GEMSFLOWOFFUNDS：GEMFUNDSINCREASERUSSIANANDINDIANEQUITYHOLDINGS1213.ppt

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1、,Equity StrategyGlobal Emerging markets,abcGlobal Research,GEMs flow of fundsGEM funds increase Russian and Indianequity holdingsWietse Nijenhuis*GEMs Equity StrategistHSBC Bank plc(UK)+44 20 7992 John Lomax*GEMs Equity StrategistHSBC Bank plc(UK)+44 20 7992 Kishore Muktinutalapati*Associate,Bangalo

2、reView HSBC Global Research at http:/*Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities(USA)Inc,and is not registered/qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations,GEMs funds preference overdeveloped market funds remains Russia and India witness increasedallocations in GEM funds By GEM sector,funds exposu

3、re toTelecoms and IT was slashedIn this monthly note,we analyse the liquidity flow trendsand fund manager positioning around Emerging market(EM)equities.Data was obtained from EPFR Global andthe latest data point pertains to August 2012.On aggregate,EM equity funds witnessed negligible netflow activ

4、ity during August.However,EM equity fundswere preferred over DM equity funds.Year-to-date,EMequity funds have added 1.9%to their AuM while DMfunds lost about 0.5%of AuM.By regional fund group level,GEMs equity funds(withbroad mandate to invest in equities across EM regionsand countries)registered in

5、flows in August,while Asiaex Japan,EMEA and LatAm funds posted outflows(bottom left chart on page 4).The preference for GEMs,while the Philippines,Peru,Taiwan,Malaysia,Chile andMexico posted outflows(top left chart on page 4).It is worth bearing in mind that the announcements aboutthe ECBs bond buyi

6、ng program and the Feds QE are notcaptured into the flow data for the month of August.However,our analysis of the high frequency(weekly)datashowed that EM equity funds enjoyed significant inflowsin the week ending 19 September(GEM funds flows-Solidinflows into EM funds,21 September 2012).In terms of

7、 GEM funds country allocation during August,of the major markets,India and Russia enjoyed significantinterest compared to the medium-term history.The activeweight of India(fund manager allocation less thebenchmark weight)is the highest since April 2005(bottom left chart on page 26)while for Russia i

8、t iscurrently at the highest level since May 2010(top leftchart on page 16).The relative(to MSCI benchmark)weight of GEM funds exposure to India and Russiaincreased by 5%and 3%respectively during August.Among the smaller markets,GEM funds increased theirrelative exposure to Colombia(by 12%),Thailand

9、(2%),Peru(2%),Egypt(2%)and Indonesia(2%).These moveswere funded by cutting back exposure to Hungary(by,Issuer of report:,HSBC Bank plc,equity funds over other regional funds has been in place,9%),Czech Republic(4%),South Korea(3%),Malaysia,25 September 2012Disclaimer&DisclosuresThis report must be r

10、ead with thedisclosures and the analyst certificationsin the Disclosure appendix,and with theDisclaimer,which forms part of it,since April last year(top right chart on page 7),indicating investors preference for a diversifiedapproach to EM equities.At the dedicated country fund level,South Korea,Egy

11、pt,Poland,Turkey and Colombia registered sizable inflows,(3%),Chile(2%)and Brazil(2%).At a GEM sector level,funds increased their exposureto Industrials,Health Care,Consumer Staples andMaterials,and funded this by cutting the relativeweights in Telecoms and IT.For details,see page 12.,7,8,Equity Str

12、ategyGlobal Emerging markets25 September 2012Contents,abc,Funds flows,3,CEEMEA,15,EM Asia,25,Cross-sectional comparison of Flow of Funds(%of AuM)4,Russia,16,China,26,Monthly Flow(%of AuM),5,South Africa,16,India,26,Cumulative flows to EM and DM equity funds(%of AuM)6Cumulative flows to EM and DM equ

13、ity funds split by,TurkeyEgypt,1717,KoreaTaiwan,2727,ETFs and non-ETFs(%of AuM)Cumulative flows into EM regional equity funds(%ofAuM)Cumulative flows into EM regional equity funds split by,67,PolandHungaryCzech Republic,181819,MalaysiaIndonesiaThailandPhilippines,28282929,ETFs and non-ETFs(%of AuM),

