COALANDFREIGHTQUARTERLY：：BRINGITON0110.ppt

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1、Commodities ResearchTrevor Sikorski+44(0)20 3134 0160,COAL AND FREIGHTQUARTERLY2014:Bring it onJanuary 2013PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES BEGINNING ON PAGE 15,150,2,Some form of stabilityPricing history finding support,200,Financial crisis,CiF ARA M+1$/tFOB Richards Bay

2、M+1$/tFukushimaFOB Newcastle M+1$/tSupplyoutage,s100Gradual recovery on China and India50,Jan-08,Jan-09,Jan-10,Jan-11,Jan-12,Jan-13,Source:Ecowin,Barclays ResearchJanuary 8,2013,15,3,Other price behaviour,Mt,CIF ARA over FOB RB,Mt,while sub-bit was popular,20,20,Newc(6300)-Indonesia(5000),Newc(6300)

3、-Newc(5500),1050-5-10-15-20,151050,Mar-11,Jul-11,Oct-11,Feb-12,May-12,Sep-12,-5,API 2-API 4($/t),Arb into Europe($/t),Arb out of Europe($/t),Apr-11,Jul-11,Oct-11,Jan-12,Apr-12,Jul-12,Oct-12,Source:Ecowin Barclays Research,Source:Ecowin Barclays Research,January 8,2013,4,Supply has been the 2012 stor

4、ySupply increments,Mt,151050,-5,USARussia,ColombiaIndonesia,South AfricaAustralia,-10,Jan-11,Apr-11,Jul-11,Oct-11,Jan-12,Apr-12,Jul-12,Source:McCloskey Barclays ResearchThe story has been one of broad-based supply incrementsJanuary 8,2013,5,Supply:US was important,US supply a key growth story.,but n

5、ot the only one.,Mt 6543210,Mt,181614121086420,Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun2010,Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec20112012,USA,Colombia,SouthAfrica,Russia Indonesia Australiay/y increments(Mt),Source:Mc Closkey Barclays ResearchUp 14 Mt y/y.,Source:McCloskey Barclays ResearchAustralia has seen largest growthJanuary

6、 8,2013,0,Jul,12,Jul,6,Demand:Europe grew,UK demand Up but not away,Import growth limited,8,Mt,Mt20,2010,2011,2012,7654321,19181716151413,Jan,Feb Mar Apr May Jun20092010,Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec20112012,Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun,Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec,Source:DECC,Barclays ResearchCoal had a good year in the U

7、K.,Source:Eurostat,Barclays Researchhowever import growth limited to UKand Spain but adding 15 MtJanuary 8,2013,7,Demand:Asian focus,Mt,Japan was up.,Mt,as were Indian imports,13121110987,121086420,Jan,Feb,Mar,Apr,May,Jun,Jul,Aug,Sep,Oct,Nov,Dec,Jan,Feb Mar Apr May Jun,Jul,Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec,2009,2

8、010,2011,2012,2009,2010,2011,2012,Source:McCloskey,Barclays ResearchPost-Fukushima energy crisis adds 12 Mt,Source:Chinese customs,Barclays ResearchImports adding estimated 18 Mt,to importsJanuary 8,2013,2,200,8,Demand:China balanced the market,Chinese demand:market balancing,Mostly down to the arb,

9、-3,Chinas steam coal net trade(Mt)net exporter,CNY/t150100,Arb for imported coalArb over Aus coal,Arb over Indo coal,-8,net importer,50,0-13-50,-18Oct-05 Oct-06 Oct-07 Oct-08 Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11 Oct-12,-100Jan-12,Mar-12,May-12,Jul-12,Sep-12,Nov-12,Source:Chinese customs,Barclays Research,Source:CEI

10、C,Sxcoal,Barclays Research,Imports surging to over 140 Mt up 40 MtJanuary 8,2013,9,2013 and 2014 more supply?Almost all exporters planning increases except the US,CountryAustralia,Incremental capacity additions(Mt)2013201432.7,Change from2012(Mt)Total32.7,DiscussionMost of the additions to productiv

11、e capacity to come online,in 2014,ColombiaIndonesiaMozambique,145,15479,294714,Production instability risks remain.Some of these increments likely to be seen before 2014.Infrastructure debottlenecking crucial for further production,capacity expansion,RussiaTotal,8.527.5,4.5108,13136,Production sensi

