业： 国际经济与贸易 班 级： 09国贸8班 学 号： 091350816 姓 名： 黄晓凡 指导教师： 陆清卿 2012年 11 月 30 日专心-专注-专业译文1：国际服务贸易与经济增长的理论与实证研究国际贸易与经济增长始终是国际经济学最生动的论题之一。自20世纪80年代以来，世界经济由原来倚重自然资源和制造业的国别型经济正在向倚重信息资源和服务业的全球和区域型经济过渡。随着1994年服务贸易总协定(GATS)的签署，服务贸易自由化的制度安排使得世界各国不可避免地卷入服务的国际分工和交换进程中,服务贸易

2、和投资良性互动推动经济迅速增长已是不争的事实。因此，服务贸易和投资对发达国家和发展中国家经济增长的推动作用是一个统计现象，还是带有普遍意义的经济增长规律？对此问题给予理论解释和实证分析无疑具有重要的政策涵义。对于 “国际服务贸易驱动经济增长”命题，理论分析认为，服务贸易不是经济增长的直接解释变量，但能通过影响主要增长要素和技术进步而间接作用于经济增长只不过在不同的经济发展阶段其作用方式和作用机理不同。在特定的经济发展阶段，服务贸易（包括投资）可对一国要素供给、技术进步产生静态和动态影响，进而促使其国内资源禀赋结构的变动。企业按照比较优势的动态变化路径选择产业、技术结构和贸易模式，由此推动贸易结

3、构、产业结构、技术结构的升级以及增长方式的转变，最终推进经济发展阶段向高级阶段的逐步转换。从服务贸易和投资的作用机理看，服务贸易和投资通过物质资本积累效应、人力资本效应、技术进步效应、制度变迁效应、就业效应以及技术的外部性等路径影响一国的要素供给和技术进步，从而影响其资源禀赋结构的变动和贸易、产业结构的升级。这种影响的动态效应大于静态效应，外部效应大于内部效应且服务业FDI的技术外溢效应大于狭义服务贸易（包括跨境交付、过境消费和自然人流动）的技术外溢效应。对服务贸易作用于经济增长内在机理的研究。首先，对世界不同经济体和代表性国家进行因果关系检验。结果表明，无论是世界总体、发达国家以及发展中国家

4、，还是美国和中国均表现出：服务贸易与经济增长存有因果关系。发达经济体、中国的服务贸易是经济增长的原因；世界经济总体、发展经济体则表现出经济增长成为服务贸易的原因：美国的服务贸易出口是经济增长的原因，而经济增长是服务贸易进口的原因。从这个意义上说，服务业的开放有利于一国经济增长，并且服务贸易和投资对经济增长的影响程度与特定的经济发展阶段相关。其次，与已有的研究不同，为了进一步验证服务贸易和投资是如何作用于经济增长以及作用的强度，分别对美国和中国做了实证研究。结果显示，美国服务贸易对经济增长的影响路径由强到弱依次为：就业效应、人力资本效应、物质资本效应。技术效应、制度效应的影响作用相对较弱。中国的

5、实证分析结果可归纳为：服务出口对就业、物质资本积累和制度等效应的作用很大，而人力资本和技术效应影响不显著；服务进口额带来的技术效应、制度效应和就业效应大，人力资本效应和物质资本效应则不显著；服务业FDI的技术效应、人力资本效应和制度效应较为显著，就业效应和物质资本效应较小。并且从作用强度看，总体上服务业FDI路径的影响作用大于服务进口，服务进口又大于服务出口。根据实证检验可得出以下结论：狭义服务贸易通过服务的进出口路径对一国要素供给产生静态和动态影响，进而促使其国内资源禀赋结构的变动。服务业对外直接投资是服务业中最重要的跨境交易方式之一，因而服务业国际直接投资是影响一国要素供给优势转换的另一条

