HK_MARKET_MONTHLY_OUTLOOK_AND_SECTOR_UPDATE-2012-09-07.ppt
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1、,Research Department6 September,2012HK Market Monthly Outlook and Sector UpdateSummaryMonthly Market DataMonthly Market ReviewSector PerformanceMarket OutlookChina,US and Europe Macro Economic DataTop picks in Sectors under GTJA International CoverageSectors Monthly UpdateAviationAutomobiles&Compone
2、ntsBankingCement and Construction MaterialsCoalConsumer ApparelConsumer HotelsConsumer-Foods&beverage and household productsConsumer RetailingElectric EquipmentElectricityHealth careInfrastructureInsuranceInternetMachineryNew energyNonferrous MetalsOil&Gas,PetrochemicalsPortPrecious MetalsPropertySh
3、ipping and LogisticsSteelTelecommunications EquipmentTelecommunications ServicesToll roads,See the last page for disclaimer,page 1 of 33,SummaryAs of Aug 31,HK market showed an unfavorable performance with HSI down 1.58%and HSCEI down 4.07%respectively.Mainfactors to weigh on the market included the
4、 implications made on the latest policy meetings from the ECB and US Fed and also theconference at Jackson Hole,on-track economic recovery in the US,weak economy in Europe however along with relatively quietnews from the debt crisis and Chinas continuous slowing economic growth.Several recent signal
5、s have indicated the further easing policies from the US might come soon.But the timing of new policies mightbe still somewhat uncertain due to its relatively on-track economic recovery.Anyhow,the expectations on policy easing areexpected to be still in place in the near term and support the market.
6、We expect more signs to be shown in Sep for the market to judge the progress of resolving the debt crisis,compared with little bigrelated news coming out in Aug.The ECBs policy moves or hints,international creditors assessment of Greeces deficit cut,approval of starting the ESM are all important eve
7、nts to affect the market confidence.Chinas short-term economic data might continue to indicate signs of slowdown,but favorable policies help to stabilize the economygradually.Economic slowdown might not end yet in the short term,which is negative to the market.But the favorable policiesreleased or t
8、o be released could help to stabilize the economy gradually,despite it takes time for those polices to have obviouseffects on the economy.We expect the economic growth to bottom out in 2Q-3Q.Investors can now better judge the earnings outlook,as most of HK-listed companies have released their interi
9、m results,removingone of the previous market uncertainties.Its expected that investors could be more willing to purchase certain sectors or stockswith more visible and better fundamentals.We maintain views that the market may come under pressure from lackluster European economic data and slowdown of
10、 Chinaseconomic growth in the short term and may continue to fluctuate.Despite the slowdown of global economic recovery,with thedecreasing uncertainties from Europe,the expectation on the possible liquidity injection from the US,and Chinas policy measuresto stabilize its economic growth,we are still
11、 bullish on the longer-term market and corrections will create opportunities.Top picks in sectors under GTJA International coverage as of Sep.2012,SectorsAutomobileBankingCementCoalConsumer-ApparelConsumer-HotelsConsumer-Foods&beverageConsumer-Foods&beverageConsumer-RetailingElectricityHealthcareInf
12、rastructureInternetMachineryMachineryPetrochemicalsPortPrecious metalsPropertyPropertyToll roads,Company nameBrilliance AutoChina CITIC BankBBMGChina ShenhuaBelleChina LodgingChina Modern DairyChina FoodsIntimeChina Power INTLSinopharmChina Railway GroupBaiduHaitian IntlZoomlionSinopecCOSCO PacificZ
13、haojin MiningChina OverseasCR LandZhejiang Expressway,Code01114 HK00998 HK02009 HK01088 HK01880 HKHTHT US01117 HK00506 HK01833 HK02380 HK01099 HK00390 HKBIDU US01882 HK01157 HK00386 HK01199 HK01818 HK00688 HK01109 HK00576 HK,RatingAccumulateBuyAccumulateAccumulateBuyBuyAccumulateBuyBuyBuyBuyAccumula
14、teBuyBuyBuyAccumulateBuyBuyBuyBuyAccumulate,6 to 18m TP(HKD)Remarks9.00 Replace 175 HK5.82 maintained7.50 maintained34.20 maintained16.74 maintainedUS$16.20 Replace SVN US2.47 Newly added8.40 Newly added10.15 maintained2.73 maintained28.80 Replace 1666 HK3.83 maintainedUS$200.00 maintained8.30 maint
15、ained11.20 Newly added8.45 maintained12.90 maintained10.20 maintained20.50 maintained18.88 maintained6.22 maintained,Source:Guotai Junan International,See the last page for disclaimer,page 2 of 33,n.a.,Monthly Market Data,chg%,chg%,Indicator,31 Aug.,2012,mom,yoy,Remarks,HSI,19,482.57,(1.58),(5.12),M
16、onthly money net flows to HSI,HK$(548.42)mn,(95.27),net inflows turned into net outflows mom.Netoutflows largely narrowed yoy.,HSI forward PEHSI forward PBHSCEIMonthly money net flowsto HSCEIHSCEI forward PEHSCEI forward PBDaily average turnoverAH Premium Index,10.391.289,280.25HK$(1,346.85)mn7.711.