12、tivity to input costs and high stocks,Source:Company reports,McCloskey,Reuters,Barclays ResearchWhere will all that supply go?January 8,2013,Jun08,Sep08,Dec08,Mar09,Jun09,Sep09,Dec09,Mar10,Jun10,Sep10,Dec10,Mar11,Jun11,Sep11,Dec11,Mar12,Jun12,Sep12,European demand:possibly peaked,Europe:Little under

13、lying growth15%10%5%0%-5%-10%-15%-20%-25%,Although coal should remain in moneyGas SRMC-coal SRMC/MWh403020100-10-20,Y/Y change in EU industrial production(%),Dec-11,Mar-12,Jun-1254%v 30%,Sep-1248%v 36%,Dec-12,Source:Eurostat,Barclays ResearchReal GDP growth:2013:0.0%;2014:1.4%,Source:Ecowin,Barclays

14、 Research,IP growth:,2013:-2.8%;2014:0%,10,January 8,2013,European demand:possibly peaked,UK demand:policy to displace coal,While renewable growth/new coalerodes demand elsewhere,55504540353025,500040003000200010000-1000-2000,20SUM 2012 WIN 2012 SUM 2013 WIN 2013 SUM 2014 WIN 2014 SUM 2015 WIN 2015,

15、-3000,2011,2012,2013,2014,Gas-NBP/MWh,Gas-NBP:w/o CO2 tax/MWh,Coal/MWh,Coal:w/o CO2 tax/MWh,Additions(MW),Closures(MW),Source:Ecowin,Barclays ResearchPlus loss of 6.3 GW through LCPD,11,Source:BNA,Platts,Barclays ResearchSome 7.5 GW to come onlineJanuary 8,2013,Asian demand:What is up in China?,Impo

16、rts growing but.2012 seaborne supply to coastDomesticsupply80%Net import20%Source:CEIC,Sxcoal,Barclays Research,Investing in domestic port capacity Caofeidian,Tangshan port,adding 50 Mt/y ofthroughput in each of 2012 and 2013.Shenhua,increasing the size of the berth at Huanghuaport by 50 Mt/y in 201

17、3,and Tianjin port by 35 Mt/y in2014.Liaoning ports:100 Mt/y incremental capacity in 2013and 85 Mt/y in 2014.Qinhuangdao exceeding designed capacity,shippingout 250 Mt/y in 2011 above 190 Mt/y design capacity.Investing in domestic rail The Daqin railway increased capacity from 200 Mt/y in2005 to 450

18、 Mt/y in 2012.Further capacity increase toadd around 10-20 Mt/y.Shenshuo railway upgrade expected to see two spurscome online late-2013.Expansion of the Shenshuotrunkline is planned to increase rail capacity by morethan 200 Mt/y and is expected to be complete late-2014.The Zhangtang rail that connec

19、ts west Inner Mongoliato Tangshan ports with an initial capacity of 120 Mt/y isexpected in late-2014.,12,January 8,2013,Asian demand:Will India be the one?,Indian incremental market balance,Leading to growing imports(Mt),80706050403020100,Coal consumption(Mt)Domestic supply additions(Mt),20018016014

20、0120100806040200,Coal import numbers,2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017,2007,2009,2011,2013,2015,2017,Source:BP,Indian Government,Barclays ResearchBetter at generation additions than coalproduction,13,Source:Indian government,Barclays Researchbut these are price sensitiveJanuary

21、8,2013,-,lG,Price outlook,Market,Product,Units,2010A,2011A 2012A,2013,2014,2015,Oil,WTIBrent,US$/bblUS$/bbl,79.680.3,95111,96113,115125,124130,125135,Natural Gas,Henry Hub US$/mmbtu,4.39,4.02,2.77,3.25,4.00,NBP,p/therm,42.2,56.4,59.5,65,67.5,CarbonCoal,EUACERAPI-2API-4Newcastle,/t CO2/t CO2US$/t$/t$

22、/t,14.512.4939299,13.410.2122116121,7.253.5939495,8.52.5959392,102959190,121.5,Source:Ecowin,Barclays Research,14,January 8,2013,Analyst Certifications and Important DisclosuresAnalyst Certification(s)I,Trevor Sikorski,hereby certify(1)that the views expressed in this research report accurately refl

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