14、AuM of EM regional equity funds,LatAmBrazil,2122,GEM SectorsFinancials,Materials,3132,AuM of EM regional equity funds split by ETFs and non-ETFs,8,MexicoChile,2223,EnergyConsumer Discretionary,TelecomsConsumer Staples,3233,GEM fund positioningGEM Equity Fund Allocations,1113,ColombiaPeru,2324,Indust

15、rialsUtilities,Information TechnologyHealth Care,3334,AppendixDisclosure appendixDisclaimer,3637392,Equity StrategyGlobal Emerging markets,abc,25 September 2012Funds flows3,Indonesia,S.Africa,India,Thailand,Poland,Russia,China,Czech,Chile,Colombia,S.Korea,Brazil,Peru,Philippines,Egypt,Mexico,Malaysi

16、a,Taiwan,Turkey,Indonesia,Colombia,S.Africa,Brazil,India,Thailand,China,Poland,Russia,Chile,S.Korea,CzechRep.,Egypt,Peru,Philippines,Malaysia,Taiwan,Mexico,Turkey,HealthCare,Cons.Disc.,Industrials,Cons.Staples,Materials,Telecom,Financials,Energy,Utilities,IT,Equity StrategyGlobal Emerging markets25

17、September 2012Cross-sectional comparison of Flow of Funds(%of AuM),abc,Flows into dedicated emerging country equity funds over the last month and 3 monthaverage(%of AuM)10.0%5.0%0.0%-5.0%-10.0%-15.0%,Flows into dedicated emerging country equity funds over the last month and 12 monthaverage(%of AuM)1

18、0.0%5.0%0.0%-5.0%-10.0%-15.0%,Last Month Flow(%of AuM),3 Month Av erage,Last Month Flow(%of AuM),12 Month Av erage,Source:EPFR Global,HSBCFlows into major regional equity funds over the last month and 3 month average(%of AuM),Source:EPFR Global,HSBCFlows into the EM sector equity funds over the last

19、 month and 3 month average(%of AUM),0.6%0.4%,0.4%,1.1%,0.2%,0.2%,0.1%,0.1%,0.1%,0.1%,0.1%,0.1%,0.1%,0.1%,0.2%,0.0%,0.1%,0.1%,0.0%,-0.2%,0.0%,-0.4%-0.6%,-0.2%,-0.3%,-0.4%,-0.4%,-0.4%,-0.5%,-0.1%,-0.8%,-0.7%,GEM,All EM,Japan,Global Asia ex Western EMEA,USA,Lat-Am,Japan,Europe,Source:EPFR Global,HSBC,L

20、ast Month Flow(%of AuM),3 Month Av erage,Last Month Flow(%of AuM)Source:EPFR Global,HSBC,3 Month Av erage(RHS),4,Jan-04,Jan-06,Jan-08,Jan-10,Jan-12,Jan-04,Jan-06,Jan-08,Jan-10,Jan-12,Jan-04,Jan-06,Jan-08,Jan-10,Jan-12,Jan-12,Jan-04,Jan-06,Jan-08,Jan-10,Jan-12,Jan-04,Jan-06,Jan-08,Jan-10,Jan-12,Jan-0

21、4,Jan-06,Jan-08,Jan-10,Equity StrategyGlobal Emerging markets25 September 2012Monthly Flow(%of AuM),abc,All Equity Funds1.5%1.0%0.5%0.0%-0.5%-1.0%-1.5%-2.0%Monthly Flow(%of AuM)Source:EPFR Global,HSBCAsia ex Japan Equity Funds6.0%4.0%2.0%0.0%-2.0%-4.0%-6.0%Monthly Flow(%of AuM)Source:EPFR Global,HSB

