CHINAPROPERTY：DECEMBERSALESSTABLEASDEVELOPERSHAVEACHIEVEDTARGETS1223.ppt

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1、Top picks,Buy,Buy,Buy,Buy,Buy,Buy,Buy,Buy,Buy,Buy,Buy,Buy,Buy,Buy,Buy,Buy,Sell,Sell,Deutsche BankMarkets Research,AsiaChinaPropertyProperty,IndustryChina Property,Date21 December 2012Industry UpdateTony TsangJason Ching,CFA,December sales stable as developershave achieved targetsDevelopers see slowe

2、r/stable sales in DecemberWe have surveyed 19 key listed developers on their contracted sales inDecember MTD-most developers expect sales to be stable or slightly down.Among the 19,two expect a slightly positive MoM trend,seven expect slowersales as they have achieved their annual targets already,an

3、d the other 10developers see stable sales as year-end approaches.With developers achievinga high percentage of their full-year sales targets and Northern China enteringits low season in property sales,we believe property sales in December 2012are unlikely to show a significant pick-up.Agile and Yuex

4、iu expect stronger sales;Kaisa,R&F and Longfor hitting annualtargets10 developers Country Garden,Central China,COLI,COGO,CR Land,Glorious,Kaisa,Poly Property,R&F and Sino-ocean expect a stable MoMtrend in sales.On the other hand,seven developers C C Land,China Vanke,Evergrande,Greentown,Longfor,Minm

5、etals and Sunac expect slower salesin December.Most of the listed developers who said they expected slowersales have already completed/surpassed their respective full-year sales targets.The remaining developers Agile and Yuexiu expect sales in December toimprove.Agile expects to achieve the GFA targ

6、et in 2012 while Yuexiu isexpecting to achieve RMB12-12.4bn in 2012 and Longfor estimates it will meetits annual target of RMB39bn.Strong 11M12 YoY growth rate,and high percentage of 2012 target-achievingMost developers have a strong YoY growth in 11M12.Among them all,Sunachas the highest YoY growth

7、 rate of 70%,while there is a 66%growth rate forGreentown,61%for Yuexiu,53%for CR Land,and 48%for Poly Property.Inaddition,10 out of the 19 developers have over-achieved their annual salestargets in 2012,i.e.,a 103%sales hit rate for Central China,106%for COLI,102%for COGO,115%for CR Land,106%for Ev

8、ergrande,114%forGreentown,102%for Minmetals,111%for Poly Property,109%for Sino-Ocean,and 118%for Yuexiu.Sector fundamentals best since 2010In 2H09-10,new supply in the commodity residential market fell,due to tightfinancing for Chinese developers.We expect this falling supply scenario to,Research An

9、alyst Research Analyst(+852)2203 6256(+852)2203 Alex TamResearch Associate(+852)2203 COLI(0688.HK),HKD23.25China Resources Land(1109.HK),HKD21.00China Ovs Grand Oceans(0081.HK),HKD9.34Country Garden Holdings(2007.HK),HKD3.72Guangzhou R&F Prop(2777.HK),HKD12.78Companies FeaturedCOLI(0688.HK),HKD23.25

10、China Resources Land(1109.HK),HKD21.00China Ovs Grand Oceans(0081.HK),HKD9.34Sunac(1918.HK),HKD5.43Country Garden Holdings(2007.HK),HKD3.72Guangzhou R&F Prop(2777.HK),HKD12.78KWG Property(1813.HK),HKD5.46C C Land(1224.HK),HKD2.42Minmetals Land Limited(0230.HK),HKD1.17Kaisa(1638.HK),HKD2.34Central Ch

11、ina Real Estate(0832.HK),HKD2.22Sino Ocean(3377.HK),HKD5.35Yanlord Land(YNLG.SI),SGD1.48,happen again in 2013,on the back of 1)lower inventory levels;2)falling newconstruction starts in 2012;and 3)continually declining land sales(in the top300 cities)in 2011 and 2012.With the expected fall in new su

12、pply,we expectpricing power to return for the developers and property prices to likely rise by5-10%in 2013.In this scenario,we believe overlooked,quality mid-and small-cap developers should see stronger valuation re-ratings ahead.More favorable supply picture in 2013;Add more betaOur mid-and small-c