6、重要途径。值得注意的是，上述渠道对处于不同经济发展阶段的国家影响不同，其影响效应的充分发挥要依赖于特定的约束条件。各影响因素的投入与产出之间不是绝对的函数对应关系，而是互相影响形成无数反馈链共同作用于经济增长。基于我国经济正处于工业化初级阶段向中级阶段转换时期的判断，以及现阶段服务贸易和投资的比较优劣势和区位优劣势的评判，认为中国应选择“偏保护的管理服务贸易”政策，并采取相应的政策措施。包括：确立三次产业协调发展的科学发展观，为服务贸易奠定坚实的产业基础；制定服务贸易发展战略规划，分层次逐步开放服务贸易市场；准确把握服务产业的国际转移规律，改善服务业利用外资的区位环境。原文1：The rese

7、arch of international service trade and economic growth theoryThe study of the relation between international trade and economic growth is one of the most active issues. Since 1980s, the world has been in transition from national economy orientating towards natural resources and manufacturing indust

8、ry to global and regional economy orientating towards information resources and service industry. After the signature of GATS in1994, the institutional arrangements on liberalizing service trade result in a world-wide involvement division and exchanges of service trade, and it is undoubtedly that th

9、e positive interaction between service trade and investment leads to economic growth. But the theoretical research on service trade lags behind practice.Is it a statistic phenomenon or a universal rule of economic growth? To approach the above two issues from theoretical and empirical perspective is

10、 of great value to policy-making.For the proposition of that International service trade will drive economic growth. Theoretical analysis shows that although service trade is not a direct interpretative variable to economic growth, it can effect economic growth indirectly through other growing facto

11、rs and technology upgrade, but the ways and mechanisms are different in different stages. In a certain stage of economic development, service trade (including investment) will have static and dynamic effect on factors supply and technology upgrade in one county, which will lead to the domestic alter

12、ation of resources condition structure. It is the enterprises that select industry structure, technology structure and trade structure according to dynamic alteration way of comparative technology structure and trade structure, which will ultimately promote evolution of economic growth gradually. So

13、 far as operational mechanism of service trade and investment is concerned, service trade affects factors supply in one country by physical capital accumulating effect, human capital effect, technology upgrade effect, institutional transition effect, employment effect and externality of technology,

14、then influences the upgrade of industrial structure, the upgrade of technological structure and the transition of mode of economic growth. It is obvious that dynamic effect is greater than static effect; that external effect is playing more important role than internal effect; and that technology sp

15、illover effect of foreign direct investment in service industry is greater than that of service trade in a narrow sense (including across-border supply, consumption abroad and movement of natural person).For the research of mechanism about how service trade drive economic growth. Firstly, the paper

16、verifies the causality between service trade and economic growths concerning different economic bodies and the representative countries. The results show that there are causalities between international service trade and economic growth in the whole world, in the developed countries, in the US and i

17、n china. In the developing countries, service trade is the Granger cause of economic growth; In the whole world and the developing countries, economic growth is the Granger cause of service trade; In the US, service export is the Granger cause of economic growth, and economic growth is the Granger c

18、ause of service import. On this basis, it is concluded that the opening of service industry will benefit economic growth in one country. Secondly, in order to explore on how the service trade and investment act on economic growth, empirical studies are employed to explain the case of US and that of

19、China. The results show that the routes by which service trade affects economic growth in the US can be rowed as follows from more significant to less: employment effect, human capital effect, physical capital effect, technology effect, institution effect. The results of empirical analysis of China

20、can be summarized that: the routes by which service export affects economic growth can be rowed as follows: employment effect, physical capital effect, institution effect, human capital effect, technology effect; the routs by which service import affects economic growth can be rowed as follows: tech

21、nology effect, institution effect, employment effect, human capital effect, physical capital effect; the routes by which FDI in service affects economic growth can be rowed as follows: technology effect, human capital effect, institution effect, employment effect, physical capital effect. Moreover,

