科尔尼给浙江电信做的市场预测报告（英文版） .ppt

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1、Market ForecastKey Target CustomersProduct StrategyStrategic PartnershipsChannel StrategyBrand StrategyOrganization,Table of Contents,In order to forecast CKADs addressable market,we developed a 80-page demand forecasting model,Key Assumptions,Mobile penetration of Zhejiang will increase at a decele

2、rating rate to approximately 67%in 2007Key SMS usage per user will increase at a decelerating rate2.5G/3G based wireless data penetration will resemble the internet penetration over number of years introduced with certain upward adjustment,Key Sources of Data,Source:A.T.Kearney analysis,Extract:Zhej

3、iang Telecom Market Model,ZMCCMIIMarket surveyIDCZhejiang Statistics BureauAnalyst reports,Merill Lynch,CSFBOECD,We consider three fundamental scenarios to account for major sources of uncertainties,Note:Other uncertainties such as the market entry of a new,2G foreign competitor and the adoption of

4、new regulation imposing universal service obligation have been considered but assessed very unlikely to happenSource:OECD research;Merill Lynch report;ZMCC;A.T.Kearney analysis;,Depending on scenarios,CKADs addressable market in wireless and fixed wireless solution will reach from RMB 14.3 to 23.2 b

5、illion by 2007,Individual Products,Group Customers Products,Enterprise Solutions,Wireless,Fixed-Wireless,Source:ZMCC,A.T.Kearney analysis,Addressable market size in RMB billion,Best Case,Base Case,Worse Case,0.3,10.7,0.3,10.4,10.7,21.7,CKAD will directly target from 49%to 59%of the total wireless an

6、d fixed-wireless markets in Zhejiang,Year 2003,Total wireless and fixed wireless markets,Individual wireless,Individual fixed/wireless,Wireless and fixed/wireless addressable by CKAD,Year 2007,Source:ZMCC;FAMS,A.T.Kearney analysis,(RMB Billion),49%of total,59%of total,Wireless,Fixed Wireless,Total w

7、ireless and fixed wireless markets,Individual wireless,Individual fixed/wireless,Wireless and fixed/wireless addressable by CKAD,Wireless,Fixed Wireless,Based on customer location,Hangzhou,Wenzhou,and Ningbo are the cities with largest wireless and fixed/wireless markets,Source:Zhejiang Statistic Bu

8、reau;A.T.Kearney analysis,CKAD addressable market-revenue(Bn RMB),CKADs addressable market in wireless and fixed-wireless will evolve over time towards larger companies,Type A Company,Type BCompany,Type CCompany,Source:A.T.Kearney analysis;FAMS research,VoiceData,Revenue in RMB(billion),Manufacturin

9、g,Construction,Transportation,Banks and Education are the largest sector for wireless and fixed-wireless solutions,ManufacturingConstructionTransportationEducationBank/InsuranceGovernmentSocial services Retail tradeOthers,Addressable market size by industry(RMB billion),Source:14,000 company databas

10、e,market survey,A.T.Kearney analysis,Year 2003,Year 2007,ManufacturingConstructionTransportationEducationBanksGovernmentSocial services Retail tradeOthers,CKADs addressable fixed line market will grow from RMB 2.3 bn in 2003 to 3.8 bn in 2007 half of demand coming from Hangzhou,Ningbo and Wenzhou,Zh

11、ejiang CKAD Addressable Fixed Line Market Forecast(RMB,Bn),Breakdown of Addressable Fixed Line Market(Year 2003),Revenue,Source:Goldman Sachs,A.T.Kearney analysis,Specific revenue targets for CKAD have been developed at city level,Tasks,Outcome,Get top 14,000 Zhejiang company listGet number of compa

12、nies and employees by city from the databaseEstimate the number of C companies and their employees not included in the database according to Zhejiang statisticsGet mobile penetration rate by industry from market survey,Database of all A and B companies and some C companiesEstimation of trend of numb

13、er of A,B,C companies and respective employees at city level,Develop a market forecast model for Zhejiang wireless marketPlug in the employee number and penetration in the model and estimate the market size of CKAD addressable market at city level,Total addressable market forecast at city level,Set

14、revenue target from traditional businesses at city levelSet targeted%of revenue from new data businessCalculate total revenue target at city levelValidate the targets with historical data and local experiences,Revenue target of traditional businessesRevenue target of new data businessesTotal revenue

15、 target at city level,Analyze current ZMCC and CKAD share of subscribers and share of enterprise customersSet targeted share of enterprisesSet targeted share of employee subscribers within each company,#of A,B,C enterprises target at city level#of subscribers target at city level,Number of A,B,C com

16、panies and their employees,Company and employee number,Step 1,Step 2,Step 3,Step 4,CKADs potential wireless and fixed/wireless markets,来源:浙江省统计局;科尔尼分析,集团大客户部潜在市场-收入（单位：十亿元）,Step 1,Step 2,Step 3,Step 4,CKADs potential fixed line market,Zhejiang CKAD Addressable Fixed Line Market Forecast(RMB,Bn),Not

17、including fixed local calls market,Including fixed local calls market,Breakdown of Addressable Fixed Line Market(Year 2003),Revenue,Source:Goldman Sachs,A.T.Kearney analysis,Step 1,Step 2,Step 3,Step 4,CKAD target number of users,CKAD target number of users by city,Step 1,Step 2,Step 3,Step 4,Tradit

18、ional voice revenue target,CKAD city level revenue targets,CKAD Revenue Target(B RMB),Data and new products revenue target,Step 1,Step 2,Step 3,Step 4,0.24,0.48,0.99,2,0.08,0.16,0.31,0.71,0.09,0.13,0.56,1.10,0.41,0.83,0.67,1.52,0.1,0.18,0.32,0.69,0.44,1.08,Overall,CKAD should target to double its revenue in 5 years from 2003 level,CKAD Revenue Target(RMB Bn),Step 1,Step 2,Step 3,Step 4,