MACAU：DECBEATS;SMOKINGBANASMOOTHTRANSITIONONDAY10104.ppt

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1、Buy,Buy,Buy,Deutsche BankMarkets Research,AsiaHong KongConsumerHotels/Leisure/,IndustryMacau,Date2 January 2013Industry Update,GamingKaren Tang,Dec beats;Smoking ban a smoothtransition on Day 1Smoking ban-Smooth transition;limited impact on Day 1Gaming revenue set a new high of MOP28.2bn in Dec(+20%

2、yoy),beatingOcts record(MOP27.7bn).Both VIP and mass markets were stronger thanexpected,and junkets confirmed that VIPs are returning.Smoking ban becameeffective on Jan 1,and all casinos we visited have set up clear signs.Forexample,we saw in Galaxy Macau that smoking is allowed on all the high-limi

3、ttables in the Pavilion areas,while for the remaining mass floor,all tables on the,Research Analyst(+852)2203 Top picksMelco Crown(MPEL.OQ),USD16.84Companies FeaturedGalaxy(0027.HK),HKD30.352011A 2012E 2013E,left side are for non-smoking(right side for smoking).While the smoking tableslook slightly

4、busier(80%occupied at 5pm),the non-smoking tables are alsoreasonably busy(60%occupied).We expect limited impact from this rule.,P/E(x)EV/EBITDA(x)Price/book(x),15.411.24.2,18.113.36.0,15.711.64.3,High-speed rail service extended to Macau border on Dec 31The much-anticipated Zhuhai station finally op

5、ened on Dec 31.This brings the,Melco Crown(MPEL.OQ),USD16.842011A 2012E 2013E,high-speed rail very close to the Macau border as the station is within 10 minwalk to Macaus Gongbei border gate.From now on,daily scheduled servicesinclude 25 trains from the Guangzhou South station from 7am to 10:40pm,P/

6、E(x)EV/EBITDA(x)Price/book(x),16.68.41.8,23.611.32.8,18.810.12.4,(holiday season:35 trains from 6:30am to 11pm).Economy class one-wayticket costs Rmb70(first-class Rmb90)and the travel time is reduced from 150min(by bus)to now only 80 min.More importantly,Guangzhou South stationis also the hub for C

7、hinas high-speed rail network,linking up with major citiessuch as Wuhan and Beijing.Galaxy gained market share from Wynn MacauBased on Dec 1-25 table revenue data,Galaxy gained 2.4ppt market share to18.6%.MGM China gained 0.9ppt market share to 10.5%likely due to theramp up of new VIP tables on Leve

8、l 2.These market share gains came mostlyfrom Wynn Macau(down 2.6ppt to 9.5%)and SJM(down 0.9ppt to 26.7%).Market shares were largely stable for Melco Crown(14.1%)and Sands China(20.6%).Reiterate our positive view on Macaus outlook in 2013In Dec,Macau gaming stocks rose by an average of 1%,underperfo

9、rmingMSCI China by 4ppt and trading on par with MSCI HK.Macau sector is nowtrading at 12x 2013 EV/EBITDA and 16x 2013 PE,still at a big discount toChinese consumer discretionary PE(22x).Key risks include smoking ban,newson anti-corruption and slower-than-expected VIP recovery.,MGM China(2282.HK),HKD

10、14.02 Hold2011A 2012E 2013EP/E(x)12.7 12.3 11.9EV/EBITDA(x)9.7 9.4 9.1Price/book(x)8.7 8.8 7.5Sands China(1928.HK),HKD33.95 Hold2011A 2012E 2013EP/E(x)17.5 25.4 21.6EV/EBITDA(x)14.1 19.9 16.1Price/book(x)4.1 7.3 6.9SJM(0880.HK),HKD18.00 Hold2011A 2012E 2013EP/E(x)14.3 14.8 14.7EV/EBITDA(x)9.6 10.8 1

11、0.9Price/book(x)4.1 5.0 4.8Wynn Macau(1128.HK),HKD20.95 Hold2011A 2012E 2013EP/E(x)17.7 16.1 16.3,Figure 1:Market share by gross gaming revenueMOPbn Aug Sep 3Q12 Oct Nov,Dec*,Dec vs.Nov,EV/EBITDA(x)Price/book(x),14.825.1,13.425.8,14.025.8,Macau totalyoy,26.16%,23.912%,74.66%,27.73%,24.98%,28.220%,Ga