22、C,All Emerging Market Equity Funds6.0%4.0%2.0%0.0%-2.0%-4.0%-6.0%Monthly Flow(%of AuM)Source:EPFR Global,HSBCLatin American Equity Funds15.0%10.0%5.0%0.0%-5.0%-10.0%-15.0%Monthly Flow(%of AuM)Source:EPFR Global,HSBC,GEM Equity Funds4.0%3.0%2.0%1.0%0.0%-1.0%-2.0%-3.0%Source:EPFR Global,HSBCEMEA Equit

23、y Funds10.0%5.0%0.0%-5.0%-10.0%Source:EPFR Global,HSBC,Monthly Flow(%of AuM)Monthly Flow(%of AuM),5,Jan-02,Jan-03,Jan-04,Jan-05,Jan-06,Jan-07,Jan-08,Jan-09,Jan-10,Jan-11,Jan-12,Oct-10,Jan-10,Jan-11,Oct-11,Apr-10,Apr-11,Jan-12,Apr-12,Jan-11,Jul-10,Jul-11,Jul-12,Jan-12,Jan-02,Jan-03,Jan-04,Jan-05,Jan-

24、06,Jan-07,Jan-08,Jan-09,Jan-10,Jan-11,Jan-12,Jan-02,Jan-03,Jan-04,Jan-05,Jan-06,Jan-07,Jan-08,Jan-09,Jan-10,Equity StrategyGlobal Emerging markets25 September 2012Cumulative flows to EM and DM equity funds(%of AuM),abc,Cumulative flows to the EM and DM equity funds since 200280%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%

25、0%-10%,Cumulative flows to the EM and DM equity funds since 201014%12%10%8%6%4%2%0%-2%-4%-6%,Emerging Market Fund TotalsSource:EPFR Global,HSBC,Dev eloped Market Fund Totals,Emerging Market Fund TotalsSource:EPFR Global,HSBC,Dev eloped Market Fund Totals,Cumulative flows to EM and DM equity funds sp

26、lit by ETFs and non-ETFs(%of AuM),ETFs600%500%400%300%200%100%0%,Non-ETFs50%40%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%,Emerging Market Fund Totals ETFSource:EPFR Global,HSBC,Dev eloped Market Fund Totals ETF,Emerging Market Fund Totals ex-ETFSource:EPFR Global,HSBC,Dev eloped Market Fund Totals ex-ETF,6,Jan-02,Jan-03,J

27、an-04,Jan-05,Jan-06,Jan-07,Jan-08,Jan-09,Jan-10,Jan-11,Jan-12,Oct-10,Jan-10,Jan-11,Oct-11,Jan-12,Jul-10,Jul-11,Apr-10,Apr-11,Apr-12,Jan-11,Jul-12,Jan-12,Jan-02,Jan-03,Jan-04,Jan-05,Jan-06,Jan-07,Jan-08,Jan-09,Jan-10,Jan-11,Jan-12,Jan-02,Jan-03,Jan-04,Jan-05,Jan-06,Jan-07,Jan-08,Jan-09,Jan-10,Equity

28、StrategyGlobal Emerging markets25 September 2012Cumulative flows into EM regional equity funds(%of AuM),abc,Cumulative flows into EM regional equity funds since 2002120%100%80%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%,Cumulative flows into EM regional equity funds since 201025%20%15%10%5%0%-5%-10%-15%-20%-25%,GEM Fund To

29、talsLatin America Fund TotalsSource:EPFR Global,HSBC,Asia ex-Japan Fund TotalsEMEA Fund Totals,GEM Fund TotalsLatin America Fund TotalsSource:EPFR Global,HSBC,Asia ex-Japan Fund TotalsEMEA Fund Totals,Cumulative flows into EM regional equity funds split by ETFs and non-ETFs(%of AuM),ETFs1000%800%600

30、%400%200%0%-200%,Non-ETFs80%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%,GEM Fund Totals ETFsLatin America Fund Totals ETFsSource:EPFR Global,HSBC,Asia ex-Japan Fund Totals ETFsEMEA Fund Totals ETFs,GEM Fund Totals ex-ETFLatin America Fund Totals ex-ETFSource:EPFR Global,HSBC,Asia ex-Japan Fund Totals ex-ETFEMEA Fund Totals