17、17HK$43,718.33 mn108.62,(0.57)(1.79)(4.07)n.a.(1.47)(4.24)2.311.74,(5.12)(10.53)(15.20)(72.78)(13.97)(21.53)(44.39)0.46,below the avg PE of 14.23 from 2006 to 2011below the avg PB of 1.87 from 2006 to 2011net inflows turned into net outflows mom.Netoutflows largely narrowed yoy.below the avg PE of 1
18、3.65 from 2006 to 2011below the avg PB of 2.22 from 2006 to 2011Lower than the avg of 121.29 since the beginning of2006,Source:Bloomberg,Guotai Junan InternationalMost Active Traded Stocks,By Turnover(HK$bn),By Volume(billion),Stock Code Stock Name941 HK CHINA MOBILE939 HK CHINA CONST BA-H1398 HK IN
19、D&COMM BK-H883 HK CNOOC LTD700 HK TENCENT HOLDINGS3988 HK BANK OF CHINA-H5 HK HSBC HLDGS PLC857 HK PETROCHINA CO-H2628 HK CHINA LIFE INS-H2318 HK PING AN INSURA-H,Turnover ofSharesTraded37.9723.3220.9719.0118.9816.5016.2316.1113.8413.73,Stock Code Stock Name3988 HK BANK OF CHINA-H1398 HK IND&COMM BK
20、-H939 HK CHINA CONST BA-H1288 HK AGRICULTURAL-H3800 HK GCL-POLY ENERGY728 HK CHINA TELECOM-H857 HK PETROCHINA CO-H386 HK CHINA PETROLEU-H883 HK CNOOC LTD,Volume ofSharesTraded5.584.724.402.201.881.741.671.391.25,494 HK13 HK1 HK16 HK1299 HK386 HK,LI&FUNG LTDHUTCHISON WHAMPOCHEUNG KONGSUN HUNG KAI PRO
21、AIA GROUP LTDCHINA PETROLEU-H,12.0412.0111.8811.6410.8810.21,Source:Bloomberg,Guotai Junan InternationalNote:only those under our coverage or as HSI and HSCEI constituentsare picked from the top 20 list,Source:Bloomberg,Guotai Junan InternationalNote:only those under our coverage or as HSI and HSCEI
22、 constituentsare picked from the top 20 list,See the last page for disclaimer,page 3 of 33,Monthly market review and short-term market outlook,Shirley Gu,Grace Liu,Monthly Market Review.As of Aug 31,HK market showed an unfavorable performance with HSI down 1.58%andHSCEI down 4.07%respectively.Main f
23、actors to weigh on the market included the implications made on the latest policymeetings from the ECB and US Fed and also the conference at Jackson Hole,on-track economic recovery in the US,weak economy in Europe however along with relatively quiet news from the debt crisis and Chinas continuous sl
24、owingeconomic growth.The US Fed didnt introduce any new specific policy at the latest FOMC meeting,in line with our expectation.TheECB also decided to maintain the current policies at the latest policy meeting,falling short of expectations and alsodisappointing the market once.But both of them impli
25、ed to consider additional accommodation or certainnon-standard policies in the future when necessary,still leaving the door open to further policy easing.Bernankesspeech at Jackson Hole indicated the effectiveness of previous easing policies and concerns towards the economicoutlook.Therefore,the exp
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