13、ap top picks are R&F,Greentown,C C Land,Kaisa,Sunac,Minmetals Land and Central China Real Estates.For big caps,our top picks forgrowth are COLI,CR Land and COGO.We recommend selling Sino Ocean andYanlord.We derive our target prices from NAV and DCF.Key risks:widespreadfinancial distress and a sharp

14、deterioration in the economy._Deutsche Bank AG/Hong KongDeutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.Thus,investors shouldbe aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors shouldconsider thi

15、s report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.DISCLOSURES AND ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.MICA(P)072/04/2012.,21 December 2012PropertyChina PropertyDevelopers see slower/stablesales in DecemberAgile and Yuexiu expect stronger sales;Kaisa,R&F and Longforhitt

16、ing annual targetWe have surveyed 19 key listed developers on their contracted sales in December MTD most developers expect sales to be stable or slightly down in December.Among the19,two expect a slightly positive MoM trend,seven expect slower sales as they haveachieved their annual targets already

17、,and the other 10 developers see stable sales asyear-end approaches.Most of the listed developers who said they expected slowersales have already completed/surpassed their respective full-year sales targets,prompting them to be less aggressive in pushing new launches.Some of thedevelopers have even

18、started to raise the ASP for selected projects,as the need tochase sales targets is minimized and market sentiment continues to improve.Withdevelopers already achieving a high percentage of their full-year sales targets andNorthern China entering its low season in property sales,we believe property

19、sales inDecember 2012 are unlikely to show a significant pick-up.Figure 1:China property contracted sales performance in November 2012,CompanyAgileC C LandC.GardenCentral ChinaChina VankeCOLI(HK$)COGO(HK$)CR LandEvergrandeGloriousGreentownKaisa,Ticker3383.HK1224.HK2007.HK0832.HK000002.SZ0688.HK0081.

20、HK1109.HK3333.HK0845.HK3900.HK1638.HK,Expectation for full monthRMB3.2-3.5bnRMB5-6bnRMB5bnRMB600mnRMB3-4bnRMB5-6bnRMB4bnRMB2bn,Better than October?Slightly upDown;hit annual target alreadyStableStableDown;almost hit annual targetStableStableStableDown;hit annual target alreadyStableDown;hit annual t

21、arget alreadyStable;expect to achieve annual target of,RMB16.5-17bn,Longfor,0960.HK,RMB3bn,Slightly down;expect to hit annual target of,RMB39bn,Minmetals,0230.HK,RMB700mn,Slightly down;expect to achieve RMB4.8bn in,2012,Poly PropertyR&FSino-oceanSunacYuexiu,0119.HK2777.HK3377.HK1918.HK0123.HK,RMB2bn

22、RMB2.7-2.8bnRMB2bnRMB500mn,Stable;expect to achieve RMB22-23bn in 2012StableStableDown;hit annual target alreadyUp;expect to achieve RMB12-12.4bn in 2012,Source:Company data,Deutsche Bank10 developers Country Garden,Central China,COLI,COGO,CR Land,Glorious,Kaisa,Poly Property,R&F and Sino-ocean expe

23、ct a stable MoM trend in sales.On the otherhand,seven developers C C Land,China Vanke,Evergrande,Greentown,Longfor,Minmetals and Sunac expect slower sales in December.The remaining developers Agile and Yuexiu expect sales in December to improve.Agile expects to achieve theGFA target in 2012 while Yu

24、exiu is expecting to achieve RMB12-12.4bn in 2012 andLongfor estimates it will meet its annual target of RMB39bn.,Page 2,Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong,%,21 December 2012PropertyChina PropertyFigure 2:Contracted sales of major developers(in RMBm)November 2012,%achieved,%achieved,achieved,2012,in 11M12,2

25、012,in 11M12,2011,in,Target,(Revised,Target,(Original,%YoY-,%MoM-,%YoY-,CompanyAgileAoyuanBC LandCC LandCCREChina SCE,Ticker3383 HK3883 HK2868 HK1224 HK832 HK1966 HK,11M1128,0004,20010,1205,2667,9094,460,Target37,0005,50015,0007,5007,3005,500,11M1176%76%67%70%108%81%,11M1227,0704,58011,0006,7379,300

