美国经济分析：2013-2016年美国经济：走出困境-2012-12-03.ppt

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1、,2012 年 12 月 1 日Issue No:12/48美国经济分析研究报告2013-2016 年美国经济：走出困境,我们预计 2013 年上半年美国经济增速仍在 2%以下。财政紧缩步伐加快的不利影响可能会超出私营部门复苏和桑迪飓风过后经济状况好转的积极影响。我们预测面临的风险趋于下行；财政悬崖最严重的后果可能是导致经济再次陷入衰退。然而我们更新后的财政收支模型显示，2013 年下半年经济增长可能开始改善。房屋建造开始强劲复苏，企业部门应会提高现金流支出比例，个人储蓄率可能会进一步小幅下降。总的来说，私营部门可能会将 2014-2015 年 GDP 推高约 1个百分点。即使在财政政策继续拖

2、累的情况下，经济增速也应会达到高于趋势水平的 3%（或更高）。按照以往周期的标准来看这样的复苏仍不是非常迅速，但无疑会好于目前为止增速为 2%-2%的复苏。增长加速可能仅会使经济逐步摆脱疲软状况。根据我们的预测，就业率较潜在水平低 4%左右，随着更多人重新加入劳动力大军，失业率仅会缓慢下降。而这可能会令工资增长非常缓慢。鉴于大宗商品价格将比前几年更为稳,Jan Hatzius(212)902-0394 高盛集团Alec Phillips(202)637-3746 高盛集团Jari Stehn(212)357-6224 高盛集团Kris Dawsey(212)902-3393 高盛集团David

3、 Mericle(212)357-2619 高盛集团Shuyan Wu(212)902-3053 高盛集团,定，我们预计通胀率仍将略低于美联储 2%的目标。美联储政策仍将倾向于推动就业市场复苏。我们预计即使在扭曲操作结束后，美联储也会以约 850 亿美元/月的速度继续购买按揭抵押证券和长期国债。此外，美联储还可能调整联邦基金利率指引，但一季度之前可能不会发生。投资者不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素。有关分析师的申明和其他重要信息，见信息披露附录，或参阅,2,2012 年 12 月 1 日,美国经济分析,The US Economy in 2013-2016:Moving Over the

4、HumpThe key theme of our 2013-2016 economic forecasts is the“great race”between recovery in theprivate sector and an offsetting contraction in the government sector.Our baseline forecast isthat this race will end in a draw in 2013that is,trend or slightly below-trend growthwith risksthat tilt to the

5、 downside if the resolution of the fiscal cliff results in even more retrenchment thanthe 1%-2%of GDP that we currently assume.Beyond 2013,however,we see a pickup to anabove-trend growth pace as the fiscal drag abates to%-1%of GDP.This story is based on the financial balances model that we introduce

6、d last year.It starts from theaccounting identity that one persons spending is always another persons income.This meansthat in the economy as a whole,total income must equal total spending,and the financialbalancesthe gaps between income and spendingof the different sectors of the economy mustadd up

7、 to zero.In turn,this means that the financial balance of the US private sector plus thefinancial balance of the US public sector must equal the financial balance of the rest of the worldvis-vis the US.Since the latter is equal to the US current account balance,this impliesprivate sector balance+pub

8、lic sector balance=current account balanceExhibit 1 shows the current configuration of these financial balances.But while the equationabove must always hold ex post in terms of national income accounting,it need not hold ex antein terms of the spending intentions of the different sectors of the econ

9、omy.If all sectors takentogether try to reduce their financial balancei.e.increase spending more than income andfinance the difference by borrowing more or running down cash balancesthe economy will tendto grow above potential.Conversely,if all sectors taken together try to increase their financialb

10、alancei.e.increase spending less than income and use the difference to accumulate cash orpay down debtthe economy will tend to grow below potential.Exhibit 1:Private Sector Surplus Offsets Government Deficit,Percent of GDP1050-5,Percent of GDP1050-5,-10-15,Financial Balances:Private SectorGovernment

11、Foreign*,-10-15,70,75,80,85,90,95,00,05,10,15,*Inverse of current account balance.Source:Department of Commerce.For example,if an asset price boom induces households and firms to reduce their financialbalancei.e.,increase their spending relative to their income and finance the difference byincreased

