CONSUMERSECTOR:LONGTERMTRENDREMAINSDESPITETWISTEDSALESPATTERNDURING“GOLDENWEEK”1024.ppt
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1、,ConsumerSector消费行业,SectorReport,GTJAResearch国泰君安研究,5%,10%,15%,Sector Report:Consumer Sector行业报告:消费行业24 October 2012Long Term Trend Remains Despite Twisted Sales Pattern during“Golden Week”尽管“黄金周”期间销售模式扭曲,长期趋势不变Chinas tourism revenue was RMB210.5 billion,up 26.3%YoY on,an adjusted basis during“Golde
2、n Week”and the rapid growth inairlines passenger traffic in“Golden Week”also reflected thattourism demand was very strong.However,according to thesurveillance data by Ministry of Commerce,the nationwide sales ofkey retail and catering enterprises were up by only 15%yoy,which isthe lowest since 2007.
3、Sales growth of food and apparel for 100 majorretail enterprises outpaced the total growth but remained weak during“Golden Week”.Vehicle sales during“Golden Week”increasedslowly due to the demand overdrawn before the holidays andsignificant sales drop of Japanese branded vehicles.Although“Golden Wee
4、k”twisted the general sales pattern in a,Stock Performance股价表现25%20%15%10%5%0%,short period,we expect it will not change the long term trend ineach of our consumer sub sectors.The economy chain hotels are,20%201110,201112,201202 201204Consumer,201206HSI,201208,201210,expected to continue to benefit
5、from the increased travel.China is,expected to be a world leader in number of hotels by 2025.Despitetemporary slowdown in retail,food and beverage as well as apparelsales growth,we believe consumers willingness to spend will improvein 2013 on expectations of faster economic growth.Our top picks fort
6、he consumer sector include Brilliance(1114 HK),China Lodging,Change in Share Price股价变动Abs.%绝对变动%Rel.%to HS index相对恒指变动%,1M1 个月6.82.2,3M3 个月12.31.8,1Y1 年(1.4)(21.8),(HTHT US),Vinda(3331 HK),Belle(1880 HK)and Intime(1833 HK).,Source:Bloomberg.,“黄金周”期间,中国旅游业总收入是 210.5 亿元人民币(经调整),同比增长26.3%。“黄金周”期间,航空公司的
7、客运增长迅速也反映出旅游需求非常强烈。但是根据商务部的统计数据,全国重点零售销售和餐饮企业的增长率只有 15%,这是自 2007 年以来最低的增长率。在“黄金周”期间,全国百家重点大零售企业的食品和服装销售增长均超过总增长率,但是增速仍然维持疲弱。另外汽车销售在“黄金周”增长缓慢,主要是由于假期之前的需求透支和日本品牌汽车销售大幅下滑。虽然“黄金周”在很短的期间扭曲了一般的销售模式,我们认为这将不会改变我们每个消费子行业的长期趋势。经济连锁酒店预计将继续受益于旅行的增加。中国预计到 2025 年按酒店数量计算将处于全球的领导地位。尽管目前零售、服装和食品饮料销售增长放缓,我们相信消费者的消费意
8、愿在 2013 年将因应更快的经济增长预期而有所提高。我们的消费行业的首选包括华晨汽车(1114 HK)、汉庭(HTHTUS)、维达(3331 HK)、百丽(1880 HK)和 银泰百货(1833 HK)。,Jerry Peng 彭港祥+86 755 Sunny Kwok 郭日升+852 2509.hkHarry Chen 陈欢瑜+86 755,Noah Hudson+86 755 Frank Xu 许智程+86 755,Company Name公司名称Automobiles&ComponentsAviationConsumer-ApparelConsumer-Foods&Beveragean
9、d Household ProductsConsumer-HotelsConsumer-RetailSimple average,Rating投资评级NeutralNeutralOutperformOutperformOutperformOutperform,12 PER市盈率(x)19.512.210.524.432.419.519.7,13 PER市盈率(x)13.39.011.417.819.516.614.6,14 PER市盈率(x)11.18.19.214.316.314.212.2,12 ROE净资产收益率(%)14.29.118.416.48.318.114.1,12 P/B市净
10、率(x)1.81.01.93.42.43.22.3,12 Yield股息率(%)1.01.05.01.40.02.21.8,SourceBloomberg,Guotai Junan International.,See the last page for disclaimer,Page 1 of 18,24October2012,SectorReport,ConsumerSector消费行业,“GOLDEN WEEK”STATISTICSTourism revenue increased 26.3%YoY during“Golden Week”.According to statistics
11、from the National TourismAdministration of China,during the 8 days of Chinas“Golden Week”,Chinas tourism revenue was RMB210.5 billion,up 26.3%YoY on an adjusted basis.There were a total of 425 million person trips during the period,up 23.3%YoY.The number ofovernight trips where travelers stayed at h
12、otels or other lodging facilities increased 19.0%YoY to 96.94 million.The number ofday trip travelers reached 328 million,up 24.6%YoY.Table-1:2012“Golden Week”Travel Statistics,2012 Golden Week,YoY,Tourism revenueTravelersOvernight lodging staysDay trip travelers,RMB210.5 billion425 million person t
