EMERGING_MARKET_CORPORATES:LATAM_OIL_&_GAS_3Q12_RESULTS_&_ZSCORE_VALUATION_UPDATE-2012-11-28.ppt
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1、,Credit,GlobalMarketsResearch,EmergingMarkets,Global Emerging MarketsOil27 November 2012,Emerging Market CorporatesLatAm Oil unchanged from our last weekly update on Nov 19th-we had three Sellrecommendations and a Hold on the remainder of the complex.Pemexs mediumterm bonds have the largest negative
2、 zscores with the 8.0%19s at-1.65,the5.75%18s at-1.59 and the 6.0%20s at-1.54.In its 3Q12 results,Pemex postedcrude oil production of 2,451kbpd-slightly below 2012 guidance of 2,560kbpd.Sales improved as local prices for oil products rose and costs remained undercontrol.As a result,EBITDA for 3Q12 d
3、eclined 3.1%qoq but increased 11.7%yoyto MXN282.8bn.Leverage remained low despite a decline in cash as Pemexstotal debt in 3Q12 declined 3.6%qoq.Year-to-date the company has issuedUSD4.35bn,matching the USD4.35bn guidance in their financing plan.,Market UpdateResearch TeamDenis ParisienResearch Anal
4、yst(+1)212 250-Natalia CorfieldResearch Analyst(+1)212 Oil&Gas spread to sovereign trend 1year period(in bps)2001501005026-Nov 26-Mar 26-Jul 26-NovECOPET 7.625 19 Petrobras 7.875 19PEMEX 8.0 19Selected Z-Scores comparison(as ofNovember 26th)26-May 26-Jul 26-Sep 26-NovECOPET 7.625 19 Petrobras 7.875
5、19PEMEX 8.0 19Z-Scores recommendations(As ofNovember 26th)Bond Prev Rec.Z-Score Cur Rec.PETBRA 5.75 20 Buy 1.61 BuyPETBRA 5.375 21 Buy 1.27 BuyPETBRA 7.75%14 Sell-1.50 SellPETBRA 6.436 15 Sell-1.78 SellPDVSA 5.0 15 Hold-1.19 SellPDVSA 5.125 16 Hold-2.04 SellPDVSA 8.5 17 Hold-1.04 SellPETBRA 5.875%18
6、 Sell-2.17 SellPETBRA 8.375%18 Sell-1.84 SellPEMEX 5.75%18 Sell-1.59 SellPEMEX 8.0%19 Sell-1.65 SellPEMEX 6.0%20 Sell-1.54 SellPDVSA 12.75 22 Sell-0.87 HoldPETBRA6.875 40 Buy 0.43 HoldPETBRA 6.75 41 Buy 0.45 Hold,1.50.5-0.5-1.5-2.5-3.5,We highlight the risks to our recommendations.Risks on the Oil a
7、nd Gas quasi sovereign bonds include but are not limited to:global growth and energy demand and commodity price risk,changes ingovernment regulation,taxation and royalty regimes,high investmentrequirements,general sovereign and fiscal risks due to their governmentownership/control and sponsorship,ch
8、anges in rules regulating foreign currencyrevenues and profits,foreign currency risks,environmental risks andproject/operating risks.Upside risks include an early,effective resolution to the EUsovereign/bank crisis and/or to the US fiscal cliff,stronger than expected globalgrowth and oil prices,and
9、unexpected rich oil and gas discoveries.Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.MICA(P)072/04/2012.,27 November 2012Page 2,Oil Emerging Market CorporatesTable of ContentsCommodities Quarterly crude oil overview.3Financial results.4Ecopetrol SA 3Q
10、12 results(unconsolidated).5Petrobras 3Q12 results.8Pemex 3Q12 results.12PDVSA.15Annex 1-Valuation trends.17Annex 2-Industry trends.19Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.,27 November 2012,Oil Emerging Market CorporatesCommodities Quarterly crude oil overviewIn the following section,we provide DBs commoditi
11、es team views regarding the outlook forcrude oil taken from the Commodities Quarterly report of October the 2nd.We highlight acondensed version of the main points of the report considering the demand and supplyanalysis,as well as the price outlook.OverviewSupply worries driven by production/export d
12、isruptions due to geopolitics and/or operationalissues have,for the most part,edged out fears over a more significant drop in demand andcontinue to pose upside risk to the market.DB economists project growth will bottom out inQ3/Q4 of this year and accelerate in 2013,largely the 2H,with GDP forecast