26、5,209,(Revised)35,0005,00012,0006,8079,0004,000,target)90%92%92%99%103%130%,(Original)35,0005,00012,0006,8079,0004,000,target)90%92%92%99%103%130%,11M12-3%9%9%28%18%17%,Nov-123,220610870936720701,Nov 124%10%-26%15%-10%13%,Nov 1274%142%-22%205%76%312%,China Vanke 200002 CH 115,720 120,000,96%,127,150

27、,133,000,96%,133,000,96%,10%,17,130,25%,107%,COLICOGOC.GardenCR LandEvergrandeFantasiaGemdaleGloriousGreentownKaisaKWGLongForMinmetalsPoly CN,688 HK81 HK2007 HK1109 HK3333 HK1777 HK600383 CH845 HK3900 HK1638 HK1813 HK960 HK230 HK600048 CH,81,565na39,40030,07079,1116,49026,21012,77227,40013,44710,897

28、35,6403,33867,622,80,0007,00043,00030,00070,0006,00032,50015,00050,00015,00015,00040,0004,04580,000,102%na92%100%113%108%81%85%55%90%73%89%83%85%,105,89513,23042,09046,02084,6307,17229,89010,35045,50015,00011,20035,8604,06792,032,100,00013,00043,00040,00080,0007,20032,50013,00040,00016,50012,00039,0

29、004,00080,000,106%102%98%115%106%100%92%80%114%91%93%92%102%115%,80,00010,00043,00040,00080,0007,20032,50013,00040,00016,50012,00039,0004,00080,000,132%132%98%115%106%100%92%80%114%91%93%92%102%115%,30%na7%53%7%11%14%-19%66%12%3%1%22%36%,5,2155706,0904,16011,7909793,9005607,6002,2001,1543,9208998,70

30、3,-41%-34%-5%0%-17%29%6%-37%31%22%-8%3%100%13%,50%na144%52%852%112%2%-18%153%76%43%30%469%77%,Poly Property 119 HK,14,300,18,000,79%,21,100,19,000,111%,16,000,132%,48%,1,800,-14%,50%,PowerlongR&FSZ InvShimaoSino-OceanSPG LandSunacYuexiuYuzhou,1238 HK2777 HK604 HK813 HK3377 HK337 HK1918 HK123 HK1628

31、HK,5,22926,3204,23628,45723,9002,84915,8067,3514,031,10,00032,0004,70036,00030,0008,00018,3009,0006,500,52%82%90%79%80%36%86%82%62%,5,64029,1995,75042,28629,3002,46026,88011,8396,160,6,00032,0006,00030,70027,0004,20030,00010,0005,000,94%91%96%138%109%59%90%118%123%,6,00032,0006,00030,70027,0004,2002

32、2,00010,0005,000,94%91%96%138%109%59%122%118%123%,8%11%36%49%23%-14%70%61%53%,4602,7507613,0542,2001134,080203409,-17%-33%20%-14%-37%-44%13%-63%-32%,-28%-2%101%75%0%-53%134%-75%130%,Average,82%,101%,105%,22%,-4%,109%,Source:Deutsche Bank,Company data,Note:COLI and COGO in HKDm,Deutsche Bank AG/Hong

33、Kong,Page 3,Sep-10,Sep-11,Sep-12,Nov-10,Nov-11,May-10,May-11,May-10,May-11,May-12,Nov-11,May-11,May-12,Mar-11,Mar-12,Nov-12,Jan-11,Sep-11,Jan-12,Sep-12,Jul-11,Jul-12,Nov-11,May-12,Sep-10,Sep-11,Nov-10,Nov-11,Sep-12,Nov-12,Nov-12,Nov-12,Sep-12,Mar-10,Mar-11,Mar-12,Jul-10,Jul-11,Jan-10,Jan-11,Mar-10,M