13、rips96.94 million328 million,26.3%23.3%19.0%24.6%,Source:National Tourism Administration of China.Airlines passenger numbers increased rapidly during“Golden Week”.According to China Aviation Administration ofChina(“CAAC”),there were 7.6 million passengers who traveled through airlines during Chinas“
14、Golden Week”(Sept.30-Oct.7),up 27%YoY.Compared with previous years,the passenger number growth of“Golden Week”2012 was the highest duringthe past 6 years,while the daily passenger number growth was close to the historical average.The rapid growth of passengernumbers was mainly due to longer holidays
15、 and the delay of travelling as a result of frequent natural disasters in spring andsummer this year.In addition,easing VISA requirement of developed countries,including U.S.,Korea and Japan,as well asRMB appreciation this year has boosted the number of outbound travelers significantly.Table-2:Airli
16、nes Passenger Number Growth during the“Golden Week”,2007-2012,Year200720082009201020112012,Number ofHolidays778778,Passenger number(000)3,7504,3305,2905,7505,9807,600,YoY Growth24%15%22%9%4%27%,Daily passengernumber(000)536619661821854950,YoY Growth24%15%7%24%4%11%,Source:CAAC,Guotai Junan Internati
17、onal.Unexciting nominal retail sales data for“Golden Week”.According to the surveillance data by Ministry of Commerce,the2012“Golden Week”(excluding the Spring Festival holiday)nationwide sales of key retail and catering enterprises amountedto RMB 800.6 billion,up by 15%compared with the“Golden Week
18、”in 2011,which was the lowest growth rate since 2007.Ifincluding the Spring Festival holiday,the nominal sales growth rate of the 2012“Golden Week”was higher than that of the2009 Spring Festival holiday but lower than in 2010 and 2011.However,considering the inflation rate at the moment is lowerthan
19、 most of the time since 2010,the real sales growth of 2012“Golden Week”is therefore on par with the sales of all the longholidays(inc.both Spring Festival holiday and“Golden Week”)since 2010.In addition,according to the China NationalCommercial Information Center(CNCIC),the aggregate sales of 100 ma
20、jor retail enterprises in China during the“GoldenWeek”grew 8.49%.The growth was strong at the beginning of the holiday,where the sales growth of the Mid-Autumn Festivalrecorded an outstanding figure of 52.54%YoY,but then quickly declined to 3.06%YoY for the Chinese National Holiday.Bydaily average f
21、igure,the sales of key retail and catering enterprises during 2012“Golden Week”holiday were RMB 100.1billion,compared with RMB 99.5 billion in 2011,the growth was only 0.6%YoY,which is historically low.Despite of the effect ofone extra holiday this year,we witnessed the implementation of certain fav
22、orable macro policies before the“Golden Week”holiday in the context of promoting consumption,which we believe has cannibalized some“Golden Week”sales growth.Thepolicy of the State Council that allows free passage of passenger cars with seven seats or fewer on toll roads,bridges andtunnels during maj
23、or national holidays had the most obvious effect.From the feedback of our channel check,we consider theamazing tourism data during the“Golden Week”holiday can be used to explain the fairly low traffic recorded in certain retailenterprises.,See the last page for disclaimer,Page 2 of 18,24October2012,
24、SectorReport,ConsumerSector消费行业,Table-3:Historical Sales of Key Retail and Catering Enterprises for the“Golden Week”.,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,No.of daysSocial retail sales(RMB Bil)Growth%Daily average sales(RMB Bil)Daily average growth%,7270.014.2%38.6,7300.014.5%42.911.1%,7350.016.0
25、%50.016.7%,7420.021.0%60.020.0%,8570.018.0%71.318.8%,7592.518.7%84.618.8%,7696.217.5%99.517.5%,8800.615.0%100.10.6%,Source:Ministry of Commerce of the PRC,Guotai Junan International.Figure-1:Comparison of Historical Sales and Growth of Spring Festival Holiday(SF)and“Golden Week”(GW).,900.0,Sales(lef
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