12、laxy,20.2%18.1%19.1%19.2%16.2%,18.6%,Gained 2.4ppt,Melco Crown 13.0%14.2%13.4%13.9%13.7%MGM China 10.4%9.8%9.7%8.9%9.6%Sands China 19.0%17.8%19.4%21.0%20.8%,14.1%10.5%20.6%,Gained 0.4pptGained 0.9pptLost 0.2ppt,SJM,25.1%27.2%26.1%26.9%27.6%,26.7%,Lost 0.9ppt,Wynn Macau 12.3%12.9%12.2%10.1%12.1%,9.5%

13、,Lost 2.6ppt,Source:Deutsche Bank,Government data,*Note:Dec market share shows Dec 1-25 table-only gaming revenue market share.,_Deutsche Bank AG/Hong KongDeutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.Thus,investors shouldbe aware that the firm may have a

14、 conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors shouldconsider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.DISCLOSURES AND ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.MICA(P)072/04/2012.,Nov-11,Dec-11,Apr-11,May-11,Apr-12,May-12,Nov-12

15、,Dec-12,Feb-11,Mar-11,Feb-12,Mar-12,Sep-11,Oct-11,Jan-11,Aug-11,Aug-12,Sep-12,Oct-12,Jun-11,Jul-11,Jan-12,Jun-12,Jul-12,-20%,10.1,3.5,3.0,8.9,9.3,2.1,6.1,1.8 1.8,4.7,1.5,5.5,1.5,2 January 2013Hotels/Leisure/GamingMacauMacau stocks share price performance,Figure 2:Relative price perf of DB Macau shar

16、e priceindex vs.MSCI HK index,Figure 3:Absolute share price perf,(Jan 11=100)200,31/12/2012Macau,Company,Mkt Cap PriceUS$m local cur,YTD,1m,3m,6m,12m,190,0027.HK,Galaxy,16,344,30.4 113%,3%17%,60%,113%,180170160,MPEL.OQ2282.HK1928.HK0880.HK,Melco CrownMGM ChinaSands ChinaSJM,9,3036,87335,26313,172,16

17、.8 75%10%23%14.0 38%-3%4%34.0 55%3%17%18.0 42%-2%7%,51%22%38%26%,75%38%55%42%,150140130,1128.HK Wynn MacauMacau averageMSCI HKMSCI China,14,020,21.0 7%-5%0%55%1%11%12,364.9 24%1%5%62.8 19%5%13%,20%36%16%15%,7%55%24%19%,120,MSCI China Cons Disc,224.0 12%,5%22%,23%,12%,110,MSCI China Cons Stap,1,202.5

18、,5%-1%-1%,-1%,-1%,10001/11 04/11 07/11 10/11 01/12 04/12 07/12 10/12,Source:Deutsche Bank calculations,DataStreamMonthly revenue and macro trendsFigure 4:Macau gaming revenue yoy,Source:Deutsche Bank,DataStream,Bloomberg Finance LPFigure 5:VIP and Mass gaming revenue yoy,MOPbn,Gaming revenue(LHS),yo

19、y change(RHS),Mass table+Slot revenue yoy,30252015,100%80%60%,120%90%60%,VIP revenue yoy,40%,10,30%,50-5Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12Source:Deutsche Bank,Government dataFigure 6:AERL junkets velocity of money,20%0%,0%-30%Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-

20、10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12Source:Deutsche BankFigure 7:French fine wine price index(secondary marketprices of 50 most traded wines),US$bn4.010.49.1 9.38.42.52.01.5 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.4,VIP rolling(LHS)11.08.7 8.82.21.8 1.91.5,7.3 7.36.61.7 1.8 1.7,Velocity of money(RHS)7.26.51.9 5.6 5.55.0 4.91.6

21、1.4 1.3 1.2,(x)121084.7 61.3 4,450.0425.0400.0375.0350.0325.0300.0,Dec-28 2012 value+3%since trough in mid Nov,1.0,275.0,0.5-,20,250.0,Jan-11,Apr-11,Jul-11,Oct-11,Jan-12,Apr-12,Jul-12,Oct-12,Source:AERL company announcements,Deutsche Bank calculationsPage 2,Source:The London International Vintners E