31、 ex-ETF,7,Jan-02,Jan-03,Jan-04,Jan-05,Jan-06,Jan-07,Jan-08,Jan-09,Jan-10,Jan-11,Jan-12,Oct-10,Oct-11,Jul-10,Jul-11,Jan-10,Apr-10,Jan-11,Apr-11,Jan-12,Apr-12,Jan-11,Jul-12,Jan-12,Jan-02,Jan-03,Jan-04,Jan-05,Jan-06,Jan-07,Jan-08,Jan-09,Jan-10,Jan-11,Jan-12,Jan-02,Jan-03,Jan-04,Jan-05,Jan-06,Jan-07,Jan

32、-08,Jan-09,Jan-10,Equity StrategyGlobal Emerging markets25 September 2012AuM of EM regional equity fundsAssets under management of EM regional equity funds since 2002600 USD bn5004003002001000,Assets under management of EM regional equity funds since 2010600 USD bn5004003002001000,abc,GEM Fund Total

33、sLatin America Fund TotalsSource:EPFR Global,HSBC,Asia ex-Japan Fund TotalsEMEA Fund Totals,GEM Fund TotalsLatin America Fund TotalsSource:EPFR Global,HSBC,Asia ex-Japan Fund TotalsEMEA Fund Totals,AuM of EM regional equity funds split by ETFs and non-ETFs,ETFs140 USD bn120100806040200,Non-ETFs450 U

34、SD bn400350300250200150100500,GEM Fund Totals ETFsLatin America Fund Totals ETFsSource:EPFR Global,HSBC,Asia ex-Japan Fund Totals ETFsEMEA Fund Totals ETFs,GEM Fund Totals ex-ETFLatin America Fund Totals ex-ETFSource:EPFR Global,HSBC,Asia ex-Japan Fund Totals ex-ETFEMEA Fund Totals ex-ETF,8,Equity S

35、trategyGlobal Emerging markets25 September 2012Thematic map showing the year-to-date flows(%of AuM)into the dedicated country equity fundsColour Legend,abc,-45%,-45.0%to-30.0%,-30.0%to-15.0%,-15.0%to 0.0%,0.0%to 15.0%,15.0%to 30.0%,30.0%to 45.0%,45.0%,Source:EPFR Global,HSBC9,Equity StrategyGlobal E

36、merging markets,abc,25 September 2012This page has been left blank intentionally10,Equity StrategyGlobal Emerging markets,abc,25 September 2012GEM fund positioning CEEMEA Lat-Am EM Asia GEM Sectors11,Equity StrategyGlobal Emerging markets25 September 2012GEM fund manager positioning in the GEM count

37、ries,abc,Country,MSCI Benchmarkweight(%),GEM Fund Mangerweight(%),Fund managerpositioning relative to,1 month change inrelative weight,3 month change inrelative weight,6 month change inrelative weight,12 month change inrelative weight,benchmark,BrazilChileChinaColombiaCzech RepublicEgyptHungaryIndia

38、IndonesiaMalaysiaMexicoPeruPhilippinesPolandRussiaSouth AfricaSouth KoreaTaiwanThailandTurkey,13.21.917.31.30.30.40.36.42.73.74.90.70.91.46.18.015.411.02.21.8,13.21.214.70.70.30.30.37.22.62.54.60.61.10.96.97.012.97.73.22.9,1.000.610.850.570.900.741.121.120.960.660.930.951.180.631.130.870.840.711.431

39、.62,-2%-2%-1%12%-4%2%-9%5%2%-3%-1%2%1%-1%3%-1%-3%-1%2%-1%,-2%-4%-5%-1%16%12%-1%6%4%15%8%-1%13%8%4%0%-1%-5%-1%-3%,-6%-7%-5%13%-15%-6%3%6%2%10%10%-14%20%21%5%0%2%0%-2%-1%,-3%5%-5%29%-30%-29%-6%11%-6%2%6%-7%14%0%7%-1%3%-2%-3%1%,CashOthers,2.61.1,Source:MSCI,EPFR Global,Thomson Reuters DataStream,HSBCTa