12、 borrowingand this move is not offset by public-sector restraint,there is an ex anteexcess of spending over income and the economy will tend to grow above trend.The strength ineconomic activity results in stronger output and employment growth,which continues until total高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,3,2012 年 12 月 1

13、 日,美国经济分析,income in the economy has caught up with total spending and the accounting identities hold onan ex post basis.Conversely,if concerns about fiscal sustainability induce governments to cut their budget deficitson a cyclically adjusted basis,and this move is not offset by private-sector expan

14、sion,there is anex ante shortfall of spending versus income and the economy will tend to grow below trend.Theweakness in economic activity continues until income has fallen to the level of spending in theeconomy as a whole and the accounting identities hold on an ex post basis.From a practical forec

15、asting perspective,the key challenge is to identify and predict the drivers ofex ante changes in financial balances.The approach taken in our financial balances model is tobreak up the overall national income accounting identity into a few major piecespersonal saving,net residential investment,the n

16、onfinancial corporate sector,government,and the rest of theworldand then to estimate econometric equations that explain each piece with financial and realeconomic variables that we can project into the future with a reasonable degree of confidence.Today we present a refined version of our financial

17、balances model.The most important changeis that we have added one“residual”category that closes the national income accounting identityand captures the financial balance of the financial and noncorporate sectors as well as thestatistical discrepancy between overall income and spending.In addition,we

18、 have re-estimatedsome of the other equations,specifically those for net residential investment and the nonfinancialcorporate sector.We also use a slightly different measure of the fiscal impulse,namely thechange in the cyclically adjusted primary deficit in the general government sector as estimate

19、d bythe IMF,adjusted for our assumption that the upper-income Bush tax cuts will lapse at the end of2012.In what follows,we discuss the outlook for each of the components of the national incomeaccounting identity.A Shrinking Financial Surplus in the Household SectorWe break the household sector fina

20、ncial balance into two pieces,which we model separately,namely personal saving and net household(mainly residential)investment.We explain personalsaving by three variables:the ratio of household net worth to disposable income,the availability ofcredit as measured by an accumulated version of the pro

21、portion of banks indicating greaterwillingness to make consumer installment loans,and the unemployment rate.Our specificationclosely follows that suggested in the 2010 Economic Report of the President and leaves importantroles for both wealth effects and credit availability in the determination of p

22、ersonal saving.As shown in Exhibit 2,this model fits the personal saving data remarkably well.It explains thelarge decline in the personal saving rate in the period from around 1990 to 2007 with the increasein the wealth/income ratio and the increase in the availability of credit.After 2007,the mode

23、lexplains the moderate increase in the saving rate with the fall in the wealth/income ratio and thedeterioration in credit availability.Going forward,it implies a moderate decline in the saving rateassuming the wealth-income ratio moves sideways to higher(as implied by our house price andequity mark

24、et forecasts)and credit availability improves a bit further.高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,6,6,4,2012 年 12 月 1 日,Exhibit 2:Personal Saving Is Likely to Edge Down Further,美国经济分析,Percent of GDP10,Personal Saving in Percent of GDP:,Percent of GDP10,86420,ActualPredicted,Forecast,86420,80,82,84,86,88,90,92,94,96,98,00,

25、02,04,06,08,10,12,14,16,Source:Department of Commerce.GS Global ECS Research.The other side of the household sector balance is the outlook for homebuilding(or more precisely,net household sector investment).Our approach is a more reduced-form version of our recentanalysis of the homebuilding outlook

26、,and assumes that homebuilding depends on thehomeowner vacancy rate,the real mortgage rate,and bank lending standards for residentialmortgage loans.As shown in Exhibit 3,homebuilding is likely to improve substantially based onbetter news on all of these factors;in fact,our model would already have p

27、ointed to a greaterimprovement than what we have seen and is now calling for a significant amount of catch-upgrowth.Our confidence in this improvement is relatively high.Exhibit 3:A Forceful Recovery in Homebuilding,Percent of GDPNet Household Investment:,Percent of GDP,543210,ActualPredicted,Foreca

28、st,543210,95,97,99,01,03,05,07,09,11,13,15,17,Source:Department of Commerce.GS Global ECS Research.高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,5,2012 年 12 月 1 日,美国经济分析As Well as the Business SectorWe also expect a decline in the corporate financial surplus,as business investment is likely togrow more quickly than corporate cash