34、ar-11,Mar-12,Jan-10,Jan-11,Jan-12,Jan-11,May-11,Sep-11,Jan-12,Jan-12,Jul-10,Jul-11,Jul-12,May-12,Mar-11,Mar-12,Jul-11,Shimao,Yuexiu,Yuzhou,ChinaSCE,CRLand,PolyCN,PolyProperty,COLI,Sino-Ocean,COGO,Greentown,CCRE,Evergrande,Powerlong,Fantasia,CCLand,BCLand,C.Garden,SZInv,KWG,ChinaVanke,R&F,LongFor,Gem

35、dale,Aoyuan,Minmetals,Kaisa,Sunac,Glorious,Agile,SPGLand,Jul-12,Jul-12,MoM,YoY,21 December 2012PropertyChina Property,Figure 3:31 developers total contracted sales MoM,Figure 4:31 developers total contracted sales YoY,140120100,Mthly Contracted Sales Momentum-MoM,140%120%100%80%,140120100,Mthly Cont

36、racted Sales Momentum-YoY,140%120%100%80%,60%,60%,80604020-31 developers total mthly contracted sales(RMBbn)Source:Company data,Deutsche BankFigure 5:31 developers average sales YoY YTD120%YTD Avg Sales YoY100%80%60%40%,40%20%0%-20%-40%-60%-80%,80604020-31 developers total mthly contracted sales(RMB

37、bn)Source:Company data,Deutsche BankFigure 6:31 developers average sales YoY monthly140%Avg Mthly Sales YoY120%100%80%60%,40%20%0%-20%-40%-60%-80%,40%,20%0%-20%-40%-60%-80%Source:Company data,Deutsche BankFigure 7:YTD sales target achievement1.4,20%0%-20%-40%-60%-80%Source:Company data,Deutsche Bank

38、,1.210.80.60.40.20Source:Company data,Deutsche BankPage 4,%achieved in 11M12(Revised target),Average,Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong,Yuexiu,Sunac,CRLand,Greentown,Yuzhou,PolyProperty,Shimao,PolyCN,COLI,SZInv,Sino-Ocean,CCLand,Gemdale,CCRE,Powerlong,R&F,BCLand,ChinaSCE,Kaisa,Fantasia,ChinaVanke,Aoyuan,KWG

39、,Minmetals,LongFor,C.Garden,Evergrande,Agile,SPGLand,Glorious,21 December 2012PropertyChina PropertyFigure 8:YTD contracted sales growth ranking1,0.80.60.40.20-0.2-0.4Source:Company data,Deutsche BankDeutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong,%YoY-11M12,Average,Page 5,Nov-09,Nov-10,Nov-11,May-09,May-10,May-11,May-1

40、2,Mar-09,Mar-10,Mar-11,Sep-09,Sep-10,Sep-11,Mar-09,Mar-10,Mar-11,Mar-12,Nov-09,Nov-10,Nov-11,Sep-12,Jul-09,Jul-10,Jul-11,Jul-12,May-09,May-10,May-11,May-12,Nov-12,Jan-09,Jan-10,Jan-11,Jan-12,Mar-12,May-09,Nov-09,May-10,Nov-10,Sep-09,May-11,Nov-11,Sep-10,May-12,Mar-09,Mar-10,Mar-11,Mar-09,Mar-10,Mar-

41、11,Mar-12,Nov-09,Nov-10,Nov-11,May-09,May-10,May-11,May-12,Nov-12,Mar-12,Sep-09,Sep-10,Sep-11,Sep-12,Nov-09,Nov-10,Nov-11,May-09,May-10,May-11,May-12,Nov-09,Nov-10,Nov-11,May-09,May-10,May-11,May-12,Mar-09,Mar-10,Mar-11,Mar-12,Nov-12,Jan-09,Sep-09,Jan-10,Sep-10,Jan-11,Sep-11,Jan-12,Sep-12,Jul-09,Jul

42、-10,Jul-11,Jul-12,Mar-09,Mar-10,Mar-11,Mar-12,Nov-12,Jan-12,Sep-09,Sep-10,Sep-11,Sep-12,Jan-09,Jan-10,Jan-11,Jul-09,Jul-10,Jul-11,Jul-12,Nov-12,Sep-11,Jan-09,Jan-10,Jan-11,Jan-12,Sep-12,Jan-09,Jan-10,Jan-11,Jan-12,Jul-09,Jul-10,Jul-11,Jul-09,Jul-10,Jul-11,Jul-12,Jul-12,Nov-12,Jan-09,Jan-10,Jan-11,Se