22、the effect of FDI in service is stronger than service import, and the effect of service import is stronger than service export. According to the empirical test in this paper, the conclusion can be drawn as follows: service trade in a narrow sense will have static and dynamic effects on factor supply

23、 in one country through import and export of service, FDI in service industry is one of the most important cross-border transactions and is another important channel which will affect the transition of advantages on factor supply in one country. It should be emphasized that the above-mentioned chann

24、els will have different effects on countries at different stages of economic development. Whether the roles can be brought into play or not depends on given restraints. The input output of factors themselves cannot form a clear function, but will interact together and act on economic growth hand in

25、hand through numerous feedback chain. Chinese economy is now undergoing transformation from elementary age to middle age of industrialization. Service trade and investment in current period have both advantages and disadvantages. Based on these judgments, we propose that China should pursue a policy

26、 favoring protectionism on management of service trade and adopt relevant countermeasures as follows. Scientific development view should be formed with an eye to harmonizing development of three industries so as to lay a solid industries foundation for service trade; The strategic programming should

27、 be stipulated and the market of service trade should be opened gradually; The rule of international transfer of service trade should be mastered and environment of utilizing foreign investment on service industry should be improved. 译文2：服务贸易对经济增长的影响研究综述随着世界服务型经济特征的逐步凸显, 源于产业结构升级的服务贸易得到了迅速发展, 服务贸易的规

28、模正在快速扩张。从统计数据来看, 世界服务贸易出口总额从 1980 年的 3650 亿美元迅速上升至2008 年的 37779 亿美元, 增长了 9. 35 倍。相比于具有悠久历史的货物贸易而言, 服务贸易是一种新型的贸易形式, 随着其绝对规模和相对低位的不断提升, 服务贸易已经成为现代社会备受关注的一个焦点。一、 总体服务贸易对经济增长的影响按照 WTO 于 1994 年签署的服务贸易总协定( GAT S) 的规定, 服务贸易包括跨境交付( Cross- border Supply ) 、境外 消 费 ( Consumption Abroad) 、商业存在( Commercial Prese

29、nce) 和自然人流动( M ovement o f Natural Perso ns) 四种模式, 这四种模式的服务贸易具有完全不同的属性和特点。因此, 建立统一的服务贸易影响经济增长的理论框架存在较大的难度, 相应的文献十分鲜见, 仅有的国外文献主要有 Robinson et al. ( 2002) , 他们简单地把服务贸易看成商品贸易, 不考虑四种贸易模式的差异, 运用可计算一般均衡( Computable GeneralEquilibrium, CGE) 模型研究了服务贸易自由化所产生的经济增长效应。用实证的方法研究总体服务贸易影响经济增长的文献较多, 但此类研究以国内学者居多。研究显

30、示, 中国总体服务贸易对经济增长的平均贡献份额为 18. 9% 。二、 不同行业服务贸易对经济增长的影响目前分行业研究服务贸易影响经济增长的文献大多集中于金融、电信和医疗卫生等服务部门, 这些研究基本取得了较为一致的结论, 即服务业部门的开放或者生产率的提高能够显著地促进经济增长。例如, Beck et al. ( 1998) 、M urinde & Ryan( 2003) 和Eschenbach( 2004) 等的研究认为, 金融部门的开放在一定程度上打破了本国金融市场的垄断, 促使金融市场进入有序竞争的正常发展轨道, 生产率得以提高, 并最终促使了本国的经济增长。Kim( 2000)借助于

31、韩国的投入产出数据研究了分销部门服务贸易的开展与全要素生产率( TFP) 增长之间的关系,结果表明, 服务贸易的自由化不仅显著促进了其本身全要素生产率的提升, 同时也促进了相关制造业部门全要素生产率的提升, 服务贸易所带来的全要素生产率增长几乎覆盖了整个经济部门。三、不同交易模式的服务贸易对经济增长的影响 分具体交易模式并且从理论上研究服务贸易影响经济增长的文献为数不多, Carr et al. ( 2001)& M arkusen et al. ( 2005) 借助于 CGE 模型, 从理论上考察了以商业存在模式开展的服务贸易对经济增长的影响, 结果表明, 服务贸易的开放是一国经济福利增加的