29、 flow.We explain the nonfinancial corporate financialbalance(the inverse of the“financing gap”in the Feds flow of funds tables)by the level of Baacredit spreads,“Tobins q”(the ratio of the market value of corporate equity to its replacementcost),and banks willingness to lend to commercial and indust

30、rial borrowers.As shown in Exhibit 4,nonfinancial corporations are running a financial surplus that is unusual byhistorical standards.We expect this surplus to diminish as credit spreads decline,Tobins qincreases in line with our more-upbeat equity market forecasts for 2013 and beyond,and banklendin

31、g standards continue to ease modestly.For similar reasons,we expect a decline in thecurrently unusually largesurplus in the residual“other”category,which includes the financialsector,the noncorporate business sector,and the statistical discrepancy in the NIPAs.Net external trade significantly cushio

32、ned the output effects of the 2008 collapse in US demand,but is unlikely to play a large role in the US business cycle over the next few years.We expect aslight deterioration as stronger US demand growth sucks in more imports.Exhibit 4:Corporate Sector Likely to Move Back to Small Deficit,Percent of

33、 GDP4,Percent of GDP4,3,Nonfinancial Corporate Balance:Actual,3,210-1-2-3-4,Predicted,Forecast,210-1-2-3-4,95,97,99,01,03,05,07,09,11,13,15,17,Source:Department of Commerce.GS Global ECS Research.Pulling It All TogetherOur analysis implies that the reduction in the ex ante private sector balance has

34、 delivered amodest boost to US GDP growth since 2010,and that this boost will grow in 2013-2014.Exhibit 5shows that all parts of the domestic private sector are likely to contribute to this boost.If theprivate sector impulse had been the only driver of growth,our estimates imply that real GDPgrowth

35、would have been slightly above trend over the past few years.高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,1,1,6,2012 年 12 月 1 日,Exhibit 5:Private Sector Impulse Turns More Positive,美国经济分析,Percent of GDP420,Private Sector Impulse,Percent of GDP420,-2-4-6-8-10,TotalSaving RateResidential InvestmentCorporateTradeOther,Forecast,-2-4

36、-6-8-10,2009,2010,2011,2012,2013,2014,2015,2016,Source:GS Global ECS Research.However,the actual growth pace has only been around a trend pacea little slower than trend ifwe look at the GDP data and a little faster than trend if we look at the labor market data.Thereason is the increasing drag from

37、fiscal policy,illustrated in Exhibit 6.We measure fiscal drag asthe change in the cyclically adjusted primary balance of the general government(federal,state,and local)as estimated by the IMF.Once we include fiscal policy,the predicted impulse from exante changes in financial balances disappears,and

38、 the overall picture becomes consistent withtrend growth.Exhibit 6:A Transition to Above-Trend Growth,Percent of GDP420,Private and Public Sector Impulse,Percent of GDP420,-2-4-6,Net ImpulsePrivate SectorPublic Sector,Forecast,-2-4-6,2009,2010,2011,2012,2013,2014,2015,2016,Source:GS Global ECS Resea

39、rch.We adjust the series for differences between the IMFs fiscal policy assumptions and our own.In particular,we assume that the upper-income Bush tax cuts will expire in 2013,while the IMF assumes another one-year extension to 2014.高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,7,2012 年 12 月 1 日,美国经济分析,What can we expect in comin

40、g years?If our estimates and assumptions are correct,2013 islikely to be a more extreme version of 2010-2012,with a bigger positive private sector impulsethat is offset by a bigger negative public sector impulse but still leaves growth around trend.Butwe expect the net impulse to turn positive in su

41、bsequent years,assuming that 2013 marks thepeak rate of fiscal contraction.By 2014-2015,the decline in the ex ante private sector balanceshould be contributing around 1 percentage points to the overall growth impulse,but wecurrently assume that fiscal policy will subtract only-1 percentage point,for

42、 a net impulse of-1 point.This ought to be a recipe for clearly above-trend growth.Jan HatziusSven Jari Stehn高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,8,2012 年 12 月 1 日The US Economic and Financial Outlook(%change on previous period,annualized,except where noted),美国经济分析,2011,2012,2013,2014,2015,2016,2012,2013,(f),(f),(f),(f),