43、p-09,Sep-10,Sep-11,Jan-12,Sep-12,Jul-09,Jul-10,Jul-11,Jul-12,21 December 2012PropertyChina PropertyTaking a look at valuations,Figure 9:Sector discount to NAV0%-10%-20%-30%,Figure 10:Sector discount to NAV(mkt cap weighted)0%-10%-20%-30%,-40%-40%-50%-50%-60%,-70%-80%,-60%-70%,Sector Avg Discount to

44、NAV,Mean,+1SD,-1SD,Sector Avg Disc to NAV(MktCap Wtd),Mean,+1SD,-1SD,Source:Deutsche Bank,Company dataFigure 11:Sector P/E30.0 x25.0 x,Source:Deutsche Bank,Company dataFigure 12:Sector P/E(mkt cap weighted)25.0 x20.0 x,20.0 x15.0 x15.0 x10.0 x10.0 x,5.0 x0.0 x,5.0 x0.0 x,Sector Avg P/E,Mean,+1SD,-1S

45、D,Sector Avg P/E(MktCap Wtd),Mean,+1SD,-1SD,Source:Deutsche Bank,Company dataFigure 13:Sector P/B2.5x2.0 x,Source:Deutsche Bank,Company dataFigure 14:Sector P/B(mkt cap weighted)3.0 x2.5x,2.0 x1.5x1.5x,1.0 x0.5x0.0 x,1.0 x0.5x0.0 x,Sector Avg P/B(MktCap Wtd),Mean,+1SD,-1SD,Sector Avg P/BSource:Deuts

46、che Bank,Company dataPage 6,Mean,+1SD,-1SD,Source:Deutsche Bank,Company data,Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong,21 December 2012PropertyChina PropertyFigure 15:China property valuation table,DB,Trade Report,MktCap,12MDailyT/O,Dec20,Target Implied,Est.,NAV,EPS,PE(x),Company,Ticker,Rating,Ccy,Ccy,USDm USDm Pr

47、ice,Price Upside NAV,Disc,11A,12A,13F,11A,12A,13F,Covered,COLICR LandLongforCountry GardenEvergrandeR&FAgileCSCISino-OceanSOHO ChinaGreentownHui Xian REITFranshionYuexiuShui OnCOGOPoly PropertyYanlordSunacKWGKaisa,688 HK1109 HK960 HK2007 HK3333 HK2777 HK3383 HK3311 HK3377 HK410 HK3900 HK87001 HK817

48、HK123 HK272 HK81 HK119 HKYLLG SP1918 HK1813 HK1638 HK,BuyBuyBuyBuyBuyBuyBuyBuySellBuyBuyBuyBuyBuyBuyBuyBuySellBuyBuyBuy,HKDHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDCNYHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDSGDHKDHKDHKD,HKD 24,886 56.46HKD 15,452 22.75CNY 10,381 13.92CNY 8,585 12.19CNY 7,920 45.54CNY 5,397 9.90CNY 4,816 17.16HKD 4,660

49、 8.92CNY 4,189 3.92CNY 3,925 6.54CNY 3,558 3.38CNY 3,332 1.81HKD 3,180 1.81CNY 2,963 6.06CNY 2,904 3.32HKD 2,665 3.17HKD 2,659 11.43CNY 2,405 5.96CNY 2,100 3.64CNY 2,057 5.61CNY 1,481 2.02,23.6020.5514.823.654.1012.9810.829.295.555.9512.884.092.692.473.759.055.711.515.405.512.34,25.7021.8016.003.856

50、.1616.7912.9510.003.637.7016.554.633.553.045.019.917.821.006.666.594.00,9%6%8%5%50%29%20%8%-35%29%28%13%32%23%34%10%37%-34%23%20%71%,28.627.320.05.58.828.018.510.09.112.825.56.65.14.38.412.411.22.010.311.06.7,-17%-25%-26%-34%-53%-54%-42%-7%-39%-54%-49%-38%-47%-43%-55%-27%-49%-25%-47%-50%-65%,1.591.0