32、重要来源, 从经济福利的角度来看, 服务贸易的开放是大势所趋。随后, 运用 CGE 模型从理论上考察服务贸易影响经济增长的方法开始盛行, 例如, Rutherford et al. ( 2005) 利用 CGE 模型对俄罗斯的 入世 效应进行了评估 分析, Ko nan &Maskus( 2006) 利用 CGE 模型研究了突尼斯消除服务贸易壁垒的潜在效应, 他们的研究结论均表明, 一国经济福利水平的增加可以得益于服务市场的开放, 而消除服务业 FDI 市场准入壁垒则是四种贸易模式中最为重要的自由化举措, 是一国福利增加的主要来源。 用实证方法研究具体模式的服务贸易与经济增长关系的文献较多。在

33、四种模式的服务贸易中, 商业存在是最为重要的一种, 而且从数据可获得性的角度来看, 尽管统计数据依然不甚精确, 但是商业存在服务贸易是以服务业 FDI 作为载体来实现的, 研究者可以用服务业 FDI 数据来表征这种模式的服务贸易规模, 这种贸易模式也就受到了较多的关注。其中, Markusen( 1989) 认为, 商业存在服务贸易的开展具有正负两个方面的效应, 正面效应是指服务部门的竞争导致了国内对该部门生产要素的需求增加而有利于产出增长, 即市场规模效应，负面效应是指服务行业国内市场竞争的加剧导致本国服务性企业退出市场, 即产生了挤出效应。Markusen( 1989) 的研究表明, 服务

34、市场开放后的市场规模效应要远远超过挤出效应, 在抵消掉挤出效应后依然能够促使非服务业部门生产率的提升, 并且进一步导致了本国货物贸易结构的变化, 那些原先生产率低下并且依赖于进口的部门会演变为高生产率的出口部门, 这与目前关于生产者服务业与制造业互动发展的最新研究结论颇为相似。得出类似研究结论的还有 Hoekman ( 2006) , Hoekman( 2006) 以印度为例考察了金融、电信和运输等部门商业存在服务贸易对货物商品出口部门竞争力的影响, 认为这些部门的放开提升了软设施的水平, 进而大幅度压缩了下游产品生产部门的运作成本, 使得出口竞争力得以提高, 在本国服务业效率低下的情形下,借

35、助于商业存在服务贸易扭转不利格局是落后国家的可行选择。Guerrieri et al. ( 2005) 以欧盟为研究对象, 分析了商业存在服务贸易对知识积累和经济增长的作用, 研究结论表明, 服务市场的开放或者国内服务规制的放松积极促进了经济增长, 同时还发现, 进口的服务品可能由于技术含量高的原因而比国内提供的同类服务品更加能够促进经济增长。四、未来可能的研究方向从上述文献不难发现, 由于服务贸易发展的起步较晚, 服务贸易对经济增长的研究从 20 世纪 80年代才逐渐兴起, 并且 20 多年来这方面的研究方兴未艾。随着服务贸易地位的进一步提升, 未来研究的可能方向大致包括以下几个方面。1.

36、从研究方法论来看, 可以对服务贸易进行分类研究。在货物贸易理论已经日渐成熟的今天, 服务贸易的发展实践依然在呼唤服务贸易理论的诞生。国际经济学大师 Helpman 和 Markusen 分别在不同的场合表示, 建立服务贸易理论体系的难点主要在于各类服务贸易存在较大的差异, 研究者难以逾越它们之间的鸿沟。对服务贸易按照一定的标准进行分类, 并探讨各类服务贸易对经济增长的影响是今后研究的一个可能方向。2. 从研究对象来看, 可以研究中国的服务贸易与经济增长。中国的 GDP 已经名列世界第二, 然而服务业增加值占 GDP 的比重却刚刚达到 40%, 这显然与一个经济大国的地位不相称。此外, 服务贸易