40、ble explained:Benchmark weight(A)represents the current weight of that particular country in the MSCI Emerging market index.GEM Fund Manger weight(B)represents the current allocation in the GEM equity funds.Fund Manager positioning relative to benchmark(C)=GEM Fund Manager weight(B)/Benchmark weight

41、(A).The four columns that follow to the right showing the change in relative weights are calculated using the changes in C over the respective time frames.Working example:Poland had 1.41%weight in the MSCI Emerging markets index while the EPFR GEM funds allocation is 0.89%.Therefore,the relative wei

42、ght is 0.89/1.41=0.63.Any relative weight below 1 signifies an underweight,above 1 an overweight and an exact 1 is neutral.-1%in the 1 month change columnsignifies that the relative weight of Poland was decreased to the current level of 0.63 from 0.64 over the last month.Therefore,the fund managers

43、have slightly increased their underweight position in Poland by 1%during August 2012.GEM Fund manager positioning in the GEMs sectors,Sector,MSCI Benchmarkweight(%),GEM Fund Mangerweight(%),Fund managerpositioning relative to,1 month change inrelative weight,3 month change inrelative weight,6 month

44、change inrelative weight,12 month change inrelative weight,benchmark,EnergyMaterialsIndustrialsConsumer DiscretionaryConsumer StaplesHealth CareFinancialsInformation TechnologyTelecom ServicesUtilities,12.911.76.78.18.61.324.913.78.33.8,11.89.57.010.39.12.124.313.47.12.4,0.910.821.051.271.061.650.98

45、0.970.850.62,0%2%5%0%2%3%0%-5%-7%1%,0%2%3%-3%6%14%-1%-4%1%8%,-2%-7%2%2%4%17%-1%-4%5%5%,4%-8%13%-9%2%11%-1%0%-5%-4%,CashOthers,2.60.3,Source:MSCI,EPFR Global,Thomson Reuters DataStream,HSBC12,SouthAfrica,SouthKorea,India,Indonesia,Poland,Russia,China,Thailand,Chile,Colombia,Brazil,Peru,CzechRepublic,

46、Philippines,Hungary,Egypt,Mexico,Malaysia,Taiwan,Turkey,SouthAfrica,OtherLat-Am,SouthKorea,Indonesia,India,Russia,Thailand,Poland,China,Brazil,GCC,CzechRepublic,Philippines,Malaysia,Hungary,Mexico,Taiwan,Turkey,Egypt,Discretionary,Technology,HealthCare,Information,Consumer,Financials,Consumer,Indust

47、rials,Materials,Telecom,Energy,Services,Staples,Utilities,Mar-96,Sep-96,Mar-97,Sep-97,Mar-98,Sep-98,Mar-99,Sep-99,Mar-00,Sep-00,Mar-01,Sep-01,Mar-02,Sep-02,Mar-03,Sep-03,Mar-04,Sep-04,Mar-05,Sep-05,Mar-06,Sep-06,Mar-07,Sep-07,Mar-08,Sep-08,Mar-09,Sep-09,Mar-10,Sep-10,Mar-11,Sep-11,Mar-12,Equity Stra

48、tegyGlobal Emerging markets25 September 2012GEM Equity Fund AllocationsCountry weights in GEM equity funds20%15%10%5%0%,HSBC country weightings21%14%7%0%,abc,Fund Manager Weight(%),MSCI Benchmark w eight(%),HSBC Recommended Weight(%),MSCI Benchmark w eight(%),Source:MSCI,EPFR Global,Thomson Reuters

49、DataStream,HSBCSector weights in GEM equity funds30.0%25.0%20.0%15.0%10.0%5.0%0.0%,Source:MSCI,Thomson Reuters DataStream,HSBCDispersion*in country allocation of the GEM equity funds A measure of country rotation0.80.70.60.50.40.30.20.10.0,Fund Manager Weight(%)Source:MSCI,EPFR Global,Thomson Reuter

50、s DataStream,HSBC,MSCI Benchmark w eight(%),GEM Equity Funds Allocation DispersionSource:EPFR Global,Thomson Reuters DataStream,HSBC,LT.Av erage(all history),*dispersion is calculated as the sum of squared deviations of the current weight of all countries from their three month averages13,Equity Str