摩根斯坦利大中华区首席经济学家王庆讲座课件(1).ppt

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1、Morgan Stanley Asia Limited王 庆 博士大中华区首席经济学家+(852)2848-5220,ResearchAsia/Pacific,中国经济,短期：防通胀中长期：调结构,For important disclosures,refer to the Disclosures Section,located at the end of this report.,Source:Morgan Stanley Research,中国的政策取向:正常化,中国的政策取向:全面紧缩,美欧日乏力复苏,秋:不温不火,夏:过热,冬:“二次探底”,春:“软着陆”,美欧日强劲复苏,2010年的

2、四个季节,经济软着陆实现,Source:CEIC,Morgan Stanley Research estimates,中国在经济全球化背景下的超级周期,大衰退,Source:Morgan Stanley Research,政治周期驱动的投资周期,Source:Morgan Stanley Research estimates,2010年：通胀未见顶,Source:Morgan Stanley Research estimates,2011年：通胀重新抬头,Source:Morgan Stanley Research estimates,为什末是M1？,Source:Morgan Stanley

3、 Research estimates,境外金融资产,境内有形资产,高储蓄,高投资,外汇储备,资本账户管制,人口结构,人口政策,流动性创造,境外有形资产,不发达的资本市场,资产价格上行压力,P,Y,S,S,D,D,低通胀,高增长,非对称资本账户开放,放松价格管制,“过度储蓄”的优点：危机过后对中国经济的反思,消费习惯的粘性,限制金融杠杆,避免人民币单边升值预期,增加证券化资产供给,Source:Morgan Stanley Research,“调结构”图解,“结构失衡”,国民经济支出结构,国民经济收入结构,国民经济产业结构,投资,消费,净出口,国家,企业,居民,农业,工业,服务业,降低储蓄率,

4、增加工资,发展服务业,社保体系,集体工资谈判工会的作用,市场准入理顺价格,中长期:以史为鉴,Source:Angus Maddison,2006,The World Economy:A Millennial Perspective,OECD.,中长期:经济增长与通胀,Source:CEIC,Morgan Stanley Research,中长期:经济结构如演变 生产结构,Source:CEIC,Morgan Stanley Research,中长期:经济结构如演变 支出结构,Source:CEIC,Morgan Stanley Research,中长期:经济结构如演变 经常账户,Source:

5、CEIC,Morgan Stanley Research,中长期:经济结构如演变 收入结构,Source:CEIC,Morgan Stanley Research,中国经济不是奇迹，但有其特殊性,竞争优势,时间,时间,日本,亚洲四小龙,东南亚,中国,越南,经济特区,珠/长江三角洲,东部地区,中部地区,西部地区,Source:NRI Papers No.52,竞争优势,中国经济不是奇迹，但有其特殊性,Source:Morgan Stanley Research,Maddison(2006),The Flying Geese As a Whole Decelerated Less Than the

6、 Lead Goose,中长期:经济结构如演变,Source:Morgan Stanley Research,中长期:水平与速度 汽车与钢铁,Source:Morgan Stanley Research,担心:劳动适龄人口增长迅速减速,Source:UN World Population Prospects(2008 Revision),Morgan Stanley Research,现实：人口增长和经济增长脱钩,Source:CEIC,CEIC,UN World Population Prospects(2008 Revision),Morgan Stanley Research Morga

7、n Stanley Research,行业间劳动生产率差距巨大,Source:CEIC,Morgan Stanley Research,行业间劳动力转移潜力巨大,Source:CEIC,Morgan Stanley Research,“中国消费不足”被夸大,Source:CEIC,Bloomberg,Morgan Stanley Research,“中国消费不足”被夸大,Source:Morgan Stanley Research,中国个人消费占美国的比例（%）,啤酒,汽车,奶饮品,通讯,可贸易品,居民用电量,金融服务业,全部消费,服务业,住房消费,胃口好 肥胖:如何看待 过度投资,Sourc

8、e:CEIC,Morgan Stanley Research,累计投资量,中长期:消费的黄金时代,Source:Morgan Stanley Research,中长期:消费的驱动因素,Source:Morgan Stanley Research,社会保障房计划决定中国“调结构”的成败！,Information and opinions in Morgan Stanley Research were prepared or are disseminated by one or more of the following,which accept responsibility for its co

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