37、相比于货物贸易而言, 规模依然偏小。在这样的现实背景下, 中国的服务贸易与经济增长之间到底是什么关系? 服务贸易对推动中国经济增长的贡献如何? 服务业外包将会对中国经济产生什么样的影响? 随着中国在全球经济中地位的进一步提升, 未来的十年, 中国如何使服务贸易成为经济增长的引擎? 从学术界来看, 各国的经济学家都在关注着中国的经济发展, 中国的服务贸易也将会成为研究的热点。3. 从研究话题来看, 可以研究服务业外包对经济增长的影响。2008 年全球服务外包的市场规模已经达 到 1. 5 万 亿美元。据 联合国 贸发会 议( UNCT AD) 的推测, 全球服务外包市场在未来 5-10 年内将以

38、 30% - 40% 的速度递增。风起云涌的服务业外包是服务贸易的一种新型表现形式。服务业外包如何通过就业、产业结构升级以及技术溢出等途径推动经济增长? 服务业发包和接包对经济增长的影响机理有何差异? 对这些问题的研究将会对服务业外包的发展实践起到重要的理论指导作用。原文2：Service trade influences economic growth research reviewWith the characteristics of the service economy gradually highlight, from the upgrading of the industrial

39、structure of service trade has been developing rapidly, the scale of trade in services is rapidly expanding. From the statistical data to see, the world service trade exports from $1980 in 365 billion quickly rose to $2008 in 3.7779 trillion, an increase of 9. 35 times. Compared with a long history

40、in terms of trade in goods, trade in services is a new type of trade form, with its absolute size and relative low rising, service trade has become a modern society of concern a focus. 1.overall service trade influences economic growthAccording to WT O signed in 1994 in the general agreement on trad

41、e in services (GAT S) regulation, service trade including cross-border delivery (Cross - border Supply), overseas away fee (Consumption A broad), Commercial Presence (Commercial Presence) and Natural person flow (M ovement O f Natural Perso ns) four kinds of mode, these four kinds of model of servic

42、e trade has different attributes and characteristics. Therefore, the establishment of unified service trade influence economic growth theory framework of there is a big difficulty, corresponding literature is very rare, the only foreign literature mainly Robinson et al. (2002), they simply service t

43、rade as a commodity trade, do not consider the difference of four kinds of trade pattern, using the Computable general equilibrium (CGE, Computable GeneralEquilibrium) model for the study service trade liberalization generated effect on economic growth. With empirical method is used to study the ove

44、rall service trade influence economic growth literature more, but this kind of study to the majority of domestic and foreign scholars. Research shows that Chinas overall service trade on the economic growth of the average contribution share for 18. 9%. 2.different industry service trade influences e

45、conomic growth At present branch line of research services trade influence economic growth literature mostly concentrated in the financial, telecommunications and medical and health services department, these studies basic achieved consistent conclusion, that services departments open or productivit

46、y can significantly promote economic growth. For example, Beck et al. (1998), M urinde & Ryan (2003) and Eschenbach (2004), and other research suggests that the financial departments to a certain extent in the opening of the domestic financial market was broken on the monopoly, prompting financial m

47、arket access and orderly competitions normal development track, productivity can be improved, and ultimately, the countrys economic growth. Kim (2000) with the aid of South Koreas input and output data studied distribution service trade and total factor productivity (TFP) the relationship between th

48、e growth, and the results show that, the service trade liberalization is not only significant to promote its itself total factor productivity ascension, but also promote the relevant manufacturing sector total factor productivity of ascension, the service trade brought about by the total factor productivity growth almost cover the whole economic sector.3.Different transaction model of service trade influences economic growth Points specific transaction mode and theoretically research services trade influence economic growth few literature, Carr et al. (2001) and M