13、 to pick up to3.2%next year from 2.9%growth projected this year.Based on their projections,this impliesthat while global oil demand growth rates will be moderate,demand will not faltermeaningfully.In addition,central bank action,notably the Feds liquidity injections,is broadlyseen as supportive for
14、growth and consequently beneficial for commodities.DemandThe DB commodities team forecasts global oil demand next year will grow by 850kbd,or justunder 1%yoy.China remains a focal point given its dominant role in global oil demand on agrowth basis,as the countrys oil demand is expected to contribute
15、 40%of global oildemand growth next year.DB economists project Chinas GDP at 7.7%this year and 8.2%next year,down from the 8.3%and 8.6%respective forecasts made at the start of the year.Based on the recent downgrades to Chinas GDP,the countrys oil demand growth isforecasted to rise by 2.6%this year
16、and 3.7%for the next year.Demand outside of China in other parts of the EM world has been generally healthy.Forexample Saudi oil demand YTD is up 5%and Brazils oil demand YTD is up 4.3%.The DBcommodities team forecasts EM demand,excluding China,will average growth of 2.6%thisyear and 2.4%next year,l
17、ed by the Middle East and Latin America.SupplyNon-OPEC supply growth this year is forecast to exceed that of last year,according to allthree benchmark forecasters.Higher non-OPEC supply for next year is predicated onexpectations for increased production in the Middle East and Latin America,while US
18、outputgrowth is expected to moderate to about 500kbd in 2013 from 800kbd growth in 2012.However,non-OPEC production disappointments pose the risk of downward adjustments tosupply growth and disruptions that persist today will remain a key feature of next yearsbalance in light of ongoing geopolitical
19、 risks.Price outlookThe DB commodities team raised their oil price forecast in light of the impressive rebound inprices since the steep declines in June/July.Brent oil is forecast to average USD113/bbl thisyear and USD113.50/bbl next year.Geopolitical supply risks will continue to pose upside riskst
20、o the market going into next year as tensions in the Middle East persist with Iran and Syria atthe epicenter.Though economists see global growth improving next year,albeit modestly,downside risks remain in the form of a worsening Eurozone sovereign crisis,fiscaluncertainty in the US and potential de
21、terioration in Chinese economic data.,Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.,Page 3,27 November 2012,Oil Emerging Market Corporates,Financial resultsBelow we present a summary of the latest financial results of LatAms major quasi-sovereignOil&Gas companies in a comparative framework.The companies have alread
22、y reported3Q12 earnings with the exception of PDVSA,which has not released any results since its fullyear 2011 release.The fundamental operating and financial summaries presented here anddiscussed at greater length in each companys section in the following pages and in the chartannex at the end of t
23、he report,are intended to serve as a complement to the Z-Scorevaluation analysisFigure 1:LatAm Quasi sovereign Oil&Gas comps table(LTM figures),Ecopetrol S.A.,PDVSA*,Pemex,Petrobras,Financials(USDm),RevenuesEBITDAEBITDA MarginGross Interest ExpenseCash and Cash EquivalentsS-T DebtTotal DebtFree Cash
24、 FlowBroad Free Cash Flow,33,112.515,818.547.8%(232.1)3,613.9248.23,141.84,354.84,804.4,124,754.048,763.039.1%(3,633.0)10,324.02,396.034,892.013,411.011,985.0,123,562.088,049.871.3%(5,566.6)8,890.47,991.157,890.0(8,495.6)(9,338.6),144,605.629,619.520.5%(5,152.6)25,967.27,570.692,062.8(25,066.9)(26,5
25、70.4),Summary Ratios,Total Debt/EBITDANet Debt/EBITDAS-T Debt/Total DebtCash/S-T DebtEBITDA/Int ExpenseLTM OCF/Total Debt,0.20 x-0.03x7.9%14.56x68.14x596.8%,0.72x0.50 x6.9%4.31x13.42x106.6%,0.66x0.56x13.8%1.11x15.82x138.3%,3.11x2.23x8.2%3.43x5.75x32.9%,Operational DataProduction Volume,Crude Oil(kbp
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