22、xchangeThe Fine Wine 50 Index is calculated by the London International Vintners Exchange,whose members inthe wine trading and retailing business account for over 75%of global fine wine turnover.The index tracksthe daily price movement of the most heavily traded commodities in the fine wine market;t

23、he ten mostrecent vintages(excluding En Primeur,currently 2000-2009)the Bordeaux First Growths.Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong,Jan-09,Jan-10,Jan-11,Apr-09,Apr-10,Apr-11,Jan-12,Apr-12,Jul-08,Jul-09,Jul-10,Jul-11,Oct-08,Oct-09,Oct-10,Oct-11,Jul-12,Oct-12,-,-,-,-,2 January 2013Hotels/Leisure/GamingMacauSect

24、or valuationFigure 8:Sector EV/EBITDA(based on 12m forward consensus EBITDA)(x)16,141210864Source:Deutsche Bank estimates,IBES consensus,DataStreamCompany valuation chartsFigure 9:Galaxy EV/EBITDA vs.sector(on 12m fwdconsensus EBITDA)(x),+1 Std DivAvg 11.0 x-1 Std DivFigure 10:Melco Crown EV/EBITDA

25、vs.sector(on 12mfwd consensus EBITDA)(x),20.0,Galaxy,Sector average,20.0,Melco Crown,Sector average,15.0,+1 Std DivAvg 11.7x,15.0,+1 Std Div,10.0,-1 Std Div,10.0,Avg 9.9x,-1 Std Div,5.001/08 07/08 01/09 07/09 01/10 07/10 01/11 07/11 01/12 07/12Source:Deutsche Bank,IBES consensus,DataStreamFigure 11:

26、MGM China EV/EBITDA vs.sector(on 12mfwd consensus EBITDA)(x),5.001/08 07/08 01/09 07/09 01/10 07/10 01/11 07/11 01/12 07/12Source:Deutsche Bank,IBES consensus,DataStreamFigure 12:Sands China EV/EBITDA vs.sector(on 12mfwd consensus EBITDA)(x),20.0,MGM China,Sector average,20.0,Sands China,Sector aver

27、age,15.0,15.0,+1 Std DivAvg 13.8x-1 Std Div,10.05.0,+1 Std DivAvg 8.5x-1 Std Div,10.05.0,07/11,01/12,07/12,01/10,07/10,01/11,07/11,01/12,07/12,Source:Deutsche Bank,IBES consensus,DataStreamDeutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong,Source:Deutsche Bank,IBES consensus,DataStream,Page 3,2 January 2013Hotels/Leisure/G

28、amingMacau,Figure 13:SJM EV/EBITDA vs.sector(on 12m fwdconsensus EBITDA)(x),Figure 14:Wynn Macau EV/EBITDA vs.sector(on 12mfwd consensus EBITDA)(x),20.0,SJM,Sector average,20.0,Wynn Macau,Sector average,15.0,15.0,+1 Std DivAvg 13.3x,10.0,+1 Std DivAvg 8.5x,10.0,-1 Std Div,-1 Std Div,5.0-,5.0-,07/09,

29、01/10,07/10,01/11,07/11,01/12,07/12,01/10,07/10,01/11,07/11,01/12,07/12,Source:Deutsche Bank,IBES consensus,DataStreamMarket share tablesFigure 15:Overall gaming revenue market share,Source:Deutsche Bank,IBES consensus,DataStream,2011,1Q12,2Q12,3Q12,4Q12E,2012E,1Q13E,2Q13E,3Q13E,4Q13E,2013E,2014E,Ga

30、laxy-StarWorld-City Clubs-Galaxy MacauMelco Crown-Altira-City of DreamsMGM ChinaSands China-Venetian Macau-Sands Macau-Four Seasons Macau-Sands Cotai CentralSJM-Grand Lisboa-Self Promoted Casinos-Satellite CasinosWynn MacauIndustryCotai/TaipaPeninsula,16%9%2%6%15%5%9%11%16%9%5%2%0%29%9%5%16%14%100%3

31、2%68%,19%7%1%10%14%4%9%10%18%9%5%4%0%27%9%4%14%13%100%37%63%,21%8%1%11%13%3%9%10%18%7%3%4%3%27%10%4%13%12%100%38%62%,19%7%1%11%13%3%10%10%19%9%4%3%4%26%10%4%12%12%100%40%60%,19%7%1%11%13%3%9%10%21%8%3%3%6%26%10%4%12%12%100%41%59%,19%7%1%11%13%3%9%10%19%8%4%4%3%27%10%4%13%12%100%39%61%,19%7%1%11%13%3