43、(f),Q1,Q2,Q3,Q4,Q1,Q2,Q3,Q4,OUTPUT AND SPENDING,Real GDPConsumer ExpenditureResidential Fixed InvestmentBusiness Fixed InvestmentStructuresEquipment&SoftwareFederal GovernmentState and Local GovernmentNet Exports($bn,05)Inventory Investment($bn,05)Industrial Production,Mfg,1.82.5-1.48.62.811.0-2.8-3

44、.4-420314.3,2.21.812.07.19.56.2-1.5-1.3-408574.1,1.91.412.62.72.13.0-1.40.1-404811.1,2.92.414.88.57.98.7-2.50.9-380782.8,3.22.713.47.47.47.4-1.91.6-390833.7,3.02.512.56.15.96.2-0.92.0-402833.1,2.02.420.67.512.85.4-4.2-2.2-416579.8,1.31.58.43.60.64.8-0.2-1.0-407410.7,2.71.414.3-2.2-1.0-2.79.5-0.4-403

45、61-1.1,1.31.014.20.2-0.80.6-5.00.3-389681.0,1.51.010.02.02.02.0-2.50.0-384801.0,2.01.512.54.04.04.0-2.50.0-380872.0,2.52.015.07.85.09.0-2.51.0-379822.0,2.52.015.08.67.59.0-2.51.0-378752.0,HOUSING MARKET,Housing Starts(units,m)New Home Sales(units,m)Existing Home Sales(units,m)Case-Shiller Home Price

46、s,0.60.34.3-4.4,0.80.44.72.4,1.00.45.52.9,1.10.56.02.9,1.30.66.43.3,1.50.76.63.7,0.70.44.61.6,0.70.44.52.4,0.80.44.71.1,0.80.45.02.0,0.90.45.12.0,0.90.45.62.0,1.00.45.62.9,1.00.55.72.9,INFLATION(%ch,yr/yr),Consumer Price Index(CPI)Core CPICore PCE*Unit Labor Costs,3.02.21.91.9,2.41.91.61.2,2.01.81.7

47、1.4,1.71.81.61.5,2.01.91.71.8,2.02.01.82.1,2.82.21.90.2,1.92.31.81.0,1.72.01.61.1,2.21.91.62.4,2.11.91.61.3,2.51.81.61.3,2.41.81.61.6,2.01.81.61.5,LABOR MARKET,Unemployment Rate(%),8.9,8.1,7.8,7.3,6.7,6.3,8.2,8.2,8.1,7.9,7.9,7.9,7.8,7.7,FINANCIAL SECTOR,Federal Funds*(%)3-Month LIBOR(%),0.070.56,0.1

48、30.33,0.130.30,0.130.30,0.130.30,1.251.50,0.130.47,0.160.47,0.140.39,0.130.33,0.130.30,0.130.30,0.130.30,0.130.30,Treasury Yield Curve*(%),2-Year Note5-Year Note10-Year Note30-Year Bond,0.260.891.982.98,0.280.711.752.90,0.401.202.203.25,0.601.752.753.65,1.502.503.254.00,2.003.003.754.25,0.341.022.17

49、3.28,0.290.711.622.70,0.260.671.722.88,0.280.711.752.90,0.300.851.902.95,0.350.902.003.05,0.351.002.103.05,0.401.202.203.25,INCOME,Disposable IncomeReal Disposable IncomeSaving Rate(%)Profits*(%chg,yr/yr),3.81.34.28.9,3.01.13.66.4,2.20.22.75.7,3.51.92.55.5,3.62.12.25.0,3.72.12.05.0,6.33.73.69.2,2.92

50、.23.84.4,2.10.53.64.0,3.4-0.23.48.0,-0.5-2.42.65.0,3.41.82.75.0,3.41.92.85.0,3.42.02.87.5,Federal Budget(FY,$bn),-1,296-1,089,-950,-700,-550,-550,-,-,-,-,-,-,-,-,FOREIGN SECTOR,Current Account(%of GDP)Euro($/)*Yen(/$)*,-3.11.3278,-2.91.3079,-2.61.4080,-2.81.4080,-3.11.3585,-3.31.2590,-3.51.3282,-3.0