32、%10%10%21%8%3%3%7%26%10%4%12%11%100%42%58%,19%6%1%11%13%3%10%10%21%8%3%3%7%25%10%4%11%11%100%43%57%,19%6%1%11%14%3%11%10%22%8%4%3%7%25%10%4%11%11%100%44%56%,19%6%1%12%14%3%11%10%22%8%3%3%7%24%10%3%11%11%100%44%56%,19%6%1%11%14%3%10%10%21%8%3%3%7%25%10%4%11%11%100%43%57%,19%6%1%12%14%3%11%10%23%8%3%3

33、%9%24%10%3%11%11%100%46%54%,Source:Deutsche Bank estimates,Company data,Page 4,Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong,2 January 2013Hotels/Leisure/GamingMacauFigure 16:VIP revenue market share,2011,1Q12,2Q12,3Q12,4Q12E,2012E,1Q13E,2Q13E,3Q13E,4Q13E,2013E,2014E,Galaxy-StarWorld-City Clubs-Galaxy MacauMelco Crown

34、-Altira-City of DreamsMGM ChinaSands China-Venetian Macau-Sands Macau-Four Seasons Macau-Sands Cotai CentralSJM-Grand Lisboa-Self Promoted Casinos-Satellite CasinosWynn MacauIndustryCotai/TaipaPeninsula,18%11%1%6%15%6%9%11%12%6%4%2%0%28%9%4%15%15%100%31%69%,20%9%1%10%14%5%9%11%15%6%4%5%0%26%10%3%13%

35、13%100%36%64%,23%10%1%12%13%4%9%11%15%5%2%4%3%26%12%3%12%13%100%38%62%,21%9%1%11%14%5%10%10%16%6%3%4%3%25%11%3%11%14%100%39%61%,21%9%1%11%14%4%9%11%17%5%3%4%5%25%11%3%10%13%100%40%60%,21%9%1%11%14%5%9%11%16%5%3%4%3%26%11%3%12%13%100%38%62%,21%8%1%12%14%4%10%11%18%5%3%4%5%24%11%3%10%13%100%40%60%,21%

36、8%1%12%14%4%10%11%17%5%3%4%5%24%11%3%10%13%100%41%59%,21%8%1%12%14%4%10%11%18%5%3%4%5%23%11%3%10%12%100%41%59%,21%8%1%12%15%4%11%11%18%5%3%4%6%23%11%3%9%12%100%42%58%,21%8%1%12%14%4%10%11%18%5%3%4%5%24%11%3%10%13%100%41%59%,21%8%0%12%15%4%11%11%18%5%3%4%6%23%11%2%9%12%100%43%57%,Source:Deutsche Bank

37、 estimates,Company dataFigure 17:Mass revenue market share,2011,1Q12,2Q12,3Q12,4Q12E,2012E,1Q13E,2Q13E,3Q13E,4Q13E,2013E,2014E,Galaxy-Starworld-City Clubs-Galaxy MacauMelco Crown-Altira-City of DreamsMGM ChinaSands China-Venetian Macau-Sands Macau-Four Seasons Macau-Sands Cotai CentralSJM-Grand Lisb

38、oa-Self Promoted Casinos-Satellite CasinosWynn MacauIndustryCotai/TaipaPeninsula,10%3%2%5%11%1%10%8%25%15%8%2%0%36%9%7%20%11%100%32%68%,15%3%3%9%12%1%11%7%23%15%7%2%0%33%8%7%18%10%100%38%62%,15%3%3%9%11%1%10%8%25%13%6%2%4%32%8%6%18%9%100%40%60%,16%3%3%10%11%1%10%7%27%14%6%1%5%31%8%6%17%9%100%42%58%,

39、16%3%3%10%11%1%10%7%26%13%4%1%8%31%8%6%17%8%100%44%56%,15%3%3%10%11%1%10%7%25%14%6%2%4%32%8%6%17%9%100%40%60%,16%3%2%11%11%1%10%7%27%12%4%1%9%31%8%6%17%8%100%45%55%,16%3%2%11%12%1%11%7%28%12%5%1%10%29%8%5%16%8%100%46%54%,16%3%2%11%13%1%12%7%29%12%5%1%10%29%8%6%15%8%100%48%52%,16%3%2%11%13%1%12%7%28%

40、12%5%1%10%28%8%5%15%8%100%49%51%,16%3%2%11%12%1%11%7%28%12%5%1%10%29%8%6%16%8%100%46%54%,17%3%2%12%12%1%11%7%31%12%5%1%13%28%8%5%14%7%100%49%51%,Source:Deutsche Bank estimates,Company data,Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong,Page 5,2 January 2013Hotels/Leisure/GamingMacauFigure 18:VIP rolling market share,20

41、11,1Q12,2Q12,3Q12,4Q12E,2012E,1Q13E,2Q13E,3Q13E,4Q13E,2013E,2014E,Galaxy-Starworld-City Clubs-Galaxy MacauMelco Crown-Altira-City of DreamsMGM ChinaSands China-Venetian Macau-Sands Macau-Four Seasons Macau-Sands Cotai CentralSJM-Grand Lisboa-Self Promoted Casinos-Satellite CasinosWynn MacauIndustryC

42、otai/TaipaPeninsula,18%1%10%6%16%6%9%11%12%6%4%2%0%28%10%4%14%15%100%31%69%,21%1%10%10%13%5%9%10%15%6%3%6%0%26%10%3%13%15%100%35%65%,22%1%10%11%13%5%9%10%15%5%3%4%3%26%11%4%11%14%100%37%63%,20%1%9%11%14%5%9%11%17%5%3%4%4%25%12%3%10%13%100%39%61%,20%1%9%11%14%4%10%11%17%5%3%4%5%25%12%3%10%13%100%39%6

43、1%,21%1%9%11%14%5%9%10%16%5%3%5%3%26%11%3%11%14%100%38%62%,20%1%9%11%14%4%10%11%17%5%3%4%5%25%11%3%10%12%100%40%60%,21%1%9%12%15%4%10%11%17%5%3%4%5%24%11%3%10%12%100%41%59%,21%1%8%12%15%4%11%11%17%5%3%4%5%24%11%3%10%12%100%42%58%,21%1%8%12%15%4%11%11%18%5%3%4%5%23%11%3%9%12%100%42%58%,21%1%8%12%15%4

44、%10%11%17%5%3%4%5%24%11%3%10%12%100%41%59%,21%1%8%12%16%4%11%11%18%5%3%4%6%23%12%2%9%12%100%43%57%,Source:Deutsche Bank estimates,Company data,Page 6,Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong,1.,2.,6.,7.,8.,1.,2.,6.,7.,2 January 2013Hotels/Leisure/GamingMacauAppendix 1Important DisclosuresAdditional information av

45、ailable upon requestDisclosure checklist,CompanyMelco CrownMGM ChinaSands ChinaSJMWynn Macau,TickerMPEL.OQ2282.HK1928.HK0880.HK1128.HK,Recent price*16.84(USD)31 Dec 1213.96(HKD)31 Dec 1234.00(HKD)31 Dec 1218.00(HKD)31 Dec 1220.95(HKD)31 Dec 12,Disclosure1,2,7,81,6,7,8,14,17NANA1,2,6,7,8,14,*Prices a

46、re sourced from local exchanges via Reuters,Bloomberg and other vendors.Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companiesImportant Disclosures Required by U.S.RegulatorsDisclosures marked with an asterisk may also be required by at least one jurisdiction in addition to the United States.See I

47、mportant Disclosures Required by Non-US Regulators and Explanatory Notes.Within the past year,Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s)has managed or co-managed a public or private offeringfor this company,for which it received fees.Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s)makes a market in securities issue

48、d by this company.Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s)owns one percent or more of any class of common equity securities of thiscompany calculated under computational methods required by US law.Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s)has received compensation from this company for the provision of inve

49、stmentbanking or financial advisory services within the past year.Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s)expects to receive,or intends to seek,compensation for investment bankingservices from this company in the next three months.14.Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s)has received non-investment bank

50、ing related compensation from this companywithin the past year.Important Disclosures Required by Non-U.S.RegulatorsPlease also refer to disclosures in the Important Disclosures Required by US Regulators and the Explanatory Notes.Within the past year,